Russia has responded at the highest levels to Lithuania’s unilateral abrogation of the treaty governing goods transport—through the territory of Lithuania—between the Russian Federation and its Kaliningrad Oblast (which is surrounded by Poland and Lithuania). Reuters has the details of the Russian response:
LONDON (Reuters) - Russia warned NATO member Lithuania on Monday that unless the transit of goods to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea was swiftly restored then Moscow would take undisclosed measures to defend its national interests.
With east-west relations at a half-century low over Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Vilnius banned the transit of goods sanctioned by the European Union through Lithuanian territory to and from the exclave, citing EU sanction rules.
Russia's foreign ministry summoned Lithuania's top envoy in Moscow to deliver a protest while the Kremlin said the situation was beyond serious.
"The situation is more than serious," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "This decision is really unprecedented. It's a violation of everything."
Russia's foreign ministry demanded Vilnius reverse what it cast as an "openly hostile" move immediately.
"If cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation via Lithuania is not fully restored in the near future, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests," it said.
Lithuania’s claim that it’s simply complying with EU sanctions rules appears to be totally disingenuous on several levels.
First, and most obviously, the EU was not a party to the treaty governing the transportation of goods through Lithuania between the Kaliningrad Oblast and the main territory of the Russian Federation. You can find that treaty here. The special situation of transport between the Russian Federation and the Kaliningrad Oblast are dealt with in Annex II, on page 9/9.
Second, conceptually it doesn’t seem that the EU sanctions have anything to do with such transport of goods, since there is no question of export of Russian goods to the EU—this is simply the transport of goods from one part of the Russian Federation to another part. I’m not aware that the EU sanctions govern such situations.
Third, Article 20 of the treaty provides:
The Contracting Parties [specified as Russia and Lithuania] shall settle all contentious matters which may arise in connection with the interpretation or application of this Agreement through negotiations and consultations.
From this standpoint, Lithuania’s unilateral action appears to be totally illegal. Since, as noted above, the EU is not a party to this treaty, Lithuania’s appeal to the EU sanctions in interpreting the treaty—without negotiations or consultations with Russia—seems inadmissible. It appears to be simply a deliberate and illegal provocation.
Fourth, Article 24 does provide for the termination of the treaty by either party:
either Contracting Party may at any time terminate this Agreement after giving at least six months' written notice through the diplomatic channel.
Lithuania appears to have violated this part of the agreement quite arbitrarily.
Whether or not Russia chooses to supply the Kaliningrad Oblast by sea, this amounts to a direct interference with strictly Russian affairs—since Lithuania has made no claim that Russia has violated the treaty in any way.
Russia has had a few days to think this situation over, and appears to have decided to send a strong message that goes well beyond the usual diplomatic language:
Russia’s Baltic Fleet reportedly launches live-fire exercises in Kaliningrad Region
Russia’s Baltic Fleet has reportedly launched live-fire exercises in the Kaliningrad Region with an estimated 1,000 servicemen and over 100 units of military hardware taking part.
Russia’s Baltic Fleet has launched the alleged exercises following escalating tensions with Lithuania due to a blockade of Russian transit cargo.
…
The firing exercises will reportedly be carried out by artillerymen using “Grad and Uragan multiple rocket launchers, Hyacinth large-calibre guns, Msta-S, Acacia dn Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems.”
The news follows Russia threatening to revoke the recognition of Lithuania as an EU state due to the blockade in the Kaliningrad region, as stated by the Chairman of the Provisional Commission of the Federation Council on Protection of State Sovereignty and Prevention of Interference in Russia’s Internal Affairs, Senator Andrei Klimov, on Monday, June, 20.
Speaking on Russia’s threat to revoke recognition of Lithuania as an EU member state, the Senator stated:
“The European Union, if it does not immediately correct the insolent prank of Vilnius, will itself disavow for us the legitimacy of all documents on Lithuania’s membership in the EU and untie its hands to solve the Kaliningrad transit problem created by Lithuania by any means we choose.”
As we’ve previously noted, the military power—on land, sea, and in the air—that Russia has at its disposal in the Baltic area simply dwarfs that of all other countries combined. A direct attack on the functioning of Russia as a sovereign nation which has entered into a binding treaty with Lithuania seems wildly reckless. There is no reason to suppose that Russia doesn’t mean business.
I’ve cued up this video to start at the point that Alex Mercouris discussing the Lithuania situation. He goes on to discuss the increasingly untenable situation that the Western and EU countries find themselves in—the political debacles in one country after another, which only promise to deepen; the German plan to resort to coal now that they’ve largely shut down their nuclear plants, etc.
In the earlier portion of the video Mercouris discusses the latest Ukrainian efforts to cancel Russian culture. It’s all incredibly illiberal and retrograde, but in line with the new concept of an arbitrary an illiberal Rules-Based Order. A wanton trashing of Western civilization as we have known it for something like 2000 years or more.
Finally, there is some breaking news that suggests a change in the scale and tempo of the Russian offensive:
Isn’t the expected payback support owed to the Lithy’s by the USA under George Bush for their role in Iraq circa 2003?
The Biden Administration is on its way to becoming the first in American history to lose two wars in less than a year. They have decided that only intervention by NATO troops can save Kiev. (I still use the old style spelling and given the course of the war we might as well go back to using it.) Washington wants war with Russia. No one in America outside the Washington psycho ward wants this. So they need Russia to commit the first overt act.
One wonders what bribe the Lithuanians were offered that they deemed worth the risk.