Lately we haven’t been covering the conflict in Ukraine—the kinetic military front of the overall World War III—too closely. Attritional wars of the sort Russia is waging in its “de-militarization” campaign don’t offer dramatic developments. On the other hand, there
Most of what's coming out of Ukraine now is noise and not signal. Two things of note have happened.
1.) Wagner has been pulled out of Bakhmut. They are fought out, and Prigozhin may have run to the end of tolerance with MOD. The Ukrainians are retaking some amount of ground around the city, probably to clean up their lines of communication. This is not, repeat not, the much ballyhooed Ukrainian offensive.
2.) Ukraine has gathered an operational reserve and is now capable of offensive action. It does not follow from this that an offensive is imminent, or even planned. They may prefer to use that reserve to counter Russia's next move and take the offensive after Russia uses up their own operational reserve (And they have one) in their next offensive. To quote from my old Tactics II wargame (The old Charles Roberts design that launched modern wargaming) "The decision to commit reserves is among the most crucial and far reaching of all military moves" How Russia and Ukraine use theirs will determine the future course of this war. Very few people know, and they aren't telling.
One further observation. Outlandish propaganda claims continue on both sides. Regard all news out of Ukraine as fake until proven otherwise. My recent favorite was the claim that a Patriot missile had destroyed one of those Russian hypersonic jobs. That Patriot was launched from Snake Island, and the Ghost of Kiev threw the switch on it.
...In discussing modern Russian propaganda, researchers at the Rand Corporation described it as having “two distinctive features: high numbers of channels and messages and a shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions.”
The transfer of long-range precision missiles to the Kiev regime graphically confirms the unprecedented level of Britain’s involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.
Getting absorbed in geopolitics and trying to assert itself as NATO’s informal leader on the Ukrainian track as Russia’s implacable opponent, Britain is apparently prepared to cross any line and raise the conflict to a completely new level in terms of destruction and human loss.
Russia reserves the right to take any necessary measure to neutralise the threats that may be created through the use of British cruise missiles by Ukraine. All responsibility for the consequences of London’s destructive activities rests with those who planned and made this reckless decision.
Mark, In this post you suggested this being "the conflict in Ukraine—the kinetic military front of the overall World War III". Will Schryver's reference you post in your comment from 2 hours ago suggest new weaponry NATO shipped "That must be viewed as a direct act of war by NATO against Russia" (unfortunately) supports your WW III reference.
A country that participates in both the set-up (*2014 under Obama) and the propagation of what just may wind up being WW III is a pariah and should be, with all possible means employed, removed from 'World Leadership' influence.
That is My Country. I said earlier, Where did my country go? Perhaps better phrased, how did it/we get HERE?
Unsaid (and unknown to me), is there anything that can be done about this? I fear the 'natural outcome' might be a very unnatural 'nuclear series of events'. Fear being well understated.
Like the fallacy those 4-words "In God We Trust" printed on our money has become - the US can not be trusted, in any way, as representing righteousness in it's behavior.
We once were known to be trustworthy; in my memory - in my lifetime. I'm once again reminded to Trust in God - not money or country. Therein is my refuge: Blessings to you Mark, and all fellow History Observers... (WrH)
The simple facts that must be recognized are that NATO just shipped previously unavailable weaponry to Ukraine that was then used in conjunction with NATO ISR to guide those weapons to targets over Russia.
That must be viewed as a direct act of war by NATO against Russia.
***********
Looks like a LOT of secondary explosions from that ammo dump.
This is the largest ammo dump explosion and burn off I can recall seeing video of over the course of this war.
One thing is certain: the ammo dump that got hit at Khmelnytsky contained a significant quantity of munitions.
I'm reading "The Dumb Ox", a biography of St. Thomas Aquinas by G.K. Chesterton.
GKC is describing the controversy over whether Aquinas' use of the tools of Greek philosophy in Christian theology can withstand the assaults of sophistry.
GKC wraps up with a reference to "a saying attributed to a friend of St. Thomas, the great St. Louis, King of France, which shallow peple quote as a sample fo fanaticism; the sense of which is that I must either argue with an infidel as a real philosopher can argue, or else 'thrust a sword through his body as far as it will go.'"
It appears we are watching Russia thrust a sword through an infidel who will not argue on rational grounds.
The United States of America; 2023. Oxymoron comes to mind: I've family members who died in combat for the 20th century USA. My immediate family has 86 years Military Service - 4 of us - willing to support and defend the Constitution with our lives. *(The one from 1776/1787, less so the Democratic party one of today).
And I sit here, not rooting but supportive of the Russian side of the "Ukraine war" (which feels much more like a US/NATO vs. RU thing). How can this be? I think James Bond vs. Russian villians was a great representation of "Good". It's 2023 and I am confused and heart-broken. Where did my country go? (WrH)
Most of what's coming out of Ukraine now is noise and not signal. Two things of note have happened.
1.) Wagner has been pulled out of Bakhmut. They are fought out, and Prigozhin may have run to the end of tolerance with MOD. The Ukrainians are retaking some amount of ground around the city, probably to clean up their lines of communication. This is not, repeat not, the much ballyhooed Ukrainian offensive.
2.) Ukraine has gathered an operational reserve and is now capable of offensive action. It does not follow from this that an offensive is imminent, or even planned. They may prefer to use that reserve to counter Russia's next move and take the offensive after Russia uses up their own operational reserve (And they have one) in their next offensive. To quote from my old Tactics II wargame (The old Charles Roberts design that launched modern wargaming) "The decision to commit reserves is among the most crucial and far reaching of all military moves" How Russia and Ukraine use theirs will determine the future course of this war. Very few people know, and they aren't telling.
One further observation. Outlandish propaganda claims continue on both sides. Regard all news out of Ukraine as fake until proven otherwise. My recent favorite was the claim that a Patriot missile had destroyed one of those Russian hypersonic jobs. That Patriot was launched from Snake Island, and the Ghost of Kiev threw the switch on it.
Jonathan Turley
@JonathanTurley
·
5h
...In discussing modern Russian propaganda, researchers at the Rand Corporation described it as having “two distinctive features: high numbers of channels and messages and a shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions.”
Sound familiar?
Statement from the Russian MFA:
The transfer of long-range precision missiles to the Kiev regime graphically confirms the unprecedented level of Britain’s involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.
Getting absorbed in geopolitics and trying to assert itself as NATO’s informal leader on the Ukrainian track as Russia’s implacable opponent, Britain is apparently prepared to cross any line and raise the conflict to a completely new level in terms of destruction and human loss.
Russia reserves the right to take any necessary measure to neutralise the threats that may be created through the use of British cruise missiles by Ukraine. All responsibility for the consequences of London’s destructive activities rests with those who planned and made this reckless decision.
Mark, In this post you suggested this being "the conflict in Ukraine—the kinetic military front of the overall World War III". Will Schryver's reference you post in your comment from 2 hours ago suggest new weaponry NATO shipped "That must be viewed as a direct act of war by NATO against Russia" (unfortunately) supports your WW III reference.
A country that participates in both the set-up (*2014 under Obama) and the propagation of what just may wind up being WW III is a pariah and should be, with all possible means employed, removed from 'World Leadership' influence.
That is My Country. I said earlier, Where did my country go? Perhaps better phrased, how did it/we get HERE?
Unsaid (and unknown to me), is there anything that can be done about this? I fear the 'natural outcome' might be a very unnatural 'nuclear series of events'. Fear being well understated.
Like the fallacy those 4-words "In God We Trust" printed on our money has become - the US can not be trusted, in any way, as representing righteousness in it's behavior.
We once were known to be trustworthy; in my memory - in my lifetime. I'm once again reminded to Trust in God - not money or country. Therein is my refuge: Blessings to you Mark, and all fellow History Observers... (WrH)
Just started reading, black day for RuAF
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/black-day-for-russian-vvs-as-special
The very latest from Simplicus
https://open.substack.com/pub/simplicius76/p/black-day-for-russian-vvs-as-special?utm_source=direct&r=x010m&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Will Schryver
@imetatronink
·
1h
The simple facts that must be recognized are that NATO just shipped previously unavailable weaponry to Ukraine that was then used in conjunction with NATO ISR to guide those weapons to targets over Russia.
That must be viewed as a direct act of war by NATO against Russia.
***********
Looks like a LOT of secondary explosions from that ammo dump.
This is the largest ammo dump explosion and burn off I can recall seeing video of over the course of this war.
One thing is certain: the ammo dump that got hit at Khmelnytsky contained a significant quantity of munitions.
Those are some monstrous explosions.
Amazing video of Russian missile strike on munitions depot in Khmelnitsky, Western Ukraine, maned after Ukrainian hero Bohdan Khmelnitsky.
https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1657419443889221634
Recent reports, Bears in the air (Seven Tu-95s, important missile launch platform), their counterpart to B-52: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqmdGQRSE9U
Very informative re Storm Shadow
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/05/13/uk-knows-well-how-we-killed-storm-shadow-over-damascus-russia/
I'm reading "The Dumb Ox", a biography of St. Thomas Aquinas by G.K. Chesterton.
GKC is describing the controversy over whether Aquinas' use of the tools of Greek philosophy in Christian theology can withstand the assaults of sophistry.
GKC wraps up with a reference to "a saying attributed to a friend of St. Thomas, the great St. Louis, King of France, which shallow peple quote as a sample fo fanaticism; the sense of which is that I must either argue with an infidel as a real philosopher can argue, or else 'thrust a sword through his body as far as it will go.'"
It appears we are watching Russia thrust a sword through an infidel who will not argue on rational grounds.
The United States of America; 2023. Oxymoron comes to mind: I've family members who died in combat for the 20th century USA. My immediate family has 86 years Military Service - 4 of us - willing to support and defend the Constitution with our lives. *(The one from 1776/1787, less so the Democratic party one of today).
And I sit here, not rooting but supportive of the Russian side of the "Ukraine war" (which feels much more like a US/NATO vs. RU thing). How can this be? I think James Bond vs. Russian villians was a great representation of "Good". It's 2023 and I am confused and heart-broken. Where did my country go? (WrH)