The Big Buzz for the past several days has been the NYTimes account of major leaks of US/NATO documents. Larry Johnson—in his second article on the topic—again argues strongly that the documents are authentic and not some sort of Russian disinformation. This is the overwhelming consensus and one that I share, although most commentators have acknowledged some attempts at manipulating the documents. Here’s Johnson’s overview:
"There are even suggestions that the US is trying to sponsor a Color Coup or Revolution in Israel."
I can understand people thinking that, but I doubt it's true. The protests in Israel are real, and they would be quite serious even without whatever outside support we may have provided. Honestly, I think the good old CIA never really overthrew that many governments, but that wasn't from lack of trying. Mostly when people accuse America or its spooks of overthrowing a government they're confusing correlation with cause. The Israeli Left is pretty much like the Left any place else and operates on the principle "By any means necessary". Netanyahu's judicial reforms strike at the power of a Left faction that, because of demographics and a lower birth rate, probably can't win a legitimate election for very much longer. They feel cornered and desperate. If Washington could remove Netanyahu, I'm sure it would. I doubt it can, though he may by blunders remove himself.
It seems to me that the info in these leaks should have the party currently in charge in the House of Representatives up in arms and screaming bloody murder. Perhaps they could get off their asses and start impeachment of Zhou, as Mark has labeled him, based on this info.
If #1 false info, won't modify opposite parties positions because they each know the info is fake: only for domestic use (squirrel distraction). In this case the Ukraine war drags on, negotiation channels stay closed. If #2 true info, then you have to consider who exposed the info (who benefits). Zhou regime (white house) is unlikely to be the source, as it results in all partners ceasing to share viable intelligence info - isolation is the result. In adversarial negotiations, a party that knows their opponents positions (and opponents don't know adversaries know) would not give up that info if they felt they could use it to identify their opponents' "accepts" positions. If the adversaries have absolute control (they will win no matter what) and/or feel their opponents are not dealing in good faith, then release of such info signals positional failure/no leverage. That is a 'decide sooner than later' tactic. Who benefits? Four suggestions: A) the US military (hopeless, damaging to other priorities); B) the Russians (get this over with with less loss of life); C) the Ukrainians-that-aren't-beholden (elements of AFU that understand (B)); and D), the wounded EU-states (primarily Germany). I vote for A-thru-D
“The further message [to the U.S. Senate] is, Look, we gave you the information you needed to deal with the Zhou regime and you failed to act. We now reveal the depths of the quagmire and the possibility of further pushback.”
Assuming the leaked documents are genuine, and assuming the Senate “gets” the message and heeds the warning, what could we expect them to do? Are we looking at impeachment, or what? Additionally, considering the current makeup of the Senate, what kinds of things might we expect them to do, if anything?
Regarding the US basically relying on Ukraine information and propaganda... where is the American press in Ukraine. Who can forget the two intrepid CNN reporters cowering under their hotel room desk as the US and Allies set Baghdad afire from the air? Or the famed CNN mobile... the reporter who made it famous later died, can not recall his name. He was pretty likeable actually. LOL maybe he worked for Fox?
Droves of embedded journalists, photo journalists, reporters etc all 'bravely" rode with the troops into the " war zone".
I find the lack of embedded or at least in country MSM reporters quite interesting. Much can be speculated by their absence.
Sundance at CTH has a different view on who did the leaking and why. Based on who the leak was made to (the NYT's), it is for domestic political purposes - to stir up another Russia mis/dis/mal-information narrative. The reason being, per Sundance: "18 hours before the leak/story construct. Two Russian gremlins, perhaps state sponsored, or perhaps just state aligned, tricked former French President Francios Hollande into admitting the U.S. government and western alliance were behind all of the events in Ukraine after 2014, with the expressed intention to construct a proxy war against Russia using Ukraine." And Sundance then asks how much reporting have you seen by the MSM on the Hollande admission? Zilch. Mission accomplished.
Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
·
Apr 9
The De-Gaullisation of Macron.
- “[We shouldn't] believe we are just America’s followers”
- "Is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worse thing would be to take our cue from the U.S. agenda [on this topic]"
https://politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview/
"There are even suggestions that the US is trying to sponsor a Color Coup or Revolution in Israel."
I can understand people thinking that, but I doubt it's true. The protests in Israel are real, and they would be quite serious even without whatever outside support we may have provided. Honestly, I think the good old CIA never really overthrew that many governments, but that wasn't from lack of trying. Mostly when people accuse America or its spooks of overthrowing a government they're confusing correlation with cause. The Israeli Left is pretty much like the Left any place else and operates on the principle "By any means necessary". Netanyahu's judicial reforms strike at the power of a Left faction that, because of demographics and a lower birth rate, probably can't win a legitimate election for very much longer. They feel cornered and desperate. If Washington could remove Netanyahu, I'm sure it would. I doubt it can, though he may by blunders remove himself.
Part of the larger operation to take Zhou out. Intelligence sector IMO. Aligned to NYT too.
How about the fallout from Macron’s journey to cuddle Xi? Read it was a waxing. And with Von what’s her name too along as an uninvited freeloader.
3 day shortage of resources causing massive shutdowns at L.A. and Long Beach ports.
Meanwhile new term of the week is “trans age”. We are so broken.
It seems to me that the info in these leaks should have the party currently in charge in the House of Representatives up in arms and screaming bloody murder. Perhaps they could get off their asses and start impeachment of Zhou, as Mark has labeled him, based on this info.
Looks like the evil that has been propagated by the owners of USA is coming back to burn them. Damn, its long overdue.
Could the documents have been hacked by entity outside vs leaked from inside?
Cases in play - 1) false info and 2) true info
If #1 false info, won't modify opposite parties positions because they each know the info is fake: only for domestic use (squirrel distraction). In this case the Ukraine war drags on, negotiation channels stay closed. If #2 true info, then you have to consider who exposed the info (who benefits). Zhou regime (white house) is unlikely to be the source, as it results in all partners ceasing to share viable intelligence info - isolation is the result. In adversarial negotiations, a party that knows their opponents positions (and opponents don't know adversaries know) would not give up that info if they felt they could use it to identify their opponents' "accepts" positions. If the adversaries have absolute control (they will win no matter what) and/or feel their opponents are not dealing in good faith, then release of such info signals positional failure/no leverage. That is a 'decide sooner than later' tactic. Who benefits? Four suggestions: A) the US military (hopeless, damaging to other priorities); B) the Russians (get this over with with less loss of life); C) the Ukrainians-that-aren't-beholden (elements of AFU that understand (B)); and D), the wounded EU-states (primarily Germany). I vote for A-thru-D
Thanks for this great synthesis, Mark. "Normal?" Perhaps this is the new "normal" ...
“The further message [to the U.S. Senate] is, Look, we gave you the information you needed to deal with the Zhou regime and you failed to act. We now reveal the depths of the quagmire and the possibility of further pushback.”
Assuming the leaked documents are genuine, and assuming the Senate “gets” the message and heeds the warning, what could we expect them to do? Are we looking at impeachment, or what? Additionally, considering the current makeup of the Senate, what kinds of things might we expect them to do, if anything?
Regarding the US basically relying on Ukraine information and propaganda... where is the American press in Ukraine. Who can forget the two intrepid CNN reporters cowering under their hotel room desk as the US and Allies set Baghdad afire from the air? Or the famed CNN mobile... the reporter who made it famous later died, can not recall his name. He was pretty likeable actually. LOL maybe he worked for Fox?
Droves of embedded journalists, photo journalists, reporters etc all 'bravely" rode with the troops into the " war zone".
I find the lack of embedded or at least in country MSM reporters quite interesting. Much can be speculated by their absence.
Sundance at CTH has a different view on who did the leaking and why. Based on who the leak was made to (the NYT's), it is for domestic political purposes - to stir up another Russia mis/dis/mal-information narrative. The reason being, per Sundance: "18 hours before the leak/story construct. Two Russian gremlins, perhaps state sponsored, or perhaps just state aligned, tricked former French President Francios Hollande into admitting the U.S. government and western alliance were behind all of the events in Ukraine after 2014, with the expressed intention to construct a proxy war against Russia using Ukraine." And Sundance then asks how much reporting have you seen by the MSM on the Hollande admission? Zilch. Mission accomplished.
Here's the link for the whole story for those interested in this view: https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/04/08/about-that-new-york-times-story-concerning-the-online-leak-of-u-s-military-and-geopolitical-intentions/#more-245306