The Hunt For Red Florida, And More
Did Iran detect the USS Florida, a submarine loaded with Tomahawk cruise missiles, as it attempted to enter the Persian Gulf stealthily, forcing it to surface and leave Iranian waters? Iran says, Yes, the US says, No. We don’t know. Here’s a portion of a Tass article on the alleged incident, which tallies with other reporting:
Iranian navy claims it forced US submarine to surface
The USS Florida was attempting to sail undetected through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Tehran
The Iranian navy intercepted a US submarine in the Strait of Hormuz and forced it to surface and change its course, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani told reporters on Thursday. However, the US has denied the claim.
According to Irani, the nuclear-powered USS Florida was approaching the strait in complete silence when it was detected by an Iranian Fateh-class diesel-electric submarine. The Iranian vessel “forced this American submarine to come to the surface and cross the Strait of Hormuz on the surface of the water,” Irani said, according to Iran’s ISNA news agency.
…
The US denies that the encounter ever took place. “A US submarine has not transited the Strait of Hormuz today or recently," the commander of the US Fifth Fleet, Timothy Hawkins, told Reuters. “The claim represents more Iranian disinformation that does not contribute to regional maritime security and stability,” Hawkins added.
This follows on another alleged incident involving Iran and the US earlier in the month:
Iran warns off US spy plane – media
The electronic surveillance aircraft was turned back after it violated Iranian airspace, state media reported
…
A US EP-3E reconnaissance plane was identified by the Iranian navy over the Sea of Oman on Sunday afternoon, the state-owned news outlet reported. Following a warning from the navy, the plane returned to international airspace, the report continued.
Citing navy officials, Iran’s Tasnim news agency said that the plane did not actually enter Iranian airspace, and was turned around before it could do so. “Iranian naval forces gave the plane a warning and blocked its unauthorized entry into the Iranian airspace,” the agency’s version of events read.
At the time of writing, the US has not commented on the alleged incident.
The Lockheed EP-3E is an electronic signals reconnaissance variant of the P-3 Orion and is designed to patrol at low speed off enemy shores and intercept communications. In 2001, an EP-3E operated by the US navy collided with a Chinese J-8 interceptor jet over the South China Sea. After dismantling the EP-3E, China eventually returned the plane and its 24-man crew to the US, but only after billing Washington for shipping costs and the 11 days of food and lodging it provided the crew.
All of this also follows the downing of the US drone in the Black Sea, the Iranian (according to the US) missile strikes on US bases in Syria and the subsequent US standdown from retaliatory strikes, and the current events in Sudan.
Regarding the alleged incident involving the USS Florida, Andrei Martyanov provides a very full account: Mmmm, I Don't Know. His view is that a Fateh class sub would not be able to detect the USS Virginia, which is among the most silent subs currently operating. He also is unsure of why the US would attempt such a stunt—a stealth entry into the Persian Gulf—since the 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles aboard the Virgina can reach all Iranian targets from the Arabian Sea. OTOH, Iran does operate three Russian Kilo class subs which are designed for anti-submarine warfare and are capable—competently operated—of accomplishing that feat.
Could this have been a US test of Iran? But to what real end? We don’t know. While it probably isn’t possible for Russia and China to push the US out of the Middle East entirely, in the big scheme of things it certainly appears that the non-Western collective of nations—which now includes many of the most strategic countries in the Middle East—are intent, with Russian and Chinese support, on pushing US military operational capabilities to the periphery of the region.
Here’s a related item:
Flightradar: The U.S. has stopped strategic UAV flights over the Black Sea - RIA Novosti, 20.04.2023
Will Schryver
@imetatronink
According to RIA Novosti, the US ceased all RQ-4 Global Hawk flights over the Black Sea since the Russians brought down the MQ-9 Reaper drone in March.
This is a *very* interesting development.
Remember when Trump’s Neocon advisers wanted to launch WW3 after Iran downed a drone in the same region? Things have changed. The rippling blowback from the Zhou regime’s reckless war on Russia is having ever widening effects on the US position in the world, and the US ability to respond is being slowly squeezed. Russia and Iran are pushing back more directly and the US is having to adjust. That process is simply going to increase as the US dollar comes under increasing pressure, because wars cost money—real money, not funny money. The dollar isn’t going to go away, but the ability to finance US debt—already at levels that will be unsustainable if the dollars dominance wanes—is what is coming under increasing pressure. US debt is what supports the whole war on Russia.
On that note, here’s Douglas Macregor. The whole video is, as usual, worthwhile, but I’ve cued the last 8 minutes or so, when Macgregor starts talking about money. Macgregor’s not an economist, but I believe he’s correct to the extent that pressure on the dollar is going to affect our ability to wage war without sparking increasing unrest on the domestic front. Teaser quote:
"If the Biden Administration prints more money to support Ukraine at this stage, we're going to go to hyperinflation. We're going to look a lot like Weimar Germany, or worse."
Let’s finish with Big Serge, who today offered these observations about fighting at Kreminna, which is in the Kharkov direction, north of Bakhmut where most attention has been focused. It offers a bit of a bigger perspective from the usual day to day in Bakhmut that we’ve been getting. In addition, Big Serge’s observations fit in with what Macgregor says—the Ukrainian losses of their best trained personnel is irreplaceable and will seriously affect the possibility of any “offensive” in the next month or so. There are no links offered by Serge, but he’s been reliable in the past, so …
It’s really difficult to over-emphasize how badly the Ukrainians are getting chewed up on the Kreminna axis. Huge flows of footage and imagery of destroyed UA vehicles and positions, and reporting that they had to transfer reserves to this sector.
This is admittedly a subjective judgement, but if you’re someone who follows the flow of frontline imagery you know that this sector is particularly hot right now and there’s very active Russian artillery working constantly.
Kreminna was the place where Ukraine had the best chance at winning a real operational victory (though this was mostly foiled by the heroic Russian defense at Lyman). Now the UA must hold at Tors’ke to prevent the loss of the Siversk salient.
It [the earlier Ukrainian Kharkov region offensive] was a high intensity battle so there were casualties, but the defense was a tremendous success for Russia. It delayed the Ukrainian advance for days and prevented them from breaking through to Svatove. The capture of Svatove was the big threat and what Ukraine was hoping for.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, these folks are in a class all by themselves when it comes to stupidity and a complete inability to grasp the painfully obvious. US prestige is in the toilet and they don’t see it! Russia and its economy and ability to sustain the SMO is NOT in the toilet and they don’t see it! Threats seem particularly foolish when you can’t back them up in real time and they don’t see it! Russian’s threats are NOT foolish because they can back them up in real time and still these clowns don’t see it. The money tree is about to be struck a far reaching blow that will permanently curtail the neocons ability to engage in endless intimidating SMO’s-which in this instance means Stupid Military Operations, of which the current proxy war in Ukraine is a prime example, and they don’t see it!
This relentless march into folly, with apologies to Barbara Tuchman, cannot end well and the collective West will pay a horrible price and particularly the US, and they still won’t see it.
The Hunt for Red Florida! LOL. If you liked the movie Hunt For Red October, you weren't a submariner. When the CIA analyst detached from the helo into the sea alongside the USS Dallas in at least a sea state 5, he would have been hamburger from contacting the hull by the time he was pulled topside - of course if the Dallas CO even allowed anyone topside in those conditions. But movies form the fabric of what the uninformed believe is truth...