That’s the report we’re getting from the ueber-Neocon Institute for the Study of War (ISW is run by the Kagan/Nuland combine; cf. Who We Are), so one assumes the report is pretty authoritative:
Who ever heard of a military taking a week off to “reevaluate tactics” of a successful offense? Me neither. This comes amid continuing reports of catastrophic Ukrainian losses of men and equipment—and the failure of Ukrainian forces to get anywhere near even the first Russian defensive line.
Popular Russian commentators add further claims:
"An observation: Where initially, during the first phase of the counteroink, we saw primarily dead bodies and burnt-out Ukrainian armoured vehicles, we are now increasingly seeing and getting reports of sizable POW captures.
The Ukrainian morale is cracking after encountering stiff Russian resistance. It is something to behold when the defending side daily reports capturing prisoners. Not something I expected so soon."
(Via Slaviangrad)
"We talked with fresh Ukrainian prisoners taken by our fighters in the Zaporozhye direction during the would-be counteroffensive. To summarize, the enemy has problems with control and lack of coordination between units, refusals to go on the attack and low morale after the burning German "Leopards", in addition, the prisoners complain about intelligence (in fact, ordinary storm troopers simply do not get a real picture of the state of our defense and lie, underestimating our capabilities so that they are not afraid to go into meat assaults.)" via
The point about problems with control and coordination mirrors what I’ve heard from various military analysts, that Ukraine has no experience in conducting large unit operations, only in relatively small unit operations. That lack of experience was one of the primary reasons—beyond lack of air cover, etc.—that analysts predicted the offensive would fail disastrously. Another factor in the reported “pause” may have to do with Russia’s attack on a key Ukrainian command HQ. These HQ’s are key to the Ukraine war effort, because they provide access to NATO (read US) intelligence that, in turn, provides overall battlefield intelligence, including targeting information. It’s easy to imagine that destruction of such an HQ (probably including NATO personnel) could fore a pause in an offensive.
In the meantime Russia is shifting to the offensive—but not in Zaporozhye. The offensive is occurring in the northeast in the Kharkov direction as well as near the key Donbass city of Marinka. This has been confirmed by the Ukrainian MOD:
The Russian army has pulled up reserves and launched an active offensive in the Limansky and Kupyansky directions, - the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
The situation in the east is now difficult, the Russian Armed Forces are striving to reach the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, said Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine A. Malyar.
Russian troops are trying to seize the initiative. They have pulled up their forces and carry out an active offensive. A high activity of shelling is recorded, fierce battles continue, she stressed.
The Russian army has pulled up reserves and launched an active offensive in the Limansky and Kupyansky directions, - the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
Their reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation:
In the Krasno-Limansky direction, the aviation and artillery group "Otvazhnye" defeated the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlement. Kuzmino and Makeevka of the LPR, as well as in the Serebryansky forestry.
In areas of n.p. Yampolovka DPR, Chervonaya Dibrova and Kremennaya LPR stopped the activities of 3 DRGs.
During the day, up to 105 militants, 2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 armored vehicles, 2 pickup trucks, 2 Gvozdika self-propelled guns, D-20 and D-30 howitzers were destroyed in the direction.
On the Kupyansky direction in the area of the settlement Timkovka, Kharkov region, helicopters, artillery and attacks by units of the "Western" group of forces per day destroyed up to 45 militants, 3 armored vehicles, 4 cars, the Polish self-propelled guns "Krab". The activity of 2 DRGs was suppressed. http://t.me/RVvoenkor
We shall see. Before turning to China, I’ll embed to Youtube videos that provide intelligent discussion of the war. The first features Napolitano and Daniel Davis and the second (which I got from Andrei Martyanov’s blog) features a retired Indian general. Both of these military analysts agree that Ukraine’s offensive simply has no prospects for success.
Now, China.
Blinken has returned from Beijing. His trip was apparently part of the months long Neocon effort to induce China to speak to US officials, including military to military contacts. The Chinese did allow Blinken to speak with Xi. The Chinese summary was predictable:
@SpokespersonCHN
China always hopes to see a sound and steady China-U.S. relationship and believes that the two major countries can overcome various difficulties and find the right way to get along based on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.
4:57 AM · Jun 19, 2023
President Xi called on the U.S. side to adopt a rational and pragmatic attitude, and work with China in the same direction.
For his part, Blinken says he assured the Chinese that—all appearances to the contrary notwithstanding—the US still upholds the One China Policy. This has, in the circumstances of over the top anti-China rhetoric and provocative actions by the US over virtually the entire term of the Zhou regime looks like a humiliating climbdown. If you view the video (which I can’t embed), Blinken’s statement could have been written by the Chinese foreign ministry:
Clandestine
@WarClandestine
1) Interesting
Secretary of State Blinken just returned from his visit with Chinese President Xi, and he claims the Biden regime do NOT support Taiwan independence.
A quick turnaround from Biden’s promise to use US troops to defend Taiwan from China in September, 2022.
Despite Blinken’s grovel—which humiliation could have been avoided by a sensible diplomacy from the start—the Chinese, having repeated their usual rhetoric, also gave Tony the back of the hand, to go with the no-red-carpet treatment:
Clearly the Zhou regime’s early attempts to bully China and to unilaterally revise Taiwan policy have led to an enduring lack of trust on the part of the Chinese.
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There are also rumours from the Alex chaps that Nuland will be promoted to deputy. Sec of State in the State Dept. This is scary because she is an unhinged neocon wingnut who will push for massive escalation. However, it might be a good thing because it will bring her more into the limelight and give the Great American Public a closer look at this evil individual.
This is a bit like the NYT's headline about the offensive "faltering". How does something that is already stationary falter? As for Blinken, he might be genuinely trying to kiss and make up with China, but it's more likely that he's trying to drive a wedge between them and Russia. He'll fail on both counts.
There are also rumours from the Alex chaps that Nuland will be promoted to deputy. Sec of State in the State Dept. This is scary because she is an unhinged neocon wingnut who will push for massive escalation. However, it might be a good thing because it will bring her more into the limelight and give the Great American Public a closer look at this evil individual.
This is a bit like the NYT's headline about the offensive "faltering". How does something that is already stationary falter? As for Blinken, he might be genuinely trying to kiss and make up with China, but it's more likely that he's trying to drive a wedge between them and Russia. He'll fail on both counts.