Russia Roundup 11/17/24

The day to day Russian offensive push continues, but there are a few reasons why a roundup today makes sense.

We’ll start with Brian Berletic’s video:

US Options Narrow as Ukrainian Lines Continue Crumbling

Berletic always helpfully supplies a summary of his videos along with the sources he uses. A lot of this is self explanatory, but some comments are called for:

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for November 17, 2024;

- Ukraine continues losing territory at an increasing rate, with the salient west of Donetsk City continuing to expand including the city of Kurakhove, as well as advances into the urban areas of Toretsk near New York, Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut, and Kupiansk in eastern Kharkov;

The mention of Chasiv Yar is significant. It’s not that far from Bakhmut, but it’s a major fortress city that was (is?) a command center for the NATO advisers directing the Ukrainian defensive lines in the Donbass.

- While the West insists Russia is running out of time to press its advantages, all evidence suggests conditions in Ukraine will continue shifting in Russia's favor until the West either intervenes or comes to terms with Moscow;

- The incoming Trump adminstration claims it will "end" the conflict in Ukraine, but is in actuality is more face-saving than a policy shift all while pivoting to other US wars, proxy wars, and confrontations around the globe;

This is Berletic’s interpretation of Trump’s appointments of foaming at the mouth war hawks. Whatever my views on the qualifications of the appointees, I am of the view that Trump will not seek new proxy wars—and that the American professional military will oppose that. This will be a time for retrenchment—unless something crazy happens.

This next is very significant, and I’ll expand on it a bit below. The link is in the next section and much of the video is simply Berletic reading the article:

- Covert UK military operations revealed in leaked documents present a possible model the US will use to continue "extending Russia" in Ukraine even after it "withdraws;"

My speculation is that the US will not want to go down that road. Or, let me rephrase that. The CIA under current leadership may wish to, but the professional military will be leery of it. The US is overextended militarily, the Pentagon knows that, and will want to avoid falling into the trap of involvement in multiple theaters of war—even proxy or irregular wars. We shall see.

References:

CNN - Bad news mounts for Ukraine across the frontlines. But Russia is under pressure too (November 16, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/16/europe/ukraine-russia-war-frontlines-latest-intl/index.html
UK Ministry of Defense - Update on September 17, 2024:
https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1835960118921380228
Mediazona - Russian Losses in the war with Ukraine (Updated November 7, 2024):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16, 2024:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Grayzone - Leaks expose secret British military cell plotting to ‘keep Ukraine fighting’ (by Kit Klarenberg, Nov. 16, 2024):
https://thegrayzone.com/2024/11/16/uk-plot-keep-ukraine-fighting/
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html

The key to the Grayzone article is that the UK has been at the forefront of pushing for a continued “long war” against Russia. To lay the groundwork for that has meant heavy direct involvement in Ukraine, including setting up sabotage and terror networks to operate in Russia. This was all modelled along the lines of Operation Gladio. The UK—and presumably the US as well—has tried to camouflage this as the work of freelancers or mercenaries, but the reality is that this work has all been officially sponsored acts of war against Russia. Significantly, there was a domestic front to this plan, involving the suppression of dissent. Brief excerpts from The Grayzone—there’s a lot more:

Leaks expose secret British military cell plotting to ‘keep Ukraine fighting’

KIT KLARENBERG·NOVEMBER 16, 2024

Leaked files show top UK military figures conspired to carry out the Kerch bridge bombing, covertly train “Gladio”-style stay-behind forces in Ukraine, and groom the British public for a drop in living standards caused by the proxy war against Russia.

Emails and internal documents reviewed by The Grayzone reveal details of a cabal of British military and intelligence veterans which plotted to escalate and prolong the Ukraine proxy war “at all costs.” Convened under the direction of the British Ministry of Defense in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the cell referred to itself as Project Alchemy. As British leadership sabotaged peace talks between Kiev and Moscow, the cell put forward an array of plans “to keep Ukraine fighting” by imposing “strategic dilemmas, costs and frictions upon Russia.”

The leaks obtained by The Grayzone expose a hidden hand behind Britain’s policy in Ukraine, showing in unusually granular detail how it aimed to engineer a long, grinding war through covert operations that stretched the bounds of legality.

Project Alchemy’s proposed schemes spanned every conceivable field of warfare, from cyber attacks to “discreet operations” to outright terrorism. The secret cell even put forward a plan to “aggressively pursue” and “dismantle” independent media outlets – including The Grayzone – through an aggressive campaign of legal harassment and online censorship, so they “would be forced to close.” The incendiary blueprints were fed to the highest levels of the British state and national security structure, where they were apparently well-received.

Founded by a senior British Ministry of Defence official, Project Alchemy is composed of veteran military and intelligence operatives united by a desire for all-out war between the West and Russia. Some have trained Ukrainian forces in clandestine sabotage tactics.

Members of the national security cabal tacitly acknowledged that their proposed operations stretched the bounds of British law. Thus they suggested that London should be “prepared to creatively use the law” to meet its goals, and even be willing to erase “legal restrictions on UK deniable ops” against Russia.

…

Another move Alchemy proposed was to deploy Britain’s “strong” private military [PMC] industry “to out Wagner, Wagner.” In other words, the group aimed to establish a British rival to the Russian mercenary force founded by the now-deceased commander Yevgeny Prigozhin. This objective required the formulation of “a new doctrine, operating concept, and legal framework, for effectively integrating the activities of PMCs and other [non-military] actors.” Under these guidelines, British mercenary firms capable of using “sophisticated weaponry like SAMS, cyber, combat air, drones” would be employed to “operate and train and accompany Ukraine formations.”

These operations were all intended to ultimately be “sponsored and commanded” by the UK government, “using discreet cover” to avoid triggering NATO’s Article 5.

Here in the US we desperately need an accounting on three major fronts:

• The Russia Hoax,

• The Covid Hoax, and

• the War on Russia via Ukraine.

Are we seeing signs of something like this during Trump’s transition?

Now, a really big story coming out is that the Ruling Class is about to try to ignite a huge escalation against Russia—probably aimed at Trump as much as at Putin. Sundance quotes the WaPo:

WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use a powerful American long-range weapon for limited strikes inside Russia in response to North Korea’s deployment of thousands of troops to aid Moscow’s war effort, according to two senior U.S. officials.

The easing of restrictions on allowing Kyiv to use the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, to hit targets inside Russia is a significant reversal in U.S. policy and comes as some 10,000 elite North Korean troops have been sent to Kursk, a region of Russia along Ukraine’s northern border, to help Moscow’s forces retake territory gained by Ukraine.

The Biden administration fears that more North Korean special forces units could follow in support of this effort.

The move precedes by two months the return to the White House of President-elect Donald Trump, who has signaled he intends to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, though without offering details of how he will do so.  (read more)

Sundance comments:

If long-range missiles were used by Ukraine, they originate from the U.S-NATO and they are deployed with the targeting of U.S-NATO. Vladimir Putin clearly stated that if such weapons were used, Russia will not pretend or ignore that this is direct provocative engagement by NATO against Russia. Knowing this, the people around Joe Biden have just deployed exactly what Putin warned about.

RT has a pertinent article:

Pentagon advises US Congress to abide by key nuclear arms control treaty

…

“The United States will abide by the central limits of the New START Treaty for the duration of the Treaty as long as it assesses that Russia continues to do so,” the document says. It notes, however, that any future “arrangements with Russia, for example, will need to account for U.S. deterrence requirements and other strategic threats globally.”

Last month, the US signaled its readiness to engage in nuclear talks with Russia without any preconditions. However, Moscow dismissed this as a pre-election ruse, insisting that the issue be addressed in the broader context of the overall security landscape.

In other words, Putin is sticking to his guns, er, missiles, as outlined in the draft treaties Russia presented back in December 2021, in which Russia demanded the negotiation of a new “security architecture” for Europe. Please read this next paragraph carefully, because it appears to apply directly to the US action:

In September, President Vladimir Putin proposed updating Russia’s nuclear doctrine to consider “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state,” as warranting a nuclear response.

Last February, Putin announced the suspension of Moscow’s participation in the New START Treaty. He cited intelligence suggesting that the US is developing new types of nuclear warheads, as well as Washington’s stated goal of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia in the Ukraine conflict.

In early October, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that any potential arms control agreements between Russia and the US would need to include nuclear infrastructure in Europe and other elements of strategic security. “We think that insisting on conducting such negotiations while pretending that nothing happened would at the very least be imprudent,” Peskov said.

Regardless, the Russian offensive continues to pick up steam:

Russia Hits Ukraine Energy Sites With 120 Missiles, 90 Drones In Large Sunday Attack

Ukraine's national energy operator has announced significant power cuts for the Kyiv region and well as others areas in the east. This is after another major missile and drone assault on Ukraine's energy infrastructure coming from Russia, estimated at about 120 missiles and some 90 drones.

The massive combined air attack marked one of the largest of the war thus far, and killed and wounded several people. It appears to be in response to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian military and naval sites and oil depots.

…

I highly recommend the entire post that is excerpted below. The RFK Jr. video at the link is only 3:53 long and is very concise. Taken together, follow the money explains why the Ruling Class is authorizing the use of ATACMS in a desperate move to try to save the plan to loot Ukraine:

Who Really Profits From The Ukraine War?

Sunday, Nov 17, 2024 - 08:20 AM

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

Few people understand what the war in Ukraine means for big business - namely, opportunity. It’s not just the weapons and reconstruction contracts. Ukraine’s vast agricultural lands - among the most fertile in the world - are up for grabs, and American companies like BlackRock are at the front of the line. RFK Jr. Deftly and clearly explains.

JP Morgan and BlackRock — From Financiers of Destruction to Half-Trillion Dollar ‘Heroes’ of Reconstruction – The Hypocrisy of Reconstruction of Ukraine by the Same Corporations that Profited from the War

JP Morgan and BlackRock, along with consultancy McKinsey & Company, are collaborating with the Ukrainian government to establish a reconstruction fund. The objective of this fund is to attract significant investments for the country’s reconstruction, which could cost between $400 billion and $1 trillion, depending on estimates. This fund, known as the Fund for the Development of Ukraine, will use a “blended finance” approach to mobilize both public and private capital, targeting priority sectors such as infrastructure, climate and agriculture.

BlackRock and JP Morgan offered their services pro bono to manage this fund, leveraging their expertise in financial markets and debt management. The intention is that this fund can begin to operate fully once the war ends, although planning is already underway and has been discussed at recent international conferences.

The recent partnership between JP Morgan, BlackRock and McKinsey & Company to rebuild Ukraine highlights the bitter irony of the current geopolitical situation. In a deal that aims to raise hundreds of billions of dollars for the reconstruction of war-torn Ukraine, these American financial giants now position themselves as the economic saviors of a country whose destruction, in part, was facilitated by policies and actions in financial markets that they themselves dominated and shaped.

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They know that if Russia wins all bets are off. They’re willing to risk America’s future. Well, the future of the collective West. Another Banker’s War.