Prigozhin 5: Is It Over? The March May Be, But the Repercussions Will Probably Continue.

Various, not entirely consistent, reports stating that Wagner “columns” are turning around and leaving their march on Moscow.

First there were claims that Belarus’ Lukashenko talked Prigozhin into a deal:

Russians With Attitude

@RWApodcast

Reports are coming in of successful negotiations with Wagner, faciliated by Belorussian President Lukashenko.

12:14 PM · Jun 24, 2023

Prigozhin denied that at one point—hard to say what’s up with that:

Nevertheless, the end result appears to be fact—as far as Wagner turning around, per a typically self serving statement from Prigozhin:

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  --

@GeromanAT

E.Prigozhin's statement:

PMC Wagner wanted to disband.

We left on June 23 for the "March of Justice".

During the day we walked 200 km before reaching Moscow. During this time, we have not shed a single drop of the blood of our fighters.

Now is the moment when blood can be shed. Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed on one of the sides, we deploy our columns and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps according to the plan.

12:39 PM · Jun 24, 2023

Reality may have dawned on the dupes in those “columns” as they were hit by Alligator attack helicopters:

Stellar Winds

@Room641_A

Only <10% of Armed forces do the killing

Wagner's 50k force is only 5k combatants

RU has all the logistics and support

RU controls the Airspace

RU already holds the ground

RU has the support of local governments

Wagner would be on a Suicide mission if the the coup was true

12:22 PM · Jun 24, 2023

So for now:

ayden

@squatsons

Prigozhin accepted Lukashenka's proposal to stop the movement of PMC Wagner — TASS

Wow that was quicker then I expected.

12:15 PM · Jun 24, 2023

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  --

@GeromanAT

Russian "Civil War" is over

12:41 PM · Jun 24, 2023

So, all rather weird. However, two points that may be very important:

1. Putin did not speak directly with Prigozhin, if we accept the Belarus account. That comports with Putin’s speech, in which he never once mentioned Prigozhin by name. Prigozhin may officially now, in Russia, be a non-person—with an arrest warrant out for him, accused for the moment of fomenting armed rebellion but perhaps later of treason? If I were advising Putin I would certainly tell him not to back down in any way.

2. The Belarus accounts speaks of “security guarantees for Wagner PMC fighters.” It says nothing about security guarantees for Prigozhin. Strictly speculation: Is it possible that the Wagner rank and file dupes in these smallish “columns” took some attacks from Russian aviation and realized that they were being used by Prigozhin? Prigozhin then realized on his part that the jig was up and headed for the only exit that seemed available at the moment? I don’t know, but we should find out fairly soon.

This probably isn’t over—IMO the FSB will certainly be commissioned to root out any Prigozhin supporters.