Trump’s Long War

We all know that Trump thought his war on Iran would be a weekend war. He was talked, or blackmailed, into the war by a psycho—the kind of person a narcissistic Genghiz Khan wannabe aspires to be. Many people opt for blackmail because the whole thing was just so crazy—all truly rational and knowledgeable people knew there was no path to “victory,” whatever that might mean. I’m open to that explanation, although I can also see how Trump might be one of those real narcissists who delights in the idea that he can prove all the experts wrong, based on his “instincts.” In any event, Iran had different ideas—as the rational people had warned. And, as the war continues, Iran increasingly sees escalation and a long war as their best option, the best path to their goals.

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

6h

Trump wanted a short, fake war to loot oil and gold - like Venezuela.

Iran intends a long, real war to build deterence, resilience, security, hegemony.

Iran ends the US empire as Afghanistan ended the Soviet empire.

Watch US enlistment and reenlistment rates for signal. The cannon fodder always knows first when the war is lost.

Signal 1776 @Signal1776X

Benjamin Netanyahu goes fully psychotic and tells the world that he will single-handedly change the entire face of the Middle East, and that Israel will attack any country at any time.

“We will surprise them instead of them surprising us.”

“We are the attacking side. We are the initiating side.”

“We take the initiative. We attack.”

What could go wrong with a long war that includes shutting off a large percentage of global energy and other can’t-do-without resources—the war that Trump walked right into? Well, everything. I was just listening to Jeff Stein at Breaking Points talking about Trump’s desperation move to flood the bond market with liquidity via a massively inflationary support program. Wall Street luvs that, but as Stein put it, Trump’s war is risking the entire world economy:

Chris Martenson @chrismartenson 22h

You do understand that there’s no end to this until the economy is destroyed, right? If you do, you are in the minority and have taken steps to protect yourself, your family, and your community. If not, I wish you the very best of luck.

“Open and operating” translates into about one ship per day.

Trump’s tweet there was apparently in response to the deadlines and plans that Iran has been leaking to the world. Iran is giving Trump 3-4 weeks to comply with their demands, moving the onset of renewed full scale war a bit closer to the midterms. But here are some other news items in that regard. Could it be that Trump—having supposedly considered nukes over the weekend—was once again bluffing and is actually looking for a way to declare victory and get outta Dodge? That would be very popular with the US military, who never wanted this war. Interestingly, it seems that would also be popular with Speaker Mike Johnson, who is openly blaming the war for screwing the US economy—I guess he and his fellow GOP Reps have been getting an earful from constituents about this wildly unpopular war’s blowback. Here’s Johnson delivering that bad news to the Fox faithful:

Mike Johnson: “We put in this Congress into place all the economic conditions to let the economy take off like a rocket, and beginning in the first quarter of this year that’s what was happening, and then we got into the conflict with Iran ... that’s the big headwind we have right now.”

Well, that’s obviously a self serving story to deflect blame—Congress, which is a Jewish Nationalist owned shill-for-shekels subsidiary, knowingly gave Trump carte blanche for war—but the fact remains that Johnson is basically throwing Trump under the bus. Iran now views all that as a gift, and plans to double down:

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

20h

BREAKING: Iran has completed the groundwork for a “permanent toll system” routing all shipping through an Iranian-controlled “northern route” through the Strait of Hormuz, following recent meetings among Iran’s top officials, according to multiple senior Iranian sources in Tehran familiar with the matter.

The framework would give Iran authority over traffic management, transit permits, toll collection, and vessel services, generating up to $100 billion annually net at Iran’s previously announced 7% cargo value toll (~$385M per day, with a single VLCC carrying 2M barrels facing a ~$11M fee).

A toll has almost no cost of goods, so ~97% is pure profit, which would make the Strait as profitable as Alphabet ($132B in 2025), Nvidia ($120B FY2026), Apple + Microsoft (both $100B+), and Saudi Aramco ($105B), while representing ~15-20x Suez Canal’s all-time peak revenue.

Iran’s top officials emphasize that “reopening” the Strait requires meeting all of Iran’s demands including lifting of the US blockade, release of Iran’s frozen assets, and lifting of sanctions. The officials add that Trump’s recent threat to bomb Oman over the Strait may be a sign of Muscat’s agreement to Iran’s dominance.

.

BREAKING: The Trump administration is now weighing a reduction of US military presence in the Persian Gulf, evaluating a pullback of troops from the region where US bases have been “battered by months of Iranian strikes,” per WaPo citing 8 US officials.

This would be a major direct concession to Iran’s long-standing demand for the removal and significant drawdown of US forces from the vicinity of Iran and the Persian Gulf region, which is included in Iran’s new demand list for the Hormuz reopening.

The Pentagon has already signaled that it might not rebuild its US bases damaged by Iran as they were before the Iran war, calling it a “once-in-a-generation chance to reconsider its presence in the region.” CENTCOM Commander Admiral Bradley Cooper directly supports the idea of potentially moving US troops west from the Persian Gulf.

.

BREAKING: Trump orders US envoys to completely halt all possible future negotiations with Iran, per CNN.

A US official also tells CNN that the US has “informed allies it is in the process of changing its strategy toward Iran.”

This comes as Iran is preparing for a preemptive strike and has switched its policy from defensive to “fully offensive.”

The other words here are that Iran has no intention of allowing Trump any sort of face saving exit. Percipient observers have noticed and are predicting escalation:

Daniel Davis Deep Dive @DanielLDavis1

15h

This has vibes of George Bush giving the Taliban an ultimatum in October 2001, knowing that the terms were impossible for them to submit to; we were already going to war.

I think Iran has given us terms to open the SoH they know Trump can’t accept; they too are likely to attack.

.

Patarames @Pataramesh

Iran’s requirements for a MoU-revival would leave no room for Trump having a face-saving exit.

The market reacts accordingly

It’s likely that an unknown escalation event will happen by one of the sides

Something that would ironically reopen the doors for a deal once happened

Iran is busy making plans and they want the world to know about their plans. Countries outside the region that aided Trump’s war on Iran probably thought there’d by no risk to that foolish decision. They may find out differently:

Clash Report @clashreport

BIG: Iran is considering strikes on US military assets in Europe if Washington escalates the war.

Potential targets include bases in Bulgaria and Cyprus, as well as subsea cables in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials increasingly see renewed conflict as inevitable and warn that attacks on critical Iranian infrastructure could push the war beyond the Middle East.

Source: FT

Bulgaria? Yes. The US stationed refueling tankers in Sofia to refuel the B-1 and B-52 bombers making runs on Tehran.

Meanwhile, America’s greatest friend is busily pouring fuel on the fire:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW:  Israel informed Washington that its attack in Syria on Turkish assets was aimed to prevent a Turkish military buildup - Axios citing US and Israeli officials

One more way to keep the US fully engaged in the Middle East quagmire. Another Trump own goal.