Sunday Roundup: Syria, Russia, Turkey

We’ll get the European aspect out of the way quickly, up front. As readers will be aware, the new US sanctions on Russia, if enforced, will crush much of Europe. The US knows this—and either regards this either with or unconcern or as a feature rather than a bug. It’s so obvious that many commentators have opted for latter alternative—the US really does want to crush Europe into utter servitude. Some of our NATO vassals are starting to scramble, especially those with historic ties to Russia or the USSR:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

European countries now appear to have to prepare in advance in case the unhinged Biden administration tries to attack their energy security.

4:51 AM · Dec 15, 2024

It’s a matter of self preservation, and these two countries are certainly better placed, historically and in terms of current relations, to get a break from Russia. Other countries—and most of Europe is reliant on Russian gas—may not be so fortunate.

Moving on.

Many commentators have also argued that Turkey never anticipated a complete collapse of the Syrian state—they thought they’d be able to occupy Aleppo and a few other areas in the north, but that would be about it. Now the deed has been done and Turkey is finding it necessary to improvise a bit. In particular, the question arises: What is Turkey—where public opinion is staunchly anti-Israel and pro annexation of “Syria”—supposed to do about about Israel bombing the sh*t out of a prostrate Syria that Erdogan has been loudly proclaiming as part of Turkey? Israel has been bombing virtually all non-Kurdish areas of “Syria”. And what about Israeli and US support for the hated Kurds? Here’s a report from an Azerbaijani media outlet:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

Turks telling the Israelis that they’ll shoot down any planes providing air support for the Kurds in Syria.

5:30 AM · Dec 15, 2024

They beautiful relationship hasn’t lasted long. Does this mean that Israel can do whatever it wants, short of supporting the Kurds? Erdogan will find himself shortly under considerable pressure to start drawing lines in the sand with regard to Israeli activity. Again, is Erdogan OK with US air support for the Kurds, or will he also turn on his NATO ally and on-again-off-again enabler?

This may be the context in which to view reports that Turkey might be happy for the Russians to remain in their bases.

dana @dana916

Russia has not withdrawn all its military units from Syria and is unlikely to leave the region in the near future, according to Turkey's defense minister.

Turkey is ready to assist Russia in its work with units in Syria, but has not yet received a request to do so, the Turkish defense minister said.

ukraine_watch

4:35 AM · Dec 15, 2024

That looks like Turkey actively and publicly inviting Russia to stay in Syria—as if there haven’t been private talks going on. It also suggests a degree of alarm on the Turkish side at the prospect of a Russian withdrawal. Obviously Erdogan sees an advantage in having a Russian presence in Syria—to play Russia off against the Anglo-Zionists, rather than having to deal with them all on his lonesome.

But, as Alexander Mercouris persuasively argues, a Russian base presence would also give Erdogan leverage over the Russians. Putin doesn’t need that—having to put up with more double crossing from Erdogan. So, while the Russians continue to talk, they are also continuing to wind up affairs in Syria—packing up their bases, flying their personnel out, terminating their grain shipments to Syria. Someone else’s problem now!

Kyle @Just24685375

I think Alex Mercouris is right. Russia is smiling and waving before getting the hell out of there.

In fact, maybe this is a Russian lesson to Erdogan, who seems to have forgotten that there’s a price to be paid for betrayal. Let Erdogan deal with the Anglo-Zionists on his own and see how they view his Neo-Ottoman dreams.

Meanwhile, a reminder from yesterday. It appears that Russia is busily reinforcing bases in Libya. Also, in the comments from yesterday:

Turkey and Russia are on opposite sides in Libya. You can see the breakdown:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_intervention_in_Libya_(2020%E2%80%93present)

The side supported by Russia controls the vast majority of Libyan oil reserves.

Another aspect that could arise is control of Lebanon and Lebanon's gas reserves in the eastern Med. There have been disputes in the past between Israel and Turkey in that regard.

That doesn’t mean that all is simple for Russia. The bases in Syria were very helpful halfway stops for flights to North Africa. So Russia has its own forms of leverage to fall back on in dealing with Erdogan. Including the fact that a much stronger Russia is winning the war in Ukraine. Dealing with a victorious Russia may not prove so easy.

Look for lots more chaos in Syria, with Turkey mired in the mix.