The Russian military has been gaining momentum for the past week. Today come reports of the occupation of Severodonetsk, a key forward defensive position for the Ukrainian military on the east bank of the Seversky Donets river. Whether there still remain clearing actions, the fall of Severodonetsk has been only a matter of time:
This is the most dangerous moment of all, where the Globalistas weigh whether to try some, last, desperate gamble to salvage a developing disaster that makes Afghanistan look like a rained out Girl Scout cookie sale.
I hope not. Taiwan just wants to be left alone. I don’t expect much to happen to the November Central Committee election? Will Xi get an unprecedented since Mao third term? How much longer can China endure Xi’s zero Covid delusions?
And Ukraine May be surprised China at the economic blow back, and Russian military issues. China is patient, and May decide they need to take certain actions to minimize their risk. Such as having party officials and family get rid of Western assets…
I do not think Taiwan gets a vote in the ChiCom politburo regarding the timing of an invasion.
There's a theory that political leaders will initiate military action prior to elections in order to benefit from the "rally around the flag, rally around the leader" sentiment.
Naah, that would never happen.
BTW, have you heard about the ChiCom ForMin Wang YI's currently underway excision through Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia? This is a must-read piece from Cleo Paskal in today's Sunday Guardian:
The (former CINCPAC Admiral) Davidson "window of concern" was now through 2027. But, I'll tell you this, Ray, these next five months, particularly around August, are of great concern.
~~~
For some background on the US Navy 's posture, VA-02 Rep Elaine Luria paints a bleak canvas:
Taiwans military is improving, the building of diesel subs is a game changer. As is longer range missiles.
Taiwan’s military had huge logistic / spare parts issues that made for low readiness. Horrible transition from draft. Plus a dysfunctional reserve system. And very strong gun control. I don’t know if this changed, but I doubt it.
Ukraine has been a wake up call for Taiwan, but Covid is a major focus. And lots of political issues on making their military effective, verses the current focus on large, prestige purchases, instead of nuts and bolts issues.
China has been very focused on making sure the us can’t repeat the Clinton era show of force of a couple of aircraft carriers groups. I see them as huge targets now, and the us Navy is more focused on climate change anyway.
I’m sure it’s a coincidence the us has an aircraft carrier group in the area.
Plus, Xi seems to be a disciple of the "win without firing a shot" school. Why invade Taiwan when he already has substantial control via financial influence?
Conversely, there is such a thing as windows of opportunity, and the current window is unique in the history of the world: a superpower intentionally self-destructing.
But before he can invade he has to calculate how much pain China can endure. He needs to unwind China's dollar reserves, which I think is somewhere north of two trillion. And he has to be willing or able to do without trade to the U.S.
If he can manage those two issues, then he can really cripple us by shutting down the flow of computer chips and related stuff.
This is the most dangerous moment of all, where the Globalistas weigh whether to try some, last, desperate gamble to salvage a developing disaster that makes Afghanistan look like a rained out Girl Scout cookie sale.
Rec'd for cookie sale comment :)
Just about time to switch focus to Xi's invasion of Taiwan...
I hope not. Taiwan just wants to be left alone. I don’t expect much to happen to the November Central Committee election? Will Xi get an unprecedented since Mao third term? How much longer can China endure Xi’s zero Covid delusions?
And Ukraine May be surprised China at the economic blow back, and Russian military issues. China is patient, and May decide they need to take certain actions to minimize their risk. Such as having party officials and family get rid of Western assets…
You've no doubt watched the reporting coming from TGP, perhaps Mark has linked, already, e.g.:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/dull-disinformation-calling-final-war-jeff-nyquist-discusses-details-recent-ccp-meeting-invading-taiwan-first-reported-tgp/
I strongly recommend Bannon's warroom, second hour Saturday:
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9saXN0ZW4ud2Fycm9vbS5vcmcvZmVlZC54bWw/episode/d2Fycm9vbWltcGVhY2htZW50LnBvZGJlYW4uY29tLzcyY2Y2NjJjLTYxMDAtMzEwYy1iYzY1LWI5MjRmMzJkNTU0YQ?ep=14
I do not think Taiwan gets a vote in the ChiCom politburo regarding the timing of an invasion.
There's a theory that political leaders will initiate military action prior to elections in order to benefit from the "rally around the flag, rally around the leader" sentiment.
Naah, that would never happen.
BTW, have you heard about the ChiCom ForMin Wang YI's currently underway excision through Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia? This is a must-read piece from Cleo Paskal in today's Sunday Guardian:
https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/china-launches-empire-building-exercise-pacific-theatre
The (former CINCPAC Admiral) Davidson "window of concern" was now through 2027. But, I'll tell you this, Ray, these next five months, particularly around August, are of great concern.
~~~
For some background on the US Navy 's posture, VA-02 Rep Elaine Luria paints a bleak canvas:
https://youtu.be/ym-X2lSwFw4
My wife’s Taiwanese, so I get a bit of local news, and my own research.
Due to weather there are only certain times of years that work for an invasion.
March until late April, as well as late September until the end of October
HTTPS://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/10-things-i-learned-from-ian-eastons?s=r
Taiwans military is improving, the building of diesel subs is a game changer. As is longer range missiles.
Taiwan’s military had huge logistic / spare parts issues that made for low readiness. Horrible transition from draft. Plus a dysfunctional reserve system. And very strong gun control. I don’t know if this changed, but I doubt it.
Ukraine has been a wake up call for Taiwan, but Covid is a major focus. And lots of political issues on making their military effective, verses the current focus on large, prestige purchases, instead of nuts and bolts issues.
China has been very focused on making sure the us can’t repeat the Clinton era show of force of a couple of aircraft carriers groups. I see them as huge targets now, and the us Navy is more focused on climate change anyway.
I’m sure it’s a coincidence the us has an aircraft carrier group in the area.
https://southfront.org/locations-of-us-carrier-strike-groups-may-24-2022/
...and why invade now? Can't Xi sit back for a while and watch Biden self-destruct?
Isn't Xi far more dependent on US export trade than Putin is?
Agreed.
Plus, Xi seems to be a disciple of the "win without firing a shot" school. Why invade Taiwan when he already has substantial control via financial influence?
Conversely, there is such a thing as windows of opportunity, and the current window is unique in the history of the world: a superpower intentionally self-destructing.
But before he can invade he has to calculate how much pain China can endure. He needs to unwind China's dollar reserves, which I think is somewhere north of two trillion. And he has to be willing or able to do without trade to the U.S.
If he can manage those two issues, then he can really cripple us by shutting down the flow of computer chips and related stuff.
Just about time to switch focus to the Republic of China and Xi's invasion plans...