My only comment is all those geniuses who decided we would transition from a manufacturing economy to a service economy, have proven to be morons? When “little computer Mikey Bloomberg” insulted everyone with his speech about the smart computer people industry transforming America, replacing those dumb dirty farmers and mechanics, during his presidential run, I realized the geniuses were doubling down. I’m willing to let the tariffs run their course. My 401k survived 1987, 2008 and Covid, so I’m not panicking, yet.
I've been hesitant to criticize the tariffs until I understood more what their effect may be. Here is an interesting article from Wolf Richter that basically states that they are a tax on corporate profits. As many know, companies outsourced their work overseas, and brought the finished products back to the US, making tons of money on the labor arbitrage.
I'm an amateur on economic matters but I don't think one can compare the economic situation now with the great depression, the interwar period in general, or the transition from an agrarian to a manufacturing society in the 19th century. All these periods were different and as Mark notes the considerations and projections are very complex.
What makes me uneasy is not the idea of the tariffs themselves. I think there is some logic there. But my unease is from 1) How quickly and massively they are being imposed into a global economy and pushing the reconfiguration of current supply chains resulting in increased costs; and 2) The fact that we have a vast shortage of skilled workers in the U.S. to support a revived manufacturing/industrial based economy at this point. There might be many companies who would be willing to move manufacturing facilities to the U.S. But where will they find the skilled workers? I saw a couple of articles today (wish I could remember the links) that discussed how the number of skilled workers retiring in the U.S. vs. their replacement hires in major industries is now 7:1, 10:1, or more. What happens when we can no longer import but we can't produce domestically either? Inflation.
One financial writer that I follow noted the conditions today are the reverse of the 1930s. In the 1930's, the US produced more than it consumed and domestic industry did not need protection from higher tariffs. Instead, tariffs should have been lowered so there would have been higher consumption of foreign goods. The movement in interest rates and exchange rates will have an impact on the cost of goods imported to the US. So, those are two things to watch as well.
You can't discuss the Great Depression and not consider the role of the Federal Reserve. Ben Bernanke admitted in 2002 that the Fed's tight monetary policy played a key role in the Great Depression. In the fall of 1929, the target rate was 6% with the inflation rate close to zero and that led to a contracting money supply. Then, in the fall of 1931, the Fed raised rates by 2%.
"""The process of transitioning back to making “stuff” again, in the current state of technology, seems to me to be potentially vastly more complicated"""
The one word no one in the government, not even Trump, will say is Union.
US cannot and will not ever compete in manufacturing so long as the Unions in the US exist in their current capacity. It is an impossibility.
One example Where I live, the Union benefit of Overtime. If a Union employee is called in for overtime - they get a Minimum - Minimum of Four (4) hours pay, even if the job takes 10 or 20 minutes or an hour.
Retirement then is effected - it has historically been the case that overtime Counts Toward retirement. So the Union employees in the last 2 years of service take as many and as much overtime as possible, so their retirement benefit is greater.
And Trump wants to make overtime tax free So I am really wondering if Trump even understands how overtime works and how he will make this tax free it would be insane. But that's another story.
You cannot manufacture competitively without a re-write of Union laws, which will never happen.
And ---->>> US will never ever produce weapons in competitive quantities and low expense, meaning Russia currently and probably will for the foreseeable future - produce weapons at 1/6 the cost and in 1/6 the time
On war, could the Loomer blow-up be a way for Trump to trim some of the Neocon bad advice he has been getting? Will Waltz now resign out of embarrassment?
Excellent summary as ever, Mark, and one which draws a lot on the past as prologue. Concerning, Iran, who knows what Trump's plan is? However, what is clear is that his targets are very likely to take him at face value and, as you clearly outline, take punitive action in one form or another. I find it inconceivable that the very hard-headed realists in Moscow and Beijing will do nothing in response to any aggression against Iran. They know all too clearly that if the US does bring down the Mullahs, they are next. Meanwhile, concerning tariffs and the return of manufacturing to the US, I think that ship has sailed. It is another of history's ironies that the same bunch of Harvard Boys and neo-liberalists who trashed Russia under Yeltsin came back home to do the same to American industry. Comparisons with the aftermath of WW1 are also spurious. Back then, the US was at the forefront of new technologies just as China is today. It's European competition was exhausted by the war and the assembly line and advent of the motor car industry gave them an unbeatable advantages, as did the vast new market of American consumers suddenly flush with disposable income for a whole range of new domestic goodies like radios and washing machines. That context is no longer here. Many Americans are struggling financially and there is no way US manufactured goods could compete with Chinese and other Asian ones, tariffs or not. I just hope for all our sakes that Trump sees sense and backs down. Maybe the tariffs on Israel show signs of some realism breaking in. Meanwhile, here in Switzerland, besides having excellent pen knives, we have a pretty good system of nuclear shelters to which I cordially invite you all if the occasion arises!
I don't see Trump authorizing bombing of Iran. It would be the death of him and the Republican party. He's not taking advice from anyone now. Perhaps soon we'll see some ship jumpers.
Three staffers on the National Security Council have been fired after journalist Laura Loomer met with President Trump [for 30 minutes] in the Oval Office on Wednesday, where she presented him with a list of 'disloyal' employees, the NY Times reports, thanks to ongoing (and copious) leaks from the administration.
PDJT has the authority to hire and fire staffers at will. We don't know what Loomer brought to his attention but ultimately he has the authority to make decisions on their continued employment. I hope we at some point will learn the details and his reasoning for the decisions but no guarantee there. That said, I believe it is better for him to get rid of problem people sooner rather than later, even if it shows that it was in retrospect a mistake to have hired them. But then we have Waltz...
My only comment is all those geniuses who decided we would transition from a manufacturing economy to a service economy, have proven to be morons? When “little computer Mikey Bloomberg” insulted everyone with his speech about the smart computer people industry transforming America, replacing those dumb dirty farmers and mechanics, during his presidential run, I realized the geniuses were doubling down. I’m willing to let the tariffs run their course. My 401k survived 1987, 2008 and Covid, so I’m not panicking, yet.
I've been hesitant to criticize the tariffs until I understood more what their effect may be. Here is an interesting article from Wolf Richter that basically states that they are a tax on corporate profits. As many know, companies outsourced their work overseas, and brought the finished products back to the US, making tons of money on the labor arbitrage.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/03/103178/
Tariffs are long overdue, and there will be some pain here. On War, there is zero chance Trump will bomb Iran.
I'm an amateur on economic matters but I don't think one can compare the economic situation now with the great depression, the interwar period in general, or the transition from an agrarian to a manufacturing society in the 19th century. All these periods were different and as Mark notes the considerations and projections are very complex.
What makes me uneasy is not the idea of the tariffs themselves. I think there is some logic there. But my unease is from 1) How quickly and massively they are being imposed into a global economy and pushing the reconfiguration of current supply chains resulting in increased costs; and 2) The fact that we have a vast shortage of skilled workers in the U.S. to support a revived manufacturing/industrial based economy at this point. There might be many companies who would be willing to move manufacturing facilities to the U.S. But where will they find the skilled workers? I saw a couple of articles today (wish I could remember the links) that discussed how the number of skilled workers retiring in the U.S. vs. their replacement hires in major industries is now 7:1, 10:1, or more. What happens when we can no longer import but we can't produce domestically either? Inflation.
RE: Trump bombing Yemen and Courting Saud in Mara Lago
Just read a report ( not certain of accuracy ) Trump courting / golf saudis in Mara Lago
Could be Good Reason Trump bomb Yemen - a Saudi Dream after they had to give up a few years ago
Trump Bomb Yemen = in return for Saud look the other way on Gaza genocide and
Saud promise increase of oil in case Trump bomb Iran
well maybe a bit conspiracy theorist - will Saud sell out Iran and Gaza maybe
One financial writer that I follow noted the conditions today are the reverse of the 1930s. In the 1930's, the US produced more than it consumed and domestic industry did not need protection from higher tariffs. Instead, tariffs should have been lowered so there would have been higher consumption of foreign goods. The movement in interest rates and exchange rates will have an impact on the cost of goods imported to the US. So, those are two things to watch as well.
You can't discuss the Great Depression and not consider the role of the Federal Reserve. Ben Bernanke admitted in 2002 that the Fed's tight monetary policy played a key role in the Great Depression. In the fall of 1929, the target rate was 6% with the inflation rate close to zero and that led to a contracting money supply. Then, in the fall of 1931, the Fed raised rates by 2%.
https://www.econlib.org/yes-monetary-policy-did-cause-the-great-depression/
"""The process of transitioning back to making “stuff” again, in the current state of technology, seems to me to be potentially vastly more complicated"""
The one word no one in the government, not even Trump, will say is Union.
US cannot and will not ever compete in manufacturing so long as the Unions in the US exist in their current capacity. It is an impossibility.
One example Where I live, the Union benefit of Overtime. If a Union employee is called in for overtime - they get a Minimum - Minimum of Four (4) hours pay, even if the job takes 10 or 20 minutes or an hour.
Retirement then is effected - it has historically been the case that overtime Counts Toward retirement. So the Union employees in the last 2 years of service take as many and as much overtime as possible, so their retirement benefit is greater.
And Trump wants to make overtime tax free So I am really wondering if Trump even understands how overtime works and how he will make this tax free it would be insane. But that's another story.
You cannot manufacture competitively without a re-write of Union laws, which will never happen.
And ---->>> US will never ever produce weapons in competitive quantities and low expense, meaning Russia currently and probably will for the foreseeable future - produce weapons at 1/6 the cost and in 1/6 the time
......
On tariffs, consider this view in historical context -
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/reciprocal-tariffs-are-not-enough/
On war, could the Loomer blow-up be a way for Trump to trim some of the Neocon bad advice he has been getting? Will Waltz now resign out of embarrassment?
Don't forget this recent info... https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/02/waltzs-team-set-up-at-least-20-signal-group-chats-for-crises-across-the-world-00266845
Don't people TALK to anyone any more? CHAT? How about using secure comms for these discussions?
I read somewhere that when countries are sanctioned, that it creates a money train that can’t be traced or tracked by usual means.
Goods are being laundered for things like oil, and rare earth minerals.
Excellent summary as ever, Mark, and one which draws a lot on the past as prologue. Concerning, Iran, who knows what Trump's plan is? However, what is clear is that his targets are very likely to take him at face value and, as you clearly outline, take punitive action in one form or another. I find it inconceivable that the very hard-headed realists in Moscow and Beijing will do nothing in response to any aggression against Iran. They know all too clearly that if the US does bring down the Mullahs, they are next. Meanwhile, concerning tariffs and the return of manufacturing to the US, I think that ship has sailed. It is another of history's ironies that the same bunch of Harvard Boys and neo-liberalists who trashed Russia under Yeltsin came back home to do the same to American industry. Comparisons with the aftermath of WW1 are also spurious. Back then, the US was at the forefront of new technologies just as China is today. It's European competition was exhausted by the war and the assembly line and advent of the motor car industry gave them an unbeatable advantages, as did the vast new market of American consumers suddenly flush with disposable income for a whole range of new domestic goodies like radios and washing machines. That context is no longer here. Many Americans are struggling financially and there is no way US manufactured goods could compete with Chinese and other Asian ones, tariffs or not. I just hope for all our sakes that Trump sees sense and backs down. Maybe the tariffs on Israel show signs of some realism breaking in. Meanwhile, here in Switzerland, besides having excellent pen knives, we have a pretty good system of nuclear shelters to which I cordially invite you all if the occasion arises!
I don't see Trump authorizing bombing of Iran. It would be the death of him and the Republican party. He's not taking advice from anyone now. Perhaps soon we'll see some ship jumpers.
I have no idea what Trump is thinking, but I notice that Diego Garcia is as close to Taiwan as it is to Iran.
Garland Nixon talking with Larry Johnson. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkHV0pe7vLk
Nixon: "News item: Russia fires back at Trump over illegal threats to Iran . . ."
Johnson: Iran war is NOT about nukes, it is about economics, the North-South Corridor. One of last clauses in Iran-Russia Agreements speaks of protection of INSTC, important to Russian commerce/transit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_North%E2%80%93South_Transport_Corridor
Who will Loomer appoint to replace these characters?
'Disloyal' NSC Staffers Fired After Laura Loomer Brings Receipts To The White House
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/disloyal-nsc-staffers-fired-after-laura-loomer-brings-receipts-white-house
Three staffers on the National Security Council have been fired after journalist Laura Loomer met with President Trump [for 30 minutes] in the Oval Office on Wednesday, where she presented him with a list of 'disloyal' employees, the NY Times reports, thanks to ongoing (and copious) leaks from the administration.
PDJT has the authority to hire and fire staffers at will. We don't know what Loomer brought to his attention but ultimately he has the authority to make decisions on their continued employment. I hope we at some point will learn the details and his reasoning for the decisions but no guarantee there. That said, I believe it is better for him to get rid of problem people sooner rather than later, even if it shows that it was in retrospect a mistake to have hired them. But then we have Waltz...
Well done, that lady! May it be the first of many!
What's her cabinet title going to be?
Testicular Enhancement Lady