First, lets address what has some commenters upset—the seeming victorious drive of the AFU toward Liman. Will Schryver discusses what’s going on in considerable detail, and posits a major shift coming: Please read the entire substack post, but here is the most directly relevant portion—relevant to the Liman situation but also to what’s coming:
Big Serge and The Human Fund have tweeted in the last hour or two—it’s 1pm EST—that the 58th Guards Army, with its 3 Motorized Rifle Divisions, has broken through to relieve Liman. So I think the last great Ukrainian offensive is over and the Russian reinforcements are starting to arrive. Big Serge reminds us also that those Russian reservists don’t have to be fully trained up before taking over garrisons inside Russia to relieve contract forces to be sent to the front now.
I’ve been watching videos of the reservists training—the men don’t look that impressive, but the amount of ammo and explosives they’re firing off, and the amount of vehicles and equipment they have definitely puts the lie to the claims that Russia is hurting for material.
The escalation potential of any dirty bomb incident is one of the most unsettling aspects I've heard of in this conflict. Kind of like the existential equivalent of the desperate loser move of keying someone's car..."if I can't have it, neither can you"...just with infinitely-higher stakes.
Found this very-solid overview of the conflict today. Nice mix of detail and big picture, from a guy who's not as overtly rah-rah as the folks at Moon or The Saker.
Good stuff.
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So Liman is Stalingrad-lite. Another Operation Uranus? History certainly rhymes don’t it...
Big Serge and The Human Fund have tweeted in the last hour or two—it’s 1pm EST—that the 58th Guards Army, with its 3 Motorized Rifle Divisions, has broken through to relieve Liman. So I think the last great Ukrainian offensive is over and the Russian reinforcements are starting to arrive. Big Serge reminds us also that those Russian reservists don’t have to be fully trained up before taking over garrisons inside Russia to relieve contract forces to be sent to the front now.
I’ve been watching videos of the reservists training—the men don’t look that impressive, but the amount of ammo and explosives they’re firing off, and the amount of vehicles and equipment they have definitely puts the lie to the claims that Russia is hurting for material.
Very informative...thank you.
The escalation potential of any dirty bomb incident is one of the most unsettling aspects I've heard of in this conflict. Kind of like the existential equivalent of the desperate loser move of keying someone's car..."if I can't have it, neither can you"...just with infinitely-higher stakes.
Found this very-solid overview of the conflict today. Nice mix of detail and big picture, from a guy who's not as overtly rah-rah as the folks at Moon or The Saker.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-war-has-just-begun?utm_source=email
Not sure if you mentioned this.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/if-russia-invades-ukraine-there-will-be-no-nord-stream-2-biden-says-2022-02-07/