Trump's Dilemma

In a very real sense, Donald Trump was elected under false pretenses. Trump swept his way back into the White House on a wave of populism evoked by his MAGA slogan. His appeal was to an overwhelming sense that America was headed in the wrong direction—economically as well as socially/culturally. What those voters didn’t realize was that Trump had had to make a deal with his key supporters, whose idea of American Greatness—while perhaps more realistic than that of Trump’s voters—differed sharply with regard to how that Greatness was to be maintained or regained. What those key supporters understood—something that most Americans have taken for granted—was the extent to which American Greatness, which in the conventional understanding amounts to economic well being, rests upon the role of the dollar as the world reserve currency. That status of the USD rests, in turn, on US military security guarantees, especially to key energy exporting countries in the Middle East. The Petro-Dollar has allowed the US to ride a wave of debt that distorted our domestic economy while providing a sense of well being that could only be maintained through an enormous military - intelligence complex, itself maintained by corporate interests. The degree to which these realities controls American policy was underlined by Trump’s early threat—directed at BRICS—to launch war on any countries that sought to displace King Dollar from its throne.

The reckless fiscal policies that fueled the illusion of greatness have finally come home to an America that is now deeply divided—socially and politically. There is a deep divide between the ruling class and the great majority of Americans. Rule is now maintained by deception and, increasingly, by the use of our security services—law enforcement and intelligence related services—to repress dissent against the establishment. The resulting discontent was harnessed by Trump’s populism, but the deal that Trump made rests to a great extent on maintaining the power of the ruling class, while offering only partial solutions to the dilemmas that ordinary Americans face. Thus, the Trumpian assault on wokeness has gained him considerable continuing support but, if his efforts to shore up the global hegemony of the Anglo-Zionist Empire fall short, there will be a steep price to pay.

In my understanding the deal that Trump made with the ruling class had several elements. The key element was to bring our ballooning debt under control. And this is where the Trumpian dilemma took root.The ruling class itself was divided to some extent—some favoring domestic fiscal measures of responsibility that Congress has never shown a willingness to submit to, while others favored a strategy of squeezing vassal states around the world—defined as all countries that relied on the dollar to transact their international trade. While Elon Musk’s DOGE did a remarkable job in exposing the depth of American fiscal irresponsibility—not to say chaos—it predicatably fell short, impaled not least by Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. That, of course, was entirely predictable. And so main hope for getting America’s debt and ballooning debt service under control was in Trump’s Tariff shock and awe.

This was essentially a scheme to force the rest of the world to pay down America’s debt, allowing the US to maintain its military hegemony and—this part wasn’t spoken out loud, camoflaged by the DOGE efforts—continue its domestic fiscal irresponsibility. This, in the end, amounts to kicking the can a bit further down the road. The hope was that the shock and awe approach of the Trumpian tariff onslaught would catch the world by surprise by its very enormity, forcing the world into line before they knew what had hit them. We’re now seeing that this hasn’t worked as hoped/planned—the world in general is resisting, led by China. What has been revealed for all to see is the tight linkage between the hegemonic dollar and US military might.

While America retains powerful military capabilities, the US military’s force projection capabilities have been revealed (or, perhaps, confirmed) by Trump’s misadventures—especially in Yemen—to no longer have the global reach that they previously were presumed to have. In fact, as Col. Larry Wilkerson maintained yesterday, it may well be that it is only the American nuclear arsenal that preserves the US military status. The reality is that the US is in no position to go head to head in a conventional war against Russia, China, or Iran. The Iranian example is especially important, because it is the one country with which the US is most likely to be drawn into a full scale war, rather than a proxy war. The result—while unpleasant for Iran—would likely be a US withdrawal from West Asia, which is the foundation for the Petro-Dollar.

From this we see that Trump’s MAGA plans have rested on a great gamble. A gamble that appears to be failing and even backfiring. Trump’s Russia - China policy has been predicated upon the need to thwart BRICS and maintain dollar hegemony. Where we see this most clearly is with Russia. Trump famously promised to do “peace” with Russia in 24 hours. Instead, what we now see clearly is that Trump is actually only pushing for a ceasefire that would be a defeat for Russia. Tellingly, Trump, in his negotiations, has been focused on preserving and advancing US economic interests both in Ukraine and in Russia—in effect, drawing Russia into the Anglo-Zionist orbit, not unlike during the Yeltsin years. Such a faux peace would have enabled the US pivot to China, but Putin has proven far too smart to fall for this. America’s attack on the Russian airbases, which turned out to be more of a pinprick that the decisive event that forced Putin into a bad ceasefire, has put paid to any credibility that Trump may have had. The likely outcome will now be that Russia will be forced to impose its own peace in Ukraine, and that will not be a pleasant prospect for the Anglo-Zionist Empire. Rather, that now looming defeat will shake the foundations of empire.

On the domestic front the US appears to be sliding toward recession. Trump is trying to head this off by summoning the Fed’s Powell to the White House to harangue him into lowering interest rates—thus reducing the ballooning debt service payments. Powell, probably because of the impact he fears Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will have on the US fiscal position, has stated that he is in no hurry to lower rates. It looks like Powell is wielding a blunt instrument in an effort to bring Congress to its senses. What’s important in this is that Powell must have powerful backers to engage in this type of confrontation. It reveals a split in the ruling class and is a sign that Trump may be losing its full support. Where he goes from here remains to be seen.

With that background and, let’s look at some of the news coming out today—unfortunately not totally logically arranged.

Anand Sanwal @asanwal

"Learn to code" they told us

Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi

There is a reason why only a few nations master the ability to fuel nuclear reactors. Apart from significant financial resources and political vision, it requires a solid industrial base and a technological-academic complex that can produce necessary human resources and know-how.

Iran has paid dearly for these capabilities, and there is no scenario in which we will give up on the patriots who made our dream come true.

To reiterate:

No enrichment, no deal.

No nuclear weapons, we have a deal.

Trita Parsi @tparsi

Trump wants Russia's help in securing a nuclear deal with Iran. Russia was helpful in earlier nuclear talks. It can be so again. But Putin will likely tell Trump to drop "zero enrichment." That demand is what is delaying the talks. Dropping it is key to getting a deal.

Dominic Michael Tripi @DMichaelTripi

NEW: ADL CEO Jonathan Greenblatt calls for strict censorship on X, Instagram, & TikTok saying antisemites must be removed once & for all.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

 Lee Jae-myung, a pro-China candidate was elected as the new President of South Korea

Megatron @Megatron_ron

 Trump says China's Xi is 'Extremely Hard To Make a Deal With'

Trump Says China's Xi Is "Very Tough And Hard To Make Deal With"

Megatron @Megatron_ron

 Something big is coming

Russia's Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has arrived in Pyongyang for high-level talks with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.

The last time it arrived with such urgency, the North Korean army appeared in Kursk.

Listening to John Helmer as I write. He says he was told by a high level source that, while a major Oreshnik strike was probably not imminent, a limited one could be delivered “to help Trump focus.” That is in line with Trump’s admission that in his call today with Putin, Putin “did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond.” Helmer stressed that his sources stressed that “nothing the Americans say can be trusted. The Trump administration is playing a double game. Russia’s goal is to avoid nuclear war.” Important response to some commenters: Helmer states that supposed Ukr attack on Russia’s Severomorsk sub base was Ukr disinformation. Never happened.

Trump Breaks Silence On Brazen Ukraine Drone Op In Lengthy Putin Call

After two days of deafening silence from the White House …

Megatron @Megatron_ron

 Former State Department spokesman Matt Miller from Biden's administration states that "without a doubt Israel has committed War crimes in Gaza."

He also added that he defended these crimes not in his name but in the name of the US government.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: President Trump says Fed Chair Powell is "unbelievable" and "must now lower rates."

This comes minutes after the ADP Employment report showed the weakest job growth number in 2+ years.

Powell continues to state he is in "no hurry" to cut rates.

Lin Jian 林剑 @SpoxCHN_LinJian

Chinese Premier Li Qiang met in Beijing with a delegation led by Yohei Kono, president of the Japanese Association for the Promotion of International Trade (JAPIT).

…

China and Japan should leverage their unique strengths to deepen cooperation and achieve win-win outcomes. China will firmly expand high-level opening-up and welcome more foreign-funded enterprises, including those from Japan, to develop in China.

(Reuters) -Japan and the U.S. on Friday agreed to hold another round of trade talks ahead of the G7 summit next month, Japan's top tariff negotiator said, stressing that no deal would be without concessions on all Washington's tariffs, including on autos.

David Shoebridge @DavidShoebridge

The arrogance is shocking. Australia is not just a pot of money for the US military. Australia needs to be an independent and peaceful force in the world. That does not happen by footing the US's bills and buying US weapons that threaten our neighbours.

Smart move by Putin:

Putin holds phone call with Pope

Kiev is seeking escalation and targeting civilian infrastructure, the Russian president told the pontiff, according to the Kremlin

Ukraine is deliberately escalating the ongoing conflict by targeting civilian infrastructure within Russian territory, President Vladimir Putin has told Pope Leo XIV.

According to the Kremlin, the Russian leader and the Pontiff held “a constructive” phone conversation on Wednesday, during which they discussed a number of topics, including the Ukraine conflict.

Putin pointed out that against a backdrop of resumed direct talks between Moscow and Kiev, the Ukrainian leadership is “doubling down on escalation [and] conducting acts of sabotage against civilian infrastructure on Russian territory.” He described the recent acts of railway sabotage in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk Regions as terrorism, the Kremlin stated.

The Russian president confirmed that Moscow is interested in settling the conflict through political and diplomatic means, but stressed that its root causes should be addressed to ensure a lasting peace.

Briefing the Pope on the progress made during the latest round of direct negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul, Türkiye on Monday, Putin said that the two sides had agreed on exchanging prisoners and the bodies of the dead.

He emphasized that Russia is doing everything it can to ensure the reunification of the children who have been separated from their families during the course of the conflict, according to the Kremlin.

Putin also drew the pontiff’s attention to the persecution of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church by Kiev authorities, the Kremlin said. He voiced hope that the Holy See would more actively support religious freedom in Ukraine.

Putin thanked the head of the Catholic church “for his willingness to assist in resolving the crisis” as well as the Holy See’s role in mediating pressing humanitarian issues between Moscow and Kiev.

The Russian head of state and the Pope agreed to strengthen bilateral ties and to intensify efforts aimed at protecting Christians worldwide, the statement read.