Tomorrow will be a very busy day for me, so I’ll get a head start. The big debate about the Hamas attack on Israel has been whether Israel (and the US) were truly taken by surprise or whether some nefarious scheme by the Deep States of one or both countries allowed it to happen—in order to justify wider war. Scott Ritter today makes what to me is a clinching case that the Hamas attack succeeded because of a true intel failure. However, before we get to that I’m going to embed a 23 minute Youtube of Judge Nap interviewing Ray McGovern (who gives a big h/t to Ritter). McGovern provides a short version of what went wrong in a fairly lucid way:
Extremely interesting conversation between Bret Weinstein and Efrat Fenigson, a former IDF intelligence officer who served on the Gaza border 25 years ago. The convo provides some important background to what has happened, including the complexity of the Israeli-Palestinian relationship (for lack of better word). But more importantly, they discuss the anomalous (suspicious?) circumstances associated with the recent invasion by Hamas, for example comparing it to events like 9/11 and Pearl Harbor.
If this was a failure of technology then the timing was rather convenient, occurring as it did while a youth festival was taking place on Gaza's border. I have to wonder what they were thinking, holding this festival in such a volatile area and without armed guards.
My guess is that they will find out that that's not the case--going forward. Israel itself is a deeply divided society. Those driving these events don't care whether or not Israel is isolated, but that will be the likely result of these events.
AI is designed around operating assumptions and how those assumptions inter-operate with the algorithms in place. Probability/statistics are introduced to provide feasibility assessments as a result. Indicators e.g. number of cell phone pings given a specific device by location etc. are examples derived.
AI can be deceived as evident by Ritter's analysis. AI is designed/developed based on how the designer views various scenarios and potential outcomes. Many times they miss because they haven't necessary thought through all these scenarios/outcomes. That's when assumptions take over and drive the review of the findings/analysis.
Probably not as mature as one would expect in Geo-Thermal Nuclear War or similar.
I didn’t see the question Qui Bono addressed sufficiently. I my humble opinion is the benefits accrue to the people in power. Netanyahu benefits by distractions from corruption charges and potential hero status for solving the Gaza quagmire as he now has the “moral imperative’ to use overwhelming force. The US powers benefit by being able to walk away from Ukraine while saving face. The vax zealots in Gaza and Israel are off the hook.
Who loses? Average citizens of Israel and the US. Hamas has no way to benefit, this is suicide for them. Intel agencies benefit with more power and funding (Israel’s 911)? Let’s see how many of these intel failures result in punishment for those in the intel community (spoiler alert: ZERO)
Is it an 'intel failure' if the Intelligence Apparatus is warned of a likely attack in advance and the warning is 'ignored'? Or is it a different kind of 'failure'?
On the intel subject, see the video Mark posted w Judge Nap and Ray McGovern. Very informative. RM even mentions Sullivan’s recent pronouncements and says he (Sull) is responsible for the breakdown of intel gathering at State - no expert, but perhaps reducing the human element in favor of more machines…link here!
This is part of the fog of war at this point. Of course, Egypt may have reasons for this claim--it may be true, it may not be true, it may be somewhere in between. If true, the question becomes, Why was it ignored, how detailed was the information (vague from accounts, but nevertheless called for alert)? Nefarious conspiracy? These things have been known--FDR Pearl Harbor is just one example. Hubristic dismissal of something that contradicts our wishes, expectations is also a real thing. These are all ongoing questions. So, too, is the issue of whether Israel relied on EW that was hacked.
Do you really believe AI was responsible for the positive outcome in 2021? Count me as a skeptic of AI as nothing more than a disinformation tool. It's "artificial" intelligence and the question I have is who programs the parameters for the AI to sniff out patterns? AI is another shiny new object with nefarious intentions by those who like to oppress others. I don't see it as a tool for good in any shape or form.
The entire term AI is an in buzzword, I don’t even remember being used a year ago.
My guess is the Israeli’s has some Pattern recognition software that identified targets, that allowed airstrikes to be called in. Same thing the west is doing in Ukraine with their advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capability. Feeds being drone video, electronic intercepts, etc.
If the Israeli’s can identify it, they can destroy it.
Hamas / Iran figured out how to escape detection by Israel’s isr capability.
My guess is a combination of tunnels, and using offline methods for key communications.
Ukraine and Russia are also adapting to the issue of concentrations of forces can and will be destroyed.
The excuse ít was AI' is bogus. What will they think of next to create the idea that their 'failure' is plausible? I don't buy it. That's not to say they aren't fallible (no system is), but not to this degree.
My guess is Hamas kept their regular activities going, and had their expeditionary forces ready to be deployed in minutes with key communications done via non electronic means.
Training was somehow done cut off from electronic surveillance. My guess with vr goggles isolated from any networks. Or in large warehouses not subject to surveillance.
When do they turn to God? They need SI - Supernatural Intelligence - to lead them. And they also need God's wisdom, mercy, compassion, righteousness, justice, and grace to guide all their actions. Just as we do.
There’s been a documented on going hack of Israel’s defenses since last March. Degradation, by network infiltrators, of the entire Israeli Defense and Intelligence system. Patrick Byrne covered it pretty thoroughly and it’s beyond disgusting the reasons a country’s people were subjected to terrorists was on behalf of a fetishist group’s trans agenda.
Thanks. This is the new face of warfare. It was clear from the start that Iron Dome wasn't working as planned--the question was why. We did report here very early on claims that Hamas had been able to disable much of the Israeli EW system guarding the border, allowing fighters to freely breach the barriers. I also saw a report that early today Iron Dome was, again, pretty much down.
Extremely interesting conversation between Bret Weinstein and Efrat Fenigson, a former IDF intelligence officer who served on the Gaza border 25 years ago. The convo provides some important background to what has happened, including the complexity of the Israeli-Palestinian relationship (for lack of better word). But more importantly, they discuss the anomalous (suspicious?) circumstances associated with the recent invasion by Hamas, for example comparing it to events like 9/11 and Pearl Harbor.
https://youtu.be/F_IAH7PnS_E?si=NuLtpf2Sw6Np3FLZ
Some additional insight about these two people: it turns out they met previously at a gathering of “covid dissidents” as Bret puts it.
If this was a failure of technology then the timing was rather convenient, occurring as it did while a youth festival was taking place on Gaza's border. I have to wonder what they were thinking, holding this festival in such a volatile area and without armed guards.
The Israelis thought they'd "frozen" the Palestinian problem just like the neocons thought they'd "frozen" the Ukraine conflict.
My guess is that they will find out that that's not the case--going forward. Israel itself is a deeply divided society. Those driving these events don't care whether or not Israel is isolated, but that will be the likely result of these events.
Mark, as long as Lindsey! and his sponsors get what they want.
AI is designed around operating assumptions and how those assumptions inter-operate with the algorithms in place. Probability/statistics are introduced to provide feasibility assessments as a result. Indicators e.g. number of cell phone pings given a specific device by location etc. are examples derived.
AI can be deceived as evident by Ritter's analysis. AI is designed/developed based on how the designer views various scenarios and potential outcomes. Many times they miss because they haven't necessary thought through all these scenarios/outcomes. That's when assumptions take over and drive the review of the findings/analysis.
Probably not as mature as one would expect in Geo-Thermal Nuclear War or similar.
I didn’t see the question Qui Bono addressed sufficiently. I my humble opinion is the benefits accrue to the people in power. Netanyahu benefits by distractions from corruption charges and potential hero status for solving the Gaza quagmire as he now has the “moral imperative’ to use overwhelming force. The US powers benefit by being able to walk away from Ukraine while saving face. The vax zealots in Gaza and Israel are off the hook.
Who loses? Average citizens of Israel and the US. Hamas has no way to benefit, this is suicide for them. Intel agencies benefit with more power and funding (Israel’s 911)? Let’s see how many of these intel failures result in punishment for those in the intel community (spoiler alert: ZERO)
IMO, those are largely short term considerations. The longer term is nowhere near clear.
Is it an 'intel failure' if the Intelligence Apparatus is warned of a likely attack in advance and the warning is 'ignored'? Or is it a different kind of 'failure'?
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/10/egypt-claims-it-warned-israel-of-upcoming-attack.html#comments
Depends on who "ignored" the warning. AI or human?
On the intel subject, see the video Mark posted w Judge Nap and Ray McGovern. Very informative. RM even mentions Sullivan’s recent pronouncements and says he (Sull) is responsible for the breakdown of intel gathering at State - no expert, but perhaps reducing the human element in favor of more machines…link here!
https://www.youtube.com/live/imDkS1SZLG0?si=PqSOo_OthfAyH1E8
and it seems that in general the West is afflicted with a woeful lack of discernment -
This is part of the fog of war at this point. Of course, Egypt may have reasons for this claim--it may be true, it may not be true, it may be somewhere in between. If true, the question becomes, Why was it ignored, how detailed was the information (vague from accounts, but nevertheless called for alert)? Nefarious conspiracy? These things have been known--FDR Pearl Harbor is just one example. Hubristic dismissal of something that contradicts our wishes, expectations is also a real thing. These are all ongoing questions. So, too, is the issue of whether Israel relied on EW that was hacked.
Scott Ritter per his article had an antagonistic relationship with the cia.
Why is it any enemy of the us deepstate ends up with some type of sex accusation / charges? Probably just coincidence… https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-13089135
Yet Epstein’s visitors / guests have mostly been protected.
Funny, that.
Basically Israel was very successful in 2021 fighting Hamas due to AI, and bragged about it.
Hamas and Iran analyzed the 2021 conflict and adapted/developed a strategy and methods to counter the success of Israel.
Israel added intentions to their analysis, which is subject to politics / disinformation.
“ while neglecting intentions, resulting in over-cautious conclusions.”
Do you really believe AI was responsible for the positive outcome in 2021? Count me as a skeptic of AI as nothing more than a disinformation tool. It's "artificial" intelligence and the question I have is who programs the parameters for the AI to sniff out patterns? AI is another shiny new object with nefarious intentions by those who like to oppress others. I don't see it as a tool for good in any shape or form.
AI was totally responsible, Kat: Amazing Incompetence.
The entire term AI is an in buzzword, I don’t even remember being used a year ago.
My guess is the Israeli’s has some Pattern recognition software that identified targets, that allowed airstrikes to be called in. Same thing the west is doing in Ukraine with their advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capability. Feeds being drone video, electronic intercepts, etc.
If the Israeli’s can identify it, they can destroy it.
Hamas / Iran figured out how to escape detection by Israel’s isr capability.
My guess is a combination of tunnels, and using offline methods for key communications.
Ukraine and Russia are also adapting to the issue of concentrations of forces can and will be destroyed.
The excuse ít was AI' is bogus. What will they think of next to create the idea that their 'failure' is plausible? I don't buy it. That's not to say they aren't fallible (no system is), but not to this degree.
"By way of deception thou shalt make war."
AI is faster garbage in, garbage out.
My guess is Hamas kept their regular activities going, and had their expeditionary forces ready to be deployed in minutes with key communications done via non electronic means.
Training was somehow done cut off from electronic surveillance. My guess with vr goggles isolated from any networks. Or in large warehouses not subject to surveillance.
I don't assume training was done in Gaza. I think for example paraglider training had to be done elsewhere.
Ha, the contrarian role in Israeli intelligence was very well articulated for the masses in World War Z (hence, Jerusalem's zombie wall).
When do they turn to God? They need SI - Supernatural Intelligence - to lead them. And they also need God's wisdom, mercy, compassion, righteousness, justice, and grace to guide all their actions. Just as we do.
There’s been a documented on going hack of Israel’s defenses since last March. Degradation, by network infiltrators, of the entire Israeli Defense and Intelligence system. Patrick Byrne covered it pretty thoroughly and it’s beyond disgusting the reasons a country’s people were subjected to terrorists was on behalf of a fetishist group’s trans agenda.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1711440905943572918.html
Thanks. This is the new face of warfare. It was clear from the start that Iron Dome wasn't working as planned--the question was why. We did report here very early on claims that Hamas had been able to disable much of the Israeli EW system guarding the border, allowing fighters to freely breach the barriers. I also saw a report that early today Iron Dome was, again, pretty much down.
Hamas has the backing of Iran for their hacking / electronic warfare.
This will happen after all our military diversity hiring is complete and their DEI certifications achieved.
The West is not set up for a war of attrition, but for short high intensity wars of the Fulda Gap era, and later counter insurgency.
The equipment is also designed for that.
Col Macgregor commented and we just make more of the same old stuff, if it’s even in production.
Ukraine has shown the deficiencies of the us weapons. The us has a broken weapon development system.
Yeah that "war of attrition" material was left over in Afghanistan.
H, even if we are prepared, how can we afford it? We're in a debt spiral now.