In politics you always need to prepare people for what comes next. In the absence of apparent catastrophe you need to prepare them for any venture outside their comfort zone. Trump somehow forgot that, and forgot to game out the likely/possible consequences of his actions.
Never thought I'd be doing this, but this is Peggy Noonan making legit points in Trump's Climbdown For The Ages. When your brand is Stable Genius, climbdowns like this are especially serious. They lead to loss of trust. It's not just tariffs. Switching from peacemaker to warmonger is also disquieting for many. It hasn't reached the level of public outrage, but one false step ...:
"Donald Trump scared people he hadn’t scared before. He didn’t use to scare his policy allies—small-business people, workers, retirees. He did this week. Fear dampens reflexive support. Politicians need reflexive support from the bottom of their base as a platform from which to move. The president weakened his position.
"It is hard to see how it helps him with Republicans in Congress. It demonstrated to them that his judgment can be wrong about big things.
"... It would have been understood if he’d gathered allies and taken a big swing at China. Instead he took a big swing at the world, including China. ...
"It wasn’t good to let the world know, or to remind it so vividly, that the way to get America to back off is to tank its bond market."
I like a lot of the actions that Trump is taking. To be clear, what I write doesn't imply I agree with everything. In some of my comments, I analyze what I see as his mindset and I draw or posit conclusions.
The tariffs. Trump's trying to undo 30+ years of disastrous Dem and Rep trade policy. He knows we still have a good chance to reclaim our strength, but the hour is late.
Trump's moral compass. Agree that he has one. He can go down in history as one of our top five presidents if he can be the peace president. I don't like the bombing he's done. My guess is he's using every arrow in his quiver, carrots and sticks.
What's Trump up to? Good question. He's nimble and he's building the plane in the sky, so to speak. There are so many sides to him, gracious, petty, showman, truth speaker, BSer, arrogant, humble, inquisitive, impatient, juvenile, statesman.
Part of his nimbleness is not putting his eggs in one basket. We're in for a wild ride.
Really excellent article - tx IJM! This part jumped out as it underscores what Mark says about We the People and how Trump should connect more w his electorate:
“Clearly, now is a good time for Trump to chart a new course forward for America. Fortunately, on each of the issues discussed above—trade, immigration, and war—he can take simple steps to bring White House policy more in line with the preferences of the American people.”
Just as a general observation: It seems to me that Trump 1.0 was much more systematic in defining and meeting objectives: what he promised during the campaign he either did or attempted to do in a very systematic, clear, transparent way - whether it be junking TTP, replacing NAFTA with USMCA , building the border wall, passing a bill reducing corporate and individual taxes, etc.
It seems Trump's "transactional" nature and default approach to problems has a much freer hand during Trump 2.0. This natural inclination of his would explain the uber-aggressive negotiating stances, wild policy stance swings, and contrary diplomatic gestures from day to day and week to week. This could be a factor of the personnel in his administration this time. But truly, I tend to think that he sees himself with a limited timeframe (like two years) to accomplish all he wants to do and that is pushing him to the most aggressive postures and actions possible in that limited duration and he is taking more on himself personally because of that.
That said, two things in particular bother me about this:
1) Other nations have no way to gauge what he will do when. When one hour he is pretty clearly stating that the tariffs will remain in place for awhile and the next hour they are all being replaced with a blanket 10% for 90 days (except for China) how are countries supposed to react and deal with that? Might it not change again tomorrow? The same can be said for how financial markets react in the absence of any assurances or continuity.
2) It shows a lack of strategic thinking and planning. An example is apparently that no one thought about what might happen if the bond market reacted negatively either by foreign bondholders selling or the implosion of the basis trade. Further, no one considered the implications of this until Bessent brought it to Trump's attention, apparently. There needs to be a more coordinated, comprehensive view of problems and potential solutions and their implications among his staff - and they need to make him listen to such approaches, alternatives, and consequences.
The fact that he's term-limited and also eight years older may be factors. The four disastrous Biden years are probably factors.
The lawfare and the (probably) stolen election are possible factors. Trump himself, admitted he was not aware how deep the corruption, deception and grift ran.
I don't doubt that the bullet to the ear impacted him. I'm posting a link to a clip about the outreach that Trump made to McCain's daughter.
I also believe the ---- Greatest Error to date ---- was made by JD Vance
"We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture,"
JD Vance comments did unmeasurable damage to US China relations
not only disrespectul - but Chinese social media went crazy
For One thing this means XI has the full support of the Citizens regardless how bad their economy gets - they will gladly suffer due to this disrespect
JD Vance needs to make an immediate apology to China and the Chinese people.
Vance made the comments last Thursday I believe , during an interview on Fox News
While not seen much in US press perhaps
Reports were that the JD Vance Comments then blew up on Chinese social media getting millions on millions of comments
It's a pretty big deal in China the concept of ' saving face '
here's google
In Chinese culture, "saving face" (面子, miànzi) is a crucial concept representing respect, honor, and social standing. It's about maintaining dignity and preventing individuals from experiencing embarrassment or humiliation in public. "Saving face" involves both giving face to others and protecting one's own.
It's not just Chinese, it's pretty much an Asian character trait, when I say Asian I do not include the middle east as some have begun to refer to them as. I wonder if Vance has been schooled in any sort of cultural details of the various people he may need to interact with. This is one of the bigger complaints of American diplomacy, the lack of knowledge of other cultures and their peculiar traits that we tend to be unaware. I remember a flack (can't remember precisely the details) that during a negotiation one of our party to the discussions showed the bottom of his shoe which was insulting in their culture.
Can’t get over how the little week-long “Main Street vs. Wall Street” rhetorical tangent culminated yesterday with Charles Schwab in the White House and Trump merrily relaying that he made $2.5 billion off administration-induced market fluctuations
No mention of the fact that the over-leveraged basis trade - a Wall Street trade often characterized as grabbing pennies in front of an oncoming freight trade - was the cause of the Treasury sales as traders were forced to liquidate their positions due to plunging rates? I don’t see any evidence China or Japan dumped treasuries in retaliation for the tariffs and think that a conclusion that deserves scrutiny. As some have noted, that would have resulted in a drop in the USD, which I don’t think occurred. Rates went up due to forced sales due to incoming margin calls, just like in March 2020 when the Fed bailed these traders out, which only served to encourage them to grow the trade.
"""Look, I’m in sympathy with what Trump says he wants to accomplish."""
I'm in agreement also - the US cannot survive any military issue without manufacturing; on a civilian level it seems insane also eg: to rely on One Country China for 70 - 80 % of medical ingredients - at least disperse them between 4 - 5 countries
Where I think Trump failed is everyting, all at once, at the same time;
Military war with Russia Iran Syria Lebanon Gaza/Israel Yemen threatening China and trying to keep North Korea in grasp; then civil war talking Canada and Greenland - with a economic war with the world - and shoring up the border - amongst numerous other issues
OK why not complete one thing and turn to another - or if not, why not pick one country and go about resolving tarrifs before taking on 50
everyting, all at once, at the same time
Appears obvious his head must be spinning - whose would not be.
.... Still believing Trump is trying to find money to pay for Isreal and taking of Gaza - I fear his everything all at once at the same time Tariffs were a hoped for simple way to get money quick.
Trump must be desparate for money for Israel and Israel must be desparate to get it - the longer the war goes on the deeper Israel sinks
I read all of the DOGE savings are great - but where is the money - was there a tremendous amount of money put back into the Government Treasure ? [ Next Step approaching Congress for 50 - 100 Billion for Israel ]
Agreed - too many things of too great complexity and consequence going on at the same time. But from what I have read previously, PDJT is acting on the assumption he has only two years (Rep control of Congress) to get all of his goals done. Could be seen as a great flaw of our governing system.
Look, I think Trump has been pretty transparent with his long term strategic goals. Where he has been quixotic is his short term tactical moves. He has to be semi-transparent with his tactics or it just gives his enemies a much improved target list - and they will use it to thwart his goals. Hence, he plays his near-term plans pretty close to his vest and uses his everything-all-at-once approach to confuse and hamstring his enemies.
One alone would demand and take enormous dedictated time, skill, attention, knowledge
these are two of the greatest world issues since WWII
Kennedy was apparently brilliant with Cuba - but that was one battle - and it came and went rather quickly
I do not believe Witkoff nor Rubio are up for the challenge - that means Trump has to read volumes and prepare volumes to have a discussion with Lavrov - Lavrov not only Lived it But Lived it for years - I can't imagine Trump would leave it up to those two but maybe and neither of them have 1/50th the knowledge Lavrov has - how could they - he lived it
Bullying only gets you so far , brash comments are soundbites Like JD Vance
but that often does more harm then good
I do not think a reasonable outcome possible without preparation and free from distraction.
JM: “But the more important point, in my opinion, about Trump is that he has no moral compass.”
It is interesting that Trump wanted to overturn Roe v Wade with his Supreme picks. Was this a bone to throw to his evangelical base or does he really have a problem with abortion? Is Trump amoral? A utilitarian?
He wants to end the UKR/Russia war because lots of young men are dying. And that’s a plenty good reason. Yet he strays from the end goal by throwing up smoke screens such as mineral deals etc.
Many innocents are dying horrific deaths in Gaza at the hands of the Israelis and American bombs. Yet he continues to fund these brutalities without any apparent compunction other than occasionally slapping down Bibi.
He’s a complicated politician. He seems to engender unquestioning support from those who should know better - those who run the Michael Tracey characterized “partisan slop accounts.”
His personal life is not admirable in many ways. Yet many of us understand that he is the best that we have and we must make do. But it’s frustrating when there do not appear to be any deeply held moral values and principles that are consistently applied.
In one of his books, Trump wrote about abortion. This was many years ago. He supported the right to an abortion but drew the line at partial-birth abortion.
The modern-day Trump, in my opinion, genuinely does not like abortion. I was disappointed in some of his rhetoric after the uproar about Dobbs. As president, he still speaks about the sanctity of life. One thing I'll say about Trump, for a man who fibs often, he is more truthful than most politicians.
True. But Trump has a PHD in real estate and growing wealth. Further isn’t Trump’s plan to prevent US bankruptcy and insolvency? Isn’t Trump trying to make king dollar retain its crown similar to Putin?
What I see is a strategy of triangulation. Ukraine/Russia, Middle East, Iran. Trump playing these 3 corners with varying messaging to keep all off balance looking for cracks and leverage until something becomes apparent. Deepen the triangulation with global tariffs to offset macroeconomic stability again to see what shakes out for leverage and then strike. Example, if Russia can influence Iran to prevent nukes then he can reduce sanctions or concede some negotiation terms to bring an end to war.
I see China and EU as lessor factors as he’s pissed with them. Plus he’s got to get the Bibi monkey off his back.
Yes and playing all 3 angles at once to find weaknesses or opportunities as leverage to be used elsewhere in another 60 degree corner (angel) to some advantage.
Interesting that the Iran and Ukraine angles have Russia in each - as clearly Russia has greased the skids for Trump to negotiate w Teheran. So I think Trump may need to get smart and return the favor and end support for Ukraine.
As Mark has written in the past don't assume Russia's isn't all 3 angles as is Iran. It's fairly obvious both are hence Trump's hedge shifts from time to time to create uncertainty looking for leverage.
create uncertainty = solidify unity among opponents = destroy what leverage you might have had.
Creating uncertainty among the Russian leadership will not give you leverage over them. It will convince them that they need to create their own certainty by establishing solid relationships with other opponents of US hegemony. Call it BRICS if you like, but it has morphed into increasingly close military ties among Russia, China, Iran.
In politics you always need to prepare people for what comes next. In the absence of apparent catastrophe you need to prepare them for any venture outside their comfort zone. Trump somehow forgot that, and forgot to game out the likely/possible consequences of his actions.
Never thought I'd be doing this, but this is Peggy Noonan making legit points in Trump's Climbdown For The Ages. When your brand is Stable Genius, climbdowns like this are especially serious. They lead to loss of trust. It's not just tariffs. Switching from peacemaker to warmonger is also disquieting for many. It hasn't reached the level of public outrage, but one false step ...:
"Donald Trump scared people he hadn’t scared before. He didn’t use to scare his policy allies—small-business people, workers, retirees. He did this week. Fear dampens reflexive support. Politicians need reflexive support from the bottom of their base as a platform from which to move. The president weakened his position.
"It is hard to see how it helps him with Republicans in Congress. It demonstrated to them that his judgment can be wrong about big things.
"... It would have been understood if he’d gathered allies and taken a big swing at China. Instead he took a big swing at the world, including China. ...
"It wasn’t good to let the world know, or to remind it so vividly, that the way to get America to back off is to tank its bond market."
I like a lot of the actions that Trump is taking. To be clear, what I write doesn't imply I agree with everything. In some of my comments, I analyze what I see as his mindset and I draw or posit conclusions.
The tariffs. Trump's trying to undo 30+ years of disastrous Dem and Rep trade policy. He knows we still have a good chance to reclaim our strength, but the hour is late.
Trump's moral compass. Agree that he has one. He can go down in history as one of our top five presidents if he can be the peace president. I don't like the bombing he's done. My guess is he's using every arrow in his quiver, carrots and sticks.
What's Trump up to? Good question. He's nimble and he's building the plane in the sky, so to speak. There are so many sides to him, gracious, petty, showman, truth speaker, BSer, arrogant, humble, inquisitive, impatient, juvenile, statesman.
Part of his nimbleness is not putting his eggs in one basket. We're in for a wild ride.
From American Conservative.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/trump-at-the-crossroads/
Really excellent article - tx IJM! This part jumped out as it underscores what Mark says about We the People and how Trump should connect more w his electorate:
“Clearly, now is a good time for Trump to chart a new course forward for America. Fortunately, on each of the issues discussed above—trade, immigration, and war—he can take simple steps to bring White House policy more in line with the preferences of the American people.”
I've got a lot of thoughts about Mr. Wauck's
latest posts but my phone is uncooperative.
Look forward to reading them when you can!
Thank you. I just posted. And, back at you with respect to my enjoying your thoughts.
Just as a general observation: It seems to me that Trump 1.0 was much more systematic in defining and meeting objectives: what he promised during the campaign he either did or attempted to do in a very systematic, clear, transparent way - whether it be junking TTP, replacing NAFTA with USMCA , building the border wall, passing a bill reducing corporate and individual taxes, etc.
It seems Trump's "transactional" nature and default approach to problems has a much freer hand during Trump 2.0. This natural inclination of his would explain the uber-aggressive negotiating stances, wild policy stance swings, and contrary diplomatic gestures from day to day and week to week. This could be a factor of the personnel in his administration this time. But truly, I tend to think that he sees himself with a limited timeframe (like two years) to accomplish all he wants to do and that is pushing him to the most aggressive postures and actions possible in that limited duration and he is taking more on himself personally because of that.
That said, two things in particular bother me about this:
1) Other nations have no way to gauge what he will do when. When one hour he is pretty clearly stating that the tariffs will remain in place for awhile and the next hour they are all being replaced with a blanket 10% for 90 days (except for China) how are countries supposed to react and deal with that? Might it not change again tomorrow? The same can be said for how financial markets react in the absence of any assurances or continuity.
2) It shows a lack of strategic thinking and planning. An example is apparently that no one thought about what might happen if the bond market reacted negatively either by foreign bondholders selling or the implosion of the basis trade. Further, no one considered the implications of this until Bessent brought it to Trump's attention, apparently. There needs to be a more coordinated, comprehensive view of problems and potential solutions and their implications among his staff - and they need to make him listen to such approaches, alternatives, and consequences.
dissonant1, I agree
The fact that he's term-limited and also eight years older may be factors. The four disastrous Biden years are probably factors.
The lawfare and the (probably) stolen election are possible factors. Trump himself, admitted he was not aware how deep the corruption, deception and grift ran.
I don't doubt that the bullet to the ear impacted him. I'm posting a link to a clip about the outreach that Trump made to McCain's daughter.
https://x.com/sagesteele/status/1909999228455182790
Agreed. All good.
.
I also believe the ---- Greatest Error to date ---- was made by JD Vance
"We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture,"
JD Vance comments did unmeasurable damage to US China relations
not only disrespectul - but Chinese social media went crazy
For One thing this means XI has the full support of the Citizens regardless how bad their economy gets - they will gladly suffer due to this disrespect
JD Vance needs to make an immediate apology to China and the Chinese people.
What an arrogant and foolish comment. That could go down in history like poor `Toinette's "Let them eat cake" moment history has punished her with.
Vance made the comments last Thursday I believe , during an interview on Fox News
While not seen much in US press perhaps
Reports were that the JD Vance Comments then blew up on Chinese social media getting millions on millions of comments
It's a pretty big deal in China the concept of ' saving face '
here's google
In Chinese culture, "saving face" (面子, miànzi) is a crucial concept representing respect, honor, and social standing. It's about maintaining dignity and preventing individuals from experiencing embarrassment or humiliation in public. "Saving face" involves both giving face to others and protecting one's own.
It's not just Chinese, it's pretty much an Asian character trait, when I say Asian I do not include the middle east as some have begun to refer to them as. I wonder if Vance has been schooled in any sort of cultural details of the various people he may need to interact with. This is one of the bigger complaints of American diplomacy, the lack of knowledge of other cultures and their peculiar traits that we tend to be unaware. I remember a flack (can't remember precisely the details) that during a negotiation one of our party to the discussions showed the bottom of his shoe which was insulting in their culture.
Are you Asian? I'll bet you'd resent being told to line up and kiss Trump's bum. It's normal human nature.
No, I am not, but I am insulted by the crassness of Trump and Vance when they speak like that. .
Of course.
Michael Tracey @mtracey
Can’t get over how the little week-long “Main Street vs. Wall Street” rhetorical tangent culminated yesterday with Charles Schwab in the White House and Trump merrily relaying that he made $2.5 billion off administration-induced market fluctuations
“Administration-induced market fluctuations” = grift
No mention of the fact that the over-leveraged basis trade - a Wall Street trade often characterized as grabbing pennies in front of an oncoming freight trade - was the cause of the Treasury sales as traders were forced to liquidate their positions due to plunging rates? I don’t see any evidence China or Japan dumped treasuries in retaliation for the tariffs and think that a conclusion that deserves scrutiny. As some have noted, that would have resulted in a drop in the USD, which I don’t think occurred. Rates went up due to forced sales due to incoming margin calls, just like in March 2020 when the Fed bailed these traders out, which only served to encourage them to grow the trade.
"""Look, I’m in sympathy with what Trump says he wants to accomplish."""
I'm in agreement also - the US cannot survive any military issue without manufacturing; on a civilian level it seems insane also eg: to rely on One Country China for 70 - 80 % of medical ingredients - at least disperse them between 4 - 5 countries
Where I think Trump failed is everyting, all at once, at the same time;
Military war with Russia Iran Syria Lebanon Gaza/Israel Yemen threatening China and trying to keep North Korea in grasp; then civil war talking Canada and Greenland - with a economic war with the world - and shoring up the border - amongst numerous other issues
OK why not complete one thing and turn to another - or if not, why not pick one country and go about resolving tarrifs before taking on 50
everyting, all at once, at the same time
Appears obvious his head must be spinning - whose would not be.
.... Still believing Trump is trying to find money to pay for Isreal and taking of Gaza - I fear his everything all at once at the same time Tariffs were a hoped for simple way to get money quick.
Trump must be desparate for money for Israel and Israel must be desparate to get it - the longer the war goes on the deeper Israel sinks
I read all of the DOGE savings are great - but where is the money - was there a tremendous amount of money put back into the Government Treasure ? [ Next Step approaching Congress for 50 - 100 Billion for Israel ]
.
Agreed - too many things of too great complexity and consequence going on at the same time. But from what I have read previously, PDJT is acting on the assumption he has only two years (Rep control of Congress) to get all of his goals done. Could be seen as a great flaw of our governing system.
Look, I think Trump has been pretty transparent with his long term strategic goals. Where he has been quixotic is his short term tactical moves. He has to be semi-transparent with his tactics or it just gives his enemies a much improved target list - and they will use it to thwart his goals. Hence, he plays his near-term plans pretty close to his vest and uses his everything-all-at-once approach to confuse and hamstring his enemies.
I agree with much of what you write
However, point out - for example:
Settlement in Russia EU
Settlement in Israel Gaza Palestine
One alone would demand and take enormous dedictated time, skill, attention, knowledge
these are two of the greatest world issues since WWII
Kennedy was apparently brilliant with Cuba - but that was one battle - and it came and went rather quickly
I do not believe Witkoff nor Rubio are up for the challenge - that means Trump has to read volumes and prepare volumes to have a discussion with Lavrov - Lavrov not only Lived it But Lived it for years - I can't imagine Trump would leave it up to those two but maybe and neither of them have 1/50th the knowledge Lavrov has - how could they - he lived it
Bullying only gets you so far , brash comments are soundbites Like JD Vance
but that often does more harm then good
I do not think a reasonable outcome possible without preparation and free from distraction.
.
JM: “But the more important point, in my opinion, about Trump is that he has no moral compass.”
It is interesting that Trump wanted to overturn Roe v Wade with his Supreme picks. Was this a bone to throw to his evangelical base or does he really have a problem with abortion? Is Trump amoral? A utilitarian?
He wants to end the UKR/Russia war because lots of young men are dying. And that’s a plenty good reason. Yet he strays from the end goal by throwing up smoke screens such as mineral deals etc.
Many innocents are dying horrific deaths in Gaza at the hands of the Israelis and American bombs. Yet he continues to fund these brutalities without any apparent compunction other than occasionally slapping down Bibi.
He’s a complicated politician. He seems to engender unquestioning support from those who should know better - those who run the Michael Tracey characterized “partisan slop accounts.”
His personal life is not admirable in many ways. Yet many of us understand that he is the best that we have and we must make do. But it’s frustrating when there do not appear to be any deeply held moral values and principles that are consistently applied.
In one of his books, Trump wrote about abortion. This was many years ago. He supported the right to an abortion but drew the line at partial-birth abortion.
The modern-day Trump, in my opinion, genuinely does not like abortion. I was disappointed in some of his rhetoric after the uproar about Dobbs. As president, he still speaks about the sanctity of life. One thing I'll say about Trump, for a man who fibs often, he is more truthful than most politicians.
I like escalated interest on bank deposits and rising gold and silver too.
Laughing Putin has a PHD in Economics,
Brought Russia back from bankruptcy,
And created Bricks.
True. But Trump has a PHD in real estate and growing wealth. Further isn’t Trump’s plan to prevent US bankruptcy and insolvency? Isn’t Trump trying to make king dollar retain its crown similar to Putin?
Well said - Pres Putin has done it, PDJT is doing it.
Good thoughts, Cass. I have large areas of overlapping thoughts with both you, and Simplicius
What I see is a strategy of triangulation. Ukraine/Russia, Middle East, Iran. Trump playing these 3 corners with varying messaging to keep all off balance looking for cracks and leverage until something becomes apparent. Deepen the triangulation with global tariffs to offset macroeconomic stability again to see what shakes out for leverage and then strike. Example, if Russia can influence Iran to prevent nukes then he can reduce sanctions or concede some negotiation terms to bring an end to war.
I see China and EU as lessor factors as he’s pissed with them. Plus he’s got to get the Bibi monkey off his back.
Right on, AC.
Does triangulation mean uniting all three angles (NB, there are no corners in a triangle) in opposition? :-( That's what I think is happening.
Yes and playing all 3 angles at once to find weaknesses or opportunities as leverage to be used elsewhere in another 60 degree corner (angel) to some advantage.
Interesting that the Iran and Ukraine angles have Russia in each - as clearly Russia has greased the skids for Trump to negotiate w Teheran. So I think Trump may need to get smart and return the favor and end support for Ukraine.
As Mark has written in the past don't assume Russia's isn't all 3 angles as is Iran. It's fairly obvious both are hence Trump's hedge shifts from time to time to create uncertainty looking for leverage.
Spoken like a true geometrician!
create uncertainty = solidify unity among opponents = destroy what leverage you might have had.
Creating uncertainty among the Russian leadership will not give you leverage over them. It will convince them that they need to create their own certainty by establishing solid relationships with other opponents of US hegemony. Call it BRICS if you like, but it has morphed into increasingly close military ties among Russia, China, Iran.
Other indicators being saber rattling Diego Garcia and the impact on Iran currency. https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2025/4/5/irans-currency-falls-to-record-low-as-tensions-with-us-mount
Thanks, Cassander, your hope is my desire.