Quick 3/4/22 Strategic Update Per Patrick Armstrong

I posted excerpts from and a discussion of Patrick Armstrong’s strategic overview of the Russia - New World Order conflict—which centers for now in Ukraine—toward the beginning of the Russia military operation. Today Larry Johnson has posted some additional comments by Armstrong. Follow the link for the entire discussion, but here are some key excerpts. The world is changing. The end of history is nothing but Neocon fantasy:

So far the Russian military operation in Ukraine has been a reconnaissance in force preceded by the destruction of the supplies and headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by standoff weapons. The object being to suss out where the Ukrainian forces are, to surround them, to check existing Russian intelligence against reality and, at the same time, destroy known headquarters, air and naval assets, supplies and ammunition depots. And, perhaps, there was the hope that the speed and success (Russian/LDPR forces dominated an area of Ukraine about the size of the United Kingdom in the first week) would force an early end (aka recognition of reality).

At the moment they are readying for the next phase. The long column that so obsessed the “experts” on CNN is the preparation for the next phase. And that is this: “You didn’t get the hint, so now we have to hit you”. The fact that the column has been sitting there indicates that the Russians know they have complete air superiority. Secondly it is a message to the Ukrainian armed forces that it’s over, give up. (And one should never forget that the Russians/Soviets have always been the best at strategic deception, so who knows what’s actually there versus what the images show?)

As far as I can see they’ve created three cauldrons (encirclements).

This is a strategic concept we’ve discussed in a bit of detail. What facilitated this move by the Russian forces was the fact that a large portion of truly combat effective Ukrainian forces were effectively entrenched along the Line of Contact in the extreme east of the country. Withdrawal from such a situation—while under attack and without air cover—is pretty much an impossibility. The Russian encircling forces are able to act with far greater freedom of movement, as we’re seeing.

The dilemma for the Russians is city fighting. ...

There are some slight indications, on Day 8, that Ukrainian negotiators are realising that neutrality is something they have to agree to. I also see the realisation creeping up on the American side.

... In about a week’s time, an independent Novorossiya [the southern part of Ukraine closest to Crimea] will exist and Russia will continue to have the hammer.

I would expect large-scale surrenders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to begin in the next 24/48 hours (Chechen forces already claim one and have an impressive collection of “trophies” to prove it). ...

GRAND STRATEGY

The impotence of the EU and NATO is clear to everyone (Well, OK, not anyone on CNN, or in the US Congress or in the halls of power in the West. But they are not the whole world). ...

...

We are seeing the collapse of post Cold War triumphalism, “end of history”, “unilateralism” and all the rest of it. Reality is biting, and biting hard. … The confusion, the bullshit, the boasting, the hysteria, the bans: the West has nothing left in the locker. …

Judo is about deception and using the opponent’s strength against him. Putin, the judoka, has judoed the West into suicide. Put your money in our banks, we can confiscate it; put your assets in our territory, we can steal them; use our money and we can cancel it; put your yacht in our harbour, we can pirate it; put your gold in our vault, we can grab it. That is a lesson that will resound around the world. A naked illustration that the “rules-based international order” is simply that we make the rules and order you to obey them. …

As to Western sanctions against Russia, I think there’s a very simple answer to that: ... What the people in the West do not understand is the ruble is the currency the Russians use inside the country but the price of oil and gas is the Russian currency outside the country. I am astounded at the stupidity: they’re cutting their own throats and destroying their own economies.

…

The world order has changed. Week Two.

Our rulers think they can walk away from the Covid Regime debacle, from the Woke debacle of BLM and CRT and all the rest, covering their walkaway with gaslighting about Russia, Russia, Russia. Now they think they can walk away from the coming economic debacle with the same gaslighting. There are a lot of chickens in the air, and they can’t stay aloft indefinitely.