Transnistria--Neocon Pipedream?

Yesterday in All Eyes Are On … Transnistria, after pointing out some of the possible motives behind the flurry of activity down along Dniester way, I remarked:

There are two possibilities—either or both, if you will. One is that the Ukrainians very much need to distract Russia from the Donbas, where the Ukrainian forces are getting crushed by Russian bombardment. The other is that Russia maintains an arsenal in Transnistria, and the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition—the arsenal is rumored to contain enough ammunition for decades of war. That seems an exaggeration, and each of these possibilities appear to me to be difficult, but never say never in the Balkans:

This morning I came across a Twitter thread that expands on exactly what those difficulties are, very much along the lines I had in mind. However, with a tip of the hat to commenter Thewakka, I want to first point out a strong indication of where this ploy is coming from—our Neocons:

Marco Rubio @marcorubio

Get familiar with #Transnistria You will soon be hearing a lot more about it

Imagine a young, and rather tiny, boy growing up in Florida, running for high office with dreams of justice for Moldova in his mind. What a platform to garner votes in … Florida? Where people have never heard of Moldova—probably confusing it with Lower Slobovia—much less Transnistria. Right. Who’s paying Little Marco? Wikipedia notes:

After the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Transnistria declared it would maintain its neutrality in the situation and denied claims that it would assist in the attack on Ukraine. However, in early March, American senator Marco Rubio suggested that a Transnistrian involvement in the conflict would take place without any apparent evidence.

Anyway, I also did some checking on that massive Russian arsenal located in Transnistria, and it turns out to be a somewhat interesting story. Why in the world would such a facilty be located there? Wikipedia has the answer:

The Cobasna ammunition depot is a large ammunition depot located in the village of Cobasna. Legally and internationally recognized as part of Moldova as a whole, the unrecognized breakaway state of Transnistria controls the village and the ammunition depot and has denied access to international observers, an exception being the so-called peacekeeping military forces of Russia located in the region ever since the end of the Transnistria War in 1992 …. The ammunition depot was created in the 1940s, when Transnistria was under the former Soviet Union (USSR). At the time, it held important strategic value.

The Cobasna ammunition depot has been referred to as one of the largest if not the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe and contains up to 20,000 tons of Soviet-era weapons from the 14th Guards Army of the USSR and also from the former states of Czechoslovakia and East Germany. Currently, it is guarded by around 1,500 Russian soldiers. Ever since Russia's conflict with Ukraine, there has been growing distress in Moldova for the Cobasna ammunition depot, with some believing that the weapons there could be used in a potential future military conflict. Additionally, the Academy of Sciences of Moldova determined that an explosion of the weapons located in the ammunition depot, which passed their expiry date long ago, would be equivalent to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Concern for such an event increased following the 2020 Beirut explosion.

No doubt Ukraine would be glad to take custody of those 20,000 tons of gear, but it seems hardly likely to happen. Armchair Warlord explains:

Alright team, quick afternoon thread on the Transnistrian military and what Ukraine is likely attempting to do by staging provocations in this pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova.

Bottom line is that a Ukrainian invasion is probably impossible right now.

Transnistria exists because the Soviet 14th Guards Army was stationed in the region when the Soviet Union collapsed, and its servicemembers and local supporters were unwilling to accept Moldovan rule. Its military is almost entirely equipped out of old 14th Guards stocks.

The Russians have stationed a brigade in Transnistria as peacekeepers ever since the end of fighting in 1992. Looking at their unit entries on Wikipedia, this amounts to two motorized infantry battalions and a security battalion, without artillery. Not a huge force.

Transnistria proper, however, has an absolutely gigantic military considering that it's a country you could walk across for your daily exercise at some points. They have four brigades.

The population of Transnistria is somewhere south of half a million people. You can read about their military at the link.

This considerably more than Latvia or Estonia can muster.

Reading between the lines of their Wiki entry, these brigades seem to be "NATO-style" units with the usual 3:1 infantry-artillery ratio, and modest armored support. Some of their vehicle are also quite clanky, such as the rather whimsical BTRG-127, converted from a minelayer.

The Transnistrian authorities have also had two months to prepare for a possible invasion at this point. It's likely they're as ready as they'll ever be to defend their country.* Reserves called up, defenses prepared, etc.

* diplomatic recognition is quite limited

This has implications for the size of force Ukraine would have to muster to successfully invade. Rule of thumb is you need 3:1, although this can be offset with firepower.

Which means Ukraine would probably need to dedicate eight brigades to the mission.

Not only do I doubt the Ukrainians have eight brigades in the region, even on paper, the units that are there have been mangled by combat with the Russians in Kherson. They would have to disengage and redeploy them to attack Transnistria. This would take weeks.

This would also leave Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog exposed and vulnerable to attack - which would then lead to this Ukrainian invasion force being attacked from behind and destroyed.

Right now the Ukrainians apparently have two brigades screening Transnistria, likely low-quality Territorial Defense troops. They would be of minimal value elsewhere, and the effort it would take to "free" them would be well in excess of the reward and an incredible risk.

Of course, it's not impossible that the Ukrainians actually plan to do this - people make stupid war plans all the time. However, only idiots (and the British) think that the solution to operational problems on one front is to go open up another one on the other side of the map.

I believe Armchair Warlord has something like the Gallipoli Campaign in mind.

Thus, these recent Ukrainian provocations in Transnistria are likely a feint, intended to create pressure on Russia to relieve the enclave rather than doing the operationally-smart thing and attacking north to Krivoy Rog, which would cripple the Ukrainian defense of the Donbass.

It is unlikely the Russians will take the bait.

Addendum: There's been talk of some crazy Romanian operation to seize Transnistria, but I don't see that as remotely credible.

Addendum 2: There's also a very large ammunition depot in Transnistria, formerly used by the 14th Army. There's been some talk about Ukraine going after it to replenish their ammunition reserves, but the Russians likely have the place rigged to blow in that event.

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Operational problems in the Donbas, so try to create a diversion in Transnistria? Sounds par for the course for our Neocon geostrategists.