Ukraine: The Inflection Point Becomes Clearer
Over the past several weeks I’ve referred to the emergence of an inflection point—a corner soon to be turned, if you will, in the collective West’s war on Russia, its war for global dominance. Of course, this has, in a military sense, always been the US war on Russia for global US dominance, enforcement of US rules on global order that is mandatory for all nations. The European nations were suckered into this conflict on promises of a quick resolution that would yield important economic benefits. However, no combination of European nations would have dared to enter upon this mad venture but for the US dragging them into it. Well, a few countries—the UK and Poland chief among them—were enthusiastic poodles in this crazy undertaking. The main point remains. But for US Neocon strategery there would be no war on Russia.
It is now becoming ever more apparent that the wheels are coming off this war on Russia—on the local battlefield level, on the regional level, and on up to the global geopolitical level. The economic shock and awe that was supposed to lead in short order to the collapse of the Russian economy and dismemberment of the Russian Federation fell on its face from the start. The military proxy campaign in Ukraine—as is now apparent—may be nearing a catastrophic endgame. And US attempts to strong arm other significant geopolitical players into isolating Russia—China, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and more—is also failing in plain sight. Let’s consider a few aspects of this.
If, as it increasingly appears, this war of aggression on Russia turns out to lead to the disintegration of NATO and the revelation of US military vulnerablity—short of a nuclear exchange—who in the US will own this fiasco? Bear in mind, this episode marks the finale to two decades and more of imperial overreach. You could say that it all began with the Clinton eastward expansion of NATO into Poland (other countries were invovled, but I would argue that the Polish angle has been historically crucial), quickly followed by the US led NATO onslaught against Serbia—a traditional Russian ally. It went on steroids following 9/11—initially triumphant but ultimately resulting in the huge expansion of Iranian influence and the calamitous pullout from Afghanistan.
Those slow motion defeats continue, with the addition of Turkey adopting a largely independent foreign policy in defiance of the US rules. All political factions within the US establishment that share any signficant amount of power also bear responsibility, but the caption ‘Neocon’ handily sums it up. There are two more years to a presidential something or other—here in the US we call them ‘elections’—so there’s plenty of time for blowback to reach even the hinterlands. Americans aren’t used to being laughingstocks, or defeated. Our national narrative doesn’t allow for that. How this shakes out in terms of domestic politics is anybody’s guess as far as the details go, but it’s likely to be ugly—even if it proves to be a beneficial tonic for the long run. That will depend on whether Americans have any appetite for a good old fashioned examination of conscience.
In Europe, of course, the usual discord has broken out, fueled by the looming economic collapse. Poland—emboldened by its position as a junior, non-English speaking, partner in the Anglosphere—has led the way in terms of rhetorical attacks and threats directed at its ‘allies.’ Germans, of course, are becoming aware that their ‘allies’ cut them off from their Russian gas supply. I expect, as winter deepens, that Germans will forget their own feckless role in this fiasco and will start looking for ways to mend fences with Russia and be damned to the Brits and Poles. Italy, under a rebellious conservative/populist/nationalist government is seeking ways to free itself from the WEF/EU yoke, and has chosen a confrontational relationship with France to serve that purpose. If that policy succeeds then, despite Meloni’s protestations of undying loyalty to NATO, the likelihood is that Italy’s role will decline in some way analogous to that of Turkey, as Italy could become an energy clearinghouse for Europe. Finally, European complaints over obvious US profiteering and lack of concern for European interests are growing louder—as documented recently by Politico-EU. This speaks volumes regarding the waste of space that is what passes for a ruling class in Europe, as well as their reflexive dishonesty. Did they really think the US would behave differently, with Victoria ‘F*ck the EU’ Nuland running foreign policy? Only if they gambled on a quick Russian collapse, an eventuality which was always based in wishful ‘thinking’. What were they thinking? The answer, of course, is: They weren’t. Expect the US—and Russia—to ultimately look to their own interests going forward. Any deals Europe makes in either direction will feature hard nosed, take it or leave it, negotiations.
Moving on up to the global geopolitical level, signs of a crackup are also growing. Two articles today raise this issue from slightly different standpoints, but it’s all complementary. First is Alex Krainer’s substack commentary on the recent Trilateral Commission (part of D. Rockefeller’s legacy) meeting in Tokyo:
Huge new cracks appear in the empire's edifice
The very foundations of the "rules-based global order" seem to be collapsing
Krainer first points out how extraordinary this meeting was, in that—for the first time ever—outside observers were allowed into a Trilateral Commission meeting. What those observers witnessed was nothing less than open rancor being directed at the policies—and, in reality, even the concept—of the American rules based order. I don’t think that’s an exaggeration. Krainer:
On Saturday, 19 November the secretive Trilateral Commission held a meeting in Tokyo. For the first time in the organization's 50 years, the press – three reporters from Nikkei Asia – were allowed to witness the proceedings …, what they reported was remarkable, showing that cracks are appearing in the very foundation of the empire, a.k.a. the “rules-based global order.”
Rahm Emanuel, the US Ambassador to Japan delivered his remarks in a speech titled, "Democracy vs. autocracy: You are going to see 2022 as an inflection point in the success of democracy." It was a serving of all the usual globalist talking points, but it seems that the Asian delegates weren’t too impressed. A former Japanese official challenged Emanuel: "What is the ambassador saying? We must engage China. If we force countries to choose sides, the Southeast Asian nations will choose China. The key is not to force them to choose."
A veteran member from the Philippines said, "When two elephants fight to the death, we will all be dead. And the question is, what for?" Commission's executive committee member and next director of the Asia Pacific Group Masahisa Ikeda said, "We feel that the U.S. policy toward Asia, especially toward China has been narrow-minded and unyielding..."
Although the language of the discussions was diplomatic, it was clear that Asian delegates largely reject the American policy towards Asia. Overall, the gathering was described as "nervous that the world is heading in the wrong direction," that "the problem is America" and that "It's the U.S. penchant for exporting its ideology that is the main concern for many."
This war is all about energy, right? So, this article provides an excellent analysis of the emerging shape of Eurasia. Please note the strong relations between India and Russia. Add to that the growing cooperation—political, economic, and military—of Turkey and Iran with Russia and the rapidly emerging importance of a development we’ve discussed previously at some lenth—the International North South Transport Corridor:
Russia’s Energy Geopolitics With China & India
November 30, 2022 NEWS
The top takeaways from this analysis are several.
First, Russia’s energy geopolitics with China and India are mutually beneficial.
Second, China’s energy diversification strategy is being balanced out by India’s insatiable appetite for discounted Russian resources.
Third, India is rapidly replacing China as Russia’s top partner.
Fourth, neither the aforesaid nor the ongoing Sino-American discussions over a New Détente are zero-sum for Moscow or Beijing.
And finally, a new global strategic balance is emerging.
As Krainer implicitly argues, other important Asian nations are well aware of the dynamics involved in this emerging global strategic balance, and they see the US as part of the problem, not the solution. It’s the American pursuit of global hegemony that angers them. Please follow the link.
As for the situation on the ground in Ukraine …
As the world awaits the Russian winter offensive, Russian forces appear on the verge of a significant victory at Bakhmut—a fortified town in Donbass. The months long battle at Bakhmut appears to be resolving into something like the lengthy battle for Mariupol, with Russia having almost completed an encirclement. Russia has warned the defenders to surrender—or else. NATO/Ukraine has responded by attempting to insert some of its best remaining troops into Bakhmut—a mad strategy.
This is happening in the context of the US continuing to promise more and more weapons systems to Ukraine—but that check will be in the mail until next year. In the meantime destruction and casualties for Ukraine, and its allies, continue to balloon. Ursula von der Leyen let that one slip today, in a video that the EU is desperately trying to claw back. Von der Leyen essentially confirmed the accuracy of Russian accounting of casualties. Also, note that the number of wounded likely runs at several times the number of those killed (more than 100k), and that the number of missing is enormous as well:
Finally, I want to address the chatter surrounding supposed Polish intentions. From the outset of this war Russian sources have played up supposed Polish intentions to reoccupy four oblasts in Western Ukraine that Poland had captured from the USSR in 1920. On the one hand, I don’t doubt that there are nationalist elements—not insignificant—in Poland who would very much like to do this. On the other hand, it seems insane to me. Western Ukraine is the stronghold of the Ukro-Nazis and Banderites. Ukrainians in this are have, for centuries, resisted the choice of incorporation into either Russia or Poland. One can imagine modern day Banderites saying, ‘Wait a minute! What did we slaughter all those hundreds of thousands of Jews and Poles for, if we’re simply going to be betrayed to Poland again?’ I believe any such partition of Ukraine would simply lead to intractable irregular warfare, for which Poland is woefully unprepared.
More to the point, I can’t imagine Russia acceding to such a partition. On a purely impressionistic level one only has to compare the Polish and Russian anthems to see the problem. The Polish anthem is an exhortation to reclaim with the sabre lands that were lost to foreign powers—this is an historical reference to the Polish Legion’s major role in the Napoleonic invasion of Russia. Russians are very much aware of that, as also of the Polish post WW1 war to reclaim those same lands, in which Poles never constituted more than 1/3 of the population. Now listen to the current Russian anthem and ask yourself whether any Russian government would accede to Poland—allied with the US and, worse, the Brits—violently seizing those lands. I say no.
So what’s going on here? I suspect a Russian disinformation operation aimed to enflame both the Russian public—the war isn’t just against brother Ukrainians but against a Polish drive for empire on Russian lands—as well as Ukrainians. Presumably Ukrainians are being asked to chose between Russia and Poland again. Personally, I think Ukrainians for the most part would reconcile themselves to choosing Russia. Please note that, on closer examination, most if not all of this speculation can be traced back quite directly to Russian intelligence sources:
I note that Polish comments to such threads that I’ve seen call this narrative out as trolling and laughable. Further, Poles are probably not inclined to transform their country into one which would be close to 1/3 Ukrainian.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/washington-supreme-court-makes-kendis-butterknife-the-law-of-the-land/
Will Schryver
@imetatronink
I submit the EU is Germany, who no longer wants the job as herd boss for the exotic menagerie in the European barnyard.
I continue to predict Germany will turn east. It will kiss and make up with Russia, deal with China, and become the westernmost node of Mackinder's Nightmare.