Does it makes sense to do such an update? I think so—I think we’re starting to see the movement that’s been predicted for months. Putin is getting his ducks in a row. And there’s a common theme—miscalculation by the ruling class of the collective West.
Let’s start with a useful overall article at Moon of Alabama:
Lack Of Good Analyses Contributes To The Decline Of The 'West'
This is a pretty wide ranging article, but for our purposes I want to highlight Moon’s comments about underestimating Russia’s economic resilience. This comes from using an apples to oranges standard for comparing economies among countries around the world. The “common wisdom” going into the Western assault on Russia was that Russia is an economic basket case—a GDP the size of Netherlands or other small countries. Take your pick. The idea is that Russia radically underperforms. The problem with that view is that GDP is a very unreliable basis for comparison:
The assumptions behind these sanctions about the state of the Russian economy were completely wrong. Russia no longer had a low level economy. Yes, its GDP in dollar terms was much lower than those of most European states. But its GDP per capita measured at purchase power of the ruble was quite high. Russia's GDP also includes a much higher percentage of real production and a lower percentage of dubious 'services'. Its health care sector is 5.6% of its GDP. In the U.S. it is 16.7%, without creating a much better outcome. If one looks at Russia's production of steel, concrete and electricity per capita, things of real value, one can see that it is as much developed as other major middle income countries in Europe.
The sanctions not only failed but hit back at those who issued them. Just look at Europe's energy crisis. Due to the sanctions issued in 2014, when Russia reintegrated Crimea, it knew what was coming and had prepared for it. Within weeks the rubel went so high that the central bank intervened to lower it. 'Western' companies in Russia were quickly taken over or replaced by Russian ones. Trade with China and other non-western countries grew immensely. Russia's total GDP decline in 2022 will be 2.5-2.9%, not the 20+% some western 'experts' had predicted. Some of the European countries that issued the sanctions will have a much sharper decline.
Russia was and is rich. It produces lots of food and has all the natural resources it could wish for. Its economy is mostly self sufficient. Its population is well educated. It has the military means to defend itself. How anyone thought that Russia could be brought to its knees by sanctions is beyond me.
There are all sorts of details that could be debated, but the overall picture of a dramatic failure by the the West to understand the Russian economy is beyond dispute. Moon then goes on to discuss Western failures of analysis in military matters, as well.
Now, proceeding with the theme of Putin preparing for this war during the years following the American led coup in Ukraine (2014), that preparation is continuing. That includes mobilization of Russian productive capacity for the war effort, mobilization of manpower, training, marshalling of equipment in the required locations over a vast territory, etc. It also includes geopolitics. We pay attention to Russian - Chinese coordination, naturally. Russia’s close ties to India are also important in the building international support for Russia with regard to the West’s Ukraine proxy war. However, here are two additional international aspects worth discussing. The first we will only briefly note:
Russia To Supply Iran With 24 Advanced Sukhoi Fighter Jets
Starting a week ago reports began emerging in Middle East regional media, including in both Iranian and Israeli news sources, that Russia will soon provide Islamic Republic with dozens of Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. Israeli reports are even citing "Western intelligence officials" in making the claim.
Iranian state Tasnim wrote days ago that "Iran will soon receive 24 of the fourth-generation twin-engine, super-maneuverable fighter jets that are primarily used for air superiority missions," in what seems to be some level of confirmation.
The state-run outlet noted that Iran hasn't been able to acquire any new aircraft from outside countries in years, and the last time jets were transferred from Russia was in the 1990's.
This, I submit, is aimed at shoring up Russia’s extended southern flank—from Syria/Turkey across Azerbaijan and into Central Asia. The Russian - Iranian relationship is already having significant geopolitical and strategic successes, not only with regard to Saudi Arabia but also with NATO member Turkey:
Make no mistake about this development—it’s a significant Russian victory over NATO.
The second international area of focus is recent developments with regard to Russia - Belarus relations. While we in the West have always tended to view Belarus as simply an extension of Russia, that isn’t—or hasn’t been—entirely true (despite their closeness; nearly 3/4 of people in Belarus list Russian as their preferred language). The fact that the US and its vassals attempted a “color revolution” in Belarus shows that there is a distinction. Now, however, Belarus, after years of talks, has formerly entered into “union” status with Russia.
For the significance of this to the war in Ukraine, let’s first look at three maps of the Kaliningrad Oblast—the highly militarized Russian “exclave” on the Baltic, which is entirely surrounded by NATO countries (land borders exclusively with Poland and Lithuania, and railroad links to Russia blocked by Lithuania earlier this year).
The importance of Belarus should be apparent in at least two directions. Much in the news lately has been the possibility of a Russian advance south from western Belarus in the direction of Lviv (the Belarus military is probably too small to participate), to cut off Ukraine from Poland and the main conduit of military supplies. The other direction is toward Kaliningrad. Close Belarus cooperation helps Russian secure Kaliningrad, in the event of open hostilities with NATO. With that in mind, we turn—for the second time in three days—to analysis by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR.
The formalization of military and political cooperation between Russia and Belarus is a very big deal, and will certainly alter Polish thinking about Western Ukraine as well as Kaliningrad. It will also alter the thinking of NATO and of the US. Did I mention that Kaliningrad is highly militarized?
Kaliningrad: Russia’s Military Stronghold Deep in NATO territory Simulates Nuke Missile Strikes
The Iskandar missiles that were tested in May, 2022, are nuclear-capable and have a range of up to 300 miles. That covers most of Poland. Kaliningrad also has advanced radar facilities and other missiles that would render the Baltic a no-go zone for NATO. In the event of open war, doing something about Kaliningrad would be a top NATO priority. It’s also easy to see why Russia would not want to be distracted by threats against Kaliningrad while deeply occupied in Ukraine. This is where Belarus comes into play:
The visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Minsk on Monday, accompanied by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, turned out to be immensely consequential for European security.
Putin … revealed in an undertone the dramatic decision that Russia will provide a de facto “nuclear umbrella” to Belarus. …
“… For example, the United States have conducted similar activities with their NATO allies for decades. These coordinated measures are extremely important in view of the tensions at the external borders of the Union State [Russia and Belarus.]”
Moscow has long voiced concern over the US keeping nuclear weapons in Europe and providing to NATO allies the technical capability to deliver nuclear warheads with nuclear-certified fighters. Air forces from across NATO regularly exercise nuclear deterrence capabilities.
In fact, disregarding the current heightened tensions, the NATO held a “routine, recurring training activity” through the fortnight from October 17 to 30 in an exercise over north-western Europe involving 14 countries and up to 60 aircraft of various types, including fourth and fifth generation fighter jets, as well as surveillance and tanker aircraft, and as in previous years, US B-52 long-range bombers flying from Barksdale Air Base in Louisiana.
Russia kept protesting against such brazen acts by the US and NATO in violation of the 1970 Treaty on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation, which aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology. Apparently, the Kremlin has decided to react to the US belligerence, even if modestly and somewhat apologetically.
Actually, Russia - Belarus cooperation goes well beyond provision of a nuclear umbrella. Belarus air force pilots are being trained to “deliver” nuclear weapons and Belarus air defense has been upgraded with advanced S-400 missiles. Iskandar missiles are now, also, stationed in Belarus.
Ducks in a row?
We are starting to see signs of increased Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, including increased attacks on the Ukrainian air defense system (which relies on NATO direction from outside Ukraine’s borders). The usual counter battery work is continuing, reducing limited supplies of Western systems:
and, now, what look like probing attacks, south to north:
The New Year promises to be eventful. For all readers, my hopes that it won’t be too “interesting”.
Howard Beale: "The world is a corporation."
46 years ago. So prescient:
https://youtu.be/35DSdw7dHjs
6'18"
Masterly summary. I've been scouring my mind to think of the last time a nation/alliance got this badly beaten at diplomacy as the collective West has been in the last month or two. Maybe Soviet Russia and the Nazi-Soviet Pact, or Bismarck luring France into a war they couldn't win. As you say, Mark, the Russians really are getting the ducks lined up. The Turkey situation in particular is pretty amazing. Lavrov, Putin and Medvedev have forced Erdogan to accept reality in Syria and have created a vast amount of insecurity at Nato HQ.