Rounding Up Some News

Here I’ll try to round up a variety of stories that aren’t necessarily linked, although it mostly all works into the current crisis.

This morning Larry Johnson points to three news stories.

First, he makes a point about the Xi - Zelensky phone call that everyone has been talking about. In addition to noting the directness with which Xi spoke to Zelensky Johnson mentions the significance of the format for the phone call. He’s surely correct that the Chinese, so sensitive to diplomatic nuances, did not do this by inadvertance:

Xi did the conversation with a Russian translator. Got it? China supposedly could not find a single Chinese linguist who spoke Ukrainian. Are you buying that? I’m not. China, a nation skilled at diplomacy and the talent of sending powerful messages with subtle gestures, deliberately forced Zelensky to deal with Xi using the Russian language. While it is possible that the Chinese were just being kind to Zelensky, who is not a native Ukrainian speaker and his grasp of that language is awkward at best, it is more likely that China was reminding Ukraine that it is in a new partnership with Russia.

That’s a totally unsubtle message, and for a nation skilled at sending subtle message, that unsubtleness would have been very deliberatly chosen.

Next, Johson picks up on a blockbuster of a story. You can read the Reuters account here:

Hezbollah leader calls Iran-Saudi reconciliation 'good development'

Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed on Friday to re-establish relations after years of hostility, which had threatened stability in the Gulf and prompted frequent political disputes in Lebanon.

You read that right.

"This is a good development," said Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in a televised address … cautioned that the full implications of the step were not yet known but said Hezbollah was "happy".

"It's an important development, of course, and if it proceeds in its natural course it could open up horizons in the entire region, including in Lebanon," …

Yeah, I have no doubts whatsoever that Hezbollah was happy, nor do I doubt the accuracy of Nasrallah’s spot analysis: This will surely open up all sorts of developments in the region. Add that to the recent tit for tat Iranian seizure of a “Marshall Islands flagged oil tanker” in retaliation for the US seizure of a tanker full of Iranian crude headed to China. That’s right, the US seized a tanker full of oil headed to China and redirected it to the US. Because Rules-Based Order. Big changes going on in the Middle East, in North Africa, in South and East Asia, in Europe—call it The World.

Add to this two other brief items:

Arnaud Bertrand

@RnaudBertrand

"India is importing record amounts of Russian crude oil. [India] has simultaneously become Europe’s top fuel supplier."

Russian Oil Is Still Powering Europe’s Cars With Help of India

Russian oil is still powering Europe — just with the help of India.

11:36 PM · Apr 29, 2023

What I’ve read is that “Indian” fuel products go for something like 33% more in Europe than if they were purchased directly from Russia. Well played, Neocons and Globalists! Why would people who claim that they want to end “Russian agression” be funding Russia in this way? Easy: Because there’s not a thing they can do about it.

I also read this morning that Morocco—formerly a close collaborator with the US—is also buying Russian energy products. And reselling it to Spain.

The third item that Johnson points to is a recent interview with a Polish general—actually, the head of Poland’s General Staff—Rajmund Andrzejczak. Andrzejczak paints a picture of impending collapse for Ukraine that, if anything, goes beyond the warning flares being sent up from MSM outlets in the US and UK. He also, while playing up Poland’s supposed rearmament for the future, frankly admits that Poland is pretty much pushing on a string at this point:

“We simply do not have ammunition. The industry is not only not ready to supply equipment to Ukraine, but also cannot replenish our own reserves, which are rapidly melting,” he admitted.

Poland’s allies do not understand the seriousness of the situation and are “under illusions,” which is “surprising and even shocking,” he added.

You can read quite a bit more about Andrzejczak’s remarks at Andrew Korybko’s site:

Poland’s Top Military Official Shared Some Unpopular Truths About The NATO-Russian Proxy War

The Polish title simply means, “Unfortunately the situation doesn’t look good.” The idea that Poland will continue spending 4% of GDP over multiple years to supposedly become a regional military power is, IMO, delusional. The US is cruising for economic and, thus, financial and budgetary trouble that will have a negative impact on support for remote places like Poland—remote from the US both geographically and in the US consciousness. Poland, meanwhile, will have to deal with multiple millions of Ukrainians flooding across the border. Do not kid yourselves that Poles and Ukrainians like each other.

Many readers may have seen Prigozhin’s latest claims of Wagner facing imminent collapse at Bakhmut, due to catastrophic casualties and lack of ammunition. Will Schryver has a smart comment on that, followed by two additional tweets that should be very disquieting:

Will Schryver

@imetatronink

Make no mistake: the Russians *WANT* the AFU to launch an offensive. But they are increasingly concerned sane heads in the US/NATO/AFU are going to succeed in preventing it. View this sort of stuff through that lens. Also keep this in mind:

My brief commentary on the Wagner PMC/RF MoD tempest in a teapot: I am strongly inclined to believe it is Russian maskirovka designed to lure the AFU to pump more forces into the closing jaws of the Bakhmut cauldron. 1/

Show this thread

7:06 PM · Apr 29, 2023

Makes total sense to me. Everyone knows by now, as the Russians have acknowledged, that Priogozhin doesn’t actually run Wagner. He’s a mouthpiece.

Now, US military preparedness—or lack thereof:

Will Schryver

@imetatronink

Add in the "dark funding" and the Pentagon is easily burning through a trillion dollars every year.

And yet somehow they couldn't maintain high-intensity warfare for more than a few days on the water and just a few weeks on land.

America’s Looming Munitions Crisis

How to fill the missile gap.

9:19 PM · Mar 31, 2023

And:

Will Schryver

@imetatronink

Can you imagine the sort of chaos that would ensue if the US got itself involved in a bona fide high-intensity conflict against a competent adversary?

The Spectator Index

@spectatorindex

BREAKING: The US Army has decided to ground all helicopter pilots, except those on critical missions, for additional training after recent helicopter crashes.

9:33 AM · Apr 29, 2023

Further, Bonchie at Red State has an article about two US Army disciplinary cases.

Two High Profile Investigations Tell You All You Need to Know About What Is Wrong With the Army

Follow the link for the depressing—but totally unsurprising—details. Obviously the institutional culture of an outfit that’s run in that way didn’t get that way overnight, nor will it be put right overnight. Moreover, buried inside the article is this link that shows how it all fits together:

The Army is in crisis. Recruiting is in a death spiral (GAO Finds Military Has No Plan for Ongoing Recruiting Crisis, the Real Question Is Do They Care?), and I will bet that reenlistment rates will soon follow…if they aren’t already there.

Let’s round this out with a few more brief items. H/T to the reader who sent me a Tom Friedman interview (1998) with George Kennan (age 94 at the time): Foreign Affairs; Now a Word From X. It’s a depressing interview, because Kennan was depressed even at that point in the rise of Neoconism to dominance in the US. Friedman was looking for Kennan’s views on the Senate ratification of NATO expansion. Kennan had views. Excerpts:

''What bothers me is how superficial and ill informed the whole Senate debate was,'' added Mr. Kennan, who was present at the creation of NATO and whose anonymous 1947 article in the journal Foreign Affairs, signed ''X,'' defined America's cold-war containment policy for 40 years. ''I was particularly bothered by the references to Russia as a country dying to attack Western Europe. Don't people understand? Our differences in the cold war were with the Soviet Communist regime. And now we are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime.

''And Russia's democracy is as far advanced, if not farther, as any of these countries we've just signed up to defend from Russia,'' said Mr. Kennan, who joined the State Department in 1926 and was U.S. Ambassador to Moscow in 1952. ''It shows so little understanding of Russian history and Soviet history. Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are -- but this is just wrong.''

…

As he said goodbye to me on the phone, Mr. Kennan added just one more thing: ''This has been my life, and it pains me to see it so screwed up in the end.''

So here we are.

Next, for Next Civil War buffs, Simplicius has something on offer that’s a bit of a rarity in that genre—a genuinely thoughtful article:

On Secession and Civil War

Will there be breakup by 2030?

And finally, links to three videos that add up to a 2-hour discussion, but one which I found quite stimulating—more wide ranging and focused than the title would indicate:

THE WEST FALLS & THE EAST RISES - TOM LUONGO, ALEXANDER MERCOURIS + ALEX KRAINER

Part 1 - https://odysee.com/@cryptorich:e/the-west-falls-the-east-rises-tom:c…

Part 2 - https://odysee.com/@cryptorich:e/20230429:f4…

Part 3 - https://odysee.com/@cryptorich:e/talex-3:7…