Roundup: Russia, US FP Debacle, Polish Election

First Russia. Last night, apparently, Ukraine attempted a massive ATACMS strike on the Berdyansk Russian AF base. Yes, Ukraine now has ATACMS, although the least effective variant with the shortest range. The Berdyansk base is located near Kherson and is a major base for Russia’s highly effective Ka-52 ‘Alligator’ attack helicopters. Armchair Warlord has a fairly long tweet on this subject, in which he maintains that the attack was basically a failure that is a herald of deeper failures to come. It’s worth quoting in its entirety, because it leads to Putin’s response:

Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW

Turns out ATACMS was a bust, as expected.

This morning the Ukrainians launched a major strike on the Berdyansk airfield - a major base for Russian army aviation (read helicopters) - with their new ATACMS missiles and GL-SDB long-range glide bombs.

The results were unimpressive.

The airfield was hit somewhere between one and four times, with two helicopters destroyed and several damaged by shrapnel. If flight operations were suspended at all it was likely for less than thirty minutes, and most of the damaged aircraft have probably been repaired and returned to operations by now - shrapnel holes in helicopters at war are common enough and easily patched.

The Russians subsequently reported shooting down five ATACMS missiles and four GLSDBs, with the wreckage of at least one downed missile appearing online in the aftermath. I remind the audience that this is precisely what ATACMS was designed to do - destroy large, soft targets in the Soviet rear area beyond the range of conventional artillery and rocket systems - and it appears to have managed a 20-40% penetration rate in a mass salvo against air defenses that had never engaged this kind of bandit before, with the surviving missiles delivering an ineffective strike. This penetration rate is going to drop to 0-10% rapidly if Russian air defense performance thus far is any indication.

This is unsurprising - ATACMS is a first-generation quasi-ballistic missile and as such has some compromises regarding speed and altitude that, I suspect, make it rather vulnerable to missile defenses.

The Ukrainians tried to follow up this strike with attacks across the southern front, without significant success. Rybar reported some of their marines managed to get over the Dniper across from Kherson City and establish a small bridgehead, but no other outlet that does independent reporting has confirmed it and Rybar has published bad reports of Ukrainian advances lately - I suspect bad news helps their revenue from doomscrollers.

11:09 PM · Oct 17, 2023

Briefly regarding Rybar’s reporting and the Dnieper crossing by Ukrainian forces, it appears that, as usual, those forces were quickly brought under fire and destroyed. This is pretty routine activity to all appearances.

Now, Putin’s response to the appearance of ATACMS was significant. He stated that Russia would now be operating continuous Black Sea patrols of two Mi-31 jets, armed with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. From the Black Sea those Kinzhals will be able to reach any launch sites for ATACMS missiles very rapidly. Tied into this is something that Simplicius mentioned—almost, but not quite, in passing—the other day. Russia is starting to bring into service additional AWACS type aircraft (the A-50U). Simplicius has, in the past, identified the shortage of sufficient AWACS type aircraft to cover Russia’s vast air space as a significant weakness for Russia, and a reason why some of Ukraine’s missile strikes have been able to get through Russian air defenses. My assumption is that the MiGs will be teaming up with the A-50u’s to aggressively hunt down Ukrainian launch sites. As importantly, this development could make life increasingly more difficult for the Ukrainian forces as Russia upgrades its ISR capabilities with more A-50Us.

Elsewhere, the Russian counterattacks—not quite really to the level of counter offensives—continue. The most significant, according to Simplicius, is the move to surround the fortress city of Avdeyevka, which is the source of the almost continuous shelling of Donetsk city. By most accounts Avdeyevka has the most hardened fortifications of any city held by Ukraine, with virtually all of its critical assets protected underground. Like Mariupol and Bakhmet, this battle could last for months.

Regarding the debacle of US foreign policy—I should say, the continuing debacle—we covered that yesterday and this morning, so it may suffice to quote The Duran’s come on for their offerings today:

The Israel-Palestinian is turning into another foreign policy debacle for the Biden Administration, with Arab governments hardening their line, Jordan apparently calling off a summit meeting with Biden, and Israel struggling to find a workable military option. Meanwhile - as the hospital attack shows - the violence continues, and the conflict threatens to escalate.

…

Meanwhile Beijing has become the diplomatic centre, with world leaders (except from the West) gathering there.

There is of course also the election in Poland, and Jim Jordan's so far unsuccessful attempts to become House Speaker.

As The Duran suggests, Zhou’s travels to the Middle East turned into a shambles. The only country that welcomed him was Israel, and that hardly raises US standing in the region from its current whale sh*t level. Meanwhile, the hapless Blinken has been repeatedly snubbed by Middle East governments, who have adopted a common line: Israel has gone well beyond self defense. There needs to be a stop to the fighting. The US, instead, is reduced to vetoing efforts to stop the bloodshed, with nothing positive to offer. It’s a formula for deepening isolation—a process that began with America’s disastrous war on Russia in Ukraine.

Just briefly, with regard to Jim Jordan’s so far unsuccessful quest for the Speakership, Don Surber maintains today that Speakership is the fight we need. I basically agree, with reservations:

The details of insider politics fascinates reporters and editors but not me because the larger story matters. The real story is a group of insiders keeping outsiders out. Think of it as a NASCAR race in which the pit crew (RNC) does all it can to thwart the driver, who in this case is the voters.

Both parties have this problem of leadership working against their supporters because the isolation and power of Washington separates the wheat from the chaff and puts the chaff in charge.

Weirdly, Don doesn’t mention money. I mean, isn’t that what drives our politics? Shouldn’t Don be making a distinction between supporters and voters? Supporters would be those who provide the lion’s share of the money. And the role of the Speaker is overwhelmingly to cater to the supporters. So, shutting down the process—if that’s what the Speakership battle accomplishes—seems a basically good thing to me.

Finally, the Polish election is certainly the most consequential election in Europe so far this year. In it we see the spectacle of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, riding high with widespread popular support, threw it all away because key insiders were consumed with their personal hatred for Russia and Germany and willing to savage all past friends. They saw their government as an opportunity to somehow redress all historical wrongs against Poland.

The guys at The Duran knock this one totally out of the ballpark—this wasn’t so much a vote for the opposition under Donald Tusk (a total creature of the EU), whose party didn’t increase its share of the vote, as it was a vote of frustration over the direction in which PiS took Poland. The result is that I’m skeptical that the new government—which will include the Third Way, made up of agrarian/populist Christian Democrates, and much smaller groups of loony Leftists and unreconstructed Commies—will be able to claim a mandate for much of anything. I’ve embedded The Duran’s brief video for anyone interested. Kaczyński embraced the Ukraine/Neocon millstone, wrapped it around his neck and knotted it tightly, and jumped in over his head. Nuts.