Not much is clear in the Caucasus this morning, except that Armenian claims to the Nagorno-Karabakh region are ended. The Artsakh military has capitulated—it really had no other option. The Armenian government had, nearly a year ago, agreed that the region is within the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan—this was done to put Armenia in conformity with EU positions. The current Armenian government is seeking EU membership and has determinedly distanced itself from its erstwhile protector, Russia. Why Armenia’s ruling elite thinks any of this is a good idea at this point in history is anyone’s guess. The supposition is that the Armenian government is responding to the influence of the Armenian diaspora in the West, which exercises considerable influence.
Hacks all dependant on sources, who in turn use the hacks to get out their message...David Ignatius recent WaPo editorial telling Biden "it's over" get out while you can is good example. He's the CIA "Tattler".
To me, Hersch article is official conformation of misalignment/disagreement/all out war between CIA and Defense/State/neocon team. CIA sending signal re: Ukraine, we're done, don't blame us.
It's the combination of the Ignatius and Hersch items that tells the tale.
Agree on earlier comments about Kiev and early negotiations. Clearly stopped by idiot Neocon team who thought (mistakenly) they were holding a winning hand following Russia's initial bumbling. Big whoops which they're now paying for dearly.
According to Hersch's source, presumably CIA: “Putin did a stupid and self-destructive act in starting the war. He thought he had a magical power and that all that he wanted was going to work out...Russia’s initial attack was poorly planned, understaffed, and led to unnecessary losses."
I wonder and I doubt this. Putin doesn't have a crystal ball. As far as I can tell Russia's initial march on Kiev was not intended to conquer Ukraine. It was merely intended to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. Putin must have had some intelligence suggesting this tactic would succeed. And apparently it did! Russia and Ukraine apparently did negotiate a peace of some kind in March/April 2022.
So, if this is what Hersch's deep source is feeding him, that Putin was 'stupid' and 'self-destructive' and thought he had 'magical power', to me it undercuts the reliability of Hersch's whole story.
Another way of looking at it is that a big part of Hersch's audience is the Inside-the-Beltway Crowd, and in order to get them to even listen to you you have to posit up front that Putin is stupid (or worse, he is the next Hitler and a war criminal) and then maybe they will listen to the rest of what you have to say.
Beyond what you write, above--and which I agree with--it's been clear for quite a while that Hersch's source is CIA. That's fine, and I don't doubt that he has good access. However, we need to be careful about the overall narrative that we're seeing: CIA wears white hats, DIA wears black hats. This most recent article bears all the hallmarks of Inside the Intel Community blame pinning. I'm not contesting that many CIA analysts disagree with Neocon policy, but they're ultimately just desk jockeys who don't control policy--so for them it's a question of defending their institution from DIA. I would tend to share their assessment of DIA, but without putting much faith in CIA.
What goes unsaid in the article is that CIA has undoubtedly been deeply involved in the war on Russia. Beyond the mention of the Nordstream sabotage, recall, for example, that Director Burns--who had been expected to be a voice of intel sanity--has turned out to be anything but. Probably for reasons of personal ambition. Sane analysts at CIA or at DIA are simply inmates of the overall Deep State asylum. The people in charge are the Neocons, and they still have their hands on the levers of power.
Here's another example. Hersch's source wants us to believe that the Ukrainian military are incompetent. I don't believe that's true, and I don't believe many former professional military types do, either. The failures of the Ukrainian armed forces are heavily to be blamed on the control that the US exercises over them. We've read numerous reports that Zaluzhny has long disagreed with and resisted the idea of a massive offensive--that was *demanded* by the Neocons, largely for political rather than sound military reasons, and has been a catastrophe. Not that the Neocons give a rip about dead Ukies.
Addendum: Your mention of BJ nixing peace--undoubtedly at the insistence of the Neocons--is a good example of what I'm saying here about the supposed incompetence of the Ukrainian military. It appears that they were probably plenty competent enough to go along with the Istanbul peace plan. After all, we've heard nothing of a mutiny against that peace plan from within the Ukrainian government.
Agreed and agreed. The DIA/CIA tiff/spin is amusing...I find it hard to believe that sane analysts at both agencies don't see exactly (and even more clearly given their access to real time information) what Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, Brian Berletic, Alexander Mercouris, Ray McGovern, Moon, Simplicius, etc are seeing and reporting on the battlefield...and if they are seeing something different why don't they publicly refute it with facts...
Regarding Poland/Grain deal... Interesting how Duda gets "Nationalistic" during election season. Not sure I'm buying the US oversight of Poland's stance on all as I read. For example, threats to close the land bridge from Poland to Ukraine with military equipment et al. doesn't jive IMO with Zhou's willingness to continue to throw $$$ at Ukraine.
Regarding Armenia/Azer... I suspect Erdogan will play both sides of the fence as he often does milking both and proving unreliable even more so. I also suspect Nuland/Burns/Powell influence in Armenia. Saw a recent Soros photo with the President of Armenia too. US is looking to flank Russia.
Don't have a NYT subscription, but wow. What must it be like to sit in a lounge at Langley with your friends, while one of them texts the NYT liason to assemble a story using a "more cautious statement from a Ukrainian armed forces spokesperson"? I guess the thrill of writing the narrative must be... thrilling.
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously attributed the attack to 'Russian terrorists' approximately two hours after the market was hit, an assertion largely accepted by Western nations. The NYT, in its current report, quoted a more cautious statement from a Ukrainian armed forces spokesperson, who indicated that the matter was still under investigation and no further information could be provided. Furthermore, the warhead that detonated in Kostyantynivka does not match the missiles typically used by the system, as noted by the US newspaper."
Hold up, I checked the WSJ and it turns out Ukraine is using Ukrainian-made drones and missiles to dominate the Black Sea and reopen ports to resume grain shipments. Backed by comments provided by Our Guys at the US Naval War College rather than Those Losers at the US Army War College. A few F-16s et voila: the Black Sea is ours! I mean, Ukraine's! I mean, this is more exciting than college football; I hope nobody gets hurt.
It's very sad to see a nation like Armenia, which has suffered so much during its history, committing Ukrainian-style suicide. The Duran chaps seem to think that Armenia's President is showing more stupidity than cunning. They compared him to the Georgian leader in 2008 who also thought he was a great statesman until the Russians cleaned his clock. Meanwhile, the EU seems to exchanging Armenia for Poland as a pliable member state. Poland, like Hungary, has no lasting home in the EU, and by the time Armenia joins - if it ever does - the EU probably won't exist.
Honestly, I think they won him over. I don't think its too hard to be a globalist and a communist at the same time. At the end of the day, they're all authoritarian totalitarians...
There’s a conspiracy theory that Obama’s grandparents, mother and Obama himself were/are CIA assets. Search Obama with CIA for more details regarding this theory’s evidence.
The mom seemed pretty *hippy dippy* but of course that could be a cover. One has to always wonder what any American is doing abroad for a long period of time...She seemed to survive pretty well without obvious substantial means of support. Punahou School ain't cheap.
I wouldn't call that a conspiracy theory--it doesn't really allege a conspiracy. It's just a theory that has been advanced to explain certain aspects of the Obama past.
Tx Mark for your digging in the weeds of this most frought region and all of its unpronounceable names, conflicted histories and unquiet instability…just ripe for our meddling! The twitter thread referring to Ukraine as a drowning man potentially pulling Poland under is priceless- as you point out, that ain’t exactly what the spin has been out of DC La-La Land…
78% of Poles do not support aid to Ukraine - a survey by the Vedomosti radio station shows
(elections are coming - mood has changed...)
The Polish article features a top official at the MFA stating that he can't exclude the possibility that the policy of support for Ukraine could "soon" undergo "a significant change." The reason given is that the government needs public support ("support of Poles") for its policy.
The Poles are seeing the light. Elections…wonder when our “elected” senators and reps will vote to pull the plug on funding the butchery in Ukraine…and now Zhou wants 24B more? How long does the DState think it can carry on this sickening sharade? If even the Poles are saying enough is enough…
The current Armenian president came to power after a "protest" movement against the former President, who was pro-Russian. He also wants Armenia to join the EU and NATO. Ring any bells?
Yes. 5 0 0, 0 0 0 killed. Killed. As far as I'm concerned this is on Biden, Harris, Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland, Power, Austin, Milley, Schumer, McConnell, McCarthy and Jeffries.
Hacks all dependant on sources, who in turn use the hacks to get out their message...David Ignatius recent WaPo editorial telling Biden "it's over" get out while you can is good example. He's the CIA "Tattler".
To me, Hersch article is official conformation of misalignment/disagreement/all out war between CIA and Defense/State/neocon team. CIA sending signal re: Ukraine, we're done, don't blame us.
It's the combination of the Ignatius and Hersch items that tells the tale.
Agree on earlier comments about Kiev and early negotiations. Clearly stopped by idiot Neocon team who thought (mistakenly) they were holding a winning hand following Russia's initial bumbling. Big whoops which they're now paying for dearly.
Exactly.
Seymour Hersch's latest....You Can't Handle the Truth
https://open.substack.com/pub/seymourhersh/p/zelenskys-bad-moment?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=8sef0
@Mike
Beyond the paywall: https://archive.ph/SCfAX
One quibble.
According to Hersch's source, presumably CIA: “Putin did a stupid and self-destructive act in starting the war. He thought he had a magical power and that all that he wanted was going to work out...Russia’s initial attack was poorly planned, understaffed, and led to unnecessary losses."
I wonder and I doubt this. Putin doesn't have a crystal ball. As far as I can tell Russia's initial march on Kiev was not intended to conquer Ukraine. It was merely intended to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. Putin must have had some intelligence suggesting this tactic would succeed. And apparently it did! Russia and Ukraine apparently did negotiate a peace of some kind in March/April 2022.
Until the hapless Boris Johnson turned up in Kiev and persuaded Zelensky to abandon the peace talks and double down on war. https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/politics/the-war-could-have-ended-months-ago-but-the-west-didnt-want-it-to/
So, if this is what Hersch's deep source is feeding him, that Putin was 'stupid' and 'self-destructive' and thought he had 'magical power', to me it undercuts the reliability of Hersch's whole story.
Another way of looking at it is that a big part of Hersch's audience is the Inside-the-Beltway Crowd, and in order to get them to even listen to you you have to posit up front that Putin is stupid (or worse, he is the next Hitler and a war criminal) and then maybe they will listen to the rest of what you have to say.
Beyond what you write, above--and which I agree with--it's been clear for quite a while that Hersch's source is CIA. That's fine, and I don't doubt that he has good access. However, we need to be careful about the overall narrative that we're seeing: CIA wears white hats, DIA wears black hats. This most recent article bears all the hallmarks of Inside the Intel Community blame pinning. I'm not contesting that many CIA analysts disagree with Neocon policy, but they're ultimately just desk jockeys who don't control policy--so for them it's a question of defending their institution from DIA. I would tend to share their assessment of DIA, but without putting much faith in CIA.
What goes unsaid in the article is that CIA has undoubtedly been deeply involved in the war on Russia. Beyond the mention of the Nordstream sabotage, recall, for example, that Director Burns--who had been expected to be a voice of intel sanity--has turned out to be anything but. Probably for reasons of personal ambition. Sane analysts at CIA or at DIA are simply inmates of the overall Deep State asylum. The people in charge are the Neocons, and they still have their hands on the levers of power.
Here's another example. Hersch's source wants us to believe that the Ukrainian military are incompetent. I don't believe that's true, and I don't believe many former professional military types do, either. The failures of the Ukrainian armed forces are heavily to be blamed on the control that the US exercises over them. We've read numerous reports that Zaluzhny has long disagreed with and resisted the idea of a massive offensive--that was *demanded* by the Neocons, largely for political rather than sound military reasons, and has been a catastrophe. Not that the Neocons give a rip about dead Ukies.
Addendum: Your mention of BJ nixing peace--undoubtedly at the insistence of the Neocons--is a good example of what I'm saying here about the supposed incompetence of the Ukrainian military. It appears that they were probably plenty competent enough to go along with the Istanbul peace plan. After all, we've heard nothing of a mutiny against that peace plan from within the Ukrainian government.
Agreed and agreed. The DIA/CIA tiff/spin is amusing...I find it hard to believe that sane analysts at both agencies don't see exactly (and even more clearly given their access to real time information) what Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, Brian Berletic, Alexander Mercouris, Ray McGovern, Moon, Simplicius, etc are seeing and reporting on the battlefield...and if they are seeing something different why don't they publicly refute it with facts...
Come to think of it that’s 2 expensive jets lost in a week. One $80M in SC and one $53M in NY.
Let me help. Aaron Rodger’s was the NY Jet. C’mon man.
Regarding the Bee... was so glad you included this today. Was just mentioning this in another blog a couple of days ago whether they would "weigh in".
Regarding Poland/Grain deal... Interesting how Duda gets "Nationalistic" during election season. Not sure I'm buying the US oversight of Poland's stance on all as I read. For example, threats to close the land bridge from Poland to Ukraine with military equipment et al. doesn't jive IMO with Zhou's willingness to continue to throw $$$ at Ukraine.
Maybe this is why the focus has been shifting to the Black Sea???
Regarding Armenia/Azer... I suspect Erdogan will play both sides of the fence as he often does milking both and proving unreliable even more so. I also suspect Nuland/Burns/Powell influence in Armenia. Saw a recent Soros photo with the President of Armenia too. US is looking to flank Russia.
They’ve effed up Ukraine so on the next one!
Good BB headline about the F-35. It probably had the Weiner, Hillary and Hunter laptops onboard too.
Don't have a NYT subscription, but wow. What must it be like to sit in a lounge at Langley with your friends, while one of them texts the NYT liason to assemble a story using a "more cautious statement from a Ukrainian armed forces spokesperson"? I guess the thrill of writing the narrative must be... thrilling.
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously attributed the attack to 'Russian terrorists' approximately two hours after the market was hit, an assertion largely accepted by Western nations. The NYT, in its current report, quoted a more cautious statement from a Ukrainian armed forces spokesperson, who indicated that the matter was still under investigation and no further information could be provided. Furthermore, the warhead that detonated in Kostyantynivka does not match the missiles typically used by the system, as noted by the US newspaper."
NYT is following Simplicius now.
Thrilling…and probably rewarding, too…
When you've lost the NYT, you've really lost. Z is probably watching re-runs of Miami Vice to acclimatise himself to his new home.
You just made the soundtrack go off in my head!
Hold up, I checked the WSJ and it turns out Ukraine is using Ukrainian-made drones and missiles to dominate the Black Sea and reopen ports to resume grain shipments. Backed by comments provided by Our Guys at the US Naval War College rather than Those Losers at the US Army War College. A few F-16s et voila: the Black Sea is ours! I mean, Ukraine's! I mean, this is more exciting than college football; I hope nobody gets hurt.
Let’s go! Popcorn and Cherry Coke all around.
The WSJ is such a great GO-TO source. Like a broken clock only not as reliable. More like the old funny pages.
It's very sad to see a nation like Armenia, which has suffered so much during its history, committing Ukrainian-style suicide. The Duran chaps seem to think that Armenia's President is showing more stupidity than cunning. They compared him to the Georgian leader in 2008 who also thought he was a great statesman until the Russians cleaned his clock. Meanwhile, the EU seems to exchanging Armenia for Poland as a pliable member state. Poland, like Hungary, has no lasting home in the EU, and by the time Armenia joins - if it ever does - the EU probably won't exist.
Aren’t journalists and actors interchangeable?
Journalists and prostitutes certainly are. No offence to prostitutes.
I still wonder how Obama won over the Intel community and the NeoCons.
Honestly, I think they won him over. I don't think its too hard to be a globalist and a communist at the same time. At the end of the day, they're all authoritarian totalitarians...
There’s a conspiracy theory that Obama’s grandparents, mother and Obama himself were/are CIA assets. Search Obama with CIA for more details regarding this theory’s evidence.
The mom seemed pretty *hippy dippy* but of course that could be a cover. One has to always wonder what any American is doing abroad for a long period of time...She seemed to survive pretty well without obvious substantial means of support. Punahou School ain't cheap.
I wouldn't call that a conspiracy theory--it doesn't really allege a conspiracy. It's just a theory that has been advanced to explain certain aspects of the Obama past.
Hhhmmmm…
Tx Mark for your digging in the weeds of this most frought region and all of its unpronounceable names, conflicted histories and unquiet instability…just ripe for our meddling! The twitter thread referring to Ukraine as a drowning man potentially pulling Poland under is priceless- as you point out, that ain’t exactly what the spin has been out of DC La-La Land…
The Polish government is now openly stating that they won't be providing more weapons to Ukraine because their stocks are too depleted.
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1704577502784471473
78% of Poles do not support aid to Ukraine - a survey by the Vedomosti radio station shows
(elections are coming - mood has changed...)
The Polish article features a top official at the MFA stating that he can't exclude the possibility that the policy of support for Ukraine could "soon" undergo "a significant change." The reason given is that the government needs public support ("support of Poles") for its policy.
The Poles are seeing the light. Elections…wonder when our “elected” senators and reps will vote to pull the plug on funding the butchery in Ukraine…and now Zhou wants 24B more? How long does the DState think it can carry on this sickening sharade? If even the Poles are saying enough is enough…
We couldn't possibly be involved in domestic Armenian politics, could we?
And why would we want to destabilize Armenia's relationship with Russia?
Has anybody seen Barack's BFF, Samantha Power, in Yerevan?
She couldn't possibly be involved could she?
https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/jul-13-2023-administrator-samantha-power-meets-armenian-secretary-security-council-armen-grigoryan
The current Armenian president came to power after a "protest" movement against the former President, who was pro-Russian. He also wants Armenia to join the EU and NATO. Ring any bells?
Nope. No bells. Must be a coincidence…
Oh yes! But somehow I think (I hope) it’s a bit late in the day to be hawking cookies in Baku.
correction: Erevan, capital of Armenia!
Maybe the Banderites will just forgive him for trusting the US and screwing up? Isn't that what nice neo-Nazis always do?
The woodshed where they've stored the guillotine?
Yes. 5 0 0, 0 0 0 killed. Killed. As far as I'm concerned this is on Biden, Harris, Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland, Power, Austin, Milley, Schumer, McConnell, McCarthy and Jeffries.
I share that view
A few good men. He's one of them.
Josh Hawley, too?
Agreed.
Probably JD Vance, too...so w Paul, Johnson, Kennedy, Cruz, Hawley and Vance, that's six...who are we missing? Mike Lee? Tuberville?
Yes and yes.