Peace On Earth? It's Complicated
Over the past week there have been some rumors of peace. It may be worth our while to try sorting these out.
The first one turned up in the NYT, under the wildly implausible heading:
Putin Quietly Signals He Is Open to a Cease-Fire in Ukraine
Despite its bravado in public, the Kremlin has indicated its interest in striking a deal to halt the war — so long as it could still declare victory.
I thought this was so silly that I didn’t even bother addressing it. Putin has been publicly stating that there would be no negotiations, that Russia would complete its military operations in accordance with its stated goals. How foolish would he then look, heading into an election, if he deflated the balloon of Russian expectations by caving to the West? Ridiculous. In fact, Putin’s spokesman, Peskov, promptly labeled the claim as “incorrect.” Then, on Christmas Eve, the Russian chief of the general staff (the “Stavka”), Valery Gerasimov, delivered an address on the state of the global war. He openly stated that the United States states is waging war against the Russian Federation through various proxies—but, most significantly, Ukraine, which he characterized as a Neo-Nazi regime. It should be obvious by now that Russia is not about to enter negotiations with Neo-Nazis—that would be spitting on the memory of the Great Patriotic War. This is all the more the case given that Gerasimov went on to discuss all the different fronts of the American war on Russia. As Putin has repeatedly stated, Russia is fighting to win this war.
I took this whole nonsensical ploy to be another example of the West negotiating with itself. By that I mean, the West is continually floating various theoretical ways to extricate itself from a mess of its own making, in the hopes that they’ll get a nibble from the Russian end. It hasn’t worked and, in fact, Putin recently apologized for his own past naivite in trusting the West—promising not to do so again. I think you can bank that promise.
My bottom line guess as to the purpose of this ploy is that this was one more Deep State gaslighting attempt to influence Congress to pass billions and billions of bucks worth of aid in an attempt to keep the war alive past the elections in November, 2024. In essence, a Hail Mary attempt to get Congress to buy the election for Zhou, on the theory that if they can avoid public recognition of the catastrophe that Ukraine is, well, Zhou will have a chance.
More intriguing was the report that I featured in War On Russia: Is Something Big Going On? on December 20. Here’s the nub of it:
Russian officials flying into Washington. Washington Post removing Ukraine from their website. Game over.
Quote
Kit Klarenberg @KitKlarenberg
An hour and a half ago, a Russian "Special Flight Squadron" plane landed in Washington DC. They are used by Kremlin officials. It set out from St. Petersburg. You do the math.
I pointedly noted that I’d seen no confirmation of negotiations. Later, in a comment, I stated that I’d seen a report of a prisoner exchange. However, it has turned out that there was no prisoner exchange. There were only rumors, based on Russian complaints that the US wasn’t negotiating seriously regarding a prisoner exchange. So, Yes—there seem to be negotiations going on at some level regarding a prisoner exchange, but that had nothing to do with the flight. What’s up?
Klarenberg isn’t backing down. Check out Klarenberg’s follow-up from yesterday:
Plane parked at Dulles, DC for 54 hours. Absolutely was *not* there to rotate diplomats. Negotiations long and no doubt intense. Putin indicating an interest in a ceasefire is 100% related. Zelensky refusing will trigger a US-approved final push by Russia. Kiev is finished.
Quote
Kit Klarenberg @KitKlarenberg
Dec 20
An hour and a half ago, a Russian "Special Flight Squadron" plane landed in Washington DC. They are used by Kremlin officials. It set out from St. Petersburg. You do the math.
He followed that up with these two tweeted comments:
Ask yourself why US government has not commented on this at all. Ask yourself why mainstream news outlets simultaneously dumped their dedicated "war in Ukraine" sections. Ask yourself when - if ever - what was said during those negotiations will ever publicly emerge.
Extraordinary number of anon troll accounts created specifically to attack me for breaking this story, and push the line that the plane was in town for mundane purposes (switching diplomats, even delivering office supplies). This was likely the work of #77thBrigade. Sorry guys.
Armchair Warlord was impressed:
Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW
The Russians have been generating forces for over a year now and have been crystal clear that the war ends only when their demands are met in full or, barring that, when the state of Ukraine is destroyed.
I suspect they're currently saying as much to the only people who matter.
[Quote Kit Klarenberg @KitKlarenberg Dec 24]
I’m impressed, too, to this extent. The plane sitting at Dulles for 54 hours—it’s hard to consider that to be in any way routine or connected with any scheduled traffic, whether of prisoners exchanged or of diplomats departing the US. I can do that amount of math—54 hours is more than two days. If this was a flight that had a specific purpose behind it involving the entry or departure of known persons to/from the US, the plane would not have remained at Dulles for 24 hours. The best guess has to be along the lines of Klarenberg’s basic idea: there were intense, high level talks going on. About something.
But here’s my reservation. That NYT gaslighting story suggests that the Neocons really do want to keep the war in Ukraine going—even if only on the defensive. And we can be sure that the Russians are NOT looking for any supposed ceasefire or exit. I’m going to suggest two alternative theories that are purely speculative, but which do not involve negotiations to end the Ukraine front of World War 3—perhaps the contrary. In the circumstances, all such theories must be speculative. See what you think:
#1 Russia is delivering a warning that they are about to establish new ground rules in Ukraine, possibly with regard to F-16s (and Russia has already clearly stated that if any utilize NATO airfields to attack Russian forces, Russia will attack those airfields), or possibly with regard to Western ISR assistance to Ukraine and NATO personnel on the ground. In other words, Russia is warning of an imminent escalation that will include NATO assets/forces, possibly in view of Russia launching its own offensive. As of Gerasimov’s speech yesterday, Russia is waging an “active defense”. Is that about to change?
#2 The tarmac confab had nothing to do with Ukraine—although, of course, everything in World War 3 is connected. Instead, Russia may be engaged in intense talks with regard to unfolding events in the Middle East that could develop into hot confrontations between Russian and US forces, or maybe third countries: Syria, Yemen, Iran, Lebanon?
We shall see.
Merry Christmas Mark and all commentors!
I like your two speculative theories about what the plane and its occupants might have been here for.
My question is who and what level diplomat would Russia have sent? Lavrov was elsewhere during this time?
The confusing optics are puzzling. No way I see Putin trying to “cut a deal” when he’s holding four aces. I might lean a little toward a face to face warning to these idiots in DC, but Putin would be aware of the optics as well, so hard to see him taking this route. As I said, puzzling. Not so puzzling is the NYT drivel, more neocon backed gaslighting.
In spite of everything going on, I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!