Two Good Articles Re The Status And Significance Of The Niger Coup

Most of what’s contained in these two articles won’t come as major revelations, but every little bit helps when we’re dealing with a country that few of us have devoted much thought to.

First up is M. K Bhadrakumar: Niger rejects rules-based order.

MKB begins with a review of Putin’s masterful diplomacy outreach to Africa over the last few weeks. Not that African outreach is anything new for Russia. He then proceeds to the current status, which is that France is trying to tough it out, to maintain its military presence in Niger (1,500 troops). The French claim is that they’re in Niger at the request of the “legitimate government”, the one that was overthrown. Whatever the legal merits of that position, it appears that France has miscalculated both the support that the coup leaders enjoy within Niger as well as the depth of anti-French feeling throughout the Sahel region. France could soon find itself in an untenable situation. Ironically, the French find themselves in a poor position to reinforce their presence in Niger, having donated large amounts of weaponry to Ukraine—including large numbers of the AMX-10 RC which is largely designed for operation in conditions such as Niger features, rather than in Ukraine.

MKB does a particularly good job in outlining the difficulties that Nigeria faces. The US had hoped to pressure Nigeria—the regional powerhouse—into invading Niger. That doesn’t look likely, for now:

France and the US coordinate their actions with the Economic Community of West African States [ECOWAS]. The ECOWAS initially did some sabre-rattling but has piped down. Its deadline for intervention has passed. The ECOWAS simply does not have a mechanism for the rapid gathering of troops and the coordination of hostilities, and its powerhouse Nigeria has its hands full tackling internal security. The Nigerian public opinion feels wary about a blowback — Niger is a large country and has a 1500-kilometre long porous border with Nigeria. An unspoken truth is, Nigeria is hardly interested in increasing the French military presence in Niger or on being on the same side with France, which is extremely unpopular throughout the Sahel.  

The most capable military in the region is that of Algeria, and Algeria has made its anti-intervention stance abundantly clear:

Algeria has warned against any external military intervention in Niger. ‘‘Flaunting military intervention in Niger is a direct threat to Algeria, and we completely and categorically reject it… Problems should be solved peacefully,” said Algerian president Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

The US is still attempting to throw its weight around, aptly utilizing Victoria Nuland for the purpose. My guess is that the US will back off. Sending US troops to Africa to kill Black people probably won’t play well with the Dem base.

The result is that the collective West has been caught flat-footed and finds itself between a rock and a hard place.

Alex Krainer takes a somewhat broader view:

We've reached the end of western colonialism

Africa's struggle is the struggle of all humanity

The article features a nice map of the region:

Of course, when it comes to coups in this region the question that immediately arises is, Are these home grown coups or are they the result of outside machinations? The presence of French troops throughout the region over the years has been to insure that any coups would be of the “right kind”—coups that protected French interests. But French power projection has been stretched thin in recent times. Ironically, much of the trouble in that regard stems from the heavily French instigated NATO attack on Libya—an own goal if ever there was one. The result has been an enormous flow of weaponry from Libya across the entire Sahel. France has found itself in the unfamiliar position of needing to play nice with African countries to shore up its standing. The new act hasn’t been terribly convincing:

This, perhaps, was what motivated Macron to ask to be invited to the BRICS Summit in South Africa and why his government invited the leaders of African nations to Paris on 22/23 June for the Summit for a New Global Financial Pact. It was a charm offensive to preserve the colonial status quo in a new and improved LGBT packaging, but always under the auspices of the IMF and World Bank. The initiative did not work as hoped and many African leaders openly berated President Macron. Kenya's William Ruto bluntly told Macron: "You are not hearing us!"

The coup leaders had a plan, and they began implementing it immediately, hitting France where it hurt most:

Among the first decisions that General Tchiani took upon taking power was to suspend Niger's exports of Uranium to France, with immediate effect. So, that's going to hurt: France depends on Niger for a substantial percentage (anything between 25% and 40%) of Uranium for French nuclear power plants, and France depends on nuclear for over 70% of its electricity demand, the highest percentage in the world. According to some estimates, one in 3 lightbulbs in France are powered by Nigerien Uranium.

Krainer then goes on to elaborate on the economic squeeze that’s being applied to France, as well as the very real practical difficulties involved in any military intervention. He then touches on two fascinating topics.

The first of the two is the UK attempting to protect its interests. How? By offering to train African militaries. I guess that translates into developing ties to the guys with guns who can overthrow countries that prove troublesome to British interests. The British offer was in direct competition with Russia and China. I’m guessing that, while some African leaders may not have heard of the Trojan horse, they can still recognize one when they see it:

After the Russia-Africa Summit last month, Britain's Foreign Secretary James Cleverly was sufficiently alarmed to issue a statement that London was "ready to seriously consider any requests from African leaders regarding capacity building and training in the British Armed forces." Cleverly added that British troops can export the professionalism of the British military to the African continent, and that Russia and China have only made "superficially attractive offers" to some African countries regarding security.

Hopefully the Africans haven't noticed how well all that professionalism has served Ukraine. Last week Cleverly went on a tour of African countries and visited Ghana, Nigeria and Zambia to affirm the "mutually beneficial commercial relationships" with African nations.

Also of interest is the fact that the US finds itself in direct competition with China for business in the nuclear reactor field. Many African countries have an electricity shortage, but do have uranium. Nuclear power plants—at the right price—could solve a lot of problems. The Chinese are Johnny on the spot, at a price point that’s hard to beat. China can build nuclear power plants for a fifth of the price that Westinghouse can:

If the Chinese can offer nuclear energy at 20% the price of Western ones and finance it without forcing IMF loans, their crushing "structural reforms," mandatory LGBT indoctrination and parades, and all other humiliating nonsense, then the fight has already been lost.

Overall, both are excellent articles, good resources for getting up to speed on this region.