Palestine Update 10/17/23

The electrical shutdown in my area today turned out to be total dud—we didn’t even have to reset our clocks. OTOH, I had an enforced day off, and we spent the morning of a beautiful day at the Botanic Garden, so not all was lost.

The big headline story today is that Israel bombed a hospital in Gaza that was packed with panicked residents seeking safe shelter. Little did they know. The death count varies—as low as 300, as high as 900 are the numbers I’ve seen. Here’s a story that says 500:

Israel Blames Hamas For Hospital Massacre in Gaza

A Gaza City hospital packed with wounded Palestinians was bombed Tuesday, killing over 500 people. The Hamas-run Health Ministry claims an Israeli airstrike hit the hospital, but Israeli authorities deny responsibility, saying it was a misfired Hamas rocket.

The evidence Israel has that it was a Hamas rocket?

Israel’s Foreign Ministry released a video allegedly showing that an enemy rocket barrage was passing over the hospital toward Israel when the hospital was hit.

That’s really weak. The telling fact is, with years of Hamas rocket attacks, Hezbollah rocket attacks, on Israel, who ever heard of the weak rockets causing that much damage or that many casualties? Never. Remember those 40 beheaded babies?

Baron of the Taiga @baronitaigas

Something really, really does not add up here.

The largest death toll I could find in a single rocket attack against Israel (at least up to 2015) from Gaza was 8. Now they have rockets that can kill hundreds of people?

1:53 PM · Oct 17, 2023

Simplicius has one of his long, wide ranging, pieces today. It covers not only Palestine but Ukraine, too:

Israeli Conflict Takes Eschatological Turn + Ukraine War Updates

The discussion of Islamic eschatology is rather interesting, but something I’m not qualified to pass judgment on. Simplicius quotes from an article by Aleksandr Dugin. The major point—that anyone getting involved in this mess needs to understand what’s at stake for the peoples involved—seems valid to me. The discussion of eschatology, of course, is in the context of continual Jewish provocations against the Al Aqsa mosque:

Palestinians aim to ignite the eschatological sensitivity of Muslims – both the Shiites, who are always more attuned to this, and the Sunnis (as they too are not unfamiliar with the themes of the end of the world and the final battle). For Muslims, Israel and Zionism represent the Dajjal [comparable to the Antichrist in Christian tradition].

We will soon see how seriously this is taken. But in any case, it is clear that anyone who ignores eschatology will not understand modern geopolitics. And not just in the Middle East, although it is most evident there.

This is just the way things are. Carrier battle groups don’t deter the eschatological beliefs of either Jews or Muslims. Or Christians, for that matter. The inability of our rulers to wrap their heads around that is what people like Alistair Crooke term a “lack of empathy.” You can’t defuse a situation if you’re unable to get a “feel” for the worldview of the parties involved.

Of course, in this situation there’s the question of whether either party wants it to be defused. On the Israeli side there are at least some elements within the government that see this crisis as the opportunity to ethnically cleanse Gaza. Massive civilian casualties are simply a means to that end, for this element. On the other hand, the Israeli government is no necessarily united on this—there are seemingly reliable reports that the delay in Israel’s ground operation is due to divisions within the government:

There are other rumors that deep divisions remain within the Israeli cabinet about whether to proceed into the Gaza bloodbath or not:

🇮🇱🇵🇸⚡️Israel's Channel 13 reports disagreements in the cabinet over the ground operation in Gaza...

It was previously reported that the ground operation would start this evening.

These divisions may not arise from humanitarian considerations but simply from doubts as to the state of preparedness of the IDF:

And Seymour Hersh’s new piece apparently has more ‘insider sources’ telling him that IDF planners and commanders don’t trust their green conscript troops, and are worried about the assault.

The US government has its own doubts:

Bloomberg reports that the Biden administration fears Israel has no real plan and the conflict may spiral unpredictably.

The US is sending carrier battle groups, and at least some members of the Israeli government appear to be claiming that the US has pledged to attack Lebanon in the event of a wider war. That would appear to be a surefire recipe for unpredictable spiraling:

Royal Intel @RoyalIntel_

Ben Gvir: If our enemies intervene because of the war on Gaza, the United States will intervene and we will set Lebanon back 100 years.

10:47 AM · Oct 17, 2023

By the way, I highly recommend a reading of that linked article re Ben Gvir to get an idea of the kind of extremists Americans are associating themselves with. American association with people like Ben Gvir is undoubtedly part of the reason that US attempts at “diplomacy” are being met with stinging rebuffs—in KSA, where Blinken was kept waiting overnight for a previously scheduled meeting, in Egypt, and now in Palestine, where Mahmoud Abbas has refused to meet with Zhou. The US is increasingly isolated.

But why would foreign heads of state waste their time in such meetings, when the US seems to lack a plan of their own? That’s actually the best case scenario. A worse case would be that the Neocons are actively supporting an intensified war. Thus:

Stunning State Department Memo Warns Diplomats: No Gaza 'De-Escalation' Talk

As Israel escalates its offensive, U.S. diplomats are being discouraged from publicly using three phrases that would urge calm.

As Israel escalates its attacks on Gaza, the State Department is discouraging diplomats working on Middle East issues from making public statements suggesting the U.S. wants to see less violence, according to internal emails viewed by HuffPost.

In messages circulated on Friday, State Department staff wrote that high-level officials do not want press materials to include three specific phrases: “de-escalation/ceasefire,” “end to violence/bloodshed” and “restoring calm.”

…

When reached for comment on the directive, a State Department official said they would not comment on internal communications.

No clarification? Why would foreign heads of state who are working to broker and end to the escalating bloodshed waste their time talking with an America that bans mentioning the bloodshed? Don’t mention the war! when we’re in the middle of one. Doesn’t seem like America makes a constructive partner in negotiations. And so we’re getting doors slammed in our faces. This won’t be forgotten by the rest of the world, but the Neocons don’t seem to care.