Ukraine And The Future Of Money
We’ll be hearing lots more on this topic in the near future—possibly the very near future—so let’s try to get out front a bit.
A few days ago I cited—I believe in a comment—a 2019 study by the Rand Corporation, in support of the point—basic for understanding the Russia - US - Ukraine conflict—that the stated policy goal of the US is to “undermine” Russia. Undermining, another term for destabilization, of course, is the first step toward regime change—a cat that Zhou let totally out of the bag, never to return, during his excellent trip to Europe and, in particular, to Poland. The original Rand document is somewhat lengthy, but today there’s a nice summary at Anti-war.com, which I’ll excerpt just to emphasize those very basic points of what this is really all about. We start with the general policy goals:
According to a 2019 Rand report titled "Overextending and Unbalancing Russia", the US goal is to undermine Russia just as it did the Soviet Union in the cold war. Rather than "trying to stay ahead" or trying to improve the US domestically or in international relations, the emphasis is on efforts and actions to undermine the designated adversary Russia. Rand is a quasi-US governmental think tank that receives three-quarters of its funding from the US military.
The report lists anti-Russia measures divided into the following areas: economic, geopolitical, ideological/informational, and military. They are assessed according to the perceived risks, benefits and "likelihood of success".
Obviously, Putin is stating nothing more than the obvious truth when he and other Russian officials say that their conflict is not with Ukraine, per se, but with an aggressive US that is seeking to destroy Russia. The nitty gritty details of the report are framed in reasonable sounding language, but language that leaves little doubt that Russia is viewed as an adversary to be coerced into submission by all available means, including military. Thus the very first sentence:
This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines nonviolent, cost-imposing options that the United States and its allies could pursue across economic, political, and military areas to stress—overextend and unbalance—Russia’s economy and armed forces and the regime's political standing at home and abroad.
The Anti-war.com article points out that leveraging conflict in Ukraine is key to the strategy that Rand presents. The article then summarizes some of those “options”:
For these same reasons of geography and history, Ukraine is a major component of a US/NATO effort to undermine Russia. Current Under Secretary for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, said that over 20 years the US invested $5 billion in the project to turn Ukraine. The culmination was a violent coup in February 2014. Since 2015, the US has been training ultra nationalist and Neo-Nazi militias. This has been documented in articles such as "U.S. House admits Nazi role in Ukraine" (Robert Parry, 2015), "The US is arming and assisting neo-nazis in Ukraine while the House debates prohibition."(Max Blumenthal, 2018), "Neo Nazis and the far right are on the march in Ukraine" (Lev Golinken in 2019) and "The CIA may be breeding Nazi terror in Ukraine" (Branko Marcetic Jan. 2022).
Rand suggested provocations
Prior to 2018, the US only provided "defensive" military weaponry to Ukraine. The Rand report assesses that providing lethal (offensive) military aid to Ukraine will have a high risk but also a high benefit. Accordingly, US lethal weaponry skyrocketed from near zero to $250M in 2019, to $303M in 2020, to $350M in 2021. Total military aid is much higher. A few weeks ago, "The Hill" reported, "The US has contributed more than $1 billion to help Ukraine’s military over the past year".
That paragraph should sufficiently answer the question: Why now? Skyrocketing shipments of highly provocative weaponry that posed a direct challenge to Russia forced Putin’s hand. War was not his preferred option. Also of note is the fact that this acceleration to war happened on Trump’s watch and continued on Zhou’s. This war is one which the US Deep State wanted.
The Rand report lists many techniques and "measures" to provoke and threaten Russia. Some of the steps include:
Repositioning bombers within easy striking range of key Russian strategic targets
Deploying additional tactical nuclear weapons to locations in Europe and Asia
Increasing US and allied naval force posture and presence in Russia’s operating areas (Black Sea)
Holding NATO war exercises on Russia’s borders
Withdrawing from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty
These and many other provocations suggested by Rand have, in fact, been implemented. For example, NATO conducted massive war exercises dubbed "Defender 2021" right up Russia’s border. NATO has started "patrolling" the Black Sea and engaging in provocative intrusions into Crimean waters. The US has withdrawn from the INF Treaty.
The Rand study claims to balance risks and benefits of these extremely aggressive actions. I don’t think they thought through the ramifications of Russia’s counter moves, which brings us to the topic of Money. Putin is being reported to be about to take a major step:
Germany is putting on a brave front, but …
Markets seem to think otherwise:
Markets seem to see what KD sees—the switch to non-Russian energy sources cannot happen quickly. If ever: Foolish Signals, No Impact.
What’s going on? Commenter Helmsley Hawes has linked a substack that tries to explain the money situation, with specific reference to Bitcoin. I excerpt it severely to highlight certain important points—that dedollarization is now inevitable and that CBDCs are unlikely to be able to prop up the robber baron ruling class of the West. It’s an optimistic view:
Inside Money and Outside Money
the Russian invasion of Ukraine—or more specifically the U.S. response to it—just changed the nature of money globally. …
… Russia begins a new game of transacting in a non-dollar economy. ...
Gold will be useful to banks, surely, but Bitcoin will take on the role of digital gold.
Dedollarization is Now Inevitable
IMHO, it was already inevitable, but we can see the actual path quite clearly now.
How does that model of change look right now?
The petrodollar system is now aligning itself with a strategy to starve the world of energy at a time when fertilizer prices are booming far beyond the levels of the mortgage bond crisis. Many nations could reach a breaking point at which they are forced to realign banking polarity opposite to the U.S. Federal Reserve banking system.'
Russians are already finding willing new economic partners in the Middle East and China.
CBDCs would either prop up the dollar system (I doubt that's possible), or result in a new era of rulers-as-unaligned-robber-barons, each with their own insider currencies. The latter would result in many weak rulers whose citizens would easily route around them with decentralized outsider money. Fiat currencies would hyperinflate rapidly, and militaries would stop working with the banks.
Western politics still engages in broken-window fallacy economics and the bizarre myth of stimulus spending as a solution.
Wall Street is engaged in a new level of regulatory warfare. When an industry gets used to getting away with its crimes, it may commit too many to remain solvent when the investigators start working all the cases.
But now here’s a fairly long thread that tries to forecast the future in this dedollarized world. YMMV definitely applies, but it serves as a reminder that there’s more going on here than just economics or monetary policy:
Worse than a crime, it’s a blunder!
The US has made a huge strategic error with the Russia sanctions. These will fail on multiple levels. They will not stop the war. Russia will continue until it gets what it wants. Russia has divorced the west and that represents the most important geopolitical event since the fall of the USSR. They will not do huge harm to Russia. Russia is self-sufficient in many things, especially the 2 most critical ones, food & energy. Energy is the economy. Food represents a level of govt stability.
Russia will have some pain as it transitions from west to east, but yr or 2 at most. It will emerge stronger. 88% of the world will still do business with Russia. It has 30% of world’s Nat Resources. It can set markets & determine surpluses & shortages on many valuable things.
It will grow on The China Model, rejecting its role as a raw supplier only to The West
The US & EU seizing Russian Foreign Reserves tells the entire world that the US$ & € are not safe. They are backed by nothing but trust. Now there is no trust. This is a disastrous policy.They are cutting their throat to spite their nose. This will start the end of the US$ as reserve currency and will weaken € as well. Kissinger knew in 1971 that empires fall when they get into debt. The US was in debt in 1971 and had to go off the gold standard.
The US made a deal with Saudis in 1973 to defend them as long as KSA sold oil in US$. Instead of the gold standard, the world had the Petro $. Eventually, out of convenience and US soft power, the US$ was used to trade everything.
Now Russia, Iran, Venezuela do not want to sell in US$, and KSA will sell to China in yuan. KSA and UAE refused to take calls from Biden recently. Rejected UK proposal to increase oil production. By avoiding US$ & €, these countries can avoid sanctions and protect their income from seizure. China is largest trader in the world. World does not need US$ to conduct trade. Trade existed before Bretton Woods. By sanctioning Russia, seizing her Foreign Reserves, from necessity a new Payment System will develop that excludes US$.
The Yuan will not replace the US$, but a basket of currencies/commodities will emerge. The world is being divided into 2 camps. The West, which is NATO/EU/5Eyes/Japan against The Rest of the world. 12% vs 88%. Don’t be fooled by GDP and think the west will win.
Look at PPP and where energy and other Nat Resources are. They are overwhelmingly in The Rest. They will continue to grow and resist western exploitation. The West has not brought The Rest up to their level of success or development.
This has been intentional, as the relationship has been exploitative and parasitic. The Rest know this. And now Russia and China have shown they will lead The Resistance and are too powerful for The West to stop.
A NEW New World Order is emerging.The Rest will have a chance to emerge & be independent. The West will have to adapt. The US/UK will refuse & will fight the coming change, but it is too late. The EU will suffer greatly from the sanctions as Russia has too many things it needs for their economy to function.
The US$ will continue to lose % of world business. Central Banks will reduce US$ holdings. Those US$ will return to the US, inflating prices. At some point, US Int rates will rise to protect the $. But with a $30 T debt, and a budget deficit around $2 T/yr, this will increase payments up from $300B/yr. Investors will require higher interest for treasuries & bonds. Social Security will be out of funds by 2033 based on current estimates, but these problems will speed that up. Eventually investors will sell their treasuries and bonds at a loss to get out from a declining asset. That will start a run on the bank, and the dominoes will start to fall. Between inflation, a falling currency, recession and probable depression, these forces will unleash social unrest in the US.
People are tired of being poor and exploited as the rich get richer. Red vs Blue will get worse. US forces will return home as bases close overseas. There will be no jobs, but there will be 400 million guns and a lot of people who know how to use them.
This could be avoidable if the US would pull back now & stop trying to rule the world and fix their own problems. But all indications are they will double down on ruling the world and make it all worse. This will speed up their collapse. As both a super power & as a country
If [the US] can avoid civil war, or WW3, they could return in a decade or two as a super power. But in the next few decades we will see more problems due to climate change, environmental degradation and a coming oil shortage (only 45 yrs of known oil reserves left in the world).
So the task becomes that much more difficult in what will be a more difficult world for almost everyone else as well. The age of conflict is not near an end with the end of the US as the UniPower. It will just enter a different one.
We have to hope the loss of US power can bring about a change in global politics to one of cooperation rather than domination. Otherwise, our species will be at great risk to survive in our present form from this century.
• • •
I take issue with much of the last three paragraphs. For that reason, and because I’m cautiously optimistic that the Globalist Elite will be neutered by Russia’s moves, I believe the US comeback could proceed more quickly. But that will depend on spiritual factors, as well.
Michael Tracey
@mtracey
Anyone who claims with zero evidence that the Biden call for regime change in Russia was merely an unintentional "gaffe" -- despite being delivered at the climax of a formal, prepared speech -- is a total idiot
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/27/can-russia-escape-the-us-trap/

Amy Tarkanian
@MrsT106

Lindsey Graham & John McCain in Ukraine in December 2016 preparing for a proxy war with Russia all the way back then.
Then, Trump came in and stopped it all from happening.