Most of what's coming out of Ukraine now is noise and not signal. Two things of note have happened.
1.) Wagner has been pulled out of Bakhmut. They are fought out, and Prigozhin may have run to the end of tolerance with MOD. The Ukrainians are retaking some amount of ground around the city, probably to clean up their lines of communication. This is not, repeat not, the much ballyhooed Ukrainian offensive.
2.) Ukraine has gathered an operational reserve and is now capable of offensive action. It does not follow from this that an offensive is imminent, or even planned. They may prefer to use that reserve to counter Russia's next move and take the offensive after Russia uses up their own operational reserve (And they have one) in their next offensive. To quote from my old Tactics II wargame (The old Charles Roberts design that launched modern wargaming) "The decision to commit reserves is among the most crucial and far reaching of all military moves" How Russia and Ukraine use theirs will determine the future course of this war. Very few people know, and they aren't telling.
One further observation. Outlandish propaganda claims continue on both sides. Regard all news out of Ukraine as fake until proven otherwise. My recent favorite was the claim that a Patriot missile had destroyed one of those Russian hypersonic jobs. That Patriot was launched from Snake Island, and the Ghost of Kiev threw the switch on it.
1) Wagner has not pulled out--as of yesterday. Prigozhin is only a front man, has no operational control. Wagner is under Surovikin and regular chain of command.
2) Doubtful that Ukraine is capable of actual offenseive--only limited tactical actions as seen. Training for the so-called reserve has been very limited and is outnumbered by and less well equipped than the Russians.
The best information I have seen is that Wagner is going back to operating mainly in Africa and the Middle East. I think that the war is entering a new phase and that Russia is preparing an offensive of its own, one that will be undertaken mainly by the Russian regular army. By now the Russians have had to refit units that have been in extensive combat and to train troops that have been called up. We'll see what form that new offensive eventually takes.
Prigozhin, Strelkov and others have been saying for some time that Ukraine has created additional units. They have no incentive to deceive anyone about this. How well Ukraine's new units are equipped, trained, and led I can't say, but to dismiss the threat out of hand is something no responsible commander would ever do. My guess (Guess!) is that whatever they have they'll hang on to, at least for now, and await Russia's next move.
"The best information I have seen is that Wagner is going back to operating mainly in Africa and the Middle East."
Your best information is inaccurate and is obviously not the best information. The best information is this:
Mikael Valtersson
@MikaelValterss1
NEWS UPDATE BAKHMUT LATE EVENING MAY 14
The Nest has fallen. I have also called the entire Citadel high rise area the Nest, but in Wagner vocabulary the Nest is the eastern part of the high rise area (purple lines). That is east of Levanevskogo Street. Today the Wagner forces took 9 more high rises. The sum is now 20 high rises taken by Wagner forces and 28 remaining under ukrainian control.
There's plenty more of this accurate information available. I suggest you avail yourself of it.
...In discussing modern Russian propaganda, researchers at the Rand Corporation described it as having “two distinctive features: high numbers of channels and messages and a shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions.”
The transfer of long-range precision missiles to the Kiev regime graphically confirms the unprecedented level of Britain’s involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.
Getting absorbed in geopolitics and trying to assert itself as NATO’s informal leader on the Ukrainian track as Russia’s implacable opponent, Britain is apparently prepared to cross any line and raise the conflict to a completely new level in terms of destruction and human loss.
Russia reserves the right to take any necessary measure to neutralise the threats that may be created through the use of British cruise missiles by Ukraine. All responsibility for the consequences of London’s destructive activities rests with those who planned and made this reckless decision.
Mark, In this post you suggested this being "the conflict in Ukraine—the kinetic military front of the overall World War III". Will Schryver's reference you post in your comment from 2 hours ago suggest new weaponry NATO shipped "That must be viewed as a direct act of war by NATO against Russia" (unfortunately) supports your WW III reference.
A country that participates in both the set-up (*2014 under Obama) and the propagation of what just may wind up being WW III is a pariah and should be, with all possible means employed, removed from 'World Leadership' influence.
That is My Country. I said earlier, Where did my country go? Perhaps better phrased, how did it/we get HERE?
Unsaid (and unknown to me), is there anything that can be done about this? I fear the 'natural outcome' might be a very unnatural 'nuclear series of events'. Fear being well understated.
Like the fallacy those 4-words "In God We Trust" printed on our money has become - the US can not be trusted, in any way, as representing righteousness in it's behavior.
We once were known to be trustworthy; in my memory - in my lifetime. I'm once again reminded to Trust in God - not money or country. Therein is my refuge: Blessings to you Mark, and all fellow History Observers... (WrH)
The simple facts that must be recognized are that NATO just shipped previously unavailable weaponry to Ukraine that was then used in conjunction with NATO ISR to guide those weapons to targets over Russia.
That must be viewed as a direct act of war by NATO against Russia.
***********
Looks like a LOT of secondary explosions from that ammo dump.
This is the largest ammo dump explosion and burn off I can recall seeing video of over the course of this war.
One thing is certain: the ammo dump that got hit at Khmelnytsky contained a significant quantity of munitions.
I'm reading "The Dumb Ox", a biography of St. Thomas Aquinas by G.K. Chesterton.
GKC is describing the controversy over whether Aquinas' use of the tools of Greek philosophy in Christian theology can withstand the assaults of sophistry.
GKC wraps up with a reference to "a saying attributed to a friend of St. Thomas, the great St. Louis, King of France, which shallow peple quote as a sample fo fanaticism; the sense of which is that I must either argue with an infidel as a real philosopher can argue, or else 'thrust a sword through his body as far as it will go.'"
It appears we are watching Russia thrust a sword through an infidel who will not argue on rational grounds.
US-Nato/RU, to me, feels a little bit like 'infidel' (claiming righteousness) impaling themselves on said sword... Except the sacrificed are 'others' (I recalled in the past as described as 'cannon fodder').
Tamsin, thanks for the perspective. I always am stimulated to think when you share! (WrH)
The United States of America; 2023. Oxymoron comes to mind: I've family members who died in combat for the 20th century USA. My immediate family has 86 years Military Service - 4 of us - willing to support and defend the Constitution with our lives. *(The one from 1776/1787, less so the Democratic party one of today).
And I sit here, not rooting but supportive of the Russian side of the "Ukraine war" (which feels much more like a US/NATO vs. RU thing). How can this be? I think James Bond vs. Russian villians was a great representation of "Good". It's 2023 and I am confused and heart-broken. Where did my country go? (WrH)
The dreams, hopes, blood, sweat, tears, sacrifices, hard work, aspiration for freedom, and very lives of our forebears have been sold down the river. And I do mean sold. We had a wonderful inheritance built on their fidelity to the Law and Gospel of God that has been exploited by people who have no sense of morality, honor, or deference to God. They do not know Him who is the source of all that is good and therefore propagate all that is evil and against His Will in accordance with their own love of money and power over and against all that might benefit humanity.
Very well said, D1. This country was a Beacon of the Light into this fallen world. It's simply joined the morass. Good reminder of our Faith being a personal relationship with the Savior, Christ. I hope your Sunday is a blessing - if nothing else know you've blessed me tonight. (WrH)
I’d like to think that they stole it from us under cover of darkness, Wayne, but I fear that instead they have done it in broad daylight, in front of our face and dare us to call them on it! With a pretty much unanimous lack of backbone from the “alleged” conservatives in congress, as indicated by the continuing plight of the January 6th political prisoners, I too look at what the US military has become and no longer recognize it as being anything like the one in which I served.
I wish that I felt hopeful about the future, but the damage done to the country seems almost completely irreversible.
Hi SMH, Wayne - a contrarian (?) take: while I do think the elites stole parts of the country in broad day-light, I think they did it under heavy cover of rules & regs/arcana from invented administrative state bureaucracies. I also think for most of the rotten apples, it is only about the benjamins, not a master-plan to destroy the US. We'll know we are on a better path when we (not necessarily a legislative or enforcement source, see James O'Keefe) start to seriously follow the money. Right up to and through the fake-rationale of "national security" reasons for not being open-book. I believe those good events are in our future
Most of what's coming out of Ukraine now is noise and not signal. Two things of note have happened.
1.) Wagner has been pulled out of Bakhmut. They are fought out, and Prigozhin may have run to the end of tolerance with MOD. The Ukrainians are retaking some amount of ground around the city, probably to clean up their lines of communication. This is not, repeat not, the much ballyhooed Ukrainian offensive.
2.) Ukraine has gathered an operational reserve and is now capable of offensive action. It does not follow from this that an offensive is imminent, or even planned. They may prefer to use that reserve to counter Russia's next move and take the offensive after Russia uses up their own operational reserve (And they have one) in their next offensive. To quote from my old Tactics II wargame (The old Charles Roberts design that launched modern wargaming) "The decision to commit reserves is among the most crucial and far reaching of all military moves" How Russia and Ukraine use theirs will determine the future course of this war. Very few people know, and they aren't telling.
One further observation. Outlandish propaganda claims continue on both sides. Regard all news out of Ukraine as fake until proven otherwise. My recent favorite was the claim that a Patriot missile had destroyed one of those Russian hypersonic jobs. That Patriot was launched from Snake Island, and the Ghost of Kiev threw the switch on it.
1) Wagner has not pulled out--as of yesterday. Prigozhin is only a front man, has no operational control. Wagner is under Surovikin and regular chain of command.
2) Doubtful that Ukraine is capable of actual offenseive--only limited tactical actions as seen. Training for the so-called reserve has been very limited and is outnumbered by and less well equipped than the Russians.
The best information I have seen is that Wagner is going back to operating mainly in Africa and the Middle East. I think that the war is entering a new phase and that Russia is preparing an offensive of its own, one that will be undertaken mainly by the Russian regular army. By now the Russians have had to refit units that have been in extensive combat and to train troops that have been called up. We'll see what form that new offensive eventually takes.
Prigozhin, Strelkov and others have been saying for some time that Ukraine has created additional units. They have no incentive to deceive anyone about this. How well Ukraine's new units are equipped, trained, and led I can't say, but to dismiss the threat out of hand is something no responsible commander would ever do. My guess (Guess!) is that whatever they have they'll hang on to, at least for now, and await Russia's next move.
"The best information I have seen is that Wagner is going back to operating mainly in Africa and the Middle East."
Your best information is inaccurate and is obviously not the best information. The best information is this:
Mikael Valtersson
@MikaelValterss1
NEWS UPDATE BAKHMUT LATE EVENING MAY 14
The Nest has fallen. I have also called the entire Citadel high rise area the Nest, but in Wagner vocabulary the Nest is the eastern part of the high rise area (purple lines). That is east of Levanevskogo Street. Today the Wagner forces took 9 more high rises. The sum is now 20 high rises taken by Wagner forces and 28 remaining under ukrainian control.
There's plenty more of this accurate information available. I suggest you avail yourself of it.
Jonathan Turley
@JonathanTurley
·
5h
...In discussing modern Russian propaganda, researchers at the Rand Corporation described it as having “two distinctive features: high numbers of channels and messages and a shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions.”
Sound familiar?
Statement from the Russian MFA:
The transfer of long-range precision missiles to the Kiev regime graphically confirms the unprecedented level of Britain’s involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.
Getting absorbed in geopolitics and trying to assert itself as NATO’s informal leader on the Ukrainian track as Russia’s implacable opponent, Britain is apparently prepared to cross any line and raise the conflict to a completely new level in terms of destruction and human loss.
Russia reserves the right to take any necessary measure to neutralise the threats that may be created through the use of British cruise missiles by Ukraine. All responsibility for the consequences of London’s destructive activities rests with those who planned and made this reckless decision.
Given that it is PM Sunak who really governs Britain, does the Monarch have any say in political decisions?
London is edging closer and closer to an abyss with these provocations.
First the depleted uranium and now the Star Shadow missiles.
Just curious
Mark, In this post you suggested this being "the conflict in Ukraine—the kinetic military front of the overall World War III". Will Schryver's reference you post in your comment from 2 hours ago suggest new weaponry NATO shipped "That must be viewed as a direct act of war by NATO against Russia" (unfortunately) supports your WW III reference.
A country that participates in both the set-up (*2014 under Obama) and the propagation of what just may wind up being WW III is a pariah and should be, with all possible means employed, removed from 'World Leadership' influence.
That is My Country. I said earlier, Where did my country go? Perhaps better phrased, how did it/we get HERE?
Unsaid (and unknown to me), is there anything that can be done about this? I fear the 'natural outcome' might be a very unnatural 'nuclear series of events'. Fear being well understated.
Like the fallacy those 4-words "In God We Trust" printed on our money has become - the US can not be trusted, in any way, as representing righteousness in it's behavior.
We once were known to be trustworthy; in my memory - in my lifetime. I'm once again reminded to Trust in God - not money or country. Therein is my refuge: Blessings to you Mark, and all fellow History Observers... (WrH)
Just started reading, black day for RuAF
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/black-day-for-russian-vvs-as-special
The very latest from Simplicus
https://open.substack.com/pub/simplicius76/p/black-day-for-russian-vvs-as-special?utm_source=direct&r=x010m&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Will Schryver
@imetatronink
·
1h
The simple facts that must be recognized are that NATO just shipped previously unavailable weaponry to Ukraine that was then used in conjunction with NATO ISR to guide those weapons to targets over Russia.
That must be viewed as a direct act of war by NATO against Russia.
***********
Looks like a LOT of secondary explosions from that ammo dump.
This is the largest ammo dump explosion and burn off I can recall seeing video of over the course of this war.
One thing is certain: the ammo dump that got hit at Khmelnytsky contained a significant quantity of munitions.
Those are some monstrous explosions.
@imeratronik brings up a good point. The question ... Russia view this a red line and atrocity to far?
Amazing video of Russian missile strike on munitions depot in Khmelnitsky, Western Ukraine, maned after Ukrainian hero Bohdan Khmelnitsky.
https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1657419443889221634
Recent reports, Bears in the air (Seven Tu-95s, important missile launch platform), their counterpart to B-52: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqmdGQRSE9U
Be interesting to see what they hit
Very informative re Storm Shadow
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/05/13/uk-knows-well-how-we-killed-storm-shadow-over-damascus-russia/
I'm reading "The Dumb Ox", a biography of St. Thomas Aquinas by G.K. Chesterton.
GKC is describing the controversy over whether Aquinas' use of the tools of Greek philosophy in Christian theology can withstand the assaults of sophistry.
GKC wraps up with a reference to "a saying attributed to a friend of St. Thomas, the great St. Louis, King of France, which shallow peple quote as a sample fo fanaticism; the sense of which is that I must either argue with an infidel as a real philosopher can argue, or else 'thrust a sword through his body as far as it will go.'"
It appears we are watching Russia thrust a sword through an infidel who will not argue on rational grounds.
US-Nato/RU, to me, feels a little bit like 'infidel' (claiming righteousness) impaling themselves on said sword... Except the sacrificed are 'others' (I recalled in the past as described as 'cannon fodder').
Tamsin, thanks for the perspective. I always am stimulated to think when you share! (WrH)
The United States of America; 2023. Oxymoron comes to mind: I've family members who died in combat for the 20th century USA. My immediate family has 86 years Military Service - 4 of us - willing to support and defend the Constitution with our lives. *(The one from 1776/1787, less so the Democratic party one of today).
And I sit here, not rooting but supportive of the Russian side of the "Ukraine war" (which feels much more like a US/NATO vs. RU thing). How can this be? I think James Bond vs. Russian villians was a great representation of "Good". It's 2023 and I am confused and heart-broken. Where did my country go? (WrH)
The dreams, hopes, blood, sweat, tears, sacrifices, hard work, aspiration for freedom, and very lives of our forebears have been sold down the river. And I do mean sold. We had a wonderful inheritance built on their fidelity to the Law and Gospel of God that has been exploited by people who have no sense of morality, honor, or deference to God. They do not know Him who is the source of all that is good and therefore propagate all that is evil and against His Will in accordance with their own love of money and power over and against all that might benefit humanity.
Very well said, D1. This country was a Beacon of the Light into this fallen world. It's simply joined the morass. Good reminder of our Faith being a personal relationship with the Savior, Christ. I hope your Sunday is a blessing - if nothing else know you've blessed me tonight. (WrH)
I’d like to think that they stole it from us under cover of darkness, Wayne, but I fear that instead they have done it in broad daylight, in front of our face and dare us to call them on it! With a pretty much unanimous lack of backbone from the “alleged” conservatives in congress, as indicated by the continuing plight of the January 6th political prisoners, I too look at what the US military has become and no longer recognize it as being anything like the one in which I served.
I wish that I felt hopeful about the future, but the damage done to the country seems almost completely irreversible.
Hi SMH, Wayne - a contrarian (?) take: while I do think the elites stole parts of the country in broad day-light, I think they did it under heavy cover of rules & regs/arcana from invented administrative state bureaucracies. I also think for most of the rotten apples, it is only about the benjamins, not a master-plan to destroy the US. We'll know we are on a better path when we (not necessarily a legislative or enforcement source, see James O'Keefe) start to seriously follow the money. Right up to and through the fake-rationale of "national security" reasons for not being open-book. I believe those good events are in our future
SMH, thanks. All I got left right now is *sigh*. My best to you. (WrH)