Is the Collective West in disarray because of its absence of long term thinking? Or is it all a charade and the master minds are just really good at hiding what's actually going on? Well, we might be in for an even bumpier ride than we thought, not because the Western leadership is brilliant (they are mostly imbeciles), but the underlying sociological structure is not as short-sighted as one might assume.
Nel Bonilla, author of Worldlines, explains her “bunker state” framework and why she sees NATO 3.0 as a shift toward deeper military integration. She and Pascal Lottaz discuss NATO’s evolution, Europe’s defense industry, proxy warfare, conscription, public spending, the “global West,” and ways peace, labor, and neutrality movements could resist this change.
Instead of us being subjects of a country we identify with, we become objects of securitization in preparation for a state of permanent warfare. Apparently at Ankara, companies were ''promised'' it was safe to invest as this was a guaranteed long-term project.
The troops and Mariners are "allegedly" being moved further west (to Occupied Palestine); but, if true, just to be out of "immediate reach" of Iranian pre-emptive and/or retaliatory strikes by Iran. Because, never forget: since the Brits (and I say that as a descendant of a common Anglo-Saxon/German heritage, it shames my heritage to even say!) learned, and was taught well, the fine art of duplicity in diplomacy, and mastered by the JSA : they are lying, NEVER believe them. It is now (FINALLY!) being widely known that one NEVER "makes a deal" with the American JOG. It will always be used as a trick to get sukuhs to drop their hands just enough so they can be sucker-punched/sneak-attacked again...never trust an "agreement", nor an "MOU" with the Saxons. All Honor left the battlefield since the War Of Northern Terror on the Confederacy, and has been long-gone ever since. And ordinary, typical American or Brit you can mostly count on; but NOT those occupied governments! They especially f-over even their own, until they need something and trick their citizens with some breadcrumbs. The point being : Iran is going to be massively bombed-and, yes, *nuked* (!!), by the (now) ISRAELI-led American military (!!), with a prompting by that "shitty little country" in Palestine. Another big "culling of the herd" is long overdue, OY! Blut Geld : always a "what a DEEEAL!" I hope someone will nuke Jew-rusalem! Not anything left to bitch at each other over, none of the Abrahamic lunatics!
Ivar, we haven't heard the phrase "ZOG" in a helluva long time. I wonder if it originated in the USA, Kanada, or England. The pondering is becuz I've heard similar things in Minsk, Grodno, Warszawa, Psov, Lwow... Different groups have their way of paraphrasing it. I'd list a few, but would screw up the spelling. Despite the cloudy sky and foggy weather, certainly over a billion humanoids know about what's constantly being swept under the rug.
As for your heritage, I feel your pain. Yrs ago I stopped taking the family to what use to be called 'The City of Lights.' Also we use to go to the POSK in London. We had friends in what use to be GB. I'd always say there's nothing like Eng tea. I believe it must be due to milk emanating from their cows. Lastly Henderson, of YouTube fame, has a film about checking out sites pertaining to his Anglo heritage. Plez consider checking it out. Very interesting.
Very good and certainly disturbing. "It is a hoax, untethered from the principles and ideals of our founders." I don't think there is any doubt there, now.
Here is a case that paints a very unflattering picture of "our" government which is supposed to be looking out for the best interests of its citizens:
"Jeffrey Tucker - founder and president of the Brownstone Institute, says top FDA and NIH officials told him that the purpose of the COVID-19 lockdowns were 'to delay the onset of natural immunity… until after the shots were online.'"
Excellent interview with Col Macgregor. Key points:
- on tactical nukes, it would be irrational to use them, but the people discussing this aren't rational
- parallel between how the British Empire broke down over the world wars and the current trajectory of the US/Israeli Empire
- seemingly irrational decisions made by the British in WW1, yet they were made regardless
- the power vacuum left by the impending implosion of power projection in the Middle East, how China picks up the pieces and the second-order effects for the US
I just finished listening not long ago. It starts out a bit slowly but gathers steam. I found his conviction that we're going to have to get out fascinating.
I like this smartly chosen list of targets from Iran:
"Potential targets include bases in Bulgaria and Cyprus, as well as subsea cables in the Strait of Hormuz."
Why?
Because it shows the Iranians have a pretty good perception of the Western psyche.
The Iranians clearly understand Western youth are not going to flood recruiting offices and volunteer to get killed in response to attacks on Sofia, Bulgaria, a British airbase in Cyprus, or some subsea fiber optic cables in the Persian Gulf.
Yeah, but what about if they find weapons of mass destruction? There's always been enjoyment swimming in PoliSci waters. Imagine if you were a diplomat and had to interact with 'Laughing' Harris, Uncle Joe and/or 'Honest' Donald Trump. Then for Trust, honesty and substance, you had to interact with Kushner or Witkoff!
The recent bombing by Trump was a glance back at yesteryear with Shock & Awe. Since the early 2000’s the U.S. moved to Strangulation. It was much more palatable for the taxpayers. We did not see our military dying or mutilated. It allowed propaganda to sink in.
Trump brought it back. It didn’t work. Everyone evolved. I suspect Strangulation will be the play over the long term: sanctions, embargo’s, no IMF, color revolutions, proxy forces, terrorists and pay offs for anyone in the regime.
The required forces are sitting in Syria.
Will Turkey keep them occupied?
Will the rest of the ME allow these shenanigans to continue?
Iran is an important node in the war on China, which is escalating.
I have a feeling the Philippines will be the East’s Ukraine.
None of this will ever end until those who stir the drink are held accountable.
Tangentially related, the treasury (i.e. Bessent) just expanded their refinancing program of buying the long end and selling the short end.
This by itself was a drop in the ocean - they went from 15 to 30 billion - but the effect was quite visible: yields down, dollar down, gold up a hundred. My mining stocks went up over 9% in a day FFS. Mining is leverage on material, because they make more profits even if the price for the stuff they mine doesn't keep rising.
There are a couple of theories going around, but it seems gold is pricing in that the Fed will join in with yield curve control, effectively the opposite of what they just announced. If they don't want to contradict themselves, they'll have to wait till mid September, but that seems to be the idea.
In the short term, it could also have been Bessent whacking the short sellers on the fingers.
A day doesn't make a trend, but it seems clear that things were starting to break in the bonds markets, now it remains to be seen if the Fed has the power to hold the dam against macro, and the war effects. My bet would be that they don't.
Thanks, very interesting. I'm not a bonds specialist, so actually had to read that twice 😅
What I don't see is the assumption that YCC isn't inflationary. Yes, the Fed will have to cut, which will be positive equities, but I'm really with George Gammon from Rebel Capitalist on this that the long end reacts to growth and inflation, not supply and demand.
His reasoning is that banks will simply buy at certain levels, because they only care about the spread between what they loan out and take in.
Bonds yields will not blow out. The hard cap for the 10y is at 5%. They're going to devalue the dollar, it's the only way out, and real inflation in the US (not the fake numbers) has likely been in the lower double digits for the past years.
Which is where dominance comes in. I just got through Jikh's latest on how AI debt has been pushed into the insurance systems via private equity, which has guaranteed taxpayer bailouts. It's 2008 all over again.
For now, I'm staying clear government bonds, and I'm using gold for wealth preservation instead. Maybe the author is right, and there's a trade on the long end, but I don't see it fulfilling the role as safe haven...
Thanks very much for your thoughts, Alex. Yes I thought it curious that he seemed to think the Treasury can introduce more liquidity and the Fed can lower the Fed Funds rate, thus increasing the money supply, without any negative impact on inflation. Gammon is absolutely right - thanks for the reference to him. "They're going to devalue the dollar, it's the only way out..." You are absolutely right. Well, it's the only avenue politically acceptable to them, especially given no matter what they do the fiscal debt problem is totally out of hand.
The big question is if they can pull this off without civil unrest. US consumers are already struggling, and the US is massively dependent on imported goods.
Lowering the dollar is necessary to rebuild industry, but together with the war-driven shortages, that's going to be a double hammer on inflation. Sure, they'll lie and say it's only 2%, but people see it at the grocery store.
Right now, the biggest problem is Trump and his inner circle. Pilkington mentioned it, every time Bessent tries something increasingly desperate, Trump wakes up and puts out a truth social post that counters it.
What ends up breaking first? The scary part is that last time yields hit this level, after the tariffs, Trump backed off. Not anymore.
I am left wondering if there is any concerted effort at messaging and actions within this administration. How many times have we seen contradictory statements come from Bessent and Trump, and Rubio and Trump, and Hegseth and Trump? How can the rest of the world have any faith in what any of them says? Or does?
We're in a Brave New World. I recently read that programmers in silicon Valley were demonstrating. They're afraid of losing their jobs. I wonder where AI fit in.
to finance WW2, "the FED capped yields to keep borrowing costs low and stable" and had to keep buying securities to maintain those low rates (servicing US debt), forfeiting control of its balance sheet and money stock; inflation (as defined then) hit 20% by 1951.
They need to get out of Triffin's dilemma, and they'll do it by crashing the dollar, a soft default on the debt, and Hamiltonian policies. It'll work, but the pain for non-asset holders will be immense. My biggest question is how they're going to cap civil unrest.
A “once-in-a-generation chance to reconsider its presence in the region.” That gave me my laugh for the day. That's one way of describing a crushing military and strategic defeat.
The market has yet to realize that there is no TACO for Trump.
Scenario 1: the US leaves the region and Iran is in control
Let’s assume that Trump decides that this war is too much, and he wants to leave the region. He folds completely, agrees to withdraw all of the troops, and hands Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran will immediately turn around, continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, and demand concessions from Israel. You see, to become a regional hegemon means that you need to eliminate all threats.
Israel, which sees the conflict with Iran as all-or-nothing (similar to how Iran sees the conflict with the US), will just escalate, which will force the US back into the fold. Israel could threaten to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, which would force Iran to retaliate against GCC energy infrastructure creating a permanently higher plateau for oil prices because of structural losses in production capacity.
This means that scenario 1 is not even a plausible path to pursue. Iran will escalate even if the US capitulates, and Israel will force the US to re-enter down the road.
But -- Israel will still be a problem that Iran will have to deal with, no matter China's preferences.
What creative solution will they come up with?
Israel had expectations on the shelf to ally with China, upon the decline of USA. China already controls significant assets in Israel.
Will China leverage those investments to act as a mediator between Israel and Iran?
Perhaps in such a scenario, China w/ Iran, + Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi Arabia, can shatter Trump's Board of Peace and bring about a decent settlement for the Palestinians.
Maybe a requirement of China-Iran-Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi Arabia (maybe add Egypt) will be de-nuclearization of Israel.
Since we're in fantasy land, maybe penalize Israel for its genocide by demanding disarmament: no air force for 30 years. Learn to get along with neighbors: any Israeli act of aggression results in total economic boycott. Put BenGvir & Randy Fine on a diet.
Some say that there are "many, many" American Jews standing in opposition to the Gaza genocide (perhaps fewer opposing war against Iran: lots of Jewish-Iranians in LosAngeles -- 'Tehrangeles' --with motivation similar to Cuban-Americans that Rubio represents).
Based on viewings of these organizations and Conferences,
In proceedings of both groups, which are financially supported by i.e. Paul Singer and other hedge fund billionaires,
--mention of Pager killings greeted with loud applause;
--opposition to killing of Palestinians in Gaza condemned as "hate." "antisemitism."
--Melanie Phillips calls Americans cowards for failing to more powerfully come to the aid of Israel
--Key purpose of both organizations is to educate young Jews as well as non-Jews to love Israel; that Jewish 'peoplehood' and zionism are unifying elements of Jewish identity.
Today Napolitano showed clips of BenGvir saying "30-40 Palestinians should be killed each day; they are not human."
With all their organizational and media power, where are the Jewish voices speaking out in opposition to such speech? (btw, Ben Gvir has political position and armed personnel to carry out the talk.)
"Some say that there are "many, many" American Jews standing in opposition to the Gaza genocide (perhaps fewer opposing war against Iran: ..."
I haven't attempted any sort of deep dive trying to come up with numbers, but I'm just not seeing the "many, many". And the presentation didn't change my mind. The polls I've seen don't really ask the deep, probing questions. I don't doubt the dislike for Netanyahu, but that's easy. When you start talking about Israel ever having been a "reasonable country" you're into a whole 'nuther ball game. That's a cherished delusion that exempts the holder from deeper questioning of cultural values.
Back in March 68% of American Jews were on board with war on Iran. By contrast, at the same point in time, overall American support was only at 40%, and has declined ever since. Per Nate Silver. That's an indication of a deep divide between American and Jewish views about a lot of things.
Polls and street interviews from Israel paint a bleak picture. It's not just a "far-right government", "people didn't know" or were just following orders. There's substantial support, and minority opposition.
Don't forget the wonderful Mark Levin, who is regularly on-air at Fox News ranting about how American youth need to sign up to get killed for Israel and how Trump needs to start nuking Iran immediately.
Truly, Mark is another life-affirming, peace-loving voice in the media wilderness!
The GCC paid for the US bases in the first place. I doubt that most of them will pay to rebuild them. It will be very expensive as the bulk of the bases will have to be mostly underground.
Maybe they can hire Iranian technical experts for cheap since the Iranian economy has been destroyed by our maximum pressure and those experts will be desperate for work? Maybe?
Agreed. Not sure where you're from, Realist, but I'm a Brit by birth. I've always hated places like Dubai because they attract the worst of the Brits and treat the Third Worlders who keep it going like dirt. Hopefully, it's gone forever now.
Trumpet is the reincarnation of Andrew Jackson AKA General Hairdoo the Master of Disaster.
Warhawk looking for a war. That is why we NOW have the DEPT of WAR. Staring a gay alcoholic
Petey HedgeHog. Buckle up for WW3 because rousting up Persia and/or Russia is Historically a BAD IDEA. Putin is the reincarnation of Caesar, then Napoleon. Each tackled the New World Odor of each historical era. Each Time, Lost the Fight. Third Time is the Charm. Putin has been quoted, He has NO FIGHT with the America People, but you might not want to live near a Military Installation.
I will enjoy watching the duplicitous Speaker Johnson (“we got into the conflict with Iran”) lose the House. Then we’ll watch this weak man fight the Democrats.
1) Ted Williams on baseball managers: "All managers are losers; they are the most expendable pieces of furniture on earth."
2) A Brian Eno lyric from decades ago:
“Oh headless chicken/Can these poor teeth take so much kicking?”
Johnson has had plenty of opportunities to organize the Republicans in the House to take action regarding Iran and military spending and he hasn't taken a single step to do so. Headless (brainless) chicken (coward) indeed! I expect his party will see its teeth kicked in as a result of its inaction.
Alastair Crooke‘S point is Israel won’t agree to any deal before October 30 election, so Trump is stuck.
https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/trump-mulls-raising-the-stakes-to?
Neutrality Studies, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6oGA8FRPIg
A super-transnational state, NATO, 3.0
Is the Collective West in disarray because of its absence of long term thinking? Or is it all a charade and the master minds are just really good at hiding what's actually going on? Well, we might be in for an even bumpier ride than we thought, not because the Western leadership is brilliant (they are mostly imbeciles), but the underlying sociological structure is not as short-sighted as one might assume.
Nel Bonilla, author of Worldlines, explains her “bunker state” framework and why she sees NATO 3.0 as a shift toward deeper military integration. She and Pascal Lottaz discuss NATO’s evolution, Europe’s defense industry, proxy warfare, conscription, public spending, the “global West,” and ways peace, labor, and neutrality movements could resist this change.
Instead of us being subjects of a country we identify with, we become objects of securitization in preparation for a state of permanent warfare. Apparently at Ankara, companies were ''promised'' it was safe to invest as this was a guaranteed long-term project.
00:00 Introduction and the bunker state
04:47 NATO 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0
16:16 Is NATO a node or a driver?
18:28 Silent social transformation in Europe
32:28 The Ankara summit and arms production
44:10 War readiness and proxy warfare
50:34 The end goal: a “global West”
54:08 The bunker state and social contract
57:00 Peace movements and alternatives
The troops and Mariners are "allegedly" being moved further west (to Occupied Palestine); but, if true, just to be out of "immediate reach" of Iranian pre-emptive and/or retaliatory strikes by Iran. Because, never forget: since the Brits (and I say that as a descendant of a common Anglo-Saxon/German heritage, it shames my heritage to even say!) learned, and was taught well, the fine art of duplicity in diplomacy, and mastered by the JSA : they are lying, NEVER believe them. It is now (FINALLY!) being widely known that one NEVER "makes a deal" with the American JOG. It will always be used as a trick to get sukuhs to drop their hands just enough so they can be sucker-punched/sneak-attacked again...never trust an "agreement", nor an "MOU" with the Saxons. All Honor left the battlefield since the War Of Northern Terror on the Confederacy, and has been long-gone ever since. And ordinary, typical American or Brit you can mostly count on; but NOT those occupied governments! They especially f-over even their own, until they need something and trick their citizens with some breadcrumbs. The point being : Iran is going to be massively bombed-and, yes, *nuked* (!!), by the (now) ISRAELI-led American military (!!), with a prompting by that "shitty little country" in Palestine. Another big "culling of the herd" is long overdue, OY! Blut Geld : always a "what a DEEEAL!" I hope someone will nuke Jew-rusalem! Not anything left to bitch at each other over, none of the Abrahamic lunatics!
Ivar, we haven't heard the phrase "ZOG" in a helluva long time. I wonder if it originated in the USA, Kanada, or England. The pondering is becuz I've heard similar things in Minsk, Grodno, Warszawa, Psov, Lwow... Different groups have their way of paraphrasing it. I'd list a few, but would screw up the spelling. Despite the cloudy sky and foggy weather, certainly over a billion humanoids know about what's constantly being swept under the rug.
As for your heritage, I feel your pain. Yrs ago I stopped taking the family to what use to be called 'The City of Lights.' Also we use to go to the POSK in London. We had friends in what use to be GB. I'd always say there's nothing like Eng tea. I believe it must be due to milk emanating from their cows. Lastly Henderson, of YouTube fame, has a film about checking out sites pertaining to his Anglo heritage. Plez consider checking it out. Very interesting.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/some-shattering-illusions-of-our-declining-empire/
Very good and certainly disturbing. "It is a hoax, untethered from the principles and ideals of our founders." I don't think there is any doubt there, now.
Here is a case that paints a very unflattering picture of "our" government which is supposed to be looking out for the best interests of its citizens:
"Jeffrey Tucker - founder and president of the Brownstone Institute, says top FDA and NIH officials told him that the purpose of the COVID-19 lockdowns were 'to delay the onset of natural immunity… until after the shots were online.'"
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/jeffrey-tucker-reveals-insidious-reason-lockdowns
As Mr. Wauck and others have stated regarding the government and it's interests, "The best government that money can buy."
Unfortunately, not for the common man's interests.
Fun fact about Turkey - they have more native reconnaissance satellite capability than Iran does.
Of course, this is a serious problem for Our Greatest Ally:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6kt%C3%BCrk-2#Israeli_objections
Excellent interview with Col Macgregor. Key points:
- on tactical nukes, it would be irrational to use them, but the people discussing this aren't rational
- parallel between how the British Empire broke down over the world wars and the current trajectory of the US/Israeli Empire
- seemingly irrational decisions made by the British in WW1, yet they were made regardless
- the power vacuum left by the impending implosion of power projection in the Middle East, how China picks up the pieces and the second-order effects for the US
https://www.youtube.com/live/HTDQft0gIYQ
He mentioned the Lego "comic" about MbS as Cash Cow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n_LT0RbHmU&t=27s
I just finished listening not long ago. It starts out a bit slowly but gathers steam. I found his conviction that we're going to have to get out fascinating.
I like this smartly chosen list of targets from Iran:
"Potential targets include bases in Bulgaria and Cyprus, as well as subsea cables in the Strait of Hormuz."
Why?
Because it shows the Iranians have a pretty good perception of the Western psyche.
The Iranians clearly understand Western youth are not going to flood recruiting offices and volunteer to get killed in response to attacks on Sofia, Bulgaria, a British airbase in Cyprus, or some subsea fiber optic cables in the Persian Gulf.
Yeah, but what about if they find weapons of mass destruction? There's always been enjoyment swimming in PoliSci waters. Imagine if you were a diplomat and had to interact with 'Laughing' Harris, Uncle Joe and/or 'Honest' Donald Trump. Then for Trust, honesty and substance, you had to interact with Kushner or Witkoff!
The recent bombing by Trump was a glance back at yesteryear with Shock & Awe. Since the early 2000’s the U.S. moved to Strangulation. It was much more palatable for the taxpayers. We did not see our military dying or mutilated. It allowed propaganda to sink in.
Trump brought it back. It didn’t work. Everyone evolved. I suspect Strangulation will be the play over the long term: sanctions, embargo’s, no IMF, color revolutions, proxy forces, terrorists and pay offs for anyone in the regime.
The required forces are sitting in Syria.
Will Turkey keep them occupied?
Will the rest of the ME allow these shenanigans to continue?
Iran is an important node in the war on China, which is escalating.
I have a feeling the Philippines will be the East’s Ukraine.
None of this will ever end until those who stir the drink are held accountable.
Tangentially related, the treasury (i.e. Bessent) just expanded their refinancing program of buying the long end and selling the short end.
This by itself was a drop in the ocean - they went from 15 to 30 billion - but the effect was quite visible: yields down, dollar down, gold up a hundred. My mining stocks went up over 9% in a day FFS. Mining is leverage on material, because they make more profits even if the price for the stuff they mine doesn't keep rising.
There are a couple of theories going around, but it seems gold is pricing in that the Fed will join in with yield curve control, effectively the opposite of what they just announced. If they don't want to contradict themselves, they'll have to wait till mid September, but that seems to be the idea.
In the short term, it could also have been Bessent whacking the short sellers on the fingers.
A day doesn't make a trend, but it seems clear that things were starting to break in the bonds markets, now it remains to be seen if the Fed has the power to hold the dam against macro, and the war effects. My bet would be that they don't.
For your consideration:
https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/sometimes-you-get-what-you-need
I have no comments one way or the other. I guess we wait and see.
Thanks, very interesting. I'm not a bonds specialist, so actually had to read that twice 😅
What I don't see is the assumption that YCC isn't inflationary. Yes, the Fed will have to cut, which will be positive equities, but I'm really with George Gammon from Rebel Capitalist on this that the long end reacts to growth and inflation, not supply and demand.
His reasoning is that banks will simply buy at certain levels, because they only care about the spread between what they loan out and take in.
Bonds yields will not blow out. The hard cap for the 10y is at 5%. They're going to devalue the dollar, it's the only way out, and real inflation in the US (not the fake numbers) has likely been in the lower double digits for the past years.
Which is where dominance comes in. I just got through Jikh's latest on how AI debt has been pushed into the insurance systems via private equity, which has guaranteed taxpayer bailouts. It's 2008 all over again.
https://youtu.be/_YXDHskRP6Y
For now, I'm staying clear government bonds, and I'm using gold for wealth preservation instead. Maybe the author is right, and there's a trade on the long end, but I don't see it fulfilling the role as safe haven...
Thanks very much for your thoughts, Alex. Yes I thought it curious that he seemed to think the Treasury can introduce more liquidity and the Fed can lower the Fed Funds rate, thus increasing the money supply, without any negative impact on inflation. Gammon is absolutely right - thanks for the reference to him. "They're going to devalue the dollar, it's the only way out..." You are absolutely right. Well, it's the only avenue politically acceptable to them, especially given no matter what they do the fiscal debt problem is totally out of hand.
Thanks again.
The big question is if they can pull this off without civil unrest. US consumers are already struggling, and the US is massively dependent on imported goods.
Lowering the dollar is necessary to rebuild industry, but together with the war-driven shortages, that's going to be a double hammer on inflation. Sure, they'll lie and say it's only 2%, but people see it at the grocery store.
Right now, the biggest problem is Trump and his inner circle. Pilkington mentioned it, every time Bessent tries something increasingly desperate, Trump wakes up and puts out a truth social post that counters it.
What ends up breaking first? The scary part is that last time yields hit this level, after the tariffs, Trump backed off. Not anymore.
Interesting times.
I am left wondering if there is any concerted effort at messaging and actions within this administration. How many times have we seen contradictory statements come from Bessent and Trump, and Rubio and Trump, and Hegseth and Trump? How can the rest of the world have any faith in what any of them says? Or does?
"The big question is if they can pull this off without civil unrest."
That's exactly what PP was also saying today.
We're in a Brave New World. I recently read that programmers in silicon Valley were demonstrating. They're afraid of losing their jobs. I wonder where AI fit in.
I meant to say, 2008 all over again, but in a fiscal dominance situation
YCC... the first rodeo:
to finance WW2, "the FED capped yields to keep borrowing costs low and stable" and had to keep buying securities to maintain those low rates (servicing US debt), forfeiting control of its balance sheet and money stock; inflation (as defined then) hit 20% by 1951.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/august/what-yield-curve-control
They need to get out of Triffin's dilemma, and they'll do it by crashing the dollar, a soft default on the debt, and Hamiltonian policies. It'll work, but the pain for non-asset holders will be immense. My biggest question is how they're going to cap civil unrest.
I think inter-ethnic rivalry will cap civil unrest in the US.
A “once-in-a-generation chance to reconsider its presence in the region.” That gave me my laugh for the day. That's one way of describing a crushing military and strategic defeat.
Interesting perspective:
HFI Research @HFI_Research
The market has yet to realize that there is no TACO for Trump.
Scenario 1: the US leaves the region and Iran is in control
Let’s assume that Trump decides that this war is too much, and he wants to leave the region. He folds completely, agrees to withdraw all of the troops, and hands Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran will immediately turn around, continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, and demand concessions from Israel. You see, to become a regional hegemon means that you need to eliminate all threats.
Israel, which sees the conflict with Iran as all-or-nothing (similar to how Iran sees the conflict with the US), will just escalate, which will force the US back into the fold. Israel could threaten to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, which would force Iran to retaliate against GCC energy infrastructure creating a permanently higher plateau for oil prices because of structural losses in production capacity.
This means that scenario 1 is not even a plausible path to pursue. Iran will escalate even if the US capitulates, and Israel will force the US to re-enter down the road.
Lose-lose.
Exactly. All those saying Trump should just walk way don't realise that the Iranians won't let him.
But -- will China counsel Iran to do otherwise?
But -- Israel will still be a problem that Iran will have to deal with, no matter China's preferences.
What creative solution will they come up with?
Israel had expectations on the shelf to ally with China, upon the decline of USA. China already controls significant assets in Israel.
Will China leverage those investments to act as a mediator between Israel and Iran?
Perhaps in such a scenario, China w/ Iran, + Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi Arabia, can shatter Trump's Board of Peace and bring about a decent settlement for the Palestinians.
Maybe a requirement of China-Iran-Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi Arabia (maybe add Egypt) will be de-nuclearization of Israel.
Since we're in fantasy land, maybe penalize Israel for its genocide by demanding disarmament: no air force for 30 years. Learn to get along with neighbors: any Israeli act of aggression results in total economic boycott. Put BenGvir & Randy Fine on a diet.
The war doesn't end until Israel has returned to its internationally accepted borders. Everything until then is a three-headed monkey.
You're too nice, Alex. The war doesn't end until Israel is destroyed as a nation. Any Israelis who still have a moral compass should leave now.
Some say that there are "many, many" American Jews standing in opposition to the Gaza genocide (perhaps fewer opposing war against Iran: lots of Jewish-Iranians in LosAngeles -- 'Tehrangeles' --with motivation similar to Cuban-Americans that Rubio represents).
Based on viewings of these organizations and Conferences,
ReCharging Reform Judaism
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLuBg2Cnn-FGEeQIlHegiZYCGL92_jQNZ7
Tikvah
https://lp.tikvah.org/jlc-2025
I'm not seeing it.
In proceedings of both groups, which are financially supported by i.e. Paul Singer and other hedge fund billionaires,
--mention of Pager killings greeted with loud applause;
--opposition to killing of Palestinians in Gaza condemned as "hate." "antisemitism."
--Melanie Phillips calls Americans cowards for failing to more powerfully come to the aid of Israel
--Key purpose of both organizations is to educate young Jews as well as non-Jews to love Israel; that Jewish 'peoplehood' and zionism are unifying elements of Jewish identity.
Today Napolitano showed clips of BenGvir saying "30-40 Palestinians should be killed each day; they are not human."
With all their organizational and media power, where are the Jewish voices speaking out in opposition to such speech? (btw, Ben Gvir has political position and armed personnel to carry out the talk.)
The Pager killings were a clarifying moment.
"Some say that there are "many, many" American Jews standing in opposition to the Gaza genocide (perhaps fewer opposing war against Iran: ..."
I haven't attempted any sort of deep dive trying to come up with numbers, but I'm just not seeing the "many, many". And the presentation didn't change my mind. The polls I've seen don't really ask the deep, probing questions. I don't doubt the dislike for Netanyahu, but that's easy. When you start talking about Israel ever having been a "reasonable country" you're into a whole 'nuther ball game. That's a cherished delusion that exempts the holder from deeper questioning of cultural values.
Back in March 68% of American Jews were on board with war on Iran. By contrast, at the same point in time, overall American support was only at 40%, and has declined ever since. Per Nate Silver. That's an indication of a deep divide between American and Jewish views about a lot of things.
Polls and street interviews from Israel paint a bleak picture. It's not just a "far-right government", "people didn't know" or were just following orders. There's substantial support, and minority opposition.
Don't forget the wonderful Mark Levin, who is regularly on-air at Fox News ranting about how American youth need to sign up to get killed for Israel and how Trump needs to start nuking Iran immediately.
Truly, Mark is another life-affirming, peace-loving voice in the media wilderness!
Justice would be driving Israel back to its 1948 border.
1849 border?
1498?
Happy with pre-1948.
"He was talked, or blackmailed, into the war by a psycho—the kind of person a narcissistic Genghiz Khan wannabe aspires to be. "
Yes, Trump is a titular president — a puppet- but the fact that he allows himself to be manipulated shows his total lack of integrity.
"Iran is giving Trump 3-4 weeks to comply with their demands, moving the onset of renewed full scale war a bit closer to the midterms."
Iran needs to get on with driving the United States out of the Middle East.
The GCC paid for the US bases in the first place. I doubt that most of them will pay to rebuild them. It will be very expensive as the bulk of the bases will have to be mostly underground.
Maybe they can hire Iranian technical experts for cheap since the Iranian economy has been destroyed by our maximum pressure and those experts will be desperate for work? Maybe?
I am not sure how “destroyed” Iran’s economy is. If it’s as “destroyed” as their military it’s in fine shape
I was joking that Iranians are desperate because of the "failure" of their underground bases and the "success" of Trump's maximum pressure. :/
:-)
Some of those GCC countries won't be around long enough to rebuild anything.
That would be great.
Agreed. Not sure where you're from, Realist, but I'm a Brit by birth. I've always hated places like Dubai because they attract the worst of the Brits and treat the Third Worlders who keep it going like dirt. Hopefully, it's gone forever now.
I live in northeast Illinois. North of Chicago
Trumpet is the reincarnation of Andrew Jackson AKA General Hairdoo the Master of Disaster.
Warhawk looking for a war. That is why we NOW have the DEPT of WAR. Staring a gay alcoholic
Petey HedgeHog. Buckle up for WW3 because rousting up Persia and/or Russia is Historically a BAD IDEA. Putin is the reincarnation of Caesar, then Napoleon. Each tackled the New World Odor of each historical era. Each Time, Lost the Fight. Third Time is the Charm. Putin has been quoted, He has NO FIGHT with the America People, but you might not want to live near a Military Installation.
I will enjoy watching the duplicitous Speaker Johnson (“we got into the conflict with Iran”) lose the House. Then we’ll watch this weak man fight the Democrats.
Mike Johnson is a Zionist who follows the script and directives.
"Speaker of the House Mike Johnson received the Dr. Miriam and Sheldon G. Adelson Defender of Israel Award"
https://zoa.org/2023/12/10449059-speaker-of-the-house-mike-johnson-headlined-zoas-speak-out-for-israel-dinner/
Two quotes come to my mind about Mike Johnson:
1) Ted Williams on baseball managers: "All managers are losers; they are the most expendable pieces of furniture on earth."
2) A Brian Eno lyric from decades ago:
“Oh headless chicken/Can these poor teeth take so much kicking?”
Johnson has had plenty of opportunities to organize the Republicans in the House to take action regarding Iran and military spending and he hasn't taken a single step to do so. Headless (brainless) chicken (coward) indeed! I expect his party will see its teeth kicked in as a result of its inaction.
The GOP have controlled all the political levers for a while now. They have accomplished nothing. They prefer being the loyal opposition.
Even worse than nothing!
The GOP are the Washington Generals to the Dems Harlem Globetrotters.
I have no particular love for any nation in that reason, but the real point is--what are we doing there?