In a very brief article at the Newspaper of Record for Trump 2.0—the NYPost—Miranda Devine quotes President Trump confirming that he has been speaking with President Putin in person—in person by telephone, that is.
" But he [Trump] believes Putin “does care” about the killing on the battlefield."
From all reports, whether or not true is up to the reader to decide
Putin has appeared reluctant to kill Russia speaking population in Ukraine as well as in Israel; I believe this true - and you can tell from the way the US EU not only pays Ukraine to round up civilians to fight, but conditions additional monies and weapons on it - US EU could not give a damn.
There is a background - Trump has to dump Ukraine immediately - it is a quagmire when his focus is on Israel - whether that is his time in negotiation, monies ( having billions available to give Israel ) or weapons. China obviously a lurking concern.
Biden administration and US Senate/Congress dug the hole deep; Very difficult, eg: US Corporations have invested heavily in Ukraine ( 2022 when things appeared to be going well ) so no on wants to leave ( eg: Lindsey Graham screaming natural resources )
Whether Trump dumps Ukraine on the EU or just walks away he has to dump it quick
US is overextended - eg: my opinion, much of this finding money from USAID etc... will be quickly diverted to Israel. Trump has to scrape what he wants out of Ukraine, as much as he can get and leave.
Those idiots dug the hole so deep, if only they had settled in Istanbul.
President Trump: ‘I'm Committed to Buying and Owning Gaza’
President Trump said Gaza will be “a good site for future development.” He also suggested Palestinians will not have a right to return since he is planning on building a separate “permanent” place for them
Putin aims to ensure that the situation in Ukraine will never ever arise again. That means he will, at the very least, advance to the Dnieper and take Odessa. He won't do any deal because he will never trust any Western mediator, including Trump, who has blown his credit in that department after a mere three weeks. In addition, he knows that even if a deal is signed that pleases everyone, Trump is gone in 4 years and who's to say that the neocons won't once more slither out of wherever they hide during daylight hours and start the whole malarky rolling once more?
I generally agree--all things being equal as things now stand, this makes total sense to me. This is why I've always questioned the idea that Russia would stop at the Dnieper. I also agree that the Russians have no particular reason to do Trump any favors or to trust him or America--all else being equal. What could change this would be MAJOR concessions from America, perhaps regarding base locations, NATO membership, sea access through the Baltic, Black, and Arctic seas. Such major concessions probably would be impossible without additional agreements that fundamentally changed matters as they stand now. I suggest arms control agreements, which could sway public--and thus political--opinion in the West. Or maybe something my imagination can't grasp at this point.
Failing something like that the Russians will take a very hard line. The key here is that Trump needs cover for virtually any agreement, because the Russians are determined to guarantee their security interests and will not agree to anything that the American side has floated so far. OTOH, the Russians would like an actual agreement rather than simply the imposition of a de facto status quo. For that, Russia may need to offer--not concessions but--additional agreements that will be attractive to the West. It's possible. Likely? I dunno.
I could see Trump eventually offering a real concession, but for me, I don't see how the Russians would ever trust him. If whoever comes after him tears it up, the Russians are back to square one. We shall see. Keep up the great work, Mark!
I tend to agree at this point. Initially (when the writing was on the wall that a second Trump administration was in the works), I thought that the "wins" Trump could claim in giving Putin his full list of demands (all Russian advances (minimally, the 4 eastern oblasts plus Crimea) recognized, a fully-demilitarized and mutually-secured Ukraine, legitimately-elected Uke government, negative assurance regarding NATO membership, etc.) were (i) some tangible disarmament successes (this will still be key to US face-saving) and (ii) a rump Ukraine that spared Odessa and Black Sea access. With all the blundering and blustering so far in Trump 2.0, I now agree with the consensus here that Russia will keep pushing until its needs are fully met. This includes Odessa.
One of Mercouris’ finest analyses - tx for that long transcript! I hope that Kellogg and Waltz (and Trump) realize the urgency and the gravity of the moment, for the sake of nothing less than the future of the Eurasian continent…time is indeed of the essence. And as has been said, time is on the Russians’ side. Bottom line: Trump has no leverage w the Russians - time to get real.
The latest news--which looks like more good news--is that a high level US delegation that includes Vance, Rubio, Waltz, and Hegseth is heading over to Europe to explain what's up to the vassals.
Ha! Opportune moment! Maybe this high-level group can enlist the stellar diplomatic skills of Tom Cruise of “Final Reckoning” fame - to ensure the success of its mission to the gittery Euros! He happens to be in Paris to be awarded the Grande Médaille for his contribution to aviation…
The Dnieper River down to and including Odessa (Danube Canal) offers a first class geographical border; add a 150 km wide strip to the west of the Dnieper as neutral zone and let the EU have the rest; not that it is particularly desirable. Or make everything west of the Dnieper neutral like Austria. NATO will be coming apart as soon as the EU has to fund and Turkey goes to war with Israel.
Sundance from CTH personally ventured over to Russia to see for himself the mood and atmosphere of Russia and how their sanctioned economy appeared at least on the surface. He seemed to come away with the perception that the average Russian was in it to win it, and that the western sanctions were ineffective to everyday Russians. Another fine mess our government “experts” have gotten us into.
As SMH notes below, the geniuses did not think it would be a good idea to do what Sundance did. I think the source of this is actually their own arrogance. It's been in our government for decades, think of McNamara and Vietnam, and then really jumped up with Obama. These morons truly believe they are the smartest people in the world, so no need to ask the peasants what they think. Now that I think about it, it started with Wilson and company stating that the smart, educated people can run things better than the average citizen and his personal decision. Asshats definitely an appropriate word.
DF: Do you suppose that any of these foreign policy geniuses thought it’d be a good idea to send someone to Russia to do some “man on the street”? Nah, way too obvious and reeks of common sense, certainly wouldn’t want that to get loose.
This is going to make the domestic front seem like a Sunday afternoon picnic! As you, and most insightful observers, have noted, Trump has an empty sack and absolutely no leverage. Putin is holding four aces in his hand and time is on his side, it’s going to be interesting to see how DJT plays this one out.
" But he [Trump] believes Putin “does care” about the killing on the battlefield."
From all reports, whether or not true is up to the reader to decide
Putin has appeared reluctant to kill Russia speaking population in Ukraine as well as in Israel; I believe this true - and you can tell from the way the US EU not only pays Ukraine to round up civilians to fight, but conditions additional monies and weapons on it - US EU could not give a damn.
There is a background - Trump has to dump Ukraine immediately - it is a quagmire when his focus is on Israel - whether that is his time in negotiation, monies ( having billions available to give Israel ) or weapons. China obviously a lurking concern.
Biden administration and US Senate/Congress dug the hole deep; Very difficult, eg: US Corporations have invested heavily in Ukraine ( 2022 when things appeared to be going well ) so no on wants to leave ( eg: Lindsey Graham screaming natural resources )
Whether Trump dumps Ukraine on the EU or just walks away he has to dump it quick
US is overextended - eg: my opinion, much of this finding money from USAID etc... will be quickly diverted to Israel. Trump has to scrape what he wants out of Ukraine, as much as he can get and leave.
Those idiots dug the hole so deep, if only they had settled in Istanbul.
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TRUMP YE
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I'M COMMITTED TO BUYING AND OWNING GAZA.
President Trump: ‘I'm Committed to Buying and Owning Gaza’
President Trump said Gaza will be “a good site for future development.” He also suggested Palestinians will not have a right to return since he is planning on building a separate “permanent” place for them
https://www.wsj.com/video/president-trump-im-committed-to-buying-and-owning-gaza/2B1F3F77-2422-4138-A9D6-1521DE0AAEDE?mod=heardonthestreet_trending_now_video_pos5
“especially not if the USA dithers” please correct, otherwise an excellent article
Putin aims to ensure that the situation in Ukraine will never ever arise again. That means he will, at the very least, advance to the Dnieper and take Odessa. He won't do any deal because he will never trust any Western mediator, including Trump, who has blown his credit in that department after a mere three weeks. In addition, he knows that even if a deal is signed that pleases everyone, Trump is gone in 4 years and who's to say that the neocons won't once more slither out of wherever they hide during daylight hours and start the whole malarky rolling once more?
I generally agree--all things being equal as things now stand, this makes total sense to me. This is why I've always questioned the idea that Russia would stop at the Dnieper. I also agree that the Russians have no particular reason to do Trump any favors or to trust him or America--all else being equal. What could change this would be MAJOR concessions from America, perhaps regarding base locations, NATO membership, sea access through the Baltic, Black, and Arctic seas. Such major concessions probably would be impossible without additional agreements that fundamentally changed matters as they stand now. I suggest arms control agreements, which could sway public--and thus political--opinion in the West. Or maybe something my imagination can't grasp at this point.
Failing something like that the Russians will take a very hard line. The key here is that Trump needs cover for virtually any agreement, because the Russians are determined to guarantee their security interests and will not agree to anything that the American side has floated so far. OTOH, the Russians would like an actual agreement rather than simply the imposition of a de facto status quo. For that, Russia may need to offer--not concessions but--additional agreements that will be attractive to the West. It's possible. Likely? I dunno.
I could see Trump eventually offering a real concession, but for me, I don't see how the Russians would ever trust him. If whoever comes after him tears it up, the Russians are back to square one. We shall see. Keep up the great work, Mark!
I tend to agree at this point. Initially (when the writing was on the wall that a second Trump administration was in the works), I thought that the "wins" Trump could claim in giving Putin his full list of demands (all Russian advances (minimally, the 4 eastern oblasts plus Crimea) recognized, a fully-demilitarized and mutually-secured Ukraine, legitimately-elected Uke government, negative assurance regarding NATO membership, etc.) were (i) some tangible disarmament successes (this will still be key to US face-saving) and (ii) a rump Ukraine that spared Odessa and Black Sea access. With all the blundering and blustering so far in Trump 2.0, I now agree with the consensus here that Russia will keep pushing until its needs are fully met. This includes Odessa.
One of Mercouris’ finest analyses - tx for that long transcript! I hope that Kellogg and Waltz (and Trump) realize the urgency and the gravity of the moment, for the sake of nothing less than the future of the Eurasian continent…time is indeed of the essence. And as has been said, time is on the Russians’ side. Bottom line: Trump has no leverage w the Russians - time to get real.
The latest news--which looks like more good news--is that a high level US delegation that includes Vance, Rubio, Waltz, and Hegseth is heading over to Europe to explain what's up to the vassals.
Ha! Opportune moment! Maybe this high-level group can enlist the stellar diplomatic skills of Tom Cruise of “Final Reckoning” fame - to ensure the success of its mission to the gittery Euros! He happens to be in Paris to be awarded the Grande Médaille for his contribution to aviation…
https://www.msn.com/en-in/travel/news/tom-cruise-gets-grande-medaille-for-significant-contribution-to-aviation/ar-AA1yIT8d
The Dnieper River down to and including Odessa (Danube Canal) offers a first class geographical border; add a 150 km wide strip to the west of the Dnieper as neutral zone and let the EU have the rest; not that it is particularly desirable. Or make everything west of the Dnieper neutral like Austria. NATO will be coming apart as soon as the EU has to fund and Turkey goes to war with Israel.
Sundance from CTH personally ventured over to Russia to see for himself the mood and atmosphere of Russia and how their sanctioned economy appeared at least on the surface. He seemed to come away with the perception that the average Russian was in it to win it, and that the western sanctions were ineffective to everyday Russians. Another fine mess our government “experts” have gotten us into.
As SMH notes below, the geniuses did not think it would be a good idea to do what Sundance did. I think the source of this is actually their own arrogance. It's been in our government for decades, think of McNamara and Vietnam, and then really jumped up with Obama. These morons truly believe they are the smartest people in the world, so no need to ask the peasants what they think. Now that I think about it, it started with Wilson and company stating that the smart, educated people can run things better than the average citizen and his personal decision. Asshats definitely an appropriate word.
DF: Do you suppose that any of these foreign policy geniuses thought it’d be a good idea to send someone to Russia to do some “man on the street”? Nah, way too obvious and reeks of common sense, certainly wouldn’t want that to get loose.
This is going to make the domestic front seem like a Sunday afternoon picnic! As you, and most insightful observers, have noted, Trump has an empty sack and absolutely no leverage. Putin is holding four aces in his hand and time is on his side, it’s going to be interesting to see how DJT plays this one out.
Russians should require disband NATO ,
Fix pipeline, unfreeze assets, drop sanctions,
Apologize for starting the war.