The State Of The Israel - Iran War

The overall progress and current state of the war seems clear enough.

The war was initiated based on the typical Jewish Nationalist fantasy that their sneak attack on Iran would either collapse the Iranian state or buy enough time to get the US military involved. Neither has proven true. Despite Netanyahu’s televised pleas to Iranians, the Iranian people have rallied around their government—Netanyahu has given up those absurd efforts in favor of gaslighting Israelis that things aren’t so easy for him, either.

Much more worrying, the idea that Israel would be able to blunt the Iranian response to buy sufficient time to get America involved is looking more dubious by the day. The Iranians quickly regained their footing after the Israeli sneak attack and, within 18 hours, were striking back. We now see that perhaps the most effective Israeli attacks have been the drone and car bomb assassinations—Iran’s inventory of ballistic missiles hasn’t been affected and its air defense is increasingly effective. The Israeli claims of air superiority were exposed as lies—essentially a Jewish Nationalist ‘c’mon on, the water’s fine’ type call out for immediate US involvement. Trump’s yackety yack about “two weeks” is almost certainly a deception ploy, because Israel needs direct and intense US involvement yesterday.

The basic Iranian strategy has been to utilize its older ballistic missiles first. These missiles are somewhat vulnerable to interception, but successful interceptions—which are not guaranteed in any event—require the expenditure of numerous very expensive and difficult to replace interceptors. Videos have shown as many as 14 interceptors being fired at a single missile—unsuccessfully. The result is that Israel finds itself in the position of needing to ration its interceptors—most likely, allowing some strikes in urban areas while intensively defending Nevatim air base, where US planes can land and bring in replacement interceptors.

This development, in turn, is allowing relatively low tech Iranian drones and cruise missiles to get through. In the meantime, Iran continues to hold most of its most advanced missiles in reserve—presumably for use against US bases like Prince Sultan, in KSA. These more advanced missiles are almost certainly immune to interception. Only the best for the US.

These developments are being documented in Israeli media:

Sprinter Observer @SprinterObserve

12h

Yedioth Ahronoth, citing the Israeli military:

– Iran will probably recover from Israeli strikes.

– Iran has begun to rebuild its air defense systems, and Israel is monitoring these efforts.

– Iran has effective surveillance systems and has resumed launching anti-aircraft missiles.

Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai

5h

In less than 24 hours, 40 Iranian drones struck multiple Israeli-controlled sites, reinforcing Iran’s message: the war that Israel—backed by the United States—unleashed on the Islamic Republic will not end with calm for its initiators. Tehran is ensuring that both the Israeli military and society remain in a constant state of vigilance and insecurity.

As the conflict threatens to spill over into a broader regional confrontation, Iran must prioritise the expansion and strategic dispersal of its drone and missile stockpiles. Preparing for a prolonged war and potential multi-front escalation is no longer optional—it is essential for deterring further aggression and countering any involvement from Israel’s allies.

The successful breach by Iranian drones underscores the exhaustion and structural limitations of Israel’s interception systems—designed primarily for short-term engagements against non-state actors, not sustained assaults from a state adversary with advanced capabilities.

Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai

4h

Israeli ministers, Knesset members, and media figures are now pleading—some outright crying—for increased U.S. intervention, revealing a familiar pattern: initiating a war without a viable endgame. This desperation underscores a chronic Israeli modus operandi—launch boldly, escalate quickly, and then scramble for American support when the cost spirals beyond control. Once again, Israel finds itself unable to finish what it started, paralysed by the absence of a strategic vision beyond the first strike.

Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai

3h

Breaking news: Yemen announced it will target all US navy or bases in case Washington joins the war on Iran.

Now, for a more technical account:

Patarames @Pataramesh

People want Iran - Israel insights.

Let me give them some:

➡️ In the first week of OTP-III Iran's primary goal was to degrade Israel's air and missile defenses.

- By forcing ripple launches against single high-speed 🇮🇷 missiles

( I observed up to 14 against a single missile)

- by hitting high-end sensor elements like the X-band AN/TPY-2 radars

➡️ Which in turn disables 🇮🇱 capability to identify and discriminate between real targets and decoys, but most importantly; avoid wasting interceptors on empty spent 1st stage boosters which come behind them.

If Iran manages to deplete 🇮🇱's interceptor inventory, it will not only cause a 2-digit billion $$$ financial loss.

➡️ An Israel which can't defend against ballistic-missiles can't continue a war for long and will have a very bad negotiation position at a future table

Once Israel's missile defenses are exhausted, Iran can start to use more accurate missiles with lower terminal speed.

➡️ Current missile have to be very fast ones to lure interceptors launches. This [very high speed] reduces accuracy.

➡️ Hence airbases the basis for 🇮🇱 airpower will be targeted.

Commenter Amand R sent me a substack article that attempts to present some very basic considerations to show the high probability that the coming US war on Iran will be futile. The author focuses on the simple lack of sufficient resources for a succesful land invasion of Iran. In fact, of course, the Anglo-Zionist military understands that and, instead, is pinning its hopes on the fantasy of bringing about regime collapse via air power. You can read the article here:

An important geography lesson concerning a war with Iran

The article also contains some very interesting graphics that readers may find informative. For example:

Repeat: The Iranians are saving their best missiles for the US:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

  U.S. Air Force Air deployment at Prince Sultan Air Base (Mizarvision imagery from June 19th | 16h21)

22 x KC-135 Stratotankers

53 x likely F-16

10 x C-130

& more under shelter + more have arrived in the past 24 hours.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

9h

This is in Saudi Arabia. We have watched Tel Aviv and other cities get bombarded by Iranian hypersonic missiles that blow through air defence. What on earth are the Americans thinking!?

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

 The Israel Broadcasting Authority, citing an Israeli source:

The outcome of the military operation against Iran depends on Trump's decision.

The war will continue for a long time if Trump does not enter and Iran responds with its entire military arsenal.

CNN, quoting several unnamed senior Israeli officials:

Trump's 2 week deadline is part of a deception act to keep Tehran guessing, while Trump has already decided to get the US involved.

Israeli military spokesman to Fox News:

Our goal is to ensure that Iran is in chaos.

12:56 PM · Jun 21, 2025

Trump and the Iran War: perhaps the most openly telegraphed event of all time

Finally, here’s an article that suggests that Trump engaged in similar deception ploys leading up to the assassination of Qassem Soleimani.

The reason Qassem Soleimani was in Baghdad shows how complex the Iran crisis is

The commander is said to have been in Iraq to discuss moves to ease tensions between Tehran and Saudi Arabia – something that will have been of interest to Washington

The notion that this has anything to do with nukes is nothing but gaslighting. I hope to get into that in a bit more depth later, but not too much later.