Seymour Hersh's Weird 'General To General' Negotiation Story
Yesterday noted investigative reporter Seymour Hersh came out with a new substack article. In it, Hersh advances the wildly implausible idea that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is being secretly negotiated by the two generals in charge of their respective country’s war efforts: Valery Gerasimov on the Russian side and Valery Zaluzhny on the Ukrainian side:
A potential peace is being negotiated in Ukraine by military leaders
To get a flavor for just how implausible this narrative is, consider this paragraph:
The driving force of those talks has not been Washington or Moscow, or Biden or Putin, but instead the two high-ranking generals who run the war, Valery Gerasimov of Russia and Valery Zaluzhny of Ukraine.
In other words, Hersh is asking readers to believe that these two generals have taken upon themselves the task, not of fighting and winning a war, but of negotiating a peace. And that behind the backs of their respective country’s elected leaders and political power structures (on Gerasimov’s Russian side, that would be the Russian Security Council). On its face, such shenanigans would be treasonous for either general.
Now, it’s true that this narrative comes at a time of open disarray and feuding within what Russia refers to as “the Kiev regime”—not even deigning to refer to the government of a country called Ukraine. It is also a time in which there is open and widespread speculation that the Zhou regime in DC is plotting the removal of Zelensky from Kiev, to be replaced by a new leadership team in which none other than Zaluzhny himself would be the real power. That, one presumes, is the meaning of the trip to Kiev by the de facto SecState of the US (officially Director, CIA), William Burns—a desperate attempt to get Zelensky back on board with the American program. Again, it’s no secret that the American Empire—faced with a growing debacle in Ukraine and the prospect of a humiliatingly decisive Russian victory in an American election year—is increasingly desperate to put a stop to the war by hook or by crook, before Ukraine is totally destroyed as a nation worth looting. From this perspective, it could make a bit of sense to suppose that Zaluzhny would put out feelers to the Russian side, if he had the American Empire at his back.
Nevertheless, Hersh’s narrative was widely dismissed by all sides of the opinion spectrum—Neocons as well as those backing a productive peace. Alexander Mercouris, today, rejected Hersh’s goofy claim that Gerasimov was telling Zaluzhny that Russia could accept Ukraine membership in NATO. Mercouris, correctly, stated that this was “all but incomprehensible.” I would delete the “all but.” Such a concession would be tantamount to Russia suddenly declaring its own defeat in a war that leading figures in the West are conceding that Russia has won. Putin would be signing off on his political—and conceivably personal—demise were he to accept such a ridiculous concept. The whole point of this costly war for Russia has been to thwart a Ukrainian accession to NATO.
Beyond that, Russia, having been lied to repeatedly (in Minsk and then in Istanbul) by Ukraine at the direction of the American Empire, has repeatedly stated that there would be no negotiating with intermediaries—only face to face negotiations with American officials. The US is being presented by Russia with the alternative: either perform yet another bugout for all the world to see, or reveal your guiding role and sit down to negotiate with us—again, for all the world to see. Which is precisely the humiliating set of choices that the Neocons are attempting to avoid.
In fact, yesterday in Skopje Russia’s world class foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (also a member of the Russian Security Council), shot down any notions that negotiations were ongoing. Back in 2017 Lavrov had stated that, in diplomacy, it takes two to tango but that, while Russia was prepared to tango, the US was breakdancing. Lavrov revived that metaphor in describing the current situation:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that it takes two people to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, like in tango, and Ukraine and its Western curators are breaking dancing.
Lavrov said this during a press conference following the meeting of the OSCE foreign ministers in Skopje.
The minister stressed that so far Russia has not seen on the part of Kiev and its "masters" a willingness to start a settlement of the conflict.
"In order to start a political process, you need two, just like in tango, but the guys on the other side dance not tango, but breakdance," Lavrov said.
In other words, Lavrov reiterated the Russian position that the “Kiev regime” is not a sovereign and independent actor—it is a puppet regime of the American Empire. Therefore, no true settlement can take place without direct talks between the two real parties in interest: Russia and America.
Now, yesterday in the comments to our post Big Serge On The Theory Of Modern War--With Examples, Hersh’s narrative was the hot topic of discussion. We all agreed that, as it stood, it was nonsensical. That led to the question: What were Hersh’s sources using him to put out in public? The general consensus was this. Given that the Neocons refuse to negotiate face to face with the Russians, Hersh was being used to let the Russian side know what terms the American Empire was willing to accept—and enforce on the Kiev Regime—in other words, the Hersh narrative represented an indirect negotiating gambit. There are two problems with that. The first is that the terms being offered—Ukraine’s entry to NATO—are a deal breaker from the get go. The second is that Russia is demanding an actual treaty, ratified by the US Senate. That was what Putin proposed before beginning his Special Military Operation and the success of Russia’s military campaign and defeat of the sanctions war will, no doubt, have only strengthened his resolve in that regard.
Simplicius the Thinker, in one of his trademark long posts, addresses some of these issues today. Firstly, Simplicius characterizes the core part of the narrative as “eye rolling”:
Firstly, many have understandably rolled their eyes at the claim that Russia is ready to give Ukraine the NATO allowance, or is content to simply walk away with Crimea and Donbass. But keep in mind, since this was relayed to Hersh through an alleged “American official,” it likely represents just the American side’s offers, not what the Russian side is necessarily actually willing to accept—but who knows.
But as we have seen, America may be making offers, but Russia is ignoring them. Simplicius goes on to rehearse several of the recent Russian rejections, which include direct statements that strongly indicate Russia’s intent to prosecute the war to its logical conclusion—the dissolution of the Ukrainian puppet state:
Let me add that there has been an increasing volume of voices from the Russian side pointing to the complete disavowal of any potential ceasefires. All the usuals like Medvedev and co. have been barking but there’s been a few interesting new additions. For instance, Russian deputy foreign minister Ryabkov said there’ll be no ceasefire in all of 2024:
Is that an indicator that Russia intends to put an end to the war in 2024? Maybe so:
Furthermore, Kherson governor Vladimir Saldo said he spoke with Putin directly who reassured him that all of Kherson would be retaken, and appeared to imply that Odessa and Nikolayev would as well.
Meanwhile, Putin’s assistant Surkov wrote a brief epistle with the following:
“Twilight on the Farm”: Vladislav Surkov, assistant to the President of Russia, wrote a column about how and why Ukraine will end.
“Belief in magic is part of Ukrainian political culture. Now Ukrainians are once again beginning to become disillusioned with their sorcerers. Twilight. Eve of darkness. There won't be a miracle. Many on Bankova secretly dream of Minsk-3. In vain. And there will be no Minsk-3.
Russia is no longer a mediator, patiently sorting out neighborly squabbles. Russia is now an impatient participant in the great struggle, which will take its toll. Understand, pagans. Next year will be a year of degradation and disorganization of the Ukrainian fake “state.”
Again we see the Russian refusal to recognize Ukraine as a legitimate “state” with which Russia could carry on negotiations for a settlement. There are also indications that Russia is preparing to go on the offensive militarily—not just in the limited ways we’ve seen so far:
dana @dana916
The Russian army has begun the formation of high-power artillery brigades, the main task of which will be to break into enemy defenses. The new units will be armed with large-caliber artillery.
The first high-power artillery brigade - 17th brigade - was formed as part of the 3rd Zaporozhye Army Corps. Several more similar artillery brigades will be formed in the near future in other army corps and armies in the special operation zone.
The brigades are armed with large-caliber artillery - self-propelled guns of 203 mm caliber 2S7 "Pion" and 2S7M "Malka", as well as heavy mortars 2S4 "Tulip" of 240 mm caliber. In addition, the brigades will include unmanned aircraft units to conduct reconnaissance and fire adjustments.
Sofa General Staff
It’s a time honored and tested Russian tactic:
In late 1944 Hitler dismissed the OKH’s warnings of a Soviet Vistula offensive because the intelligence on artillery pieces was too high to believe. He literally said “it can’t be true, they aren’t made out of artillery.” Then you see the pictures of the shock army, and…
Simplicius also gets at what’s really behind all this desperate breakdancing for a ceasefire:
This puts a potential ceasefire in a whole different perspective. Recall in a recent report that I wrote about how the reason U.S. cannot allow Russia to continue fighting is because it risks losing all of Ukraine in a total, decisive Russian victory over the embattled country.
This adds even more weight to this, as BlackRock, Dupont, Soros, and co., cannot allow their vast investment projects in Ukraine to completely fall into Russia’s hands. That means for these megacorp powerhouses, a ceasefire that preserves their holdings is of paramount importance.
As I continually say, we in America have the best government money can buy. To understand what’s up, just ask: Who bought that government? Or, if you prefer: Follow the money. Don’t accept the gaslighting about Ukro-Nazi “democracy.” These megacorps have been promised the inside track on “rebuilding”—looting—Ukraine after the cessation of hostilities. No doubt in return for campaign funding. They will now be pressuring the feckless GOP to pass the $60 billion aid to Ukraine package, in the vain hope that by continuing to fund warfare in Ukraine, Russia can be induced to declare its own defeat. Putin will have the last word, and you can get a good idea of what that word will be by relistening to this video that I featured yesterday:
I don't think Hersh's article was any kind of signal to Russia. Russia has said, repeatedly, ad nauseam, that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO, that it will only negotiate a peace treaty with the US Government and it will only sign a treaty ratified by the US Senate. There is absolutely no reason to doubt their position.
Far more likely is that the unidentified senior US government official who Hersh purports to have spoken to is sending a message to the ever-gullible US electorate. The message being: Don't worry. This war will end. See: the generals are talking now so never mind the politicians. This means you can safely vote for Joe (or whoever the Party nominates) because peace is at hand, Russia has been stopped and not a single American soldier has died... and, by the way, Joe has brought the price of gasoline down from $5.00 to $3.50. See what a great President he is?
Never mind that gas was $2.20 when he was elected. Never mind that he is and always has been a grifting, sleazeball influence-peddler who is the greatest embarrassment to the American political system in our lifetimes. The gaslighting of the American voter is just beginning and will reach epic crescendo proportions by November 2024.
As that preeminent political philosopher, realist, and observer of the American Empire, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, has frequently noted: If it doesn't make any sense, assume it is for the consumption of the American voter. Or words to that effect.
Well, I’m still trying to figure out what’s up with Hersh on this one? Does he not recall that the last military operative that went rogue on Putin met with an unfortunate aircraft malfunction? If you just look at how things have played out up to this point, I can’t see how you could possibly accept the idea that two military officers are conducting negotiations on the down low. Just not buying It.