The problem with sanctioning Russia is that you drive them to produce internally what they used to import, and more importantly, they have the means to do so, both in materials and expertise. A good example is jet engines for commercial aircraft. They're also starting to produce their own fine scale microchips and other electronic components that they previously imported.
What they can't produce themselves and can't get from outside they'll just do without. Not like Russians aren't used to that, both historically and in the recent past. Take Kiwi fruit for example. Nice, but who actually needs it? I never even saw one until I was in my 30s. So who is hurt more if Russians can't buy kiwi fruit? Them, or NZ? That applies to a lot of things which are nice to have, but that no one really needs, and a lot of that stuff is made in China.
A new card has been played recently that I've yet to see an in depth analysis of. Talking about Russia's relaxing of immigration rules specifically aimed at western 'dissidents' although the term is used fairly loosely. Basically, anyone who's fed up with the West is welcome, as long as they can support themselves.
The obvious motivation for this is to arrest the decline in their birthrate, which has been moving in the wrong direction for decades. A trend of large Christian families relocating has been in place for a few years now, so expect that to increase.
Two other aspects that seem to have been overlooked, which could be more significant, are 'brain drain' and 'capital flight.' People who decide to leave can obviously afford to do so and have skills they can put to good use in Russia. I expect a lot of small businesses will emerge as a result of this. My own case is an example. Back in 2018 we hatched a plan to move there. The pandemic and war got in the way of that, but Russia's immigration system at the time was no picnic either. In a nutshell, we have the resources to buy a home in our target city, Novorossiysk, and put a couple of trucks on the road hauling freight between there and Krasnodar. If I can come up with something like that I'm sure plenty of others can. The main issue right now is getting your capital out, subject of my current investigations.
So the people who leave will, on the whole, be highly motivated educated middle class, which does not bode well for the West, which can replace them easily enough, but not their skills and capital. That's a net negative, the consequences of which will only drive more educated middle class people to leave.
It bears mentioning that while Russia has loosened requirements for western immigration, they've put the brakes on the former Central Asian republics. Perhaps because of what they've seen in the EU and USA with uncontrolled migration? Whether those fears are well founded or not, I don't know enough to say. Obviously demographics are a major concern, and as a rule I suspect Russians are more welcoming of people who look like them and actually want to be there, as opposed to need to be there. Of course the best way to keep Central Asians at home is to invest heavily in their countries which creates employment. Maybe that's also part of the plan?
I don't think anybody who has seriously looked at the global monetary and trade situation thought that BRICS would supplant the reserve status of the Dollar immediately with some other currency and that the transactional mechanism of SWIFT would be immediately replaced. But I think competitiveness with the Dollar will happen soon because, ultimately, production and consumption will dictate the direction of capital flows and investments. And China and Russia can define their own terms and mechanisms for trade, eventually. I can't help but think that India is in the catbird's seat in many ways. They are a terminus for the north-south international corridor (INSTC) which is supported by many including Turkey and I doubt the U.S. or NATO or Israel can interfere with that short of a full war with Iran (which the City of London and its Dem surrogates might yet dictate should happen). India has a huge consumer market that dwarfs the U.S. and is ready-made for Chinese and SE Asia producers. Its banks and stock market have already done very well over the last couple of years. It is a terminus as well as an intermediate stop in the oil trade route between the Persian Gulf and SE Asia and China - this transit of oil is existential for China and so it will be maintained. Modi strikes me as being cunning and fully cognizant of India's position. He will not give in to the U.S. dictates if it will hurt his own economy. So I think Turkey, Iran, India, and China are better bets at this point than the U.S. and U.K. and Israel and Europe when it comes to the ME and South Asia (no particular time frame implied and all moral considerations aside but certainly not unimportant).
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/09/08/russia-secretly-manipulated-congress-00177644
Now the purchase of Alaska was politicians being manipulated by Russia...
The problem with sanctioning Russia is that you drive them to produce internally what they used to import, and more importantly, they have the means to do so, both in materials and expertise. A good example is jet engines for commercial aircraft. They're also starting to produce their own fine scale microchips and other electronic components that they previously imported.
What they can't produce themselves and can't get from outside they'll just do without. Not like Russians aren't used to that, both historically and in the recent past. Take Kiwi fruit for example. Nice, but who actually needs it? I never even saw one until I was in my 30s. So who is hurt more if Russians can't buy kiwi fruit? Them, or NZ? That applies to a lot of things which are nice to have, but that no one really needs, and a lot of that stuff is made in China.
A new card has been played recently that I've yet to see an in depth analysis of. Talking about Russia's relaxing of immigration rules specifically aimed at western 'dissidents' although the term is used fairly loosely. Basically, anyone who's fed up with the West is welcome, as long as they can support themselves.
The obvious motivation for this is to arrest the decline in their birthrate, which has been moving in the wrong direction for decades. A trend of large Christian families relocating has been in place for a few years now, so expect that to increase.
Two other aspects that seem to have been overlooked, which could be more significant, are 'brain drain' and 'capital flight.' People who decide to leave can obviously afford to do so and have skills they can put to good use in Russia. I expect a lot of small businesses will emerge as a result of this. My own case is an example. Back in 2018 we hatched a plan to move there. The pandemic and war got in the way of that, but Russia's immigration system at the time was no picnic either. In a nutshell, we have the resources to buy a home in our target city, Novorossiysk, and put a couple of trucks on the road hauling freight between there and Krasnodar. If I can come up with something like that I'm sure plenty of others can. The main issue right now is getting your capital out, subject of my current investigations.
So the people who leave will, on the whole, be highly motivated educated middle class, which does not bode well for the West, which can replace them easily enough, but not their skills and capital. That's a net negative, the consequences of which will only drive more educated middle class people to leave.
It bears mentioning that while Russia has loosened requirements for western immigration, they've put the brakes on the former Central Asian republics. Perhaps because of what they've seen in the EU and USA with uncontrolled migration? Whether those fears are well founded or not, I don't know enough to say. Obviously demographics are a major concern, and as a rule I suspect Russians are more welcoming of people who look like them and actually want to be there, as opposed to need to be there. Of course the best way to keep Central Asians at home is to invest heavily in their countries which creates employment. Maybe that's also part of the plan?
Great post! Thank you.
I don't think anybody who has seriously looked at the global monetary and trade situation thought that BRICS would supplant the reserve status of the Dollar immediately with some other currency and that the transactional mechanism of SWIFT would be immediately replaced. But I think competitiveness with the Dollar will happen soon because, ultimately, production and consumption will dictate the direction of capital flows and investments. And China and Russia can define their own terms and mechanisms for trade, eventually. I can't help but think that India is in the catbird's seat in many ways. They are a terminus for the north-south international corridor (INSTC) which is supported by many including Turkey and I doubt the U.S. or NATO or Israel can interfere with that short of a full war with Iran (which the City of London and its Dem surrogates might yet dictate should happen). India has a huge consumer market that dwarfs the U.S. and is ready-made for Chinese and SE Asia producers. Its banks and stock market have already done very well over the last couple of years. It is a terminus as well as an intermediate stop in the oil trade route between the Persian Gulf and SE Asia and China - this transit of oil is existential for China and so it will be maintained. Modi strikes me as being cunning and fully cognizant of India's position. He will not give in to the U.S. dictates if it will hurt his own economy. So I think Turkey, Iran, India, and China are better bets at this point than the U.S. and U.K. and Israel and Europe when it comes to the ME and South Asia (no particular time frame implied and all moral considerations aside but certainly not unimportant).
Thanks for the insights.
Wow! Tulsi is rocking: "A vote for Kama Sutra is a vote for Dick Cheney!" Perfect.
As long as it’s a vote AGAINST TRUMP, tout va bien. No logic, no reflection, just pure unadulterated hate.
Reminds me of your link to Caitlin Johnstone's article where she wrote: "Dick Cheney--one of the earth's most evil living beings."
Tulsi is a powerful asset to the Trump Train.