It seems now that the prevailing wisdom is that the American proxy war on Russia (via Ukraine) is all over—except for the shouting, of which one expects substantial amounts. Friday Seymour Hersh presented a fantasy view of the type of negotiations the US Deep State would like to see. Everyone had a good laugh. But now let’s look at some more serious perspectives. First we’ll present a more sober view (than that peddled by Hersh) of what the Neocons hope to get away with. It’s presented by Prof. Nicolai Petro, a political scientist from Rhode Island University who specializes in Russian matters. Overall, I rate it as a sober presentation, but a bridge too far. The full video, which is actually the second half of a longer one, runs a little over a half an hour. I have edited this excerpt to make it more readable:
Will Schryver hits the high notes on this one: The US empire is going down, but will be with a whimper or a bang? As for the rest, nothing we didn't know already: the neocons lost again and Putin is going to twist the knife as much as possible. On to the next project!
I certainly hope that this will be their final lot, ML. However, I think more that they are just supremely arrogant and out of touch with reality. I work in places full of such people. It's truly scary.
I don’t see how a first strike by the U.S. is politically feasible, even with the current administration. Andrei Martyanov Article that Mark added. I agree with his ABM comments.
The impotent Empire of Debt & Lies (ED&L), is morally, ethically, and financially bankrupt, lacking in industrial might. Russia has domestic industrial capacities that have been increased, ED&L has no such capacity. When V. V. Putin said matter of factly that the new Russian weapons were based on "new physics", he was not bluffing, fibbing or exaggerating. Russia has won, I can hardly wait to see ED&L's evil war criminal neocons get what they so richly deserve.
The Scott Ritter article ignores the issue of the growing China’s Nuke capability and the horrible state of the U.S. ABM defenses. And the issue of the reliability of the aging U.S. Nukes. Many materials degrade with age, and due to environmental issues, can’t be manufactured. So new replacements are needed, and the original documentation was lacking, and the original people that developed it in the 50’s and 60’s are gone.
And the challenge of growing nuclear weapon proliferation.
And no mention of the Mx missile.
My view is the U.S. usually got out negotiated in the arms control treaties by Russia, and China was ignored.
Ritter's expertise is in arms control treaties. We don't have any special treaties with China. However, while I've forgotten the details, I read an article recently that stated as a matter of fact that China's nuke capabilities were a rung below the US and Russia. As for ignoring other issues:
Aging US nukes was at the heart of the article, even in the first paragraph:
On Nov. 1, the U.S. Air Force was forced to explosively “terminate” the flight test of a "Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). This meant blowing it up in the air after it exhibited unspecified in-flight anomalies to engineers monitoring its progress."
"The failures of the aging U.S. and British strategic nuclear deterrence force contrasts sharply with a series of successful tests carried out by the Russian counterparts ..."
How is that ignoring aging and unreliable nukes?
Mx was retired in 2005--why would Ritter mention it?
Keep also in mind a dramatically accelerating gap between the US and Russia in anti air/missile defense, especially against the background of astonishing performance of air defense systems in SMO, which provides crucial boost in the development of already vastly superior Russian AD/ABM systems with S-500 and S-550 being in serial production. Those systems are also the part of the equation because now they are beginning to have a massive mitigating effect on any plans on first decapitating strike by the US on Russia. In simple words, these system and those which are coming soon can blunt dramatically effect of any attack on Russia. The US has nothing comparable to that and is, obviously, lagging dramatically in hypersonic weapons. Read the whole piece by Scott, it is excellent, and this growing gap may open a possibility for a suicidal act from the US when it finally grasps what I am on record for years--the arms race is lost and the technological gap is absolutely massive.
Mx missile was supposed to be a replacement for the minuteman 3 missiles with ability to move from silo to silo to prevent a first strike by Russia.
Some were bought, but just placed in minuteman silos which did not eliminate the vulnerability.
And then phased out due to an arms control treaty.
The aging issue is more than just being old, but the material issue. Plus the technology is so outdated.
Just like the B-52’s still in service 60+ years running, part of the third leg of the nuclear triad.
And from what I read, the reorganization of the U.S. Air Force nuke area , strategic air command, with a culture of zero tolerance on nuke stuff to being integrated with the rest of the air force led to a lot of problems.
Ritter mentioned the ABM issue in passing.
China’s nukes and missile abilities are growing, but are not part of any treaty. It’s unknown the actual size of their nuke force.
I see no awareness by the uniparty of how bad the technology military gap is due to hubris and believing their own propaganda.
They are too focused on:
- correct pronoun usage
- fighting the threat of White Supremacy
- getting their 10%
- destroying those deplorable maga insurrectionists.
- making sure they toe the party line so they are not compromised/ destroyed by the party enforcers.
Knowing the pervasive corruption throughout the USSA, why wouldn't The Powers That Be (TPTB) fail to maintain the Nuclear Weapons in order to save a few bucks and rip off the US Taxpayers?
Hell, in their minds the Nukes would never be used anyway so why not pocket the cash?
Knowing the neocons, it was probably pure arrogance. They thought History ended in 1991 and that their supremacy was permanent. No way those backward Russians or smelly Chinese could develop better weapons than us!
I forgot something. I should have also said “And thank you Vlad Putin”. Thus far he has done exactly what he said he was going to do. I will bet we can depend on that.
We’re all hopeful and pessimistic at the same time. To me, the main thing is we’re developing a groundwork to start on. Mark has given a start and the first comments build on it. How dismal things have looked for months. Now we have something to work with and to work on. Thank you Mark!
“That new reality is multi polarity—make trade, not war.”
Make trade? The empire takes, not trades. We are screwed. Trade with what? Manufactured good? Nope. We don’t do that anymore. Natural resources / commodities? Don’t do that either, bad for the climate. Intellectual / scientific advances? We graduate trans woke ideologues nowadays. I know, we can trade treasury bills, debt and complicated financial instruments. We have plenty of that, but the demand seems to be diminishing. It takes a long time to dismantle and manage the decline of an empire, but it can be done. We are witness to it.
I doubt Trump will be allowed anywhere near the reins of power, and if he does get in, he will be unable to force through any sane policies. We are still hoping that a Man on a White Horse will come to save us. There is plenty of hope but it comes rather through whatever emerges from the break up of the current global system, not via any individual.
I hope Russia and BRICS does end up with Ukraine. So many of the wests bankers and gangsters have been over there slobbering on each other about who will get what’s left of Ukraine. It will be delicious to see them end up with nothing.
Will Schryver hits the high notes on this one: The US empire is going down, but will be with a whimper or a bang? As for the rest, nothing we didn't know already: the neocons lost again and Putin is going to twist the knife as much as possible. On to the next project!
These people seem to have a craving for defeat and humiliation. What was it Freud said about repetition?
I certainly hope that this will be their final lot, ML. However, I think more that they are just supremely arrogant and out of touch with reality. I work in places full of such people. It's truly scary.
I hear ya, as Cardigan would say!
I don’t see how a first strike by the U.S. is politically feasible, even with the current administration. Andrei Martyanov Article that Mark added. I agree with his ABM comments.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/12/good-piece-from-scott.html
The impotent Empire of Debt & Lies (ED&L), is morally, ethically, and financially bankrupt, lacking in industrial might. Russia has domestic industrial capacities that have been increased, ED&L has no such capacity. When V. V. Putin said matter of factly that the new Russian weapons were based on "new physics", he was not bluffing, fibbing or exaggerating. Russia has won, I can hardly wait to see ED&L's evil war criminal neocons get what they so richly deserve.
The Scott Ritter article ignores the issue of the growing China’s Nuke capability and the horrible state of the U.S. ABM defenses. And the issue of the reliability of the aging U.S. Nukes. Many materials degrade with age, and due to environmental issues, can’t be manufactured. So new replacements are needed, and the original documentation was lacking, and the original people that developed it in the 50’s and 60’s are gone.
And the challenge of growing nuclear weapon proliferation.
And no mention of the Mx missile.
My view is the U.S. usually got out negotiated in the arms control treaties by Russia, and China was ignored.
Ritter's expertise is in arms control treaties. We don't have any special treaties with China. However, while I've forgotten the details, I read an article recently that stated as a matter of fact that China's nuke capabilities were a rung below the US and Russia. As for ignoring other issues:
Aging US nukes was at the heart of the article, even in the first paragraph:
On Nov. 1, the U.S. Air Force was forced to explosively “terminate” the flight test of a "Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). This meant blowing it up in the air after it exhibited unspecified in-flight anomalies to engineers monitoring its progress."
"The failures of the aging U.S. and British strategic nuclear deterrence force contrasts sharply with a series of successful tests carried out by the Russian counterparts ..."
How is that ignoring aging and unreliable nukes?
Mx was retired in 2005--why would Ritter mention it?
ABM was outside the scope of the article, but Andrei Martyanov quotes Ritter and supplements: http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/12/good-piece-from-scott.html
Keep also in mind a dramatically accelerating gap between the US and Russia in anti air/missile defense, especially against the background of astonishing performance of air defense systems in SMO, which provides crucial boost in the development of already vastly superior Russian AD/ABM systems with S-500 and S-550 being in serial production. Those systems are also the part of the equation because now they are beginning to have a massive mitigating effect on any plans on first decapitating strike by the US on Russia. In simple words, these system and those which are coming soon can blunt dramatically effect of any attack on Russia. The US has nothing comparable to that and is, obviously, lagging dramatically in hypersonic weapons. Read the whole piece by Scott, it is excellent, and this growing gap may open a possibility for a suicidal act from the US when it finally grasps what I am on record for years--the arms race is lost and the technological gap is absolutely massive.
Mx missile was supposed to be a replacement for the minuteman 3 missiles with ability to move from silo to silo to prevent a first strike by Russia.
Some were bought, but just placed in minuteman silos which did not eliminate the vulnerability.
And then phased out due to an arms control treaty.
The aging issue is more than just being old, but the material issue. Plus the technology is so outdated.
Just like the B-52’s still in service 60+ years running, part of the third leg of the nuclear triad.
And from what I read, the reorganization of the U.S. Air Force nuke area , strategic air command, with a culture of zero tolerance on nuke stuff to being integrated with the rest of the air force led to a lot of problems.
Ritter mentioned the ABM issue in passing.
China’s nukes and missile abilities are growing, but are not part of any treaty. It’s unknown the actual size of their nuke force.
I see no awareness by the uniparty of how bad the technology military gap is due to hubris and believing their own propaganda.
They are too focused on:
- correct pronoun usage
- fighting the threat of White Supremacy
- getting their 10%
- destroying those deplorable maga insurrectionists.
- making sure they toe the party line so they are not compromised/ destroyed by the party enforcers.
I'm not getting your point.
Yes nukes are aging and we're aware of it, however what's being done?
Yes we've been technologically overtaken, again, what's to be done?
I'm not trying to put this all on you.
I think we all know that by Hook or by Crook the USSA is going to be Fortress America as the Founders intended.
Anyway, you're running the most interesting blog on the internet.
Thanks!
You're welcome!
I've been thinking about this.
Knowing the pervasive corruption throughout the USSA, why wouldn't The Powers That Be (TPTB) fail to maintain the Nuclear Weapons in order to save a few bucks and rip off the US Taxpayers?
Hell, in their minds the Nukes would never be used anyway so why not pocket the cash?
Knowing the neocons, it was probably pure arrogance. They thought History ended in 1991 and that their supremacy was permanent. No way those backward Russians or smelly Chinese could develop better weapons than us!
Did anyone read Robert "Supreme Leader" Kagan's piece in WAPO today?
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/trump-dictator-2024-election-robert-kagan/
It's delicious.
I wish I could create a blurb to do it justice but I can't.
Victoria Nuland's "better" half... choke choke choke.
Lots of projection.
I forgot something. I should have also said “And thank you Vlad Putin”. Thus far he has done exactly what he said he was going to do. I will bet we can depend on that.
And thank you to him for fighting the cultural war too. Zero tolerance for the LGBT lunacy over there.
Thus far he has done exactly what he said he was going to do.
Refreshing.
We’re all hopeful and pessimistic at the same time. To me, the main thing is we’re developing a groundwork to start on. Mark has given a start and the first comments build on it. How dismal things have looked for months. Now we have something to work with and to work on. Thank you Mark!
“That new reality is multi polarity—make trade, not war.”
Make trade? The empire takes, not trades. We are screwed. Trade with what? Manufactured good? Nope. We don’t do that anymore. Natural resources / commodities? Don’t do that either, bad for the climate. Intellectual / scientific advances? We graduate trans woke ideologues nowadays. I know, we can trade treasury bills, debt and complicated financial instruments. We have plenty of that, but the demand seems to be diminishing. It takes a long time to dismantle and manage the decline of an empire, but it can be done. We are witness to it.
"That is why there will be now sneaking away allowed"
I think the word 'now' should be 'no'.
Love your work. :)
Cheers
I doubt Trump will be allowed anywhere near the reins of power, and if he does get in, he will be unable to force through any sane policies. We are still hoping that a Man on a White Horse will come to save us. There is plenty of hope but it comes rather through whatever emerges from the break up of the current global system, not via any individual.
I hope Russia and BRICS does end up with Ukraine. So many of the wests bankers and gangsters have been over there slobbering on each other about who will get what’s left of Ukraine. It will be delicious to see them end up with nothing.