Turley On Trump's Win (Mostly) On Immunity; Also Lebanon

The Immunity for POTUS ruling turned out pretty much as expected—mostly a win for Trump, with the possibility for difficulties kicked down the road with multiple appeals ahead. As usual, Jonathan Turley provides a balanced interpretation. I’ve slightly edited the tweets in a very few spots because Turley was obviously writing in a hurry. My edits are in brackets and ellipses and are very minor:

No protection for unofficial acts. So the issue is … what constitutes official acts. It is a very [favorable decision] for Trump in the sense that the Court rejected the lower court and recognizes some immunity. That will further delay the lower court proceedings, but Trump will have to argue that his actions fall within these navigational beacons. The lower court judge has been highly favorable for Jack Smith in the past. Yet the court is arguing that there is a presumption of immunity for their official acts beyond the absolute immunity on core constitutional powers.

This last bolded portion is very important. The Court held that a POTUS enjoys absolute immunity for actions involving “core constitutional powers”. Beyond that, however, a court will be required to provide a presumption of immunity for official acts more generally. A challenge, in other words, will have to first overcome that initial presumption. Thus, as Turley says at the top, the key issue becomes, What constitutes an official act? The Court has a few things to say about that.

Note this language:

Boom:

Whenever the President and Vice President discuss their official responsibilities, they engage in official conduct. Presiding over the January 6 certification proceeding at which Members of Congress count the electoral votes is a constitutional and statutory duty of the Vice President. Art. II, §1, cl. 3; Amdt. 12; 3 U. S. C. §15. The indictment’s allegations that Trump attempted to pressure the Vice President to take particular acts in connection with his role at the certification proceeding thus involve official conduct, and Trump is at least presumptively immune from prosecution for such conduct.

"The question then becomes whether that presumption of immunity is rebutted under the circumstances. When the Vice President presides over the January 6 certification proceeding, he does so in his capacity as President of the Senate. "

On [Trump’s] speech:

Boom:

The alleged conduct largely consists of Trump’s communications in the form of Tweets and a public address. The President possesses “extraordinary power to speak to his fellow citizens and on their behalf.” Hawaii, 585 U. S., at 701; cf. Lindke v. Freed, 601 U. S. 187, 191 (2024). As the sole person charged by the Constitution with executing the laws of the United States, the President oversees—and thus will frequently speak publicly about—a vast array of activities that touch on nearly every aspect of American life.

The analysis is tougher on the electors:

Unlike Trump’s alleged interactions with the Justice Department, this alleged conduct cannot be neatly categorized as falling within a particular Presidential function. The necessary analysis is instead fact specific, requiring assessment of numerous alleged interactions with a wide variety of state officials and private persons.

Overall, this seems to be a very reasonable decision and sends the case back to Go.

Regarding the Dem melt down regarding the Zhou candidacy …

Michigan governor warned Biden campaign her state is no longer winnable: report

Gov Gretchen Whitmer is distancing herself from efforts to force President Biden out of the race

The news arose from a call between Whitmer and Biden campaign Chair Jennifer O’Malley Dillon. Sources familiar with the call told the outlet that Whitmer expressed frustration that her name was being raised as a replacement for Biden in the wake of the debate.

She disavowed any effort to force Biden to drop out of the race, something a growing number of Democrats are pushing for.

Another source told Politico that she gave Dillon a general warning that Michigan was no longer winnable for Biden following his debate performance.

Whitmer's reaction mirrors that of other prominent Democrats, who have rallied to Biden in public while reportedly panicking and raising doubts about his candidacy in private.

Here’s my takeaway. Whitmer is probably, at the moment, the most favored replacement for Zhou. Nevertheless, removing Zhou is 1) a tricky, difficult, and desperate maneuver, and 2) one which will require a lot of preparation of the Dem public. There are alternate candidates who might appeal to various sectors within the Dem demographic—Stein, RFK, West. A switcheroo runs the risk of sending more voters than usual scrambling for alternative or protest candidacies. Thus Whitmer’s caution. Is Michigan truly unwinnable? Perhaps in a fair election, but that’s obviously no guaranteed. The statement thus appears to be more in the nature of a talking point for replacing Zhou than a real prediction.

Lastly, again on election matters, we turn to … Lebanon!

Commenter ML pointed to Larry Johnson’s article today:

THE WAR IN LEBANON AGAINST HEZBOLLAH IS UNDERWAY

It’s a succinct article, so do follow the link. However, for our purposes regarding the US election, I’ll excerpt this portion (below). We made similar points yesterday—major war in the Middle East would very likely be a recipe for electoral disaster for the Dems, especially if it drew the US in. The US would inevitably suffer significant losses, given the vulnerability of the US presence to ballistic missiles:

While the combat potential of Israel and Hezbollah pales in comparison to what is unfolding in Ukraine, both in scale and ferocity, an Israeli invasion carries the genuine risk of bringing other combatants to the side of Hezbollah and extending this war geographically while draining Israel’s ability to prosecute it to a successful end. We could very well see a situation on the ground in Israel and Lebanon by the end of August, with Israeli pleading for U.S. military intervention. Not exactly a great campaign issue for the doddering old man holed up in the White House.

Joe Biden’s vacant, deteriorating mind is not a metaphor. It is a reality. The United States is the only country that can prevent this war but, like Biden on Thursday night’s debate stage, United States policymakers are frozen in place and unwilling to order Israel to stand down. We are encouraging the Israeli version of Thelma-and-Louise to step on the gas as they hurtle towards the edge of the Grand Canyon. Only in this case, the abyss is Lebanon.

Now, a word about the Lebanese Army. Yesterday I mentioned, again, the unfolding scenario that Israeli/US citizen Amos Hochstein is attempting to fuel to provide the fig leaf of US distance from the genocide in Gaza and war in Lebanon—arming the Lebanese Army and pressuring the Lebanese government to then attack Hezbollah.

My view is that this is most likely a fantasy. The Lebanese government would find itself in the crosshairs of the Axis of Resistance and a pariah in the region.

There’s also this consideration. For very many years, up to the 2022 election in Lebanon, the Lebanese government and army were basically controlled by Michel Aoun’s party. Until 2022 Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) has been the dominant Christian party in Lebanon. Further, Aoun has been in a political alliance with Hezbollah since 2006. This alliance has included cooperation of the Lebanese Army with Hezbollah against US supported radical jihadis in Syria and Lebanon.

Now, in 2022 the FPM had a disastrous election, losing its dominant position among Christians to the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces. While Lebanese Forces maintains a (supposedly disbanded) militia, it’s miniscule compared to Hezbollah. The Lebanese Army is probably more capable than many might imagine, but the idea of transforming it into a united force capable of taking on Hezbollah without inviting a catastrophic civil war is almost certainly fantasy. Under Aoun, from 2006 to 2022, relations with Hezbollah were basically good. An about face in two years doesn’t seem probable, especially in the face of contrary interests. For a sympathetic explanation of the position of Lebanese Christians:

‘This is not our war.’ Lebanese Christians caught between Hezbollah and Israel.

Lastly, some interesting news from Israel that indicates a significant degree of disarray going forward:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:

Gallant released 50 Palestinian hostages, including the director of Shifa Hospital, without informing Netanyahu and other war criminals in the Israeli government.

Netanyahu is furious.

Source: N12

BREAKING:

Defense Minister Yoav Galant:

"The Israeli army needs 10,000 soldiers immediately."

This follows on multiple reports that Israeli reservists are refusing call-ups.

Also, with regard to Turkey’s recent decision to mend fences with Assad in Syria—which means poking the US in the eye:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:

Erdogan decided to crush, his allies until yesterday, the Syrian rebels also supported by the US and Israel.

Turkish F-16s have taken off from various airports and are on their way to northern Syria, where Turkish-backed Syrian rebels are clashing against the Turks, especially in Afrin city.

NEW: Turkish Air Force told to stand down; negotiations between Turkish army and Turkey-backed Syrian rebels in northern Syria is now ongoing.

Again, there are four months till the US elections, and all kinds of stuff could be hitting the fan. On multiple fronts, but the Middle East appears to be primed.