Megatron wrote: "Reportedly Iran will propose to the US to support the 'establishment of a nuclear-free Middle East', essentially the denuclearization of Israel."
Now how could the Trump admin. say no to such a thing? Trump woud be a hero in Americans' eyes (actually the eyes of the 'Christian' Zionists would not approve), and he would have the respect of most of the world.
“There’s too much else going on that involves Trump’s and America’s true interests. This highjacking of America by Jewish Nationalism will need to end.“ thank you MW!
"Can Trump pull this off? Can he remain before the public eye by raising expectations for grand peacemaking deals, while substituting withdrawals, climbdowns, and even slapdowns of erstwhile war mongering allies?"
Kinda yes.
There are so many positives that the Trump Gov has done and in the works, that these will gloss over failures.
Looks like I'll be disenfranchised. My passport is long expired, I doubt I can get Real ID because all my docs have a different middle name from my Birth Cert. Any yet I worked 33 years for the fed government.
I hafta wonder whether this will work against GOPers. What % of their base have passports/Real ID?
Mark, getting a Real ID at the Illinois DMV will be a slam dunk. 1) they hardly review the documents and 2) being Illinois just have a $50 in your pocket to slide across the counter. You'll be fine.
My passport expired around 2010 and I kept meaning to do it for years and didn't. I had to start over as if I never had one so that means showing up in person and I did that March 21 and my new passport arrived today. They say expect 6-8 weeks so, I was mildly surprise at how quickly they turned it around. You should do it, Mark.
OK, thanks. I had a problem a few years ago because of my BC. Someone told me at that time that expired PP was no good, or after a certain number of years. Official PP site doesn't say that, but online a lot of people say they've run into that belief by clerks.
BC? I read the on-line instructions quite a few times to be sure. While, they state you must start over. the expired PP, even if it's around 15 years past, notes you have had one and it made, at least my process, quicker. Good luck on that. BTW.....The biggest difficulty I had was finding a location to secure an in-person appointment. There is a section on line that will give you locations in your area. I checked first for ones closest then worked my way outward. found one only 10 miles away from where I live at a suburban government city center.
IF. IF. IF. Trump were to accept the Iranians' offer, this is exactly what it would look like right now. I am going to double down and say that is what happening. And frankly, the more peopale freak out about crazy, idiotic, Trump, the better the chances of him pulling it off and leaving Israel without their nukes.
Trump has assigned himself the role of the bull in the china shop. His job is to be a distraction and draw international attention to himself as unpredictable and unstable. In reality, deals are being done in the shadows and when the smoke clears, most will be viewed very positively except for by the Globalists and Deep Staters. Russia will achieve all the objectives of the SMO. China will largely disengage from the US market. Manufacturing will begin to return the US. Iran will get sanctions relief in exchange for sending its highly enriched uranium to Russia, but still get to keep the centrifuges. And the US Treasury will get its short term debt refinanced later this year. All of which buys time for Trump to push a new legislative agenda in the second half of this year.
Apologies if this does not sound... constructive, but:
Just got off my weekly chat with my sister, which ran for 2 hours this time, in which I indulged in four, 6.4%, 12oz beers... so:
My cynical, 'burn it down', self has come to the conclusion that Trump is definitely more focused on saving America itself (I'm Canadian BTW), and that he might be of the opinion that, the only way to save America, is to ignore - or tune out - what is happening in the rest of the world, or what may happen due to his decisions with regards to saving America.
I.E. - Russia is dragging it's feet on Ukraine... who cares?
- China is mad at the tariffs - who cares?
- Iran not being 'cooperative' - who cares?**
Trump is allowing all of this to happen in order to go into 'bunker mode' with the US. If the US is going to go through some hard times in order to right the ship; may as well have the rest of the world suffer similar.
Cheers
** - and yes, this may be a way throw up his hands, or shrug his shoulders, to Israel and say "I tried". ;)
I haven't checked in for a few days, Mark, so I'm not sure if you've covered the latest Duran or Nima podcasts. Their guests, Alistair Crooke and Larry Johnson, both think this is heading for war. Johnson in particular is especially pessimistic. Crooke makes a very valid point that we are all looking too much at the political and diplomatic to-ing and fro-ing and forgetting Harold McMillan's famous quip that what determines the outcomes is always "events, dear boy, events". In other words, someone like Trump can think he's bossing things but events can swiftly get out of hand and beyond the control of any of the players. And the key instigator of any such events that could lead to a ME conflagration will be Israel. Iran is not going to do a Serbia 1914-style capitulation, and Israel cannot survive if Iran lives. That significantly raises the possibilities of Israel attacking Iran and dragging the US in when things get difficult. And as you say, it's a two way street, so there's nothing to rule out Iran or the Houthis getting their retaliation in first. It's this kind of hair trigger febrility that Trump has injected into the situation with his crass stupidity and big mouth.
You make another point which I find harder to agree with: you correctly highlight that Trump is achieving some good things on the home front, but go on to say that he needs spectacular foreign policy wins to gain the real attention of the Great American Public. I would argue the opposite. Firstly, half of the aforementioned public wouldn't give Trump any praise if he cured cancer and found the answer to life. Nothing he can do will change their opinions of him. As for the other half who voted for him in the hope that he will turn America around, it's exactly his foreign policy mistakes that are LOSING him their support. They voted for him to destroy the homegrown deep state, not start even more forever wars. Trump should forget the international grandstanding and get back to doing the job he was voted in for.
You have that wrong: I don't he needs foreign policy wins to gain the real attention of Americans. Quite the contrary. I explicitly say that Trump operates on the premise that all publicity is good publicity, and it's usually easier for a president to get that publicity in FP. Not necessarily wins at all, just keeping himself front and center while the slow grind of domestic policy continues.
However ...
Watch Friday's Judge Nap in which LJ and Ray McGovern have some sharp disagreements on whether Trump is really heading for war with Iran.
Disagree. He's wrong if he believes that all publicity is good. Many erstwhile supporters are seeing him betray his promises to end the forever wars. Not good! As for Trump heading for war with Iran, as I said, if he is not careful, the momentum of events will be taken out of his hands. War with Iran will be heading for him whether he really wants it or not. As you say, the best outcome is that he backs down, goes for a new deal and claims it as a victory.
RE: Probable US Failure in Iran - if US were to attack - Trump Has No Plan
The U.S. Diplomacy Plan / Policy of ''' Chaos Destruction and Internal Overthrow '''
( eg: Iraq Sadaam, Libya Gaddafi; Syria Assad ((Ukraine 2014 )) ) what the US historically
[ McCain Nuland et.al. ] and their NGO Proxies commonly refer to as """ Old Reliable """ also unlikely to work
Religious Leadership: The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, wields ultimate authority [[[[Assad’s Alawite clique was a minority (10% of Syria); Iran’s Shia majority (90%) aligns with the regime’s identity, reducing sectarian fractures. ]]]
Military: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, ~200,000), loyal to the Supreme Leader.
=========================
So effectively Trump can Bomb them ( and anticipate retaliation ) but cannot send in troops and cannot cause an overthrow - Trump has no plan because there is no plan -
It has to have been a US dream that Putin and Iran would have military and equipment wasted in Syria, as well as time and attention.
Had Russia and Iran gone into Syria it would have them in part overextended, this was likely a 'great' US plan and Hope and Desire
Putin and Iran walking away was probably completely not expected by US not only did it leave Russia and Iran strengthened and prepared to defend Iran, it left the mess in US hands
Syria was a disaster for US in relation to their desire to disarm Iran.
Now US has to deal with Israel and Turkey in Syria as well as multiple other fronts, and the unholy mess they created
.
Very well played by Putin / US once again extended
I had done a quick background review in case anyone thought interesting
Bombing Iran and historical US requirements v Iraq (which US claims was such a great success)
Population in Iran ~85 million vs. Iraq’s ~18 million in 1991
Land Size Iran’s land area is approximately 1.65 million square kilometers vs. Iraq: ~438,317 sq km. Iran is about 3.8 times larger.
Iraq in 1991 had a demoralized, poorly led army post-Iran-Iraq War; estimated 300,000 to 400,000 combat effective troops v US coalitions 700,000
In 1991, the U.S.-led coalition deployed around 670,000–700,000 troops for Operation Desert Storm --- US Participation ~540,000 U.S. personnel (not all ground troops; many were air, naval, or support) [[ Effectively the US could never muster that coalition or US forces today ]].
Currrently The U.S. Army has ~450,000 active soldiers, with said and estimated 100,000–150,000 deployable for a single theater after rotations and commitments elsewhere - they could probably muster more deployable but at great effort [ Iran military is of course already there ].
... Logistics always matter - brutal vulnerability and expense for the US
Iran’s active forces number ~580,000, with ~350,000 reservists, plus IRGC units skilled in asymmetric warfare.
Allies: not just Russia and China but Hezbollah, Iraq and Houthis may assist Iran among others
- Iraq was pretty much alone
Weapons and Air Defenses: goes without saying, Iran has them
- This ain't no Iraq - this may be a brutal loss for the US the old pyrrhic victory even if a victory can somehow be claimed [[ after oil and other resources destroyed and perhaps a trillion $ expenditure ]]
Recommended to MoH readers: Richard Butler, former Chairman of the United Nations Special Commission whose long career has been committed to nuclear non-proliferation
About ten years ago Butler spoke in a conference at Penn State U hosted by Flynt Leverett, co-author of Going to Tehran --- and then-head of Penn State's dept. of international affairs.
At that conference, Butler related the story repeated in podcast ~21 min: that in 1995, in negotiations to extend the NPT, over a dozen representatives of NPT signatories including Iran and Egypt gathered around his dining room table. They hammered out a "bargained-for exchange" for their agreement to the permanent extension: that all states in the Mideast, including Israel, would gather to confer about making the entire region Nuclear weapons-free. That promise was never fulfilled. Perhaps Amb. Abbas Aragchi will remind Mr. Witkoff of that promise.
Great commentary from beginning to end, Mark. Thank you.
"...what he really could use at this point is a significant domestic victory—one that will appeal to his non-base voters, and not just to political news junkies."
Not sure if this fits the bill of what you were thinking... but from what I remember of recent polling, securing the border was VERY popular and not just among Trump's core supporters:
Well this brought a smile to my face~
Megatron wrote: "Reportedly Iran will propose to the US to support the 'establishment of a nuclear-free Middle East', essentially the denuclearization of Israel."
Now how could the Trump admin. say no to such a thing? Trump woud be a hero in Americans' eyes (actually the eyes of the 'Christian' Zionists would not approve), and he would have the respect of most of the world.
A great idea, with a hopeful and happy ending.
"President Trump exempts smartphones, computers, and chips from the new tariffs on China".
What about appliances and TV's? Is that next week's update? Asking for a friend.
I'd like incandescent light bulbs back, the LED one's suck.
I second that motion!
“There’s too much else going on that involves Trump’s and America’s true interests. This highjacking of America by Jewish Nationalism will need to end.“ thank you MW!
True dat, ML!
It’s often forgotten that the West supplied Iraq with weapons (Ukraine style) during the 1980s conflict with Iran.
Iran is under no illusions as to Western good will.
"Can Trump pull this off? Can he remain before the public eye by raising expectations for grand peacemaking deals, while substituting withdrawals, climbdowns, and even slapdowns of erstwhile war mongering allies?"
Kinda yes.
There are so many positives that the Trump Gov has done and in the works, that these will gloss over failures.
Real id or passport will be required to vote in federal elections. My mother was grousing about it this morning.
Tulsi commented electronic voting machines can be hacked.
Krebs of cisa, “most secure election ever”had his security clearance removed and will be investigated.
https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/10/trump-orders-federal-investigation-into-former-cisa-director-chris-krebs/
Looks like I'll be disenfranchised. My passport is long expired, I doubt I can get Real ID because all my docs have a different middle name from my Birth Cert. Any yet I worked 33 years for the fed government.
I hafta wonder whether this will work against GOPers. What % of their base have passports/Real ID?
I guess that is what is meant by “voter suppression!”
Mark, getting a Real ID at the Illinois DMV will be a slam dunk. 1) they hardly review the documents and 2) being Illinois just have a $50 in your pocket to slide across the counter. You'll be fine.
Only $50? I got to think with inflation it's up to $100. Corruption never sleeps.
It's a thought.
My passport expired around 2010 and I kept meaning to do it for years and didn't. I had to start over as if I never had one so that means showing up in person and I did that March 21 and my new passport arrived today. They say expect 6-8 weeks so, I was mildly surprise at how quickly they turned it around. You should do it, Mark.
Did you prove citizenship with your old passport? Mine expired in 2009.
If you have an old issue it helps the process move forward. I had DL and old PP.
OK, thanks. I had a problem a few years ago because of my BC. Someone told me at that time that expired PP was no good, or after a certain number of years. Official PP site doesn't say that, but online a lot of people say they've run into that belief by clerks.
BC? I read the on-line instructions quite a few times to be sure. While, they state you must start over. the expired PP, even if it's around 15 years past, notes you have had one and it made, at least my process, quicker. Good luck on that. BTW.....The biggest difficulty I had was finding a location to secure an in-person appointment. There is a section on line that will give you locations in your area. I checked first for ones closest then worked my way outward. found one only 10 miles away from where I live at a suburban government city center.
At least the U.S. and Iran are talking.
IF. IF. IF. Trump were to accept the Iranians' offer, this is exactly what it would look like right now. I am going to double down and say that is what happening. And frankly, the more peopale freak out about crazy, idiotic, Trump, the better the chances of him pulling it off and leaving Israel without their nukes.
Everyone knows Israel doesn't have nukes. Getting them to belly up and agree should be Bibi's lasting legacy. BTW, won't happen.
Trump has assigned himself the role of the bull in the china shop. His job is to be a distraction and draw international attention to himself as unpredictable and unstable. In reality, deals are being done in the shadows and when the smoke clears, most will be viewed very positively except for by the Globalists and Deep Staters. Russia will achieve all the objectives of the SMO. China will largely disengage from the US market. Manufacturing will begin to return the US. Iran will get sanctions relief in exchange for sending its highly enriched uranium to Russia, but still get to keep the centrifuges. And the US Treasury will get its short term debt refinanced later this year. All of which buys time for Trump to push a new legislative agenda in the second half of this year.
You left the Arabs out.
Apologies if this does not sound... constructive, but:
Just got off my weekly chat with my sister, which ran for 2 hours this time, in which I indulged in four, 6.4%, 12oz beers... so:
My cynical, 'burn it down', self has come to the conclusion that Trump is definitely more focused on saving America itself (I'm Canadian BTW), and that he might be of the opinion that, the only way to save America, is to ignore - or tune out - what is happening in the rest of the world, or what may happen due to his decisions with regards to saving America.
I.E. - Russia is dragging it's feet on Ukraine... who cares?
- China is mad at the tariffs - who cares?
- Iran not being 'cooperative' - who cares?**
Trump is allowing all of this to happen in order to go into 'bunker mode' with the US. If the US is going to go through some hard times in order to right the ship; may as well have the rest of the world suffer similar.
Cheers
** - and yes, this may be a way throw up his hands, or shrug his shoulders, to Israel and say "I tried". ;)
Depends what kind of bunker he chooses, Russ. I hope it's not Hitler's kind of bunker :)
Here here Russ. I'll drink to that!
I haven't checked in for a few days, Mark, so I'm not sure if you've covered the latest Duran or Nima podcasts. Their guests, Alistair Crooke and Larry Johnson, both think this is heading for war. Johnson in particular is especially pessimistic. Crooke makes a very valid point that we are all looking too much at the political and diplomatic to-ing and fro-ing and forgetting Harold McMillan's famous quip that what determines the outcomes is always "events, dear boy, events". In other words, someone like Trump can think he's bossing things but events can swiftly get out of hand and beyond the control of any of the players. And the key instigator of any such events that could lead to a ME conflagration will be Israel. Iran is not going to do a Serbia 1914-style capitulation, and Israel cannot survive if Iran lives. That significantly raises the possibilities of Israel attacking Iran and dragging the US in when things get difficult. And as you say, it's a two way street, so there's nothing to rule out Iran or the Houthis getting their retaliation in first. It's this kind of hair trigger febrility that Trump has injected into the situation with his crass stupidity and big mouth.
You make another point which I find harder to agree with: you correctly highlight that Trump is achieving some good things on the home front, but go on to say that he needs spectacular foreign policy wins to gain the real attention of the Great American Public. I would argue the opposite. Firstly, half of the aforementioned public wouldn't give Trump any praise if he cured cancer and found the answer to life. Nothing he can do will change their opinions of him. As for the other half who voted for him in the hope that he will turn America around, it's exactly his foreign policy mistakes that are LOSING him their support. They voted for him to destroy the homegrown deep state, not start even more forever wars. Trump should forget the international grandstanding and get back to doing the job he was voted in for.
See Russell Smith comment above and call me in the morning.
You have that wrong: I don't he needs foreign policy wins to gain the real attention of Americans. Quite the contrary. I explicitly say that Trump operates on the premise that all publicity is good publicity, and it's usually easier for a president to get that publicity in FP. Not necessarily wins at all, just keeping himself front and center while the slow grind of domestic policy continues.
However ...
Watch Friday's Judge Nap in which LJ and Ray McGovern have some sharp disagreements on whether Trump is really heading for war with Iran.
Disagree. He's wrong if he believes that all publicity is good. Many erstwhile supporters are seeing him betray his promises to end the forever wars. Not good! As for Trump heading for war with Iran, as I said, if he is not careful, the momentum of events will be taken out of his hands. War with Iran will be heading for him whether he really wants it or not. As you say, the best outcome is that he backs down, goes for a new deal and claims it as a victory.
Bring the hammer down on The Bestest Ally. maybe that’s why Tulsi’s talking up the release of super secret JFK files?
That's the problem. She "talking up" their release, not releasing them. I really hope she doesn't turn into another Blondi Barbie.
Sundance was pretty pissed about how the Crossfire Hurricane files were handled. Ie, much like your note describes.
Yep. And we still await the Epstein island list.
RE: Probable US Failure in Iran - if US were to attack - Trump Has No Plan
The U.S. Diplomacy Plan / Policy of ''' Chaos Destruction and Internal Overthrow '''
( eg: Iraq Sadaam, Libya Gaddafi; Syria Assad ((Ukraine 2014 )) ) what the US historically
[ McCain Nuland et.al. ] and their NGO Proxies commonly refer to as """ Old Reliable """ also unlikely to work
Religious Leadership: The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, wields ultimate authority [[[[Assad’s Alawite clique was a minority (10% of Syria); Iran’s Shia majority (90%) aligns with the regime’s identity, reducing sectarian fractures. ]]]
Military: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, ~200,000), loyal to the Supreme Leader.
=========================
So effectively Trump can Bomb them ( and anticipate retaliation ) but cannot send in troops and cannot cause an overthrow - Trump has no plan because there is no plan -
------
..
.
At the End of the Day One Must Remember
Putin and Iran did not take the Syria Bait
It has to have been a US dream that Putin and Iran would have military and equipment wasted in Syria, as well as time and attention.
Had Russia and Iran gone into Syria it would have them in part overextended, this was likely a 'great' US plan and Hope and Desire
Putin and Iran walking away was probably completely not expected by US not only did it leave Russia and Iran strengthened and prepared to defend Iran, it left the mess in US hands
Syria was a disaster for US in relation to their desire to disarm Iran.
Now US has to deal with Israel and Turkey in Syria as well as multiple other fronts, and the unholy mess they created
.
Very well played by Putin / US once again extended
.
and the plan was to “extend Russia!”
I had done a quick background review in case anyone thought interesting
Bombing Iran and historical US requirements v Iraq (which US claims was such a great success)
Population in Iran ~85 million vs. Iraq’s ~18 million in 1991
Land Size Iran’s land area is approximately 1.65 million square kilometers vs. Iraq: ~438,317 sq km. Iran is about 3.8 times larger.
Iraq in 1991 had a demoralized, poorly led army post-Iran-Iraq War; estimated 300,000 to 400,000 combat effective troops v US coalitions 700,000
In 1991, the U.S.-led coalition deployed around 670,000–700,000 troops for Operation Desert Storm --- US Participation ~540,000 U.S. personnel (not all ground troops; many were air, naval, or support) [[ Effectively the US could never muster that coalition or US forces today ]].
Currrently The U.S. Army has ~450,000 active soldiers, with said and estimated 100,000–150,000 deployable for a single theater after rotations and commitments elsewhere - they could probably muster more deployable but at great effort [ Iran military is of course already there ].
... Logistics always matter - brutal vulnerability and expense for the US
Iran’s active forces number ~580,000, with ~350,000 reservists, plus IRGC units skilled in asymmetric warfare.
Allies: not just Russia and China but Hezbollah, Iraq and Houthis may assist Iran among others
- Iraq was pretty much alone
Weapons and Air Defenses: goes without saying, Iran has them
- This ain't no Iraq - this may be a brutal loss for the US the old pyrrhic victory even if a victory can somehow be claimed [[ after oil and other resources destroyed and perhaps a trillion $ expenditure ]]
.
Recommended to MoH readers: Richard Butler, former Chairman of the United Nations Special Commission whose long career has been committed to nuclear non-proliferation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRgCdlka498
About ten years ago Butler spoke in a conference at Penn State U hosted by Flynt Leverett, co-author of Going to Tehran --- and then-head of Penn State's dept. of international affairs.
At that conference, Butler related the story repeated in podcast ~21 min: that in 1995, in negotiations to extend the NPT, over a dozen representatives of NPT signatories including Iran and Egypt gathered around his dining room table. They hammered out a "bargained-for exchange" for their agreement to the permanent extension: that all states in the Mideast, including Israel, would gather to confer about making the entire region Nuclear weapons-free. That promise was never fulfilled. Perhaps Amb. Abbas Aragchi will remind Mr. Witkoff of that promise.
Great commentary from beginning to end, Mark. Thank you.
"...what he really could use at this point is a significant domestic victory—one that will appeal to his non-base voters, and not just to political news junkies."
Not sure if this fits the bill of what you were thinking... but from what I remember of recent polling, securing the border was VERY popular and not just among Trump's core supporters:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-orders-military-seal-southern-border-new-us-accelerates-hemispheric-defense
That's a novelty, isn't it? The US army defending its own borders instead of those of other far-flung countries.
Borders for me (gated community), but not for thee!
Let's try not bombing people 🙏
Okay, which pinko think tank thought of that? I hope Elon's on to them!
What a concept. We could wean ourselves from the habit gradually. First step, stop giving bombs to others.
Bombings fine
Just don't take my phone
JUST IN:  President Trump exempts smartphones
Good one
Apple CEO Tim Cook personally donated $1 million to Trump’s inauguration after the election
hmmmmm.
Ya think?