Today Moon of Alabama has a nice write up that largely consists of quotes from economist Michael Hudson and a concluding comment from Vladimir Putin:
We have periodically discussed the fact that the sanctions regime that the United States is pushing on the NATO/EU countries is, predictably, backfiring. Rather than reducing the ruble to rubble, as Zhou likes to say, it is the economies of the West that are threatened with rubbishing due to the increasing cost of energy that the sanctions regime is bringing about. Every day we see new signs of the strain that the prospect of recession is bringing about.
What I’ll do here is simply excerpt the quotations from the MoA post—they constitute a pretty coherent narrative. Hudson’s argument, as you’ll see, is that the war on Russia was instigated by the US as a last resort to hold the West in line with the US. The reason the US was driven to this last resort is a product of the mismanagement of our own economy. The economic mismanagement, of course, flows from the political collapse of America as a constitutional republic into a Potemkin village masking oligarchical rule by a largely unaccountable ruling class whose interests are at direct variance with those of the subject population.
Thus, a new Cold War verging on a Hot War with Russia is the solution that will allow the United States to retain its dominance over the NATO/EU countries. Russia is the target for two reasons: 1) Because it is the source of cheap energy that threatens the American hold over the NATO/EU countries, and 2) Russia, and only Russia, can serve as the boogeyman that will unite both the subject American population as well as enough of the expanded NATO to force reluctant EU countries to toe the line—to commit economic suicide. Ukraine, dependent on US aid, is the perfect vehicle for implementing this strategy. The planning for this most likely stretches back before the 2014 US sponsored coup against the Ukrainian government.
Here we go—the connected excerpts actually derive from comments made by Hudson from February to April of this year. I believe they offer a big picture perspective for understanding what’s going one today:
America no longer has the monetary power and seemingly chronic trade and balance-of-payments surplus that enabled it to draw up the world’s trade and investment rules in 1944-45. The threat to U.S. dominance is that China, Russia and Mackinder’s Eurasian World Island heartland are offering better trade and investment opportunities than are available from the United States with its increasingly desperate demand for sacrifices from its NATO and other allies.
The most glaring example [of the sacrifices the US is demanding from its “allies”] is the U.S. drive to block Germany from authorizing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to obtain Russian gas for the coming cold weather. Angela Merkel agreed with Donald Trump to spend $1 billion building a new LNG port to become more dependent on highly priced U.S. LNG. (The plan was cancelled after the U.S. and German elections changed both leaders.) But Germany has no other way of heating many of its houses and office buildings (or supplying its fertilizer companies) than with Russian gas.
The only way left for U.S. diplomats to block European purchases is to goad Russia into a military response and then claim that avenging this response outweighs any purely national economic interest. As hawkish Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, explained in a State Department press briefing on January 27: “If Russia invades Ukraine one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.” The problem is to create a suitably offensive incident and depict Russia as the aggressor.
The recent prodding of Russia by expanding Ukrainian anti-Russian ethnic violence by Ukraine’s neo-Nazi post-2014 Maiden regime aims at forcing a showdown. It comes in response to the fear by U.S. interests that they are losing their economic and political hold on their NATO allies and other Dollar Area satellites as these countries have seen their major opportunities for gain to lie in increasing trade and investment with China and Russia.
...
As President Biden explained, the current military escalation (“Prodding the Bear”) is not really about Ukraine. Biden promised at the outset that no U.S. troops would be involved. But he has been demanding for over a year that Germany prevent the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from supplying its industry and housing with low-priced gas and turn to the much higher-priced U.S. suppliers.
...
[T]he most pressing U.S. strategic aim of NATO confrontation with Russia is soaring oil and gas prices. In addition to creating profits and stock-market gains for U.S. companies, higher energy prices will take much of the steam out of the German economy.
It is now clear that the New Cold War was planned over a year ago, with serious strategy associated with America’s perceived to block Nord Stream 2 as part of its aim of barring Western Europe (“NATO”) from seeking prosperity by mutual trade and investment with China and Russia.
...
So the Russian-speaking Donetsk and Luhansk regions were shelled with increasing intensity, and when Russia still refrained from responding, plans reportedly were drawn up for a great showdown last February – a heavy Western Ukrainian attack organized by U.S. advisors and armed by NATO.
And this may explain the regularly reported presence of NATO advisers running the Ukrainian military operations....
European trade and investment prior to the War to Create Sanctions had promised a rising mutual prosperity among Germany, France and other NATO countries vis-à-vis Russia and China. Russia was providing abundant energy at a competitive price, and this energy supply was to make a quantum leap with Nord Stream 2. Europe was to earn the foreign exchange to pay for this rising import trade by a combination of exporting more industrial manufactures to Russia and capital investment in rebuilding the Russian economy, e.g. by German auto companies, aircraft and financial investment. This bilateral trade and investment is now stopped – for many, many years, given NATO’s confiscation of Russia’s foreign reserves kept in euros and British sterling.
Now, next come Putin’s remarks, which I quoted in part just the other day. Putin is basically washing his hands with regard to the EU. The EU countries—being dominated by the US for its own geopolitical interests—are simply not relaible economic partners for Russia. Rather than attempting to build a beneficial economic relationship with the West—which is a natural for both Russia and the EU—Russia will reluctantly seek to construct a new economic system with the non-Western nations.
Today, we see that for purely political reasons, driven by their own ambitions, and under pressure from their US overlord, the European countries are imposing more sanctions on the oil and gas markets which will lead to more inflation. Instead of admitting their mistakes, they are looking for a guilty party elsewhere.
...
One gets the impression that Western politicians and economists simply forget basic economic laws or just choose to ignore them.
...
[S]aying no to Russian energy means that Europe will systemically and for the long term become the world’s most costly region for energy resources. Yes, prices will rise, and resources will go to counter these price hikes, but this will not change the situation significantly. Some analysts are saying that it will seriously or even irrevocably undermine the competitiveness of a significant portion of European industry, which is already losing ground to companies from other parts of the world. Now, these processes will certainly pick up pace. Clearly, the opportunities for economic activity, with its improvements, will leave Europe for other regions, as will Russia’s energy resources.
This economic auto-da-fe… suicide is, of course, the internal affair of the European countries.
...
Now our partners’ erratic actions – this is what they are – have resulted in a de facto growth in revenue in the Russian oil-and-gas sector in addition to the damage to the European economy.
...
Understanding what steps the West will take in the near future, we must reach conclusions in advance and be proactive, turning the thoughtless chaotic steps of some of our partners to our advantage for the benefit of our country. Naturally, we should not hope for their endless mistakes. We should simply, practically proceed from current realities, as I said.
Vladimir Putin, Meeting on oil industry development, May 17 2020, Kremlin, Moscow
Apologies for length:
While the economic missteps and results are absolutely and terrifyingly real, I suggest that they are not the reason for what it's happening. The "Sanctions War" is clearly hurting the West more than it is hurting Russia. So why continue?
You can find a clue in the absolute implacability in the actions of each participating regime. As an example, consider Canada's Trucker Rebellion. All Castreau had to do was to say "OK, we'll talk" and the entire event would have disappeared. Instead, he intentionally caused a national crisis, a deep split in the people, and exposure of Canada as a de facto dictatorship.
Why? Because he was ordered to.
And because he believed in The Cause.
What Cause?
There is an Unholy Alliance between the Radical Environmentalists ("Global Warming - The planet is going to die!"), the Malthusians ("Too many humans are destroying the planet. We must reduce the number!"), and the Davos Crowd = WEF ("We deserve to rule because we are The Best!") Each of these beliefs is the basis for an ideology, a religion if you will. Followers will not deviate from the dogma BECAUSE THEY ARE BELIEVERS.
It matters not that their actions are self-destructive or that they are contrary to the will and the interests of their subjects. The Believers are Saving The World and nothing will convince them that they are wrong.
So prepare yourselves for the New Dark Ages. We are about to see the destruction of our fossil-fuel based economy, large-scale depopulation, and global authoritarian government and elimination of individual rights (for the Greater Good, you know).
Unless we stop them.
"One gets the impression that Western politicians and economists simply forget basic economic laws or just choose to ignore them."
We can ignore them because a new law called Modern Monetary Theory has been revealed to us, and by following this law we will arrive at the rosy future in which you will own nothing and you will be happy.