It’s been a slow news day. There is big news—inflation appears to be accelerating—but I have nothing to add to the obvious negatives. Moreover, this “news” was expected. So I’ve decided to turn to a story that’s been percolating for quite a while: The dire recruiting shortfalls for our armed forces.
I recently got blocked from an invite only professional forum on Facebook established by one of my old mentors in the Army.
Forum was putatively to discuss Mission Command--the art of decentralized command, or as von Moltke put it, "give the subordinate no more orders than are absolutely necessary for him to execute the intent and rely on him to do the rest."
But in the last 6 months it's degenerated into a debating society on the Russo-Ukrainian war where plenty of current and former commissioned officers in the US Army (and allied armies) have felt comfortable calling fellow current and former officers Russian trolls for pointing out obvious Ukrainian failures and propaganda--all of this in violation of the 2 main rules "no politics," and "no personal attacks."
So I got into it with some a-hole on this very topic of declining enlistment after I posted something to the effect of no one wants to join an organization run by a bunch of losers. Red America might have been willing to send their sons to fight in an organization hostile to their social views and politics if it was winning, but after 20 years of Afghanistan and Iraq, they're done. So some guy who is a current contractor, probably retired a field grade, responds, "what's the solution?" I said, fire every flag officer in the chain of command for that ridiculous Kabul debacle, starting with All American 6, who disgraced every officer and paratrooper like myself who ever served in the 82nd Airborne with his shenanigans" and I listed some. Guy responds with, "sounds like Russian disinformation," and I replied with something like "epic troll, lol." But the guy was 100% serious. We got into it and he calls me a spreader of Russian narratives, I call him a cuck or a simp for failed generals and immediately get a 30 day suspension.
Once it's lifted I see that they're calling COL MacGregor a Russian troll for his analysis of the Ukrainian campaign that has been highlighted on this page and elsewhere. And I tag in the moderators and say something to the effect of, "so calling someone a mean name after provocation is bad, but calling a decorated officer a Russian mouthpiece on this platform is perfectly ok?!" Things escalated from there.
Long story short, I am recounting--probably too verbosely--an exchange that is representative of the majority opinion of the still serving US Army officer corps, that shows it is broken. Completely captured by groupthink and careerism. Simply no way the system will fix itself from the inside--they actually think the problem in Afghanistan was Biden wasn't willing to let the 82nd keep a BCT+ in Kabul indefinitely, not that the Afghan State and Army we built over 20 years collapsed without us in less than 6 months. More importantly, they honestly believe that any criticism of the organization must be driven by foreign propaganda campaigns.
You could see that all through the Russia Hoax--it's the default foreign policy and defense establishment position. Shout down all argument by invoking "Russia, Russia, Russia". You can't go wrong because you can't be challenged. There can be no counter argument--heads we win, tails you lose.
Bingo. I said in early 2017 that Trump will be gone in 4-8 years, but this habit of normalizing the claim that anyone who disagrees with DC consensus foreign policy is a Russian influencer/spy will be with us forever. I’m sure you’ll remember it was Joseph McCarthy’s claim that President Eisenhower was a Russian agent that finally got him censured and effectively ended his political career. In 21st century America such absurd claims will get you hundred million dollar book deals. It’s just so bizarre to get this nihilistic cartoon view of Russia from army officers who served in Afghanistan. Hello, if Putin’s only goal is to screw with America, why didn’t he ever shut down Manas?
I served in the Army from immediately after the end of the draft in 1973 until 1999. During the Carter days of slashed budgets and the All Volunteer Army, things were tough, recruitment was tough. The lies from above were that the new force volunteers were the best in history; I was assigned to a training command, and figured out how to get computer printouts of pre- and post-entry test results that showed what we got in combat arms (armor) were clearly substandard. Once my brigade commander, a bureaucrat from the Pentagon personnel mob who parroted the party line, found out what I was doing he ordered my source to deliver those printouts to him only, and told me to keep my mouth shut about it.
Point is that if the Army says it's only making 40% of its goals, the issue is pretty damn dire. Combat arms (armor infantry artillery) is heavily middle class whites and Latinos; white boys tend to join to prove themselves against hard standards, Latinos learn of a career with an early retirement at 20 years and a way out of bad circumstances. Blacks and other minorities tend to go for technical and practical skill training (maintenance, IT, logistics management, etc).
If this sounds odd, look at casualty figures from the last decades of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are heavily white and Latino, as you'd expect, as they were highly overrepresented vis-a-vis national cohorts in combat arms.
I would bet that the shortages tend to be in combat arms ,the raison d'etre of the Army.
Why? The people that seek such hard assignments want to show their patriotism, their manliness, their prowess in the world. But cutting standards like dropping high school diplomas requirement, waivers for drug use and convictions, etc leads to a cascade of problems later in training, service and retention. Overall it's much more expensive, too.
In my experience everyone loathed the Equal Opportunity training, everyone from any background. They just wanted to do their job and be free to associate with their friends of their choice when off duty. None would welcome the gender bs and CRT, which are much more obnoxious than the EEO crap.
Why would a normal young man join if he knew that was awaiting him?
Mark, your post is so timely insofar as my household is concerned. My son is about to head off to college. He avoided applying to schools that required covid vaccination. His plan, since the age of 12, has been to participate in AFROTC in college and to serve in the Air Force thereafter. He has participated in Civil Air Patrol for 7 years and AFJROTC during high school. With AFROTC in college, a student can participate for the first two years of college without a military commitment beyond college. If my understanding is correct, once a student is a college junior, the commitment to serve beyond college is solidified. We (my husband, son and I) erroneously believed that the COVID vaccine would not be required until junior year and we thought by that time perhaps the powers that be would come to their senses and drop the ridiculous, harmful mandate (I know, I know . . . we are delusional but hope springs eternal). Well, yesterday, my son received notification that he MUST HAVE A COVID VACCINE to participate in AFROTC. He’s quite devastated but he will not subject himself to the vaccine. He is an extremely fit, healthy teenage boy who is going to school to become a pilot. The military just lost a great future asset. I wonder how many times this scenario has been repeated across the country.
We have a similar situation with our daughter, whom has planned since 8th grade her path to the Naval Academy. She is a junior in HS and is slowly coming the realization that she might not be able to go. At this point I’m not sure they want her.
I've commented numerous times on this blog that the volunteer military is approaching insolvency. Those of us who have given the best years of our lives to what was once an institution we believed in has forsaken our trust. Today, you would be hard pressed to find a military retiree who would recommend today's military to any youngster. In fact, we would recommend against such a career path. Until the politics is removed from the military, it is a fool's errand to believe it will change any time soon. There is one political party responsible for this reprehensible denudement of the U.S. military and we know which one it is. A reckoning is fast approaching.
Even worse, and not mentioned, civilian support for any conflict that might arise practically doesn't exist. I have read of a critical shortage of war materials. The country mobilized in World War 2 and did the impossible. . Now the country is divided into the helpless, who are helpless, and the capable who by and large do not support or trust the regime. We are not capable of fighting even a limited war, and our proxies don't seem to be doing very well.
Thie above is true, but I'll add that even if Woke were consigned to the fires of hell today, we would still have a serious recruiting problem because of the collapse of physical fitness among young people. Obesity and diabetes have become epidemics. The COVID lockdowns contributed to this, and the education deficit caused by closing schools for COVID also has shrunk the manpower pool. Troops expected to operate and maintain modern weapons have to be smart.
Oof, wow - what a great post. Top to bottom -- but especially the bottom. I think no price can be put on astute and concise chronicles of these "interesting times" we live in. Glad and grateful to have easy access to such a gem of such a chronicle, i.e., the meaning in history substack.
“Character, principle and determination”, just exactly what the left despises with a vengeance! If anything more clearly defines the differences between the left and the conservative right, I don’t know what it is.
This is what will ultimately bring us to the “Rubicon” moment along with the “social upheaval” that you refer to Mark. I’m not certain how it will all play out, but it will definitely be a historically defining moment
for the country as consequential as the Civil War.
Every day and every new outrage brings us closer and closer to critical mass and when the POTUS steps off of a plane in Israel and asks his minders “Now what am I doing here?”, seems to me that there can’t be much time left on the clock.
I think it’s time we make sure our tray tables are in the upright and locked position and check to make sure that our seatbelts are firmly fastened because we are definitely going to experience some turbulence.
Time to lawyer up. Irreconcilable differences aren't fixable by the time the relationship degrades to where at least one partner has contempt for the other. In this case it is mutual.
I recently got blocked from an invite only professional forum on Facebook established by one of my old mentors in the Army.
Forum was putatively to discuss Mission Command--the art of decentralized command, or as von Moltke put it, "give the subordinate no more orders than are absolutely necessary for him to execute the intent and rely on him to do the rest."
But in the last 6 months it's degenerated into a debating society on the Russo-Ukrainian war where plenty of current and former commissioned officers in the US Army (and allied armies) have felt comfortable calling fellow current and former officers Russian trolls for pointing out obvious Ukrainian failures and propaganda--all of this in violation of the 2 main rules "no politics," and "no personal attacks."
So I got into it with some a-hole on this very topic of declining enlistment after I posted something to the effect of no one wants to join an organization run by a bunch of losers. Red America might have been willing to send their sons to fight in an organization hostile to their social views and politics if it was winning, but after 20 years of Afghanistan and Iraq, they're done. So some guy who is a current contractor, probably retired a field grade, responds, "what's the solution?" I said, fire every flag officer in the chain of command for that ridiculous Kabul debacle, starting with All American 6, who disgraced every officer and paratrooper like myself who ever served in the 82nd Airborne with his shenanigans" and I listed some. Guy responds with, "sounds like Russian disinformation," and I replied with something like "epic troll, lol." But the guy was 100% serious. We got into it and he calls me a spreader of Russian narratives, I call him a cuck or a simp for failed generals and immediately get a 30 day suspension.
Once it's lifted I see that they're calling COL MacGregor a Russian troll for his analysis of the Ukrainian campaign that has been highlighted on this page and elsewhere. And I tag in the moderators and say something to the effect of, "so calling someone a mean name after provocation is bad, but calling a decorated officer a Russian mouthpiece on this platform is perfectly ok?!" Things escalated from there.
Long story short, I am recounting--probably too verbosely--an exchange that is representative of the majority opinion of the still serving US Army officer corps, that shows it is broken. Completely captured by groupthink and careerism. Simply no way the system will fix itself from the inside--they actually think the problem in Afghanistan was Biden wasn't willing to let the 82nd keep a BCT+ in Kabul indefinitely, not that the Afghan State and Army we built over 20 years collapsed without us in less than 6 months. More importantly, they honestly believe that any criticism of the organization must be driven by foreign propaganda campaigns.
You could see that all through the Russia Hoax--it's the default foreign policy and defense establishment position. Shout down all argument by invoking "Russia, Russia, Russia". You can't go wrong because you can't be challenged. There can be no counter argument--heads we win, tails you lose.
Bingo. I said in early 2017 that Trump will be gone in 4-8 years, but this habit of normalizing the claim that anyone who disagrees with DC consensus foreign policy is a Russian influencer/spy will be with us forever. I’m sure you’ll remember it was Joseph McCarthy’s claim that President Eisenhower was a Russian agent that finally got him censured and effectively ended his political career. In 21st century America such absurd claims will get you hundred million dollar book deals. It’s just so bizarre to get this nihilistic cartoon view of Russia from army officers who served in Afghanistan. Hello, if Putin’s only goal is to screw with America, why didn’t he ever shut down Manas?
I served in the Army from immediately after the end of the draft in 1973 until 1999. During the Carter days of slashed budgets and the All Volunteer Army, things were tough, recruitment was tough. The lies from above were that the new force volunteers were the best in history; I was assigned to a training command, and figured out how to get computer printouts of pre- and post-entry test results that showed what we got in combat arms (armor) were clearly substandard. Once my brigade commander, a bureaucrat from the Pentagon personnel mob who parroted the party line, found out what I was doing he ordered my source to deliver those printouts to him only, and told me to keep my mouth shut about it.
Point is that if the Army says it's only making 40% of its goals, the issue is pretty damn dire. Combat arms (armor infantry artillery) is heavily middle class whites and Latinos; white boys tend to join to prove themselves against hard standards, Latinos learn of a career with an early retirement at 20 years and a way out of bad circumstances. Blacks and other minorities tend to go for technical and practical skill training (maintenance, IT, logistics management, etc).
If this sounds odd, look at casualty figures from the last decades of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are heavily white and Latino, as you'd expect, as they were highly overrepresented vis-a-vis national cohorts in combat arms.
I would bet that the shortages tend to be in combat arms ,the raison d'etre of the Army.
Why? The people that seek such hard assignments want to show their patriotism, their manliness, their prowess in the world. But cutting standards like dropping high school diplomas requirement, waivers for drug use and convictions, etc leads to a cascade of problems later in training, service and retention. Overall it's much more expensive, too.
In my experience everyone loathed the Equal Opportunity training, everyone from any background. They just wanted to do their job and be free to associate with their friends of their choice when off duty. None would welcome the gender bs and CRT, which are much more obnoxious than the EEO crap.
Why would a normal young man join if he knew that was awaiting him?
I would bet that the situation is similar in other fields too, like my old one.
Fed LEO? You betcha.
It's clear the Justice side is already far gone.
Mark, your post is so timely insofar as my household is concerned. My son is about to head off to college. He avoided applying to schools that required covid vaccination. His plan, since the age of 12, has been to participate in AFROTC in college and to serve in the Air Force thereafter. He has participated in Civil Air Patrol for 7 years and AFJROTC during high school. With AFROTC in college, a student can participate for the first two years of college without a military commitment beyond college. If my understanding is correct, once a student is a college junior, the commitment to serve beyond college is solidified. We (my husband, son and I) erroneously believed that the COVID vaccine would not be required until junior year and we thought by that time perhaps the powers that be would come to their senses and drop the ridiculous, harmful mandate (I know, I know . . . we are delusional but hope springs eternal). Well, yesterday, my son received notification that he MUST HAVE A COVID VACCINE to participate in AFROTC. He’s quite devastated but he will not subject himself to the vaccine. He is an extremely fit, healthy teenage boy who is going to school to become a pilot. The military just lost a great future asset. I wonder how many times this scenario has been repeated across the country.
We have a similar situation with our daughter, whom has planned since 8th grade her path to the Naval Academy. She is a junior in HS and is slowly coming the realization that she might not be able to go. At this point I’m not sure they want her.
I'm gonna guess quite a few times.
Another bit of excellence. I don't care for Empire but Sphere of Influence works, we conquer nobody but fund most......
I've commented numerous times on this blog that the volunteer military is approaching insolvency. Those of us who have given the best years of our lives to what was once an institution we believed in has forsaken our trust. Today, you would be hard pressed to find a military retiree who would recommend today's military to any youngster. In fact, we would recommend against such a career path. Until the politics is removed from the military, it is a fool's errand to believe it will change any time soon. There is one political party responsible for this reprehensible denudement of the U.S. military and we know which one it is. A reckoning is fast approaching.
Even worse, and not mentioned, civilian support for any conflict that might arise practically doesn't exist. I have read of a critical shortage of war materials. The country mobilized in World War 2 and did the impossible. . Now the country is divided into the helpless, who are helpless, and the capable who by and large do not support or trust the regime. We are not capable of fighting even a limited war, and our proxies don't seem to be doing very well.
What a lame excuse: Bad economies are a boost for recruitment.
That just underscores how dire the numbers are.
Thie above is true, but I'll add that even if Woke were consigned to the fires of hell today, we would still have a serious recruiting problem because of the collapse of physical fitness among young people. Obesity and diabetes have become epidemics. The COVID lockdowns contributed to this, and the education deficit caused by closing schools for COVID also has shrunk the manpower pool. Troops expected to operate and maintain modern weapons have to be smart.
And the epidemic use of Attention Deficit Drugs on little boys, just acting as boys, and not little girls.
They are no longer eligible for the military.
Oof, wow - what a great post. Top to bottom -- but especially the bottom. I think no price can be put on astute and concise chronicles of these "interesting times" we live in. Glad and grateful to have easy access to such a gem of such a chronicle, i.e., the meaning in history substack.
“Character, principle and determination”, just exactly what the left despises with a vengeance! If anything more clearly defines the differences between the left and the conservative right, I don’t know what it is.
This is what will ultimately bring us to the “Rubicon” moment along with the “social upheaval” that you refer to Mark. I’m not certain how it will all play out, but it will definitely be a historically defining moment
for the country as consequential as the Civil War.
Every day and every new outrage brings us closer and closer to critical mass and when the POTUS steps off of a plane in Israel and asks his minders “Now what am I doing here?”, seems to me that there can’t be much time left on the clock.
I think it’s time we make sure our tray tables are in the upright and locked position and check to make sure that our seatbelts are firmly fastened because we are definitely going to experience some turbulence.
Time to lawyer up. Irreconcilable differences aren't fixable by the time the relationship degrades to where at least one partner has contempt for the other. In this case it is mutual.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/resolution-not-conflict/201303/how-contempt-destroys-relationships