Earlier today a reader with first hand experience in Gabon provided a bit of perspective on the role of France in Africa, and in Gabon in particular. Here is an anonymized version of that communication: I’m writing because I once spent time in Gabon and observed its clear subservient role to France. This was in the early 2000s. I doubt much has changed since then.
Gabon joined the (British) Commonwealth a few years ago. I don't know where this fits in. Togo did at the same time. Togo has major strategic importance because it has a deep-water port. It is the terminus to serve Niger.
Absolutely can't overstate the significance of Africa's awakening to a fairer deal available elsewhere. From the earliest days of my career, I worked on project and infrastructure financings throughout Africa. Mostly power, pipelines and water (desalination), these projects were financed strictly on an asset-backed, limited recourse model. Essentially, major global banks put in money for a reasonable, time-limited margin on an investment structured to pay for itself by virtue of guaranteed output from a tightly-engineered and -constructed facility. Everyone won in these projects, from big banks with a bookable, if more modest, stream of guaranteed income, to local governments trying to develop their commercial profile, to average citizens who were experiencing reliable electricity and water for the first time. The only real government-to-government involvement was export credit agencies (US EXIM, Britain's ECGD, etc.) supplying political-risk insurance for things like nationalizations, appropriations, etc..
Somewhere around late Clinton, the model started to change to more of an equity approach, with OPIC, USAID, International Development Finance Corporation establishing growth funds (particularly in the Sahel region) to which African governments and state industries could turn for funds. These funds were more readily available to them, but, much like the IMF, came with a greater degree of conditionality geared toward what the State Department, rather than the markets, wanted to see. Russia and China were not then in a position to offer a fairer deal like the project-finance model of old. They are now, and, I believe, this is exactly what will turn the tide in all of Africa, not some behind-the-scenes political influence or subterfuge.
Thanks for that insight. It sounds like the model changed from reasonable development geared to local needs to co-opting for geopolitical purposes, masquerading as development.
Speaking of “shifting sands,” Simplicius lambasts the West’s lame hypocrisy re Niger/Gabon/Africa and RU/Ukraine near the end of his most recent post:
“The West is now in a lose-lose situation. Even if they back an ECOWAS military action against Niger or others, for instance, they will expose major hypocrisy not only to African countries but to the rest of the world which will merely bring down the West’s standing even more, push further countries to disconnect from them and join the new multipolar order. Not only will the West show their naked colonialism but it will be brought to light how they hypocritically back military action against a sovereign nation in Africa while condemning the same exact action in Ukraine. Recall that Russia’s actions can be viewed as an intervention of an illegal coup which ousted the democratically elected Ukrainian leader; how could the West condemn the coup in Africa and support its reversal via military action while supporting the coup in Ukraine while condemning the military action to reverse the coup there?”
1. Russia through Iran to Saudi (KSA) route. It’s cheaper and faster than Suez, and avoids choke points. No real traffic yet, but gut feeling this will rapidly change.
And from what I read:
A. It’s going to get much faster within a year. Iran has built 600 of 700 km of needed railway. Longer term if an Armenian railway gets built even faster.
B. It’s been in the works for a long time, with infrastructure being built up, planned since 2014.
C. India is also backing it.
D. And sending the first delivery to KSA sends a major message.
2. Far East de-dollarization
Includes a pact between: Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Philippines and Brunei
It's not total de-dollarization, not de-dollarization at midnight, but it makes sense, is a cumulative process, and will have a cumulative effect.
It seems to me that one of the things holding BRICS back is prickly China - India relations. And yet all the dynamics of these emerging relations point toward pressure to get along.
Yes, you’re right about “prickly” India/China relations. MKB discusses this and does mention Xi and Modi at Brics trying to get fences mended (border w Tibet I guess).
Iran may be the lynchpin here. Iran connects East and West in a geographic sense, plus North and South. India falls in between all of this, but has long had good relations with Iran because of energy.
Adding to the Reader’s comments: A decent summary from Fr24 on the Omar/Ali Bongo family dynasty that has ruled Gabon (with continued political violence) for 50+ years. Apparently Macron’s visit back in March did not impress - as Ray points out below, M’s “Forest Summit” (preserving the Central African rain forest) came across as simply lending political support to Bongo in upcoming elections…and to think Macron made relations with Africa a top priority of his government (there’s that word “democracy” again!)
“ In terms of per-capita GDP, Gabon is one of the richest countries in Africa and oil accounts for 60 percent of the country's revenues, but a third of the population still lives below the poverty line of $5.50 per day, according to the World Bank. ”
Note - everything I have read about Niger and Gabon, both very poor countries, not one word in any article about France trying to help the economic well being of regular people. France comes across as an economic colonialist, controlling countries economically through local figureheads.
And then the Chinese came along and starting making offers of fair deals to these countries, along with all sorts of infrastructure help. That surely opened eyes. You can bet that France used plenty of bribery to maintain the status quo, but those outside the inner circle saw what a house of cards it all was. Irony. The US military trained many of the militaries in these countries. As it turned out, training that was used for coups. We naively thought the locals would never think for themselves.
There seems to be some suspician - or rumour - that the Niger coup leader is in fact doing the West’s bidding (US-trained, “bribed”) and consequently pushing France out - militarily and economically…maybe it was Simplicius who reported that…
I commented re Gabon yesterday that many of the militaries of the countries currently trying to break free--especially in the Sahel--had been US trained, had US advisers, etc. That includes Niger. But it doesn't necessarily equate to "doing the West's bidding." No doubt that was the hope, but ...
The old President has health issues, and a huge family that was sucking the country dry. And after no action by France with the Niger coup, the local Gabon military saw an opportunity.
I wonder if it has occurred to any of the “elites” running the western world that the image being presented is less than flattering? They think they are projecting power, but it’s coming across as a poorly planned and chaotic response to a constantly changing political reality of which they are totally clueless. Their “punishing sanctions” meant to destroy Russia have produced the opposite effect and threaten to bring financial calamity to everyone but the Russians. And this display of confusion coupled with an all too obvious impotence has possibly emboldened other countries to “not let a crisis go to waste” and reorder longstanding, but disadvantageous political relationships. The world stage is rapidly evolving and the Neocons, and those who think like them, refuse to acknowledge reality with the net result, as Ayn Rand observed, they can “ignore reality, but they can’t avoid it”! That reckoning is due into the station at any moment, and I’m sure that they’ll be totally surprised.
Hooray for the Africans finally waking up. It’s starting to look like their brethren in this country may also be starting to free themselves from the democrat party. The worm turns ever so slowly.
Daniel Henninger (op Ed ) in today’s WSJ says that a Trump v Biden race guarantees four more years of Biden. Therefore the Dems will dump Biden and nominate one of great blue state governors who will easily beat the mad man trump. He practically guarantees it. Trump doesn’t have a chance. After these incredible words of wisdom I wrote to trump begging him to plead guilty to all charges and go directly to jail. Do not not pass go. oh wait, that’s a different game.
Gabon joined the (British) Commonwealth a few years ago. I don't know where this fits in. Togo did at the same time. Togo has major strategic importance because it has a deep-water port. It is the terminus to serve Niger.
It looks like a very fluid situation.
Absolutely can't overstate the significance of Africa's awakening to a fairer deal available elsewhere. From the earliest days of my career, I worked on project and infrastructure financings throughout Africa. Mostly power, pipelines and water (desalination), these projects were financed strictly on an asset-backed, limited recourse model. Essentially, major global banks put in money for a reasonable, time-limited margin on an investment structured to pay for itself by virtue of guaranteed output from a tightly-engineered and -constructed facility. Everyone won in these projects, from big banks with a bookable, if more modest, stream of guaranteed income, to local governments trying to develop their commercial profile, to average citizens who were experiencing reliable electricity and water for the first time. The only real government-to-government involvement was export credit agencies (US EXIM, Britain's ECGD, etc.) supplying political-risk insurance for things like nationalizations, appropriations, etc..
Somewhere around late Clinton, the model started to change to more of an equity approach, with OPIC, USAID, International Development Finance Corporation establishing growth funds (particularly in the Sahel region) to which African governments and state industries could turn for funds. These funds were more readily available to them, but, much like the IMF, came with a greater degree of conditionality geared toward what the State Department, rather than the markets, wanted to see. Russia and China were not then in a position to offer a fairer deal like the project-finance model of old. They are now, and, I believe, this is exactly what will turn the tide in all of Africa, not some behind-the-scenes political influence or subterfuge.
Thanks for that insight. It sounds like the model changed from reasonable development geared to local needs to co-opting for geopolitical purposes, masquerading as development.
Precisely!
Off topic, but Adam Carolla's interview with Carlson is interesting. https://adamcarolla.com/tucker-carlson-5/
Not so OT, really. Everything is connected.
Speaking of “shifting sands,” Simplicius lambasts the West’s lame hypocrisy re Niger/Gabon/Africa and RU/Ukraine near the end of his most recent post:
“The West is now in a lose-lose situation. Even if they back an ECOWAS military action against Niger or others, for instance, they will expose major hypocrisy not only to African countries but to the rest of the world which will merely bring down the West’s standing even more, push further countries to disconnect from them and join the new multipolar order. Not only will the West show their naked colonialism but it will be brought to light how they hypocritically back military action against a sovereign nation in Africa while condemning the same exact action in Ukraine. Recall that Russia’s actions can be viewed as an intervention of an illegal coup which ousted the democratically elected Ukrainian leader; how could the West condemn the coup in Africa and support its reversal via military action while supporting the coup in Ukraine while condemning the military action to reverse the coup there?”
He's absolutely right.
Simplicius Notes some major changes:
1. Russia through Iran to Saudi (KSA) route. It’s cheaper and faster than Suez, and avoids choke points. No real traffic yet, but gut feeling this will rapidly change.
And from what I read:
A. It’s going to get much faster within a year. Iran has built 600 of 700 km of needed railway. Longer term if an Armenian railway gets built even faster.
B. It’s been in the works for a long time, with infrastructure being built up, planned since 2014.
C. India is also backing it.
D. And sending the first delivery to KSA sends a major message.
2. Far East de-dollarization
Includes a pact between: Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Philippines and Brunei
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-83023-ukraine-smokescreens
It's not total de-dollarization, not de-dollarization at midnight, but it makes sense, is a cumulative process, and will have a cumulative effect.
It seems to me that one of the things holding BRICS back is prickly China - India relations. And yet all the dynamics of these emerging relations point toward pressure to get along.
Yes, you’re right about “prickly” India/China relations. MKB discusses this and does mention Xi and Modi at Brics trying to get fences mended (border w Tibet I guess).
Iran may be the lynchpin here. Iran connects East and West in a geographic sense, plus North and South. India falls in between all of this, but has long had good relations with Iran because of energy.
Adding to the Reader’s comments: A decent summary from Fr24 on the Omar/Ali Bongo family dynasty that has ruled Gabon (with continued political violence) for 50+ years. Apparently Macron’s visit back in March did not impress - as Ray points out below, M’s “Forest Summit” (preserving the Central African rain forest) came across as simply lending political support to Bongo in upcoming elections…and to think Macron made relations with Africa a top priority of his government (there’s that word “democracy” again!)
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230830-attempted-coup-in-gabon-aims-to-remove-president-ali-bongo-from-power-and-end-50-year-dynasty
Great article! Shocking quote:
“ In terms of per-capita GDP, Gabon is one of the richest countries in Africa and oil accounts for 60 percent of the country's revenues, but a third of the population still lives below the poverty line of $5.50 per day, according to the World Bank. ”
Note - everything I have read about Niger and Gabon, both very poor countries, not one word in any article about France trying to help the economic well being of regular people. France comes across as an economic colonialist, controlling countries economically through local figureheads.
Yes Ray - true about the “Kuwait of Africa” as Le Gabon has been called. Consortium News also covers Africa with particular expertise;
https://consortiumnews.com/2023/08/30/another-regime-in-french-west-africa-is-toppled/
Interesting - 5th former French colony to recently have a military coup.
And the ex President amassed a billion dollars in assets.
And then the Chinese came along and starting making offers of fair deals to these countries, along with all sorts of infrastructure help. That surely opened eyes. You can bet that France used plenty of bribery to maintain the status quo, but those outside the inner circle saw what a house of cards it all was. Irony. The US military trained many of the militaries in these countries. As it turned out, training that was used for coups. We naively thought the locals would never think for themselves.
There seems to be some suspician - or rumour - that the Niger coup leader is in fact doing the West’s bidding (US-trained, “bribed”) and consequently pushing France out - militarily and economically…maybe it was Simplicius who reported that…
I commented re Gabon yesterday that many of the militaries of the countries currently trying to break free--especially in the Sahel--had been US trained, had US advisers, etc. That includes Niger. But it doesn't necessarily equate to "doing the West's bidding." No doubt that was the hope, but ...
Yes, reality being more complicated!
I doubt the U.S. pushed at this time.
The old President has health issues, and a huge family that was sucking the country dry. And after no action by France with the Niger coup, the local Gabon military saw an opportunity.
???? a typo in source’s 2nd para; should prob read “France remains a colonial power in Africa…”, yes?
The West has also been forcing the green new deal onto African Nations.
Elites get paid off, while the rest suffer.
Environmental colonialism.
And the cosmic shift continues apace.
I wonder if it has occurred to any of the “elites” running the western world that the image being presented is less than flattering? They think they are projecting power, but it’s coming across as a poorly planned and chaotic response to a constantly changing political reality of which they are totally clueless. Their “punishing sanctions” meant to destroy Russia have produced the opposite effect and threaten to bring financial calamity to everyone but the Russians. And this display of confusion coupled with an all too obvious impotence has possibly emboldened other countries to “not let a crisis go to waste” and reorder longstanding, but disadvantageous political relationships. The world stage is rapidly evolving and the Neocons, and those who think like them, refuse to acknowledge reality with the net result, as Ayn Rand observed, they can “ignore reality, but they can’t avoid it”! That reckoning is due into the station at any moment, and I’m sure that they’ll be totally surprised.
Hooray for the Africans finally waking up. It’s starting to look like their brethren in this country may also be starting to free themselves from the democrat party. The worm turns ever so slowly.
Daniel Henninger (op Ed ) in today’s WSJ says that a Trump v Biden race guarantees four more years of Biden. Therefore the Dems will dump Biden and nominate one of great blue state governors who will easily beat the mad man trump. He practically guarantees it. Trump doesn’t have a chance. After these incredible words of wisdom I wrote to trump begging him to plead guilty to all charges and go directly to jail. Do not not pass go. oh wait, that’s a different game.