Russia, Iran, Israel, US--A Dialog

Before I get to the dialog, I want to recommend two Judge Nap videos, both of which follow on well from yesterday’s post. The first features Chas Freeman: Will Israel Attack Iran w/o the US? The interesting part about this video is that the two spend quite a bit of time discussing the effects on US politics of the savage and sadistic Israeli assault on Arabs. The feeling is that the American public is starting to digest this, and the result is that both the Dem brand and the Jewish and Israeli brands are, well, being rebranded. This is where the position of POTUS really does matter. No matter the despicable support of GOPers and Dems alike for Israeli genocide, it’s the Dem brand that’s taking the big hit. We saw yesterday the attempt by Blinken and Austin to distance the US from what we’ve enabled for the past year—obviously with the coming election in mind. The Judge cites Pelosi, too, yesterday, also attempting to create some distance from Netanyahu:

I don't know if Netanyahu wants peace. I don't know if he's capable of peace. I don't know if he's afraid of peace, but he has gone off the course [the Two State solution] that we all thought we were on.

You can take all that with a grain of salt. Pelosi has been part of the Gang of Eight for many years. She gets serious briefings. She knows what’s going on. She also understands politics—she knows Israel and the quest for Jewish Supremacy is becoming a disaster for her party.

The next video is a terrific interview with Doug Macgregor. I’ve assembled a summary of some of the main points from the 36 minute video, because they feed into the dialog I’ll present below. He starts with some brief remarks about the lost war in Ukraine, then moves on to the Middlle East.

Can Israel Survive Netanyahu?

The Kursk incursion is just about over. Most of the people involved--including Poles, Americans, and Brits in Ukrainian uniform--are virtually all dead. Russians in Kursk and up and down the line of contact are mopping up. The Europeans want this to be over. They're waiting for someone in the Imperial City on the Potomac to stand up and acknowledge that we've lost the war on this front. Trump's strength is growing based on hope around the world that Trump will pull the plug on Ukraine.

There's real fear and concern at the top of the Israeli leadership. They know that Hezbollah and Iran know where everything in Israel is--no secrets are left--and they've demonstrated several times now that they can hit those targets regardless of US - Israeli "missile defense".

If you don't want Iran to "get the bomb", then you shouldn't have been doing what you have been doing for years, which is threatening and bullying Iran.

The IDF has failed in all their objectives. Stalemate is defeat for Israel.

This is the last ditch for Israel. Netanyahu doesn't have many good cards to play. There are thousands of US soldiers and sailors sitting on ships around the whole region. We can't keep them there forever. The US Navy is literally cannibalizing itself to continue to operate with some measure of effectiveness. Our missile inventories are low. This is part of the reason that THAAD was deployed to Israel--not really for the missiles, which would be quickly exhausted—but for the X-Band radar, which is perhaps the crown jewel of our defense capabilities. It's unmatched, one of the best things we've ever produced. It will be the top Iranian target.

The problem, of course, is that the X-Band can only detect incoming missiles—it can’t shoot them down. It probably detected the incoming Iranian hypersonics that took it out on October 1, requiring a new system to be sent.

Mac maintains that Iran's ability to level Israel means that it doesn't make sense for Israel to hold back. But he also doubts that Israel can prevent a massive Iranian counter strike. That’s part of what makes this so scary.

Will Trump give Netanyahu anything N. demands? Mac wouldn't count on that. Nor is he sure that the 100 soldiers manning THAAD will be a "tripwire" for full US involvement, as Netanyahu certainly hopes. The days of the US beating up on weak opponents are over. The US can't afford to get into a war with Iran, which carries the potential of a direct confrontation with Russia. Russia has thousands of personnel, including pilots, inside Iran. Netanyahu wants all out war with Iran. The US doesn't. We've already lost the war in Ukraine, it's just that nobody wants to say so. We've lost, our equipment has failed, everything we've done has failed. Nobody in the WH wants to relive that experience in the Middle East. And yet it's looking inevitable.

Objective observers are questioning whether Israel can survive, in a region where they've treated their neighbors like animals. The public mood in Israel, on the other hand, is replete with arrogance and Israelis appear to be oblivious to that possibility. Further, at the start Israel made clear--and has doubled down since then--that non-Jews are Amalek, sub-humans, with no right to even exist. How, then, can Israel back down? Who will talk to them? Can the US intercede? NO! Our position in the region has been destroyed.

"Remember the word 'Amalek'. If you characterize your opponent as something less than human, it makes it much easier to kill the opponent. I'm afraid that Mr. Netanyahu and his friends in the cabinet have tried to turn this into what it's effectively become, which is a ruthless war of extermination against not just the people of Gaza but all of their enemies in the region, and they feel strongly that they have every right to dispose of them and they will use whatever means are necessary--including us. And we are seen as their [Israel’s] obedient servants. It's that simple. You don't need a more sophisticated assessment than that."

Now here’s the dialog, which is between Will Schryver and a name that’s new to me: James Jos. Kroeger. If you recall yesterday’s post, Empire Of Hate, you’ll see that some of what Kroeger says mirrors Michael Hudson’s views. I’m not advocating for a viewpoint here. I’m presenting this because, whether or not you agree with Kroeger—like Schryver I’m mixed—his tweets present issues that have almost certainly been the subject of intense study and debate in NatSec circles.

Will Schryver @imetatronink

I still see many people yearning for the Iranians to launch a decisive preemptive strike against the Israelis.

I do not believe they will do that, and I think it would be a very bad decision if they did.

·

Megatron @Megatron_ron 

NEW:

Biden is confident that Iran will retaliate against Israel - CNN

U.S officials said they are preparing for a possible retaliatory strike by Iran after the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.

They are working with Israel on a defense strategy

·

James Jos. Kroeger @JamesKroeger5

So Biden feels emboldened by Israel's successful assassination of Nasrullah? He's now willing to 'defend Israel' by embracing a hot war with Iran?

I wonder what the Joint Chiefs at the Pentagon will have to say about that idea? Will we see another Pentagon Intervention like we did over Blinken's escalation plans in Ukraine?

The Pentagon knows the US cannot 'regime change' Iran without using nukes & that option is a straight-out invitation to The Abrupt Ending Of America's Empire. Our generals will not approve that kind of mission

They'll ask Biden, what's really at stake that justifies taking the risk of bringing about the end of our country's civilization? Israel?

The only time America's political class should ever contemplate the use of nuclear weapons is when a powerful rival state has established a military presence on or near our borders & is daring us to stop them

(Like what America did in Ukraine vs Russia)

The end of the existence of Israel should be a price that every member of America's political class should be willing to accept if it'll prevent the possibility of America being destroyed in a nuclear holocaust

Understand that using nukes on Iran will not prevent the destruction of Israel but could only be an impulsive act of revenge to punish Iran for ruining Joe's & Bibi's plans

So you want to invite the nuclear annihilation of America for the sole purpose of punishing a country that never threatened America in any way, Joe?

That's the very definition of insanity, a horrifying type of insanity that could bring us all to our doom...

Never did I think I'd find myself welcoming a military coup in America, but we seem to be moving in that direction. That's how corrupted our political class has become, thanks to Israel...

6:05 AM · Sep 30, 2024

·

James Jos. Kroeger @JamesKroeger5

Assuming you're talking about the Samson Option target list, they'd definitely strike at the enemy that defeated them, Iran, and maybe Russia for enabling it first...

But I have serious doubts that the Samson Option will actually be executed as the IDF is going down in flames. Why?

Because even the most ardent Zionist commander is not going to want to push the button before he's absolutely certain that Israel is facing an unacceptable defeat

You don't want to act prematurely on such a fateful decision & if the US is in their ears saying they can stop the destruction before the IDF is totally obliterated, it might be enough to make even a true Death Cultist hesitate to implement the Samson Option until it's too late

All Israeli Zionists understand that all of the Samson Option's value has been in its ability to deter attacks. Acting like you're the crazy man who will "destroy everything" has yielded real deterrence benefits

But when that moment of truth arrives, and you realize that your nation gambled & lost, simply accepting defeat will begin to look like a rather attractive option compared to choosing to make your last act on this earth one of unforgiveable evil. And to what end? To make a statement to the world?

Zionists are typically performers, not suicidal crazies

So the key question for Israel will be when to push the Samson Option button? If Russia is committed to stopping this act of ultimate evil as I expect, they'll have thought about this a lot

My guess is, when Iran's & Resistance's ballistic missile attack is reaching a crescendo & the IDF is scrambling to defend itself from them, that's the time to use hypersonic or Avangard missiles on surface locations where nukes are kept & for their subs to take out Israel's subs with nuclear tipped torpedoes. All Israeli F-35's will also be targeted by Russia, operating out of Syria

How could Russia not have put together such a plan when they know that Israel is waving its nukes at humanity & threatening the ultimate act of madness?

Russia is the one nation-aside from the USA-that has the military capability to disarm the nuclear terrorists who control Israel. I can't imagine them shying away from what they'll necessarily see as a sacred obligation to use its unique abilities to protect humanity from the greatest Terrorist Threat the world has ever faced...

5:00 PM · Sep 30, 2024

·

James Jos. Kroeger @JamesKroeger5

A really big deal...

It pretty much leaves no doubt that Russia has joined The Resistance alongside Iran, Hezbollah, Yemen, Iraq, Syria & Hamas

The Genocide in Gaza, on top of America making itself an existential threat to Russia since 2022, has turned Russia into a full partner in The Resistance which seeks to defend Iran from its enemies: Israel & the US

Evidence: Russia's determined efforts in recent weeks to feverishly upgrade Iran's Air Defense to Russian standards, the best in the world

But the gravity of this most recent move suggests that Putin wants to provide the Pentagon with some additional incentive to put a halt to any US participation an all-out war between Israel vs Iran

The Pentagon has consistently opposed an all-out war between the US & Iran because they don't like being set up for failure. The generals know full well that the US cannot 'regime change' Iran without using nukes, & if they do that, America will lose anyway. And all for what? Israel's right to terrorize?

Don't look for Russia to send troops to Lebanon to fight Zionists on the ground. Russia's role in this drama will be to provide its satellite eyes & intelligence network, Russia's version of GPS, electronic warfare upgrades, certain high-tech weaponry, S-400's to defend its base in Syria & shoot down Israeli jets, and its submarines (to target Israel's nuke-carrying subs)

From Russia's POV, the US is trying to destroy the Russian state though its proxies, the CIA, & NATO. In response, Russia is now committed to helping Iran to defeat Israel + US because it's defending itself from the Hegemonic power that wants to destroy Russia

If The Resistance, with Russia's help, is able to destroy Israel's Air Force on the ground-an achievable goal-it will protect Iran & Hezbollah & Hamas & Yemen from Zionist terror bombings, a truly defensive move that seeks only to disarm a terrorist state

Also, if the IDF's Air Force is destroyed, Turkiye absolutely will send its army into "Israel" to be the liberator of The Palestinians from Zionist terror, since the one thing Erdogan has feared the most about intervening is Israel's Air Force. (Turkiye's exit from NATO will probably happen on the same day)

The end of Israel will be a massive defeat for the United States & it will definitely enhance Russia's security. It will be the final ultimate humiliation of a hegemonic superpower who completely destroyed its reputation around the world by its support for Israel's Genocide

It will be the dawning of a new day...

5:08 PM · Oct 3, 2024

·

Will Schryver @imetatronink

These are some interesting thoughts. I agree with several paragraphs.

But I adamantly disagree with several others.

I believe Iran/Russia would be wiser to assume a defensive posture against US/Israeli air power; to accept some losses for the opportunity to inflict severe losses on the airframes deployed — especially the support platforms.

If Iranian/Russian air defenses can defeat just 50% of the incoming missiles (e.g. ~250 out of ~500, which, based on Ukraine, is a very conservative expectation), I am convinced the results of the remaining 250 would be much less damaging than most people expect.

And if they can inflict even a modest 10% kill rate on the aircraft involved (e.g. ~20 out of ~200),

And if they sank or severely damaged just 2 missile destroyers and (quite conceivably) a US Ohio-class missile submarine ...

Well, I think it would be viewed within the Pentagon, and in the eyes of billions of people worldwide as a stunning disaster for the empire.

Then would be the time for a powerful Iranian counterstrike — but primarily focused on the US bases in the region.

It would become a strategic masterstroke.

Quintili Vare, legiones redde!

At any rate, these are my views on the matter.

4:54 PM · Oct 4, 2024

·

Will Schryver @imetatronink

I explicitly wrote "Iran/Russia".

Iran already had potent air defenses that have now been meaningfully strengthened by top-shelf Russian systems.

Iran and Russia have concluded a mutual defense pact.

And Russia can definitely track and target an Ohio-class submarine.

5:40 PM · Oct 4, 2024

·

Will Schryver @imetatronink

I don't believe Russia will seek to preemptively strike Israeli nuclear capabilities.

Nor do I believe Israel will attack Russia.

The Netanyahu regime is desperate, but I don't believe national suicide is on the menu. There would be a coup d'etat in Israel to prevent it.

6:04 PM · Oct 4, 2024

·

James Jos. Kroeger @JamesKroeger5

With all respect, how can Russian have not anticipated a conceivable scenario where successive rounds of escalation finally end up in an all-out war between Israel & Iran?

Contingency planning for such a possibility would seem to be a no-brainer.

The question isn't "will it happen" but "is Russia likely to have developed a plan vs the Samson Option just in case everything starts to go to hell?"

6:19 PM · Oct 4, 2024

·