The Prigozhin Crash

My period of unusual business continues today, after a busy yesterday. Next week will be similar. That explains the late posts. Today I’ll try for an early start.

I’m fairly agnostic on the Prigozhin crash. Simplicius reminds us that Putin has, in the past stated that “betrayal” is, for him, the unforgivable sin. In the wake of the Prigozhin farce mutiny Putin stated to the Russian nation that those who betrayed the nation would pay the price. From that standpoint, staging that type of mutiny in time of war—with some pretty inflammatory rhetoric—was as clear an act of betrayal as you could ask for. As I noted yesterday in a comment, the fact that General Surovikin—who appears to have been in trouble over some aspect of the Prigozhin mutiny, although details are unclear—has been removed from his position in the last few days may be significant. Nevertheless, not all is clear.

The more we learn about the crash, the more indicators seem to point toward sabotage. Currently, it appears that the plane lost its tail section and most of its wings at the very beginning of its plunge. To me, a non-expert in such matters, that doesn’t seem consistent with either a maintenance failure or a SAM strike. With those observations in mind, Larry Johnson observes:

We know for certain that the plane did not explode in mid-air. Check out thess two videos.

In the twitter video taken by a lady who lives on a farm in Russia you can see a puff on the left and then the plane appears as it falls in a slight dead spin. That means it lost almost all aerodynamic lift capabilities. The Embraer 600 (pictured above) has its engines at attached neat the tail of the aircraft. As the plane falls it rotates slightly, which means that part of one wing was still attached. Yet, most of the wings are not visible. The vapor trail that follows the jet as it plummets to the ground is most likely fuel rather than smoke.

What caused the wings to separate?

Larry tends to discount what looks like possible shrapnel damage. Now here’s an interesting theory:

Tony

@Cyberspec1

One of the main versions of the fall of Prigozhin's plane at the moment is an explosive device planted in the landing gear compartment, media reports.

According to preliminary data, it was in the landing gear area that an explosion occurred in the sky - as a result, the wing was torn off, which hit the stabilizer, because of this, the business jet began to climb sharply, and then went into a tailspin. A falling plane without a wing was seen on the video of local residents.

According to media sources, this explains the fall of the tail of the aircraft a few kilometers from the fuselage There was also information about the first suspect. Allegedly, he is Prigozhin's personal pilot, a certain Artem Stepanov. At the moment he cannot be contacted, he is wanted.

Military Informant

4:55 AM · Aug 24, 2023

Explosives in the landing gear compartment would appear to explain the details of the crash as we currently know them.

Newsweek has some information about the pilot, Stepanov:

First Suspect in Prigozhin Jet Crash Case Emerges

Artem Stepanov, who was formerly hit by United States sanctions for his connection with Prigozhin, is being investigated for his alleged involvement in the plane crash, according to Telegram news channels Sirena and SHOT, the Baza channel, which is linked to Russia's security services, and the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, which has close ties to Russian security forces.

…

Baza reported that investigators believe Stepanov could have access to Prigozhin's private jet on the eve of its departure from Moscow. The channel cited Stepanov's brother as saying that has been on vacation in Kamchatka, a peninsula in Russia's far east, for the last week, but said "he has already been contacted by those to whom he is needed."

VChK-OGPU similarly reported that investigators believe Stepanov had access to the plane prior to its departure, and that he left for Kamchatka before the crash. Sirena reported that Prigozhin's "personal pilot" is being investigated for his involvement in the crash.

That appears to be where matters stand right now. I can also see that a decision could have been made to remove Prigozhin after the uproar over his mutiny died down. An independent power base at the command of a flamboyant and probably corrupt oligarch would always be a danger to the state. Putin is known to be cracking down on other oligarchs during the war.