To The Brink--And Beyond!

Readers may be aware that professional yacker Edward Luttwak recently published an article at Unherd that has some people worked up—pro and con. Luttwak, for those unfamiliar with him, is a pretty typical Neocon. That means that he’s a relentless self promoter of a highly ideological point of view and inhabits an echo chamber with others of the same persuasion. He’s been wrong countless times, but is never humbled or discouraged by the experience and never learns. He is said to advise the State Department, which should come as no surprise. His article argues that NATO needs to insert its forces into Ukraine to—and this is the counterintuitive part—avoid a catastrophic defeat. Hmmm. I skimmed the article the other day but decided that life is too short to waste words on such nonsense.

I thought readers might be interested in some perspectives on this goofiness, for the simple reason that—goofy as it may be—goofs like Luttwak have influence. That’s thanks to the Israel Lobby. Later today I hope to spend some time on some of what lies behind this way of thinking, which helps explain why the Neocons are able to con so many people so much of the time. Anyway, here’s a sample of responses to the article:

SIMPLICIUS Ѱ @simpatico771

A few points:

1. They will suffer an even *MORE* "catastrophic" defeat if they send people, for obvious reasons.

2. All NATO combined can muster maybe 100-200k men at most. Russia has an entire NEW 500k man army already waiting for them outside of Ukraine, and hundreds of thousands of more reserves (counting conscripts, national guard, and many others--at least 300-400k in total) that are already trained and ready and can come in at any time if need be.

Also, since Lukashenko has stated if Russia is attacked by NATO, he will come to Russia's aid, you can add Belarusian army as well. It may not be much but it's at least another 50k men if not more.

Quote

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - --@GeromanAT

NATO countries will have to send soldiers to Ukraine, otherwise they will accept a catastrophic defeat” - US State Department consultant E. Luttwak

• In order to prevent a “catastrophic defeat” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Britain, France and the countries of Northern Europe are already preparing to send troops to Ukraine.

• We are talking about small elite units and support staff.

• According to Luttwak, this will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to relieve some of the burden in the rear and send more Ukrainian military personnel to the front.

• In his opinion, the United States cannot provide more than 40 thousand people due to the threat of China's invasion of Taiwan, so Germany, France, Italy and Spain should provide their military personnel.

Will Schryver reposted

Will Schryver @imetatronink

And, of course, the most important point, as I see it, is that: even if 200k NATO combat effectives could be assembled in Ukraine, they could NOT be equipped and sustained for anything approximating "high-intensity warfare".

They would lack coordination, leadership, air power, logistics, and a coherent strategic objective. They would amount to little more than a confused disjointed mob that would flee after their first encounter with overwhelming Russian firepower.

Any proposals for direct NATO intervention in this war are #BatshitCrazy silly talk by clueless people who lack understanding of how this war has played out to date, and how woefully unprepared western militaries are to prosecute such warfare.

7:12 AM · Apr 4, 2024

That was just a warm up for Michael Vlahos. Vlahos knocks this out of the park in the first paragraph.

Michael Vlahos @Michalis_Vlahos

What makes the Luttwak philippic interesting is not what Luttwak is saying — But rather the extraordinary distance outside of actual reality that he and the Western courtier class now inhabits.

[Ed has been a friend and colleague: Which is to say, I have known him for 40 years, almost always sparring strenuously in academic settings, and our boisterous conversations have always been amicable — but in almost every instance, I have disagreed. Like now.]

The key takeaway from his argument, which no one should miss or dismiss, is this: Luttwak explicitly tells us that he now believes — suddenly, like so many privileged others in the Imperial Court — that a war between NATO/UKR and RUS/BLR could never escalate to nuclear use.

Right. Don’t try that at home. And for God’s sake don’t let goofs like Luttwak exercise any actual influence over policy. Ain’t no coming back from this one if he gets it wrong, but when you’re intoxicated with your own self promotion and by your spiel, well, who’s even considering those possibilities?

The sticky 'fly in the ointment' is this: Such a war would quickly, and inevitably, escalate within the expanding conventional framework of such a war itself. The consequences would be these:

First — this would no longer be a war in UKR, but rather, a war that would be fought across Europe. The network of NATO bases would all be hit by hypersonics (and other effective penetrators). NATO troop concentrations — inside and outside UKR — would be hit as well. 000's of NATO troops would die.

Moreover, the war would quickly expand to the littoral seas, and then the oceans. The approaches to EU ports would be mined, and many Western ships would be sunk. Military installations in European cities would be hit (as in UKR), setting off an uncontainable "madness of crowds."

Second — NATO forces would face not only defeat on the ground — in UKR — but storied debacle as well. Escalation here inevitably leads to a greater and more historically degrading defeat than simply letting UKR make peace on RUS terms.

Third — NATO conscription would lead to revolutions that would topple governments across EUR, followed by the fall of both NATO and the EU. Try on late autumn, 1918, across the compass of Europe.

In the ensuing panic and absolute hysteria, US 'leaders' might very well spasm into nuclear use.

***In other words, the threat of nuclear initiation most likely now lies in the West (just as it is in another fraught 'region' whose warcry we stoke — and here it lies, not in Iran, but in Israel).***

Luttwak is just one of our own elite class of "sleepwalkers" leading civilization, as in 1914, to the brink: And beyond!

https://unherd.com/2024/04/its-time-to-send-nato-troops-to-ukraine/…

5:12 PM · Apr 4, 2024

I continue to be of the view that actual military professionals are fully aware of how insane the Neocons are and will recoil from full on war with Russia—somehow. On the other hand, Vlahos is correct, IMO, to stress the dangers of escalation in the Middle East. The war in Ukraine might well end within a few months, possibly even sooner. The war in the Middle East, which also involves NATO and various BRICS nations, is not going to end any time soon. And Israel is doing everything it can to escalate the US into a full on kinetic role in the war.

This is why the upcoming elections are so important. There’s not much else we can do to exercise influence.