As I expected (A Theory Of The Prigozhin Regime Change Farce), more and more commentators are openly asking what has seemed to me to be the obvious and key question. Larry Johnson frames the question in all its baldness this morning: WAS PRIGOZHIN’S MUTINY A WESTERN INTELLIGENCE OP DERAILED BY RUSSIA’S SPIES?
Larry Johnson over at Sonar21 has a horrific video up of Ukrainian soldiers stuck in a minefield. It's a ghastly reminder of what this war really means on the ground. Whatever side one is on, the Ukrainians are brave soldiers, and Nuland and the other neocon psychopaths need to rot in hell for what they've done.
There was a report out earlier from Russia where it suggests they were monitoring who chose to leave the country Saturday night. Eg accomplices. Sure findings will be kept under wraps.
Also, the early May attack on the Kremlin comes to mind. Speculating Prigozhin may have shared some relative information.
WE here in America have been told for months that Russia is turning against Putin, and that Putin is in imminent danger of losing his power and maybe his life. Maybe Prigozhin, faced with losing his power and his wealth, listened to and was promised aid from the CIA and others, and was dumb enough to put his trust in them and their promises. Any American with half a brain knows better.
The guy’s a mercenary. In which case, I think his image as a Russian patriot is probably overdone. Something not mentioned in Mark’s otherwise excellent discussion is the fact that, in the end, Prigozhin was shockingly spouting Ukrainian talking points — i.e., that Ukraine had not been shelling the Donbas in recent years and that the entire SMO was initiated under false pretenses. That doesn’t sound like someone who was merely frustrated at the pace of the war, but was otherwise committed to the cause. Rather, it sounds like someone who sold out his country for his own gain.
Prigozhin is a double agent. He has always been working for Putin. He has been Putin's friend for over 20 years.
He pretended to 'defect' and set up the coup with the assistance of Ukraine/CIA/MI6. The crazy videos etc. were to convince Ukraine/CIA/MI6 that he was on their team. The march on Moscow was to convince Ukraine/CIA/MI6 that he was on their team. They trusted him (for months) and exposed him to a lot of Ukraine/CIA/MI6 strategy/plans/info. To all of their plans. If he's lucky, Prigozhin now knows exactly what Ukraine/CIA/MI6 has in store for Russia. And he has told Putin what he learned.
Now he has to go on pretending that he is a traitor and disappear somewhere into the bowels of Belarus. But its not Putin and the FSB Prigozhin has to worry about. He was working with them all along. Its Ukraine/CIA/MI6 he has to avoid...he utterly betrayed them.
If he survives, when he re-emerges, Putin will award him the Hero of Russia and Gold Star for heroic feats of valour and service to the Russian state.
I promise I hadn't read Larry (or Ray-SoCa) before posting! :-)
Who knows (yet) what the real truth is...It just seems funny to me that Prigozhin could commit undeniable 'treason' out loud, in Putin's face, and then freely go into hiding in Belarus with Lukashenko's protection. Some of Larry's commenters who disagree with the theory note that Russian pilots were apparently killed by Wagner insurrectionists and that Putin held a minute of silence for their deaths. So an attempted coup must have happened. Others have replied that there is no video or other proof of these Russian deaths. маскировка? Should we be surprised that maskiróvka has a Russian provenance?
There would appear to be three theories: that Prigozhin was working for himself, that Prigozhin was working for Ukraine/CIA/MI6, and that Prigozhin was working for Russia. If he were working in his own self-interest to overthrow the Russian military leadership or government in a coup d'état, I think he would be in Russian custody or more likely dead today. Undoubtedly the same if he was working for Ukraine/CIA/MI6.
So he must have been working for Russia.
And there's cui bono. At this stage it sure looks like Putin is the winner. Hasn't his approval rating in Russia gone even higher since the Prigozhin Show began?
Bobby A. in these comments suggests there was no benefit from the Prigozhin Show to Putin, Shoigu or Surovikin...so Prigozhin couldn't have been working for Russia. I'm not so sure. At a minimum, some Russians must have shown their cards to Putin and his political allies as the Show unfolded...
Well, as one of Larry's commenters says, "The night is young..." And the war is not nearly over.
You're welcome. This whole episode has hurt my head but I'm with you and Larry, mostly - this 'rebellion' 'coup'.or whatever makes no sense unless looked upon as some kind of staged event. Prighozin in 'exile' offered by Putin Fanboy #1 Lukashenko and the 2000 mercenaries who marched on Moscow and supposedly shot down Russian pilots are allowed to just dissipate back into the ranks makes no sense to me. I'm open to theories and I may be wrong but as rebellions go this felt forced. The farcical nature of it is because the script was so bad. And it's the west that is currently off balance - everyone who is opining on this seems to be riffing off the top of their heads, changing their tune as needed day to day. At least that's how I see it.
The part about the script being so bad is...problematic. You would have thought that wiser heads in Ukraine/CIA/MI6 would have seen through Prigozhin's clown act and suspected he was faking it...and actually working for Putin. Could they really be so stupid? (Rhetorical...)
Maybe desperate rather than stupid - judging by the ridiculous headlines I see, they seem to think the public will buy whatever they put out. If Prighozin was their best and likely only option they worked with what they had. It all still feels like we are trying to square a circle.
All of the above could be true, but Prigozhin could have also double crossed the Western and Ukranian Intel Services and pocketed the money.
This still feels as similar to the Erdogen Coup that resulted in a decimation of anti Erdogen Forces. The end result of the Prigozhin "Coup" is a lot of 5th and 6th column forces have been identified, including Western and UA Intel Assets.
The pre-written Western Media articles that dropped Saturday morning are a big tell that Western Intel were involved.
So that's where the 6.2 billion "accounting error" went - to the CIA to pay off Prigozhin. Hope he got the money up front. Wonder how much Putin will let him keep?
Thanks for linking Mearsheimer's essay. It was interesting, but covered some of the same ground as past articles I've read. Yes, gloomy indeed. It was long so I haven't had a chance to view some of the insightful comments. I am more convinced then ever that the USA is not the good guy here and well as the effeminate and weak Europeans. That so many of their leaders are globalist. climate change warmongers who pretend they are seeking to spead democracy while oppressing their own people much like the USA. I am not fooled by the talk of democracy, it's is and always been a ruse under Democratic leadership. they want single party power supported by the GOPe, and it's 99.9$ about wealth enhancement and political influence and power. Once they give Democrats full control they may not be able to save themselves from the crack down to come., IMHO.
He sums up the situation well but without adding much that we don't know already. He is right, however, that this will end in a frozen conflict rather than a peace settlement. Russia will win in Ukraine but have to endure continued neocon pinpricks and provocations. As Mark mentions below, Mearsheimer's weakness is that he sees "the West" as more monolithic than it really is. He gives a shortish paragraph to the various faultlines in the EU, but no more. For my part, I think that the Prog coup showed that Russia will remain unified in its aims much longer than the West. At some point, EU countries will start to break away from each other and the US, and who knows, maybe the neocons will be ousted as the US economy suffers and people start to realise how much damage they have caused. The only positive point - and it IS really positive - is that he sees the likelihood of nuclear war fading if and when Russia wins. I hope he is right.
The drawing and quartering was not unique to Russia as most Kings/Queens treated their traitors similarly. A horrific death to be sure. I agree there must be some covert aspect to this WRT Prigozhin that has not yet been revealed. It was bizarre to say the least.
My own theory is that Putin is smart enough to go slow with destroying cherished illusions of Prigozhin the patriot. He'll let the truth trickle out slowly to prepare the people for justice.
Jun 28, 2023·edited Jun 28, 2023Liked by Mark Wauck
This article makes perfect sense. (And I also tend to agree with your theory, Mark. I don't see the double agent theory working given everything we know.)
"Unfortunately, we will not see the most interesting, hidden part of the fight against the rebellion and the elimination of the possibility of a new one, which is now entering the active phase. This show is not for the general public. But the real, not intermediate, finish will definitely be. Everyone will receive according to their deeds."
What this author states can be reconciled with Putin's position in the following video:
You are right, I believe, in stating that Putin recognizes Wagner's popularity and will proceed accordingly. Nevertheless justice will not ultimately be denied. It will only be slightly deferred until the agents of the rebellion are incentivized to identify one another.
Larry Johnson over at Sonar21 has a horrific video up of Ukrainian soldiers stuck in a minefield. It's a ghastly reminder of what this war really means on the ground. Whatever side one is on, the Ukrainians are brave soldiers, and Nuland and the other neocon psychopaths need to rot in hell for what they've done.
There was a report out earlier from Russia where it suggests they were monitoring who chose to leave the country Saturday night. Eg accomplices. Sure findings will be kept under wraps.
Also, the early May attack on the Kremlin comes to mind. Speculating Prigozhin may have shared some relative information.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/24/us/politics/ukraine-kremlin-drone-attack.html
Imagine trying to write the script for the Hollywood blockbuster version of this circa 2040...
I’m trying to think of a funny sarcastic title…
When Priggy Met Puty? Aprogalypse Now? GroundedPrig Day? I'm sure we can think of more...
Send your ideas to Spielberg, or, come to think of it, Oliver Stone!
Better yet, how about Mel Gibson? Might be a more honest take on this, cinematically that is.
Gibson as Prigozhin? Now there’s a thought!
WE here in America have been told for months that Russia is turning against Putin, and that Putin is in imminent danger of losing his power and maybe his life. Maybe Prigozhin, faced with losing his power and his wealth, listened to and was promised aid from the CIA and others, and was dumb enough to put his trust in them and their promises. Any American with half a brain knows better.
That's my take too. A genuine coup with CIA backing, and possible pre-knowledge on Putin's part.
It’s hard to believe any Russian would trust any American at this point.
Not at the behest. Common ground. The enemy of my enemy...
The “march for justice “ nomenclature came about later when he realized he had no end game and no support.
Sounds like he went all BLM.
Big Serge’s characterization of Prigozhin and Wagner makes sense to me: “To Prigozhin, Wagner is first and foremost a business which has made him a huge amount of money…” (https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-wagner-uprising.)
The guy’s a mercenary. In which case, I think his image as a Russian patriot is probably overdone. Something not mentioned in Mark’s otherwise excellent discussion is the fact that, in the end, Prigozhin was shockingly spouting Ukrainian talking points — i.e., that Ukraine had not been shelling the Donbas in recent years and that the entire SMO was initiated under false pretenses. That doesn’t sound like someone who was merely frustrated at the pace of the war, but was otherwise committed to the cause. Rather, it sounds like someone who sold out his country for his own gain.
I mentioned all that in the "Theory" post.
I shoulda checked that. Sorry.
"someone who sold out his country for his own gain." Gee, that seems to be an everyday occurrence these days.
Like Zhou?
Or... another alternative theory:
Prigozhin is a double agent. He has always been working for Putin. He has been Putin's friend for over 20 years.
He pretended to 'defect' and set up the coup with the assistance of Ukraine/CIA/MI6. The crazy videos etc. were to convince Ukraine/CIA/MI6 that he was on their team. The march on Moscow was to convince Ukraine/CIA/MI6 that he was on their team. They trusted him (for months) and exposed him to a lot of Ukraine/CIA/MI6 strategy/plans/info. To all of their plans. If he's lucky, Prigozhin now knows exactly what Ukraine/CIA/MI6 has in store for Russia. And he has told Putin what he learned.
Now he has to go on pretending that he is a traitor and disappear somewhere into the bowels of Belarus. But its not Putin and the FSB Prigozhin has to worry about. He was working with them all along. Its Ukraine/CIA/MI6 he has to avoid...he utterly betrayed them.
If he survives, when he re-emerges, Putin will award him the Hero of Russia and Gold Star for heroic feats of valour and service to the Russian state.
Larry Johnson posted a similar theory a couple of days back.
Thanks, Amanda! I'm still turning the whole Prigozhin Show around in my head.
Here's a link to Larry's version: https://sonar21.com/was-prigozhins-mutiny-a-western-intelligence-op-derailed-by-russias-spies/. Numerous of the comments expand on the double agent theory. Some disagree.
I promise I hadn't read Larry (or Ray-SoCa) before posting! :-)
Who knows (yet) what the real truth is...It just seems funny to me that Prigozhin could commit undeniable 'treason' out loud, in Putin's face, and then freely go into hiding in Belarus with Lukashenko's protection. Some of Larry's commenters who disagree with the theory note that Russian pilots were apparently killed by Wagner insurrectionists and that Putin held a minute of silence for their deaths. So an attempted coup must have happened. Others have replied that there is no video or other proof of these Russian deaths. маскировка? Should we be surprised that maskiróvka has a Russian provenance?
There would appear to be three theories: that Prigozhin was working for himself, that Prigozhin was working for Ukraine/CIA/MI6, and that Prigozhin was working for Russia. If he were working in his own self-interest to overthrow the Russian military leadership or government in a coup d'état, I think he would be in Russian custody or more likely dead today. Undoubtedly the same if he was working for Ukraine/CIA/MI6.
So he must have been working for Russia.
And there's cui bono. At this stage it sure looks like Putin is the winner. Hasn't his approval rating in Russia gone even higher since the Prigozhin Show began?
Bobby A. in these comments suggests there was no benefit from the Prigozhin Show to Putin, Shoigu or Surovikin...so Prigozhin couldn't have been working for Russia. I'm not so sure. At a minimum, some Russians must have shown their cards to Putin and his political allies as the Show unfolded...
Well, as one of Larry's commenters says, "The night is young..." And the war is not nearly over.
You're welcome. This whole episode has hurt my head but I'm with you and Larry, mostly - this 'rebellion' 'coup'.or whatever makes no sense unless looked upon as some kind of staged event. Prighozin in 'exile' offered by Putin Fanboy #1 Lukashenko and the 2000 mercenaries who marched on Moscow and supposedly shot down Russian pilots are allowed to just dissipate back into the ranks makes no sense to me. I'm open to theories and I may be wrong but as rebellions go this felt forced. The farcical nature of it is because the script was so bad. And it's the west that is currently off balance - everyone who is opining on this seems to be riffing off the top of their heads, changing their tune as needed day to day. At least that's how I see it.
The part about the script being so bad is...problematic. You would have thought that wiser heads in Ukraine/CIA/MI6 would have seen through Prigozhin's clown act and suspected he was faking it...and actually working for Putin. Could they really be so stupid? (Rhetorical...)
Maybe desperate rather than stupid - judging by the ridiculous headlines I see, they seem to think the public will buy whatever they put out. If Prighozin was their best and likely only option they worked with what they had. It all still feels like we are trying to square a circle.
Yes. Desperate...because the total volume of provable lies which the Deep State/s is/are putting out...in all directions...is becoming overwhelming.
Recently:
Prigozhin...Ukraine...Durham...Trump...Joe...Hunter...Elections...Jan 6
Are the headlines you are referring to in the UK or US or both?
Cassandra gave Larry the tip a few days ago to take the bulk of the negative comments. JK.
All of the above could be true, but Prigozhin could have also double crossed the Western and Ukranian Intel Services and pocketed the money.
This still feels as similar to the Erdogen Coup that resulted in a decimation of anti Erdogen Forces. The end result of the Prigozhin "Coup" is a lot of 5th and 6th column forces have been identified, including Western and UA Intel Assets.
The pre-written Western Media articles that dropped Saturday morning are a big tell that Western Intel were involved.
Agreed, Ray. I just cross-posted similar thoughts.
It was a coup attempt probably known about and supported by the neocon dolts. Now, can we get back to the real fighting?
That seems to be the next neocon trick. After that, I'm not sure what they have left. Maybe that Putin is transphobic.
Putin has already expressed his opinion on gay marriage and trans. He's against them because they violate Orthodox Christianity.
Yep. Another reason why I respect the guy and love Russia.
Did I ever tell ya how much I like Putin?
No, the Big Question is this::
How successful was it as a honeypot for Western Globalistas?
So that's where the 6.2 billion "accounting error" went - to the CIA to pay off Prigozhin. Hope he got the money up front. Wonder how much Putin will let him keep?
And Trumpy only wanted 5bn to build the wall. Shows where the priorities are, doesn't it?
Thanks for linking Mearsheimer's essay. It was interesting, but covered some of the same ground as past articles I've read. Yes, gloomy indeed. It was long so I haven't had a chance to view some of the insightful comments. I am more convinced then ever that the USA is not the good guy here and well as the effeminate and weak Europeans. That so many of their leaders are globalist. climate change warmongers who pretend they are seeking to spead democracy while oppressing their own people much like the USA. I am not fooled by the talk of democracy, it's is and always been a ruse under Democratic leadership. they want single party power supported by the GOPe, and it's 99.9$ about wealth enhancement and political influence and power. Once they give Democrats full control they may not be able to save themselves from the crack down to come., IMHO.
He sums up the situation well but without adding much that we don't know already. He is right, however, that this will end in a frozen conflict rather than a peace settlement. Russia will win in Ukraine but have to endure continued neocon pinpricks and provocations. As Mark mentions below, Mearsheimer's weakness is that he sees "the West" as more monolithic than it really is. He gives a shortish paragraph to the various faultlines in the EU, but no more. For my part, I think that the Prog coup showed that Russia will remain unified in its aims much longer than the West. At some point, EU countries will start to break away from each other and the US, and who knows, maybe the neocons will be ousted as the US economy suffers and people start to realise how much damage they have caused. The only positive point - and it IS really positive - is that he sees the likelihood of nuclear war fading if and when Russia wins. I hope he is right.
I looked at that a bit last night. I'm not sure whether he assumes a greater degree of stability in the West than may be warranted.
The drawing and quartering was not unique to Russia as most Kings/Queens treated their traitors similarly. A horrific death to be sure. I agree there must be some covert aspect to this WRT Prigozhin that has not yet been revealed. It was bizarre to say the least.
I'm inclined to agree w you Anna.
Ouch!
My own theory is that Putin is smart enough to go slow with destroying cherished illusions of Prigozhin the patriot. He'll let the truth trickle out slowly to prepare the people for justice.
Revenge is best served cold. I hope P has a good food taster
"Was Prigozhin acting alone (unlikely) ...?"
For one Russian perspective on that, try a translate app at this link:
https://ukraina.ru/20230625/1047547986.html?in=t&_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=nui
This article makes perfect sense. (And I also tend to agree with your theory, Mark. I don't see the double agent theory working given everything we know.)
"Unfortunately, we will not see the most interesting, hidden part of the fight against the rebellion and the elimination of the possibility of a new one, which is now entering the active phase. This show is not for the general public. But the real, not intermediate, finish will definitely be. Everyone will receive according to their deeds."
What this author states can be reconciled with Putin's position in the following video:
https://7enews.net/en/news-en/world-news-en/putin-one-thing-i-can-never-forgive-video/
You are right, I believe, in stating that Putin recognizes Wagner's popularity and will proceed accordingly. Nevertheless justice will not ultimately be denied. It will only be slightly deferred until the agents of the rebellion are incentivized to identify one another.