The world is indeed on fire, both literally and figuratively. I myself have been inexplicably angrier over the last few years. However, as individuals we can resist flawed yet normalized human/societal nature thus behavior; and if enough people do this and perform truly humane acts, positive change on a large(r) scale may result.
Perhaps somewhat relevant to this are the words of American sociologist Stanley Milgram, of Obedience Experiments fame/infamy: “It may be that we are puppets — puppets controlled by the strings of society. But at least we are puppets with perception [and] awareness. And perhaps our awareness is the first step to our liberation.”
Still, it could be that the human race so desperately needs a unifying fate-determining common cause, that an Earth-impacting asteroid threat or, better yet, a vicious extraterrestrial attack is what we have to collectively brutally endure in order to survive the longer term from ourselves.
Humanity would all unite for the first time ever to defend against, attack and defeat the humanicidal multi-tentacled ETs, the latter needing to be an even greater nemesis than our own formidably divisive politics and perceptions of differences, both real and perceived — especially those involving race and nationality.
During this much-needed human alliance, we’d be forced to work closely side-by-side together and experience thus witness just how humanly similar we are in the ways that really count. [Then again, I was told that one or more human parties might actually attempt to forge an alliance with the ETs to better their own chances for survival, thus indicating that our deficient human condition may be even worse than I had originally thought.]
Yet, maybe some five or more decades later when all traces of the nightmarish ET invasion are gone, we'll inevitably revert to those same politics to which we humans seem so collectively hopelessly prone — including those of scale: the intercontinental, international, national, provincial or state, regional and municipal. And again we slide downwards.
My assessment of trump at this point is this, in two short months, he has to a degree destroyed himself with his foreign policies along with some of his economic policies and the obsession with tariffs.
The good Will he started out with he has squandered. He has an obsession about Iran. He has bought in to Israel and Netanyahu‘s vision of genocide and total war in the Middle East to help. Israel accomplish its unrealistic goals. He now owns what’s going on in Gaza and he can’t defend it.
If he wants to get out of the overseas wars, then the only practical solution is to cut off Israel munitions, wise and foreign wise they’ve already destroyed their own economy. We’re propping them up.
The next thing he’s going to have to do is just swallow his pride make a deal with Putin and in the Ukraine war . If he wants to end up trying to focus on domestic policy in this country, he’s gonna have to do this and do that quickly or end up being a disaster. It may end up being a disaster anyway.
I frankly don’t have that much confidence in him at this point.
" Trump, in his inaugural address, declared that he wants to be remembered as a “peacemaker.”
In the greatest line from that speech, he said, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end—and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” "
"Re Yemen, Trump says he’ll keep bombing until the Houthis say: ‘No mas!’ Which isn’t likely to happen for two reasons. The Houthis don’t speak Spanish, and they’ve said they will simply escalate:"
Really great points throughout the article
I am most interested in one, which I believe bolsters the argument that Russia and China desire to uphold the UN rules at most every turn possible I have written before ' by the book '.
And I think that is exactly what they shall do - also Iran of course as a member of Brics - but I imagine Yemen is now under their wing. I imagine Yemen is receiving Russia China guidance strategy intelligence and I opine Trump does not know what he is getting into in good part because Hegseth was a very poor decision, and immature youngster with no experience and limited knowledge but anxious to show he is a team player -
Hegseth to me is looking at ' retirement ' say by August or perhaps the end of the year. He is really that bad,
The Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) was admitted to the UN on 30 September 1947 [A/RES/108 (II)]. The People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) was admitted to the UN on 14 December 1967
Article 51 UN Charter The key elements are:
Inherent Right of Self-Defense: This applies only "if an armed attack occurs" against a UN member state.
Collective Self-Defense: States can act together to defend a victim of an armed attack.
Reporting Requirement: Actions taken in self-defense must be reported to the Security Council.
Security Council Authority: Self-defense measures are temporary until the Council acts.
So I opine, what TRUMP is doing is stationed B-52 s within striking distance and waiting for Yemen to divulge areas of munitions Trump is waiting for Yemen to strike back and watching and with AI and satellite etc trying to determine weak points
So Trump is provoking Yemen to act, and therefore disclose bombing targets
Yemen would be best to sit and wait and do nothing ' big ' maybe a few small rockets or drones easily mobile, but ride out the US in the red sea the US cost of the mission is some 12 million a day if not more, and these Ships are said not to be able to stay say cannot wait more than say 3 - 4 months out there without replacement
Advice: Yemen should formally claim self-defense against U.S. strikes as an "armed attack" on its territory, reporting this to the Security Council. Russia would argue U.S. actions violate Yemen’s sovereignty under Article 2(4) (prohibiting use of force), while Article 51 allows Yemen to resist.
Rationale: Russia’s January 2024 condemnation of U.S.-U.K. strikes as "illegal bombing" and China’s abstention on Resolution 2722 (demanding Houthi cessation) suggest they’d frame U.S. actions as aggression, not lawful self-defense.
Seek Collective Defense:
Advice: Request Russian, Chinese, or Iranian support under collective self-defense, arguing U.S. attacks threaten Yemen’s allies (e.g., Iran, via Houthi ties). This could include arms or intelligence, citing Article 51’s collective clause.
Rationale: Russia’s abstention from the 2015 Houthi arms embargo (Resolution 2216) and Iran’s backing show willingness to bolster Yemen against Western moves. China’s neutrality on Houthi strikes (e.g., June 2024 abstention) might limit its role to diplomatic support.
Challenge U.S. Legal Basis:
Advice: Contest U.S. self-defense claims in the Security Council, asserting Houthi shipping attacks don’t meet Article 51’s "armed attack" threshold against the U.S. itself, and demand Council intervention to halt U.S. operations.
Rationale: Russia’s Nebenzia (December 2024) called Western strikes "disproportionate," and China’s calls for "restraint" (e.g., Guterres’ March 2025 echo) align with pushing diplomatic pressure over military escalation.
Escalate Strategically:
Advice: Continue Houthi Red Sea operations to pressure the U.S., but frame them as defensive measures against American/Israeli aggression, tying them to Gaza solidarity to split international opinion.
Rationale: Russia and Iran see Houthis as a proxy to counter U.S. influence (Atlantic Council, March 2025), and China benefits from disrupted Western trade routes, indirectly supporting escalation without direct involvement.
I opine Yemen is the key, in terms of at least 3 critical issues, i) monetary, ii) time and delay, iii) reputation/credibility
and I believe given these critical factors make Yemen far more important near term than Iran, and is therefore US and Israel primary goal [ for the B 52s and other military action ] Iran is somewhere down the list.
Israel reportedly incurred due to the Houthi prior blocking of the red sea billions of USD $$$ in additional shipping cost, fuel, personnel, this is critical due to the extensive damages Israel economy has suffered and also means US has to give Israel more money
but also time delay in getting product to Israel - Israel has to wait month(s) to get product instead of weeks [ product is all manners of consumer goods as well a military goods - both being necessities ] as well as quantity of goods shipped
[ the same ships could have made 3 return trips]
and reputation/credibility - the resistance sees what a small Yemen can accomplish and this builds resistance
If Yemen plays by the UN book as Russia China Iran do, then Yemen Russia China Iran are also gathering worldwide support and the US Israel are forced to abandon the book and continue to lose respect and credibility
Perhaps very noteworthy that the US is bombing Yemen alone currently ( with aide from UK ) eg: no NATO coalition would it be interesting if NATO is afraid, too many muslim immigrants/neighborhoods wouldn't that be something, other reasons perhaps NATO does not have the monies, NATO is upset with US about Ukraine,
I also imagine EU has a greater concern that the Muslim Immigrant Communities in EU Nations would be so disruptive, protests, destruction that comes with protests, and perhaps worse a risk of attacks, that the EU countries have neutered themselves to some extent.
Mr. W -- did you see and have insight on this from Kuntsler -- assume is true, would this actually color CJR and sway his thinking?
So far, obviously, the SCOTUS has not yet come to issue that decision. Many of you worry that they will fail to, because Chief Justice John Roberts appears to be somehow under the influence of the Deep State. Let’s have a look. Sheldon Snook is Special Assistant to Chief Justice Roberts, and is deeply involved in the day-to-day management of the SCOTUS. Sheldon Snook is married to Mary McCord. Ms. McCord has been a leading actor, via her various roles in the Deep State, in the seditious operations against President Trump since 2017.
We may find out soon. Kunstler doesn't do much more than point to connections that, yes, are disturbing. However--with a major exception in Obamacare--those connections don't appear to have had great influence over his jurisprudence. OTOH, what's poorly understood is that, while Roberts' incrementalism can be very frustrating, it has proven largely effective while not transformative. There are a number of factors at play.
Lower court outrages get lots of headlines, but that's not the whole story.
While Zhou was able to appoint large numbers of District Court radicals, Trump 1.0 was able to transform the Appellate Courts to a very great extent--DC is an exception. That strategy is starting to pay off as Trump is starting to win some of these legal battles as the cases gradually percolate up to the Appellate level.
Roberts is, typically, waiting for the "just right" case to step in. We may find that out soon enough because he has asked for responses on the deportation case by Monday--responding to the DoJ request for SCOTUS to step in. DoJ has been well prepared for these cases and the lower courts have made some missteps (by the accounts of legal types that I follow).
DOGE prevailed in another case with the 4th Circuit ruling that it can resume cutting USAID programs: "While defendants’ role and actions related to USAID are not conventional, unconventional does not necessarily equal unconstitutional."
Today District Judge Ana Reyes told the fired inspectors general that she is inclined to rule in favor of President Trump and decline to restore them to their positions. **I expect Trump to win many of these actions to reduce or replace federal employees.**
The DC Circuit Court of Appeals just ruled 2-1 that the injunctions blocking Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport alleged Venezuelan gang members can remain in place as courts review the matter.
Shipwreckedcrew @shipwreckedcrew:
**The decisions today from the 4th Circuit and the DC Circuit are why CJ Roberts isn't in a hurry to have SCOTUS jump into every fight.**
**Yes, the activist district judges are making a mess of things, but appeals courts are busy doing their work in cleaning up some of the messes without SCOTUS getting involved.**
Where that does't work, then SCOTUS will need to decide whether to get involved.
It can be frustrating, but that is the design of the system of appellate review.
That’s the danger point in my view. If Robert’s sides with a rogue- activist judge in name only I would expect anger and chaos to rule. People are questioning Roberts independence from influence or acting out in accordance to his distaste for Trump.
The headline isn't really news and Iran's position--which is supported by Russia and China--hasn't really changed. Iran has long said that they're open to negotiating with the US, but only on a limited range of issues, like, nuclear weapons development. Trump is making demands that would compromise Iranian sovereignty, so I doubt they will negotiate on anything like that. OTOH, some agreement on issues Iran is willing to deal with could provide an opportunity for Trump to declare victory--while US/Israel inflict max carnage and chaos in Western Asia.
Trump's playbook is the Art of the Deal and Putin is playing chess like Victor Korchnoi, he finds weaknesses that no one else sees. In regard to attacking Iran, the US military is both predictable and obvious in its intentions and planning. No US or Israeli personnel will enter Iranian airspace and all operations will be conducted via standoff missiles and guided bombs. The game plan is to disable Russian AD with an EMP nuke and then penetrate into Iran with a second wave strike at the main targets. Everything hinges on the EMP working. That is the weakness of the plan, and I expect that Russia has already anticipated and prepared a suitable interdiction.
Fascinating comment, but I haven't seen anything in all the internet Iran commentary about a preemptory nuclear EMP attack to blind Iranian air defenses. Think of the irony. We use a nuclear attack to prevent someone from getting nukes!
But seriously, we're not going to set off a nuke just to get an EMP. You have to have a really large airburst to get a large EMP over hundreds of miles, and the explosion would be worse than anything we have ever seen since 1945. A nuclear attack would mean nuclear war, one way or another, and it would be the end of America.
However, the US does have non-nuclear EMP weapons, but these only target small areas. Such a non-nuclear attack would have to target air defenses all over Iran with NN-EMPs. But, if NN-EMPs work, why have we spent decades developing 5th and 6th gen stealth fighters and bombers to attack air defenses and vital targets? The reality is that we would still have to risk aircraft, and we've already found out from the aborted Israeli attack on Iran that our 5th gen F35s can't penetrate the Iranian air defenses.
For many reasons, an attack on Iran would be a disastrous, bloody mess, and the weaknesses of American force projection would be exposed. I'm not sure the Pentagon is really willing to take that risk.
Not a nation killing EMP, but a small tactical EMP to clear a corridor of entry and blind the AD radars sufficient to get penetration into the interior at select targets. And yes, it must be a nuclear device. Nothing new here, it SOP for first strike missions of this type. And it will be limited to a demonstration only on a few key facilities that support nuclear fuel enrichment. And the mission hinges on Trump's negotiation with Putin. He wants Russia to either coerce Iran into a deal or stand down and allow the strike. Trump is on the clock and he needs Russia/Iran to blink or the mission is a go. Yes, it will likely fail, but chaos will ensure regardless and that also accomplishes a geopolitical goal. He sends a message to the entire planet that he is serious about his many threats.
With all due respect to the POTUS, there is simply no way in hell that Vladimir Putin gets “snookered” by anybody and especially about Ukraine or any peripheral issues or countries. Never. Gonna. Happen.
The world is indeed on fire, both literally and figuratively. I myself have been inexplicably angrier over the last few years. However, as individuals we can resist flawed yet normalized human/societal nature thus behavior; and if enough people do this and perform truly humane acts, positive change on a large(r) scale may result.
Perhaps somewhat relevant to this are the words of American sociologist Stanley Milgram, of Obedience Experiments fame/infamy: “It may be that we are puppets — puppets controlled by the strings of society. But at least we are puppets with perception [and] awareness. And perhaps our awareness is the first step to our liberation.”
Still, it could be that the human race so desperately needs a unifying fate-determining common cause, that an Earth-impacting asteroid threat or, better yet, a vicious extraterrestrial attack is what we have to collectively brutally endure in order to survive the longer term from ourselves.
Humanity would all unite for the first time ever to defend against, attack and defeat the humanicidal multi-tentacled ETs, the latter needing to be an even greater nemesis than our own formidably divisive politics and perceptions of differences, both real and perceived — especially those involving race and nationality.
During this much-needed human alliance, we’d be forced to work closely side-by-side together and experience thus witness just how humanly similar we are in the ways that really count. [Then again, I was told that one or more human parties might actually attempt to forge an alliance with the ETs to better their own chances for survival, thus indicating that our deficient human condition may be even worse than I had originally thought.]
Yet, maybe some five or more decades later when all traces of the nightmarish ET invasion are gone, we'll inevitably revert to those same politics to which we humans seem so collectively hopelessly prone — including those of scale: the intercontinental, international, national, provincial or state, regional and municipal. And again we slide downwards.
My assessment of trump at this point is this, in two short months, he has to a degree destroyed himself with his foreign policies along with some of his economic policies and the obsession with tariffs.
The good Will he started out with he has squandered. He has an obsession about Iran. He has bought in to Israel and Netanyahu‘s vision of genocide and total war in the Middle East to help. Israel accomplish its unrealistic goals. He now owns what’s going on in Gaza and he can’t defend it.
If he wants to get out of the overseas wars, then the only practical solution is to cut off Israel munitions, wise and foreign wise they’ve already destroyed their own economy. We’re propping them up.
The next thing he’s going to have to do is just swallow his pride make a deal with Putin and in the Ukraine war . If he wants to end up trying to focus on domestic policy in this country, he’s gonna have to do this and do that quickly or end up being a disaster. It may end up being a disaster anyway.
I frankly don’t have that much confidence in him at this point.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/on-iran-what-would-pat-buchanan-do/
Thanks Mark duly noted quote
" Trump, in his inaugural address, declared that he wants to be remembered as a “peacemaker.”
In the greatest line from that speech, he said, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end—and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” "
Oh, well.
"Re Yemen, Trump says he’ll keep bombing until the Houthis say: ‘No mas!’ Which isn’t likely to happen for two reasons. The Houthis don’t speak Spanish, and they’ve said they will simply escalate:"
Really great points throughout the article
I am most interested in one, which I believe bolsters the argument that Russia and China desire to uphold the UN rules at most every turn possible I have written before ' by the book '.
And I think that is exactly what they shall do - also Iran of course as a member of Brics - but I imagine Yemen is now under their wing. I imagine Yemen is receiving Russia China guidance strategy intelligence and I opine Trump does not know what he is getting into in good part because Hegseth was a very poor decision, and immature youngster with no experience and limited knowledge but anxious to show he is a team player -
Hegseth to me is looking at ' retirement ' say by August or perhaps the end of the year. He is really that bad,
The Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) was admitted to the UN on 30 September 1947 [A/RES/108 (II)]. The People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) was admitted to the UN on 14 December 1967
Article 51 UN Charter The key elements are:
Inherent Right of Self-Defense: This applies only "if an armed attack occurs" against a UN member state.
Collective Self-Defense: States can act together to defend a victim of an armed attack.
Reporting Requirement: Actions taken in self-defense must be reported to the Security Council.
Security Council Authority: Self-defense measures are temporary until the Council acts.
So I opine, what TRUMP is doing is stationed B-52 s within striking distance and waiting for Yemen to divulge areas of munitions Trump is waiting for Yemen to strike back and watching and with AI and satellite etc trying to determine weak points
So Trump is provoking Yemen to act, and therefore disclose bombing targets
Yemen would be best to sit and wait and do nothing ' big ' maybe a few small rockets or drones easily mobile, but ride out the US in the red sea the US cost of the mission is some 12 million a day if not more, and these Ships are said not to be able to stay say cannot wait more than say 3 - 4 months out there without replacement
Attrition is the US weakness
I asked GROK what Yemen should do:
Invoke Article 51 Defensively:
Advice: Yemen should formally claim self-defense against U.S. strikes as an "armed attack" on its territory, reporting this to the Security Council. Russia would argue U.S. actions violate Yemen’s sovereignty under Article 2(4) (prohibiting use of force), while Article 51 allows Yemen to resist.
Rationale: Russia’s January 2024 condemnation of U.S.-U.K. strikes as "illegal bombing" and China’s abstention on Resolution 2722 (demanding Houthi cessation) suggest they’d frame U.S. actions as aggression, not lawful self-defense.
Seek Collective Defense:
Advice: Request Russian, Chinese, or Iranian support under collective self-defense, arguing U.S. attacks threaten Yemen’s allies (e.g., Iran, via Houthi ties). This could include arms or intelligence, citing Article 51’s collective clause.
Rationale: Russia’s abstention from the 2015 Houthi arms embargo (Resolution 2216) and Iran’s backing show willingness to bolster Yemen against Western moves. China’s neutrality on Houthi strikes (e.g., June 2024 abstention) might limit its role to diplomatic support.
Challenge U.S. Legal Basis:
Advice: Contest U.S. self-defense claims in the Security Council, asserting Houthi shipping attacks don’t meet Article 51’s "armed attack" threshold against the U.S. itself, and demand Council intervention to halt U.S. operations.
Rationale: Russia’s Nebenzia (December 2024) called Western strikes "disproportionate," and China’s calls for "restraint" (e.g., Guterres’ March 2025 echo) align with pushing diplomatic pressure over military escalation.
Escalate Strategically:
Advice: Continue Houthi Red Sea operations to pressure the U.S., but frame them as defensive measures against American/Israeli aggression, tying them to Gaza solidarity to split international opinion.
Rationale: Russia and Iran see Houthis as a proxy to counter U.S. influence (Atlantic Council, March 2025), and China benefits from disrupted Western trade routes, indirectly supporting escalation without direct involvement.
Thanks for the thoughts. I largely agree. The difficulty of effective, sustained, action against Yemen is poorly understood, despite years of failure.
Thanks Mark, I greatly appreciate your writing
Yemen is critical in my opinion
I opine Yemen is the key, in terms of at least 3 critical issues, i) monetary, ii) time and delay, iii) reputation/credibility
and I believe given these critical factors make Yemen far more important near term than Iran, and is therefore US and Israel primary goal [ for the B 52s and other military action ] Iran is somewhere down the list.
Israel reportedly incurred due to the Houthi prior blocking of the red sea billions of USD $$$ in additional shipping cost, fuel, personnel, this is critical due to the extensive damages Israel economy has suffered and also means US has to give Israel more money
but also time delay in getting product to Israel - Israel has to wait month(s) to get product instead of weeks [ product is all manners of consumer goods as well a military goods - both being necessities ] as well as quantity of goods shipped
[ the same ships could have made 3 return trips]
and reputation/credibility - the resistance sees what a small Yemen can accomplish and this builds resistance
If Yemen plays by the UN book as Russia China Iran do, then Yemen Russia China Iran are also gathering worldwide support and the US Israel are forced to abandon the book and continue to lose respect and credibility
Perhaps very noteworthy that the US is bombing Yemen alone currently ( with aide from UK ) eg: no NATO coalition would it be interesting if NATO is afraid, too many muslim immigrants/neighborhoods wouldn't that be something, other reasons perhaps NATO does not have the monies, NATO is upset with US about Ukraine,
Well stated.
I quoted recently a top US official (Waltz?) saying that Euros can't participate because they don't have adequate defenses to Houthi missiles.
I also imagine EU has a greater concern that the Muslim Immigrant Communities in EU Nations would be so disruptive, protests, destruction that comes with protests, and perhaps worse a risk of attacks, that the EU countries have neutered themselves to some extent.
But no one can say that publicly.
Mr. W -- did you see and have insight on this from Kuntsler -- assume is true, would this actually color CJR and sway his thinking?
So far, obviously, the SCOTUS has not yet come to issue that decision. Many of you worry that they will fail to, because Chief Justice John Roberts appears to be somehow under the influence of the Deep State. Let’s have a look. Sheldon Snook is Special Assistant to Chief Justice Roberts, and is deeply involved in the day-to-day management of the SCOTUS. Sheldon Snook is married to Mary McCord. Ms. McCord has been a leading actor, via her various roles in the Deep State, in the seditious operations against President Trump since 2017.
https://www.kunstler.com/p/bedlam-pending
We may find out soon. Kunstler doesn't do much more than point to connections that, yes, are disturbing. However--with a major exception in Obamacare--those connections don't appear to have had great influence over his jurisprudence. OTOH, what's poorly understood is that, while Roberts' incrementalism can be very frustrating, it has proven largely effective while not transformative. There are a number of factors at play.
Lower court outrages get lots of headlines, but that's not the whole story.
While Zhou was able to appoint large numbers of District Court radicals, Trump 1.0 was able to transform the Appellate Courts to a very great extent--DC is an exception. That strategy is starting to pay off as Trump is starting to win some of these legal battles as the cases gradually percolate up to the Appellate level.
Roberts is, typically, waiting for the "just right" case to step in. We may find that out soon enough because he has asked for responses on the deportation case by Monday--responding to the DoJ request for SCOTUS to step in. DoJ has been well prepared for these cases and the lower courts have made some missteps (by the accounts of legal types that I follow).
Jonathan Turley @JonathanTurley:
DOGE prevailed in another case with the 4th Circuit ruling that it can resume cutting USAID programs: "While defendants’ role and actions related to USAID are not conventional, unconventional does not necessarily equal unconstitutional."
Today District Judge Ana Reyes told the fired inspectors general that she is inclined to rule in favor of President Trump and decline to restore them to their positions. **I expect Trump to win many of these actions to reduce or replace federal employees.**
The DC Circuit Court of Appeals just ruled 2-1 that the injunctions blocking Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport alleged Venezuelan gang members can remain in place as courts review the matter.
Shipwreckedcrew @shipwreckedcrew:
**The decisions today from the 4th Circuit and the DC Circuit are why CJ Roberts isn't in a hurry to have SCOTUS jump into every fight.**
**Yes, the activist district judges are making a mess of things, but appeals courts are busy doing their work in cleaning up some of the messes without SCOTUS getting involved.**
Where that does't work, then SCOTUS will need to decide whether to get involved.
It can be frustrating, but that is the design of the system of appellate review.
That’s the danger point in my view. If Robert’s sides with a rogue- activist judge in name only I would expect anger and chaos to rule. People are questioning Roberts independence from influence or acting out in accordance to his distaste for Trump.
Iran willing to have indirect negotiations with the US
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/indirect-negotiations-nuclear-issue-possible-iran-finally-replies-letter-trump
The headline isn't really news and Iran's position--which is supported by Russia and China--hasn't really changed. Iran has long said that they're open to negotiating with the US, but only on a limited range of issues, like, nuclear weapons development. Trump is making demands that would compromise Iranian sovereignty, so I doubt they will negotiate on anything like that. OTOH, some agreement on issues Iran is willing to deal with could provide an opportunity for Trump to declare victory--while US/Israel inflict max carnage and chaos in Western Asia.
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
 IRGC Navy Commander: "No one can hit us and run, even if we have to chase them in the Gulf of Mexico, and we will do that" (Tasnim)
This isn't diplomacy and these are not the words of a peacemaker:
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
If you want peace with someone, you don't threaten them with "bad bad things"
Quote
DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics
 Trump:
"My big preference is we work it out with Iran. But if we don't work it out, bad bad things are gonna happen with Iran."
Trump's playbook is the Art of the Deal and Putin is playing chess like Victor Korchnoi, he finds weaknesses that no one else sees. In regard to attacking Iran, the US military is both predictable and obvious in its intentions and planning. No US or Israeli personnel will enter Iranian airspace and all operations will be conducted via standoff missiles and guided bombs. The game plan is to disable Russian AD with an EMP nuke and then penetrate into Iran with a second wave strike at the main targets. Everything hinges on the EMP working. That is the weakness of the plan, and I expect that Russia has already anticipated and prepared a suitable interdiction.
Fascinating comment, but I haven't seen anything in all the internet Iran commentary about a preemptory nuclear EMP attack to blind Iranian air defenses. Think of the irony. We use a nuclear attack to prevent someone from getting nukes!
But seriously, we're not going to set off a nuke just to get an EMP. You have to have a really large airburst to get a large EMP over hundreds of miles, and the explosion would be worse than anything we have ever seen since 1945. A nuclear attack would mean nuclear war, one way or another, and it would be the end of America.
However, the US does have non-nuclear EMP weapons, but these only target small areas. Such a non-nuclear attack would have to target air defenses all over Iran with NN-EMPs. But, if NN-EMPs work, why have we spent decades developing 5th and 6th gen stealth fighters and bombers to attack air defenses and vital targets? The reality is that we would still have to risk aircraft, and we've already found out from the aborted Israeli attack on Iran that our 5th gen F35s can't penetrate the Iranian air defenses.
For many reasons, an attack on Iran would be a disastrous, bloody mess, and the weaknesses of American force projection would be exposed. I'm not sure the Pentagon is really willing to take that risk.
https://science.howstuffworks.com/e-bomb3.htm
Not a nation killing EMP, but a small tactical EMP to clear a corridor of entry and blind the AD radars sufficient to get penetration into the interior at select targets. And yes, it must be a nuclear device. Nothing new here, it SOP for first strike missions of this type. And it will be limited to a demonstration only on a few key facilities that support nuclear fuel enrichment. And the mission hinges on Trump's negotiation with Putin. He wants Russia to either coerce Iran into a deal or stand down and allow the strike. Trump is on the clock and he needs Russia/Iran to blink or the mission is a go. Yes, it will likely fail, but chaos will ensure regardless and that also accomplishes a geopolitical goal. He sends a message to the entire planet that he is serious about his many threats.
I agree. Using a nuke would be--all practicality aside--totally nuts.
With all due respect to the POTUS, there is simply no way in hell that Vladimir Putin gets “snookered” by anybody and especially about Ukraine or any peripheral issues or countries. Never. Gonna. Happen.
Trump is a man who believes his own bullshit. And it has worked remarkably well overall for him over the last 78 years. He’s not gonna change now.
The only thing that will change is that someone's finally going to call his bluff.
Yup, everything goes according to plan until someone smashes him in the mouth. Then……….what?
Trump will probably say, "Look what I did to his fist with my teeth. No-one else could have done that!"