The Hegemonic Impulse Becomes A Trap (1)
The problem with hegemony is that it can become a state of mind. Almost a reflex response of attempted domination to any challenging situation. That’s not healthy, but it’s where we in the West are. Or so it seems. And now we’re running up against the limits of hegemony. It’s becoming more and more apparent that the hegemonic response is starting to drag us down by involving us in multiple insoluble conflicts.
What are our current insoluble conflicts? First, the effort to dominate and humiliate a great power, Russia. Second, our effort to dominate and humiliate a great power, China. Third, our effort to dominate and humiliate the Muslim Middle East. It might be possible to argue whether any of these three conflicts taken separately would have been insoluble. The first two taken together certainly has proved to be a challenge that we cannot resolve in any way that would satisfy the hegemonic impulse. Add in the third to the mix …
It’s no longer unusual to read open admissions that our war against Russia in Ukraine has been lost—and at great cost to our standing, both military and diplomatic, in the world. Time has a new article out that goes into that, but I recommend MoA’s summary:
The War Is Lost - Zelenski Will Leave - The White House Has Failed
I won’t spend time on the military details. This was a war of our choosing. More to the point, it’s a war that our Neocons forced upon Ukraine—beginning with our coup in 2014. The loss of a generation is Ukraine’s reward for succumbing to the demands of the Neocons. We have lost vast amounts of military preparedness, and have discovered the limits of our power. Well, we should have.
Glenn Diesen has read the Time article and captures the moral bankruptcy behind Neocon dreams of world domination:
Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen
The "pro-Ukrainian" policy now would be for NATO to offer an end to its expansionism in negotiations with Russia, to get the best possible deal for Ukraine and end the war as soon as possible. Sacrificing Ukraine in the hope to weaken Russia has been a horrible strategy.
3:55 AM · Oct 31, 2023
An advisor of Zelensky explains that the war is coming to an end: - "He [Zelensky] deludes himself... We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.” - "People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow" https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/…
MoA also quotes an Italian article, which contains hints that the Zhou Regime may be approaching the Vietnam end game—regime change:
The Time piece is a signal. It announces the end of Zelenski's regime. I am sure that the National Security Council, as well as the State Department, is feverishly looking for an alternative - and for a face saving way to install it.
Someone seems to protect and promote Alexey Arestovich for exactly that purpose …
The Ukrainian elite can see it coming and so … they’re stealing like there’s no tomorrow. That’s their exit strategy. It remains to be seen whether the Neocons actually have an exit strategy from Ukraine. If they do, I haven’t seen it.
M. K. Bhadrakumar sees the end coming in Ukraine, with Russia in control and the American Empire struggling for a palatable solution. You didn’t read about this in the mainstream media, but you can read about it at Tass:
MOSCOW, October 25. /TASS/. Moscow has received a set of informal proposals from Washington regarding strategic stability issues, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told reporters.
"It is what is called a 'non-paper.' That said, it’s on paper but it is an informal pro memoria (note pertaining to a diplomatic discussion - TASS)," he said, commenting on reports that Russia had received US proposals on strategic stability and arms control.
When asked if Moscow was ready to assess them, the deputy foreign minister said: "We are doing exactly that together with other agencies." "There is nothing new. It is a well-known position that has been put into a single document. We are calmly studying it and will give a response to the Americans in due time. It is too early to talk about the form of our response," the senior Russian diplomat added.
When asked whether it could be viewed as a resumption of dialogue, Ryabkov said: "No. They are suggesting that a dialogue on strategic stability and arms control be maintained on a regular basis, irrespective of and in isolation from any other developments." "We are not ready for that because we believe that, as long as the US does not change its deeply hostile policy toward Russia, it will be impossible to return to a dialogue on strategic stability, including issues related to New START (the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty - TASS) and other matters, in accordance with previous [diplomatic] practices," the deputy foreign minister noted.
In other words, the Neocons are attempting to finesse a face saving exit and Russia is in no mood to oblige. Especially not, MKB notes, when events in the Middle East have become so … interesting—for the American Empire. It would be extremely helpful for the US to have the cooperation of Russia in the Middle East, but the American Empire has burned all useful bridges both to Russia as well as to the region.
Doug Macgregor provides a thumbnail overview of where that leaves us, which probably accords with the Russian assessment:
Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor
Israel set out in theory to destroy Hamas.
It is now confronting an increasingly united Islamic world.
For the first time in 1,000 years you have the Shiites and Sunnis who are united with one purpose, to STOP Israel.
Instead of responding to this the President as he always does is escalating.
Netanyahu is betting on this very heavily and believes that Israel together with our military power can prevail.
This is a big mistake.
12:13 PM · Oct 30, 2023
For one thing, all those US bases and naval assets are starting to look uncomfortably like hostages. Regional actors weren’t impressed by a few air strikes:
Alastair Crooke, in a typically excellent exchange with Judge Napolitano, delves into these issues. He maintains that the failure of the Israeli deterrence paradigm strikes, also, at the heart of the hegemonic order in the Middle East.
Alastair Crooke: The Deterrence Paradigm has Failed
Crooke begins with a discussion of how the Israeli government has lost the trust of its own people. The deterrence paradigm was supposed to prevent events like Hamas attacks in the south and Hezbollah attacks in the north. It hasn’t, and he cites the example of a town of 20k that was forced to evacuate from near the border with Lebanon. Then he moves on to Netanyahu’s state of mind, which is alarming—not only for Israelis but for Americans:
[10:59] [Netanyahu] doesn't believe that. He thinks he's leading Israel in this great struggle, this struggle of Armageddon, and that he is the only person that can lead it through this period. Everyone else thinks he's finished, but he doesn't believe that. He believes that if he could persuade America to destroy Iran or its nuclear program then he would be doubly vindicated because he's been advocating that for 20 years. So I think he sort of sees this sort great godlike sort of figure moving across the landscape, leading the troops on to this battle, this final Armageddon between absolute evil and the light. I don't want to overdo it, but it's very serious, the trend that I've been describing to you over a couple of programs. Increasingly, these ideas of it becoming an existential struggle are overtaking any real sort of diplomacy.
I think it's actually the United States that keeps holding him back, and the [Israeli] cabinet is bitterly divided on this. The American advice as I understand it is, 'Just do short, sharp, piercing probes into Gaza, but don't go all the way, go don't go full in.' And there've been complaints from Israeli generals who are of a different view and and are saying, 'What's the matter? This offensive is just sort of shrinking. every time we look at it, it's gone lesser, and lesser, and lesser. and that's reflected on the ground too. It's very hard in the fog of War to be really sure what's going on, but because we have lots of sources around the region the sort of big picture is Israel has gone into Gaza, but not in a major way. they've gone and they've suffered some ambushes--we do know that. The IDF say there are no casualties and it's a great success--it's sounding rather like you know a Ukrainian Deputy defense minister--but we do have absolute videos of Israeli troops killed by the northern border by Hezbollah. Hezbollah is filming everything. ...
Today Israel confirmed two soldiers killed in Gaza.
They've had some tanks that have come in through ... a sort of flat, empty space till you get to Gaza City. they've only got into that, really, and to the Salah ad-Din road, which is the main road going through Gaza. I think they've shot up one car. And then they've left. But they were ambushed, because Hamas went through the tunnels and caught them from behind, just as they did down in Rafah. and again there were casualties, and several reports suggest that the Israelis had to evacuate the casualties by helicopter.
[20:31]
What's happening in the West Bank gets no attention in the mainstream media, but the Israelis have had to start using aircraft F-16s against the towns in the West Bank. [Those towns] are not defended, or are not an enclave [like Gaza]--against Nablus, against Jenin. They're using F-16s and drones. It's a sort of low intensity War also in in the West Bank.
[21:28]
Q: We have seen in Ukraine how the myth of Western and NATO superiority has been exposed as a myth. You have articulated how the myth of Israeli security and intelligence superiority has been exposed as a myth. When these myths are exposed do they undermine the moral authority, the moral argument that the west and the Israelis have made?
It certainly undermines completely the legitimacy but, more importantly than that, it undermines the whole sense of deterence. The whole basis of Israel is its deterrence. They say that. A cabinet minister said, 'We have to respond with such overwhelming force that it sears the consciousness of all our enemies around the world, that they will never think of approaching us today.' And that is what was so smashed on the 7th of October—the whole idea of deterrence. As I described a little earlier, people just don't believe in it anymore. Israelis don't believe in it, let alone Turks, let alone people outside the region. Deterrence has gone, so how do you rebuild deterence? Just bombing Gaza isn't going to do it--that's actually increasing the polarization and the schism within the Middle East. So I don't think there's an answer.
And just to be very clear, we have always regarded Israel and its deterrence as a sort of little NATO for the Middle East, just as we have big NATO for Europe and for Ukraine. Israel was the little deterrence of NATO, like sort of overwhelming Force to keep the Middle East in the Hegemony. in The Wider Hegemony. so [the end of the deterrence myth is] a really profound blow. Which is why there's so much turmoil in Washington, thinking that if Israel is not able to put this back together this will be a major blow for the West and the Western ability to exercise its political influence around the globe.
[26:00]
Hamas sees what's happening in Gaza as a revolutionary act as an act that is awakening not just Palestinians but the whole Middle East. Awakening it for this big war that's coming, and this is what really concerns me--that it's becoming increasingly the sense of a metaphysical war against Western Civilization on the one side, the Western rule that has for the last 500 years set the rules for the conduct of politics around the world, and a new metaphysical struggle against against the West. And that's what he's talking about--a revolutionary spirit.
So, as if one insoluble conflict weren’t enough, we now have two. With every prospect of things going from bad to worse. And so Putin has weighed in, sensing the revolution in the moment:
The US and its allies are the “main beneficiaries of the global instability,” the Russian president said, arguing that the West was making “blood money” from various conflicts.
Actually—and I’m sure Putin understands this—the US is fine with global instability, as long as we control it. When the instability turns up unbidden by our Deep State, that’s a whole ‘nuther matter. But he is right about one thing—up till now chaos in the Middle East has been a fundamental part of our policy mix.
“The American-run world, with its single hegemon, is falling to pieces. It is gradually but irreversibly becoming a thing of the past,” Putin said.
Putin followed with: “They don’t want a lasting peace in the Holy Land. They want constant chaos in the Middle East. That’s why they are slandering the countries that are insisting on an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.”
So what’s going on in DC, in Congress, with all this chaos around the hegemonic sphere? This is rather interesting. It suggests at least a possibility that Congress may finally get involved. Let’s hear it for budget crises!
As the nation celebrates Halloween, the House and Senate are engaged in some spooky late-stage Republic chaos over aid to Israel and Ukraine amid a backdrop of yet another government shutdown looming in two weeks.
In short,
The government will run out of money (again) in roughly two weeks, requiring Congress to act (again).
According to Democrats and GOP Neocons such as Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham, America needs to send billions of taxpayer funds to both Israel and Ukraine, and won't consider any legislation that doesn't combine the two.
House Republicans under newly minted Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), as well as a group of Senate Republicans, want Israel aid separated from Ukraine aid, while the Biden White House wants to jam a $105 billion foreign aid package ($14B to Israel, $60B to Ukraine) through Congress.
The House's plan (if they can even pass it) to separate Israel aid from Ukraine aid is DOA in the Senate, while both the Senate's combined package and the Biden admin's package is DOA in the House.
The House and the Senate also need to pass 12 appropriations measures for 2024, or face a 1% across-the-board cut on defense and nondefense spending, per the debt ceiling bill passed earlier this year.
While Johnson is hoping to push this through in a Thursday vote in the House (with no guarantee it'll pass), Senate Republicans and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) - who love war and defending foreign borders, are a no-go, with Schumer calling it "insulting."
Insulting? Sticks and stones, as far as I’m concerned. But this does seem a bit like late imperial dysfunction, perhaps driven by the realization that the nation is slowly waking up to what’s going on. BTW, there’s lots more at the link.
And one last political link:
This could turn out to be important in two states—to my limited knowledge—that the Dems are counting on. Or maybe three. Well, who knows? I’m thinking that what happens with the Muslim vote could be decisive in Michigan, New Jersey, and Minnesota. The author suggests Pennsylvania, as well. As I’ve said before—and here I agree with the author—I wouldn’t expect a mass switchover to the GOP. Rather, the danger for Dems is very selective voting—or not turning out at all. Dem strategy is all about turnout.
Looks like we have three global politicians willing to risk WW3 just so they can eke out a few more years in power: Bibi, Biden and Zelensky.
Thank you Mark - excellent post. Neocons have a lot to answer for, and they need to answer, and then be put away forever as deterrence to focus the minds of the next clowns who come along. The ‘lets you and him fight’ strategy is disgusting.