Today’s Moon of Alabama featured a three part article, the middle part of which will be our focus. That middle section will be familiar to some readers but, for those readers unfamiliar with the concept of counter-battery fire, Moon’s piece is highly informative. Since the war in Ukraine has for months been largely an artillery duel—utilizing howitzers, rocket/missile artillery, and mortars—it’s important to understand the tactics involved to get a feel for what’s developing.
That MoA was very informative. I am still wary of battle casualty stats from both sides, but there seems little doubt that the Russian artillery is playing a key role. Anyone who does doubt that should look at some photos of Bakhmut. What is crystal clear is that the US and West have fallen drastically behind in battlefield technology. We seem to have fallen for the over-priced prestige projects like aircraft carriers and F35s rather than the real stuff that wins battles. Now I just hope that Mr Putin gets the job done in the Ukraine asap before the neocons do something even stupider.
"Here, Moon makes an assertion which I’m not certain of."
I'm fairly certain that it's not true. There's been some discussion of Russian EW over on the Strategypage D List. I can't send that to you because it's behind a paywall., but a lot of the people involved are former military. Russian claims of EW success are being taken with a couple of boxes of Morton's. Part of the reason for that is that when jammers jam, they do so by sending out a jamming signal, and that signal can be located. Depending on the relative EW capabilities involved, a jammer that goes active may have only minutes to live. Jammers can also be targeted by home on jam weapons.
My opinion, with all due respect, is that the Ukrainians are likely capable of rolling their own home on jam weapons and if they aren't, and Russian jamming were anything near as effective as claimed, we'd be supplying them with home on jam weapons made in the USA. So while the Russians have and use jammers, and have doubtless had some success with them, I'm going to call their claimed success extraordinary. To quote Carl Sagan, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
Russia's biggest artillery advantage may be munitions supply. They are buying from North Korea, the Norks have their factories running three shifts, and delivery is by Trans Siberian Railroad. Payment is in oil, coal, and grain. Russia has provably increased its munitions production. We say that we are going to double ours this year, but given labor market and supply chain issues, I'll believe it when I see it. I saw a report that apparently we have told the Latvians that the Russians will start running out of ammunition early next year and the Latvians don't believe it. Frankly, neither do I.
We have purchased, I think, 100,000 rounds of 155mm from South Korea to partly replenish our reserve stocks. South Korea has stipulated that these are not to be shipped to Ukraine.
EDIT: We say we are going to double our production of artillery ammunition NEXT year, not this.
I've read repeated reports in outlets like NYT and WaPo quoting Ukrainian soldiers complaining that Russian drones are everywhere and that their own are getting jammed. I have also read numerous reports--not from former US military--to the effect that not only does Russia have the most advanced AD in the world, but their EW is also first class. For that reason I'm willing to lend credence to Moon--who has a background in the German military.
To be fair, the Russians are doing the same targeting of civilian populations. Not that either is morally or legally correct. Moon of A...pot calling the kettle....
Following this and your earlier post… from Geroman
FM Lavrov (Russia) says “the rules put forward by the West have never been approved by anyone.
In the US doctrinal documents, Russia is referred to as an immediate threat. That is not because we’re going to attack, but because we have challenged this world order.”
Good evening. TY, Mark. Trust Mrs W is recovering without too much difficulty. She probably does not want to hear "pain is weakness leaving the body."
PT... good for you, good for me.
I was looking at the Kiev weather 14-day forecast, (H/L in °F):
30 Dec. 41/32
31 Dec. 41/38
1 Jan 52/41
2 Jan 48/38
3 Jan. 46/37
4 Jan. 42/39
It is not until the 5th, that the temp drops to the high 20s overnight, daily highs are forecasted in the upper 30s through 12 Jan.
After the sub zero winter blast here (southern Michigan) last weekend, the 52° today is turning everything into a soggy mess. I'm guessing much of Ukraine is the same.
Ah, in fact we had the first therapy session since Christmas today. The therapist expressed surprise at how well she's doing for just four weeks after surgery. Naturally, she feels like it's a slow go, but she's plugging away and making gains every day.
If it's OK to say this, I told her I admired her bravery. We're in our early 70s and rehab from majory surgery (hip is much easier), especially the second one, isn't fun. Dogged determination.
But have all the NATO troops completed all their woke training and are they properly equitably proportioned with the correct pronouns? Scoot and shoot training can come later.
The central aim of the Russian SMO was to destroy the Ukrainian military. Every other aim leads off from this. I'd assume that under a very hard-headed guy like General Armageddon, they choose to do this because it kills a lot of Ukrainians. You are absolutely correct to say that we don't really know what goes on (and both sides are lying), but since Surovikin took over, the wasteful assault tactics have been stopped. We shall see!
That MoA was very informative. I am still wary of battle casualty stats from both sides, but there seems little doubt that the Russian artillery is playing a key role. Anyone who does doubt that should look at some photos of Bakhmut. What is crystal clear is that the US and West have fallen drastically behind in battlefield technology. We seem to have fallen for the over-priced prestige projects like aircraft carriers and F35s rather than the real stuff that wins battles. Now I just hope that Mr Putin gets the job done in the Ukraine asap before the neocons do something even stupider.
I found the following of interest. "The fatal weaknesses of the American M777 howitzer in Ukraine battlefield" https://www.defenceview.in/the-fatal-weaknesses-of-the-american-m777-howitzer-in-ukraine-battlefield/
"Here, Moon makes an assertion which I’m not certain of."
I'm fairly certain that it's not true. There's been some discussion of Russian EW over on the Strategypage D List. I can't send that to you because it's behind a paywall., but a lot of the people involved are former military. Russian claims of EW success are being taken with a couple of boxes of Morton's. Part of the reason for that is that when jammers jam, they do so by sending out a jamming signal, and that signal can be located. Depending on the relative EW capabilities involved, a jammer that goes active may have only minutes to live. Jammers can also be targeted by home on jam weapons.
My opinion, with all due respect, is that the Ukrainians are likely capable of rolling their own home on jam weapons and if they aren't, and Russian jamming were anything near as effective as claimed, we'd be supplying them with home on jam weapons made in the USA. So while the Russians have and use jammers, and have doubtless had some success with them, I'm going to call their claimed success extraordinary. To quote Carl Sagan, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
Russia's biggest artillery advantage may be munitions supply. They are buying from North Korea, the Norks have their factories running three shifts, and delivery is by Trans Siberian Railroad. Payment is in oil, coal, and grain. Russia has provably increased its munitions production. We say that we are going to double ours this year, but given labor market and supply chain issues, I'll believe it when I see it. I saw a report that apparently we have told the Latvians that the Russians will start running out of ammunition early next year and the Latvians don't believe it. Frankly, neither do I.
We have purchased, I think, 100,000 rounds of 155mm from South Korea to partly replenish our reserve stocks. South Korea has stipulated that these are not to be shipped to Ukraine.
EDIT: We say we are going to double our production of artillery ammunition NEXT year, not this.
I've read repeated reports in outlets like NYT and WaPo quoting Ukrainian soldiers complaining that Russian drones are everywhere and that their own are getting jammed. I have also read numerous reports--not from former US military--to the effect that not only does Russia have the most advanced AD in the world, but their EW is also first class. For that reason I'm willing to lend credence to Moon--who has a background in the German military.
Yep. If the government propaganda rags like the NYT and WaPo are posting bad news, you can bet that the penny is really dropping.
To be fair, the Russians are doing the same targeting of civilian populations. Not that either is morally or legally correct. Moon of A...pot calling the kettle....
Following this and your earlier post… from Geroman
FM Lavrov (Russia) says “the rules put forward by the West have never been approved by anyone.
In the US doctrinal documents, Russia is referred to as an immediate threat. That is not because we’re going to attack, but because we have challenged this world order.”
Good evening. TY, Mark. Trust Mrs W is recovering without too much difficulty. She probably does not want to hear "pain is weakness leaving the body."
PT... good for you, good for me.
I was looking at the Kiev weather 14-day forecast, (H/L in °F):
30 Dec. 41/32
31 Dec. 41/38
1 Jan 52/41
2 Jan 48/38
3 Jan. 46/37
4 Jan. 42/39
It is not until the 5th, that the temp drops to the high 20s overnight, daily highs are forecasted in the upper 30s through 12 Jan.
After the sub zero winter blast here (southern Michigan) last weekend, the 52° today is turning everything into a soggy mess. I'm guessing much of Ukraine is the same.
HNY to all❗
Ah, in fact we had the first therapy session since Christmas today. The therapist expressed surprise at how well she's doing for just four weeks after surgery. Naturally, she feels like it's a slow go, but she's plugging away and making gains every day.
Your wife sounds like a great person, Mark! Glad it's going better.
If it's OK to say this, I told her I admired her bravery. We're in our early 70s and rehab from majory surgery (hip is much easier), especially the second one, isn't fun. Dogged determination.
But have all the NATO troops completed all their woke training and are they properly equitably proportioned with the correct pronouns? Scoot and shoot training can come later.
I think "twerk and jerk" has replaced "scoot and shoot" in our Woke Western militaries. The UK military is even worse!
🤣🤣🤣🤣
The central aim of the Russian SMO was to destroy the Ukrainian military. Every other aim leads off from this. I'd assume that under a very hard-headed guy like General Armageddon, they choose to do this because it kills a lot of Ukrainians. You are absolutely correct to say that we don't really know what goes on (and both sides are lying), but since Surovikin took over, the wasteful assault tactics have been stopped. We shall see!