I spent most of today doing yardwork and reading a number of long articles. In a broad sense much of the material I’ve been reading follows on from the post yesterday that dealt with the programmatic article in The Economist—a virulently Neocon and anti-Russian outlet. I say the article is “programmatic” because it appears to reflect the thinking of the most war mongering American Neocon views—those usually associated with Victoria Nuland and the Kagan family. The article frankly acknowledges that the American war on Russia is, so far, a failure. However, it then
No, I don't see any concessions to Poland. And the Polish experience of Ukrainian "refugees" has cured them of any illusions about reoccupying Western Ukraine.
Thank you for this essential roundup. The only thing I would modify is we are at the edge of the abyss, thank you Congress, and Powell’s thinking is that it is essential to preserve some semblance of fiscal integrity, come what may. Outright deflation is a very strong possibility, as the markets adjust to no more free money. With all these homegrown problems, Ukraine, where's that?
First there was the “counteroffensive”, loudly haled as the Ukies’ great push to the Sea of Asov, retaking Crimea; then mum’s the word: what counteroffensive? Then it was a slow-going, grinding affair (per Zel); then a “stalemate” a/k/a “frozen conflict,” like a bitter-tasting smoothie of what Mercouris calls a “strategic defeat” for Ukraine. Now, out of the vast cornucopia of Neocon euphemisms comes “the long war.” These people are short on reality, long on hubris. Very dangerous.
And as expressed the Economist, the precription for a “long war” goes like this (excerpt from Zerhedge, link below):
“…iif American military assistance starts to wane (following a Trump victory, for example), then Europe must be ready “to step up further”:
“Europe will eventually need to carry more of the burden. That means beefing up its defence industry and reforming the EU’s decision-making so it can handle more members”.
No mention of the Deux ex machina here, Putin. He's just sitting and waiting. He, Lavrov and Medvedev are probably sitting in a smoky room, playing poker to kill time as the whole West falls to pieces.
The first part of this article is more complicated than a Russian novel. I’m left with no idea of who’s doing what to whom or if there are any good guys. Or if I should even care. But thanks for writing as it’s great reading about stuff that no one else writes about.
Poland is having an election in October, and Ukraine is unpopular among voters.
So lots of posturing by the ruling party, which is more nationalist and is anti German and Russian.
The Armenia / Azerbaijan is more confusing. It seems the Armenian President hung to dry the Armenian enclave, to meet EU entry requirements. He is very Wef and there was a color revolution. The loss of the enclave has caused riots / protests against him. He is trying to move away from Russia, and into EU sphere of influence.
Luongo is hinting at a major financial crisis to hit Europe in October.
Powell had 3 options on interest rates - my take:
1. Hike, but supposedly inflation is under control.
2. Keep same to see what happens
3. Lower - but unemployment is supposedly low right now.
“Supposedly” refers to official statistics / numbers.
The crisis is definitely coming. A bit of local colour. Here in Switzerland, things look as good as ever. However, our main trading partner is Germany. And Germany is definitely heading for the toilet, economically. Fun times ahead over here, but hey, at least the EU is looking after our interests in the Caucuses.
Same here in France, where the recent walloping of the Namibian rugby team 92-0 by the French was deemed a “victory!” Good luck when they face the All-Blacks! Moving on, we had the ulcerating spectacle of King Charles and (King) Macron, Camilla and Brigitte, wining and dining in the very Hall of Mirrors where the Treaty of Versailles was signed 104 yrs ago, and where the French people, worn down by high taxes (today), famine and the cost of bread (also today, and no end in sight) and a corrupt, totally disconnected, deaf dumb and blind government, assembled in a mob 230 years ago…and the two raise their glasses to history!!!
The Swiss can be very smug concerning our French neighbours. However, France looks in a really bad way. I often listen to France Info and it's a bit like a parallel universe. Maybe it's exaggerated too. Whenever I pop across the border, it looks as lovely and peaceful as ever in Franche Comté at least. As for the Versailles bash, the greatest and hopefully fatal weakness of the elites is their complete blindness to reality. A la lanterne with these canailles!
That would probably be why he linked to DDB and Lacy Hunt, who argue (DDB does) that Powell learned his lesson from the Covid trillions and won't go down that path again. Powell did tell Congress that he didn't feel obliged to monetize their debt and appears to be holding to that--for now! All a very big deal.
My understanding of Tom Luongo is that higher interest rates in the us are a huge time bomb for Europe, the Europeans have managed to delay so far. And he thinks that could explode in October in Europe. It was mentioned in his last podcast.
Oil Energy costs relatively speaking are not that high due to inflation. Now what is happening due to green mandates on electrical energy costs, at least in California, are terrifying.
It's election year in 2024. Many commentators are saying that Powell will lower rates at some point to help Biden. Will be interesting to see if that happens.
Certainly not for that reason. Luongo's argument, before the event, is that Powell is keeping his powder dry to maintain higher rates for longer. And longer means 2024.
You're very welcome. I'll have to check that our re the Germans. That would seem very big--like, they like the Poles are deciding to follow their interests rather than Neocons dictates. We shall see.
I'm assuming RF will steamroll UA, physically at least out to the Dnieper, and will essentially "own" 404.
How and, more importantly, why would RF concede any control to BlackRock, Monsanto, et.al.?
Perhaps the Poles play nice and Putin offers up Galicia...with strings attached: No NATO. Let the Banderistas be someone else's headache.
No, I don't see any concessions to Poland. And the Polish experience of Ukrainian "refugees" has cured them of any illusions about reoccupying Western Ukraine.
So, the question is this...who wants to "own" Galicia? Certainly not RF.
Mark, who do you think will prevail in the west of UA?
Or, will it become a sort of DMZ?
Thank you for this essential roundup. The only thing I would modify is we are at the edge of the abyss, thank you Congress, and Powell’s thinking is that it is essential to preserve some semblance of fiscal integrity, come what may. Outright deflation is a very strong possibility, as the markets adjust to no more free money. With all these homegrown problems, Ukraine, where's that?
First there was the “counteroffensive”, loudly haled as the Ukies’ great push to the Sea of Asov, retaking Crimea; then mum’s the word: what counteroffensive? Then it was a slow-going, grinding affair (per Zel); then a “stalemate” a/k/a “frozen conflict,” like a bitter-tasting smoothie of what Mercouris calls a “strategic defeat” for Ukraine. Now, out of the vast cornucopia of Neocon euphemisms comes “the long war.” These people are short on reality, long on hubris. Very dangerous.
And as expressed the Economist, the precription for a “long war” goes like this (excerpt from Zerhedge, link below):
“…iif American military assistance starts to wane (following a Trump victory, for example), then Europe must be ready “to step up further”:
“Europe will eventually need to carry more of the burden. That means beefing up its defence industry and reforming the EU’s decision-making so it can handle more members”.
…and send EU boys over there to fight?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/seymour-hersh-mainstreams-ukraine-narrative-shift
No mention of the Deux ex machina here, Putin. He's just sitting and waiting. He, Lavrov and Medvedev are probably sitting in a smoky room, playing poker to kill time as the whole West falls to pieces.
What’s that old saying about not getting in your enemies way when they are destroying themselves?
Toss 'em a shovel when they're in a hole. Except we're all down there, too.
The first part of this article is more complicated than a Russian novel. I’m left with no idea of who’s doing what to whom or if there are any good guys. Or if I should even care. But thanks for writing as it’s great reading about stuff that no one else writes about.
Poland is having an election in October, and Ukraine is unpopular among voters.
So lots of posturing by the ruling party, which is more nationalist and is anti German and Russian.
The Armenia / Azerbaijan is more confusing. It seems the Armenian President hung to dry the Armenian enclave, to meet EU entry requirements. He is very Wef and there was a color revolution. The loss of the enclave has caused riots / protests against him. He is trying to move away from Russia, and into EU sphere of influence.
Luongo is hinting at a major financial crisis to hit Europe in October.
Powell had 3 options on interest rates - my take:
1. Hike, but supposedly inflation is under control.
2. Keep same to see what happens
3. Lower - but unemployment is supposedly low right now.
“Supposedly” refers to official statistics / numbers.
The crisis is definitely coming. A bit of local colour. Here in Switzerland, things look as good as ever. However, our main trading partner is Germany. And Germany is definitely heading for the toilet, economically. Fun times ahead over here, but hey, at least the EU is looking after our interests in the Caucuses.
Very noble of the EU.
Same here in France, where the recent walloping of the Namibian rugby team 92-0 by the French was deemed a “victory!” Good luck when they face the All-Blacks! Moving on, we had the ulcerating spectacle of King Charles and (King) Macron, Camilla and Brigitte, wining and dining in the very Hall of Mirrors where the Treaty of Versailles was signed 104 yrs ago, and where the French people, worn down by high taxes (today), famine and the cost of bread (also today, and no end in sight) and a corrupt, totally disconnected, deaf dumb and blind government, assembled in a mob 230 years ago…and the two raise their glasses to history!!!
Ça promet as they say…
What can't go on, won't go on. Could get very ugly. More so than ... That's why Smith included that excerpt re Yeltsin's Russia at the end.
Yes assuredly.
The Swiss can be very smug concerning our French neighbours. However, France looks in a really bad way. I often listen to France Info and it's a bit like a parallel universe. Maybe it's exaggerated too. Whenever I pop across the border, it looks as lovely and peaceful as ever in Franche Comté at least. As for the Versailles bash, the greatest and hopefully fatal weakness of the elites is their complete blindness to reality. A la lanterne with these canailles!
Probably seemed that way back in 1789. Après nous, le déluge seems to be the idea that Luongo attributes to these "vandals" as he calls them.
“La Lanterne” happens to be the name of the president’s official residence on the Château grounds!
That would probably be why he linked to DDB and Lacy Hunt, who argue (DDB does) that Powell learned his lesson from the Covid trillions and won't go down that path again. Powell did tell Congress that he didn't feel obliged to monetize their debt and appears to be holding to that--for now! All a very big deal.
I don’t see QE happening.
Lots of chickens coming home to roost.
My understanding of Tom Luongo is that higher interest rates in the us are a huge time bomb for Europe, the Europeans have managed to delay so far. And he thinks that could explode in October in Europe. It was mentioned in his last podcast.
Oil Energy costs relatively speaking are not that high due to inflation. Now what is happening due to green mandates on electrical energy costs, at least in California, are terrifying.
It's election year in 2024. Many commentators are saying that Powell will lower rates at some point to help Biden. Will be interesting to see if that happens.
I honestly don't see Powell trying to 'help' Biden.
Not very likely, but then again, it depends on how much he and his backers hate Trump and who will best serve their interests.
Certainly not for that reason. Luongo's argument, before the event, is that Powell is keeping his powder dry to maintain higher rates for longer. And longer means 2024.
I don't see Powell doing that either, but as for his deeper reasoning, I have no clue. I still feel Tom is over-complicating things.
You're very welcome. I'll have to check that our re the Germans. That would seem very big--like, they like the Poles are deciding to follow their interests rather than Neocons dictates. We shall see.