The House Votes For War On Iran

Did you know that that happened yesterday? I’ll bet most of the typically well informed readers here nevertheless didn’t know that. On the other hand, I’ll bet quite a number of people around the world were aware of your latest proposed war. Here it is:

Summary: H.Res.559 — 118th Congress (2023-2024)All Information (Except Text)

There is one summary for H.Res.559. Bill summaries are authored by CRS.

Shown Here:

Introduced in House (06/27/2023)

This resolution declares that it is the policy of the United States

(1) to use all means necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and

(2) to support the freedom of action of partners and allies to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

(2) means Israel. The actual text of the resolution states “including Israel” in the relevant portion (below). That’s a clue that the resolution was probably drafted by AIPAC.

You can read a bit more about the resolution here. Or here:

House Quietly Passed Resolution That Suggests Using Force Against Iran

where we learn about this technicality:

The resolution pointed to Iran’s uranium enrichment at 60% and its stockpiles of enriched uranium as evidence it could make a bomb. But in order to make a nuclear weapon, uranium needs to be enriched at 90%, and there’s no sign Tehran is considering taking that step.

The resolution passed 354-53. Three Republicans voted Nay: Thomas Massie (KY), Dan Bishop (NC), and Warren Davidson (OH).

Massie’s explanation for his vote is worth quoting in full:

Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie

Yesterday Congress passed a resolution (354 to 53) that claims Iran possesses all it needs for a nuclear weapon. The same resolution says the U.S. should “use all means necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” Seems like a call for war on Iran. I voted No.

12:32 PM · Nov 2, 2023

In possibly related news …

The other day the US attempted to send “a visible message of assurance to allies.” We did that by test launching a Minuteman III ICBM

The LGM-30 Minuteman is an American land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in service with the Air Force Global Strike Command. As of 2023, the LGM-30G Minuteman III version is the only land-based ICBM in service in the United States and represents the land leg of the U.S. nuclear triad, along with the Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and nuclear weapons carried by long-range strategic bombers.

One wonders how much assurance was derived from the test by allies, given that the test was aborted after liftoff due to an “anomaly”. In fairness, Andrei Martyanov points out:

Everyone gets things malfunctioning once in a while, this in and of itself is nothing special, …

However, this failure followed two delayed test launches. Those delays were supposedly to avoid escalating tensions with Russia and China, but one wonders. Anyway Martyanov goes on to note—in addition to disturbing personnel problems in our missile launch corps—that They Are Just Old:

Minuteman III has been around since 1970s with upgrades in 2010s, which included the replacement of the solid propellant, which do have the tendency to go bad over time. But, in the end, it is still an old missile.

Compare this now to Russia's constant upgrade of her deterrent which includes such ICBMS as Topol-M (introduced in 1997), RS 24 Yars (introduced in 2010) and now RS-28 Sarmat which entered first line service this year. The difference cannot be starker. This is not to mention still serving RS-36M2 Voevoda (aka Satan II) introduced in 1988. I could continue the list, including 1975 introduced UR-100N Stiletto ICBM, which was now upgraded to carry Avangard hyper-sonic strategic vehicles and is in the first-line service now. So, it is not enough to just maintain but to constantly develop such a complex technology and at this stage it is clear that technology-wise the gap between Russia and the US grows and, in fact, accelerates.

So, in this respect initial delays of two tests and now a failure of Minuteman III signify a rather precarious state which US deterrent finds itself in. In this particular case the failure was ironic since the stated goal was to send the message to allies. Well, they surely got the message.

No doubt Russia and China got a message, too.

The USAF says, Not to worry! They learn important things from every test. Like, the importance of having your missiles actually work. Imagine trying a pre-emptive strike and having your missiles go Thud! back to earth.

It seems our elected representatives didn’t get the message, because they went ahead and voted for war. No doubt they were told the checks would be in the mail. No fail there.