On To Phase 2
That’s the message that the Russian military put out today. I apologize for mostly just pasting in the work of others, but there is matter out there that needs to be collated.
First, Polina Ivanova is the FT correspondent for Russia. Here twitter account is available, but you’ll find that her closing link won’t work—because someone doesn’t want you reading it. What’s interesting here is the apparent frankness. The RF military is basically stating the first phase was to degrade Ukraine’s ability to support its forces in the east—which Tom Luongo (linked below) maintains were poised to launch a blitzkrieg against the Donbas. Now, with Ukraine unable to conduct any sort of offensive operations, Phase 2 begins. What that means is that Russia considers that the UKR forces in the east are either encircled or will imminently be encircled. Those forces will then be addressed with heavy bombardment:
Russia's military held a big briefing this afternoon, announcing the war was entering a 'second phase'.
Here's a summary of how Russia, at this point in the war, is depicting what it set out to do, why, and where we're at. (relaying their words, pls don't shoot msnger)
Firstly, the generals said Russia had always intended only to 'liberate' the Donbas, that was what it set out to do. It had two options: fight a war in the east, but allow Kyiv to replenish its forces, or start off by knocking out Ukrainian military capacities across the country.
Over a month of war, Russia has knocked out most of Ukraine's military capacities, the generals claimed, so can now move on to next phase, which will only be focused on the east, which could involve heavy bombardment.
Russia had never intended to capture Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, the generals said - these are not setbacks in other words, it's all part of the plan. And the plan was to distract Ukrainian forces while Russia/ Donetsk/ Luhansk made territorial gains in the east.
Numerous statements made about not targeting civilian infrastructure, avoiding civilian casualties.
Defence ministry briefing also shared a new official figure for the number of Russian soldiers killed, the second statement by Russian side during the course of this war. Said 1,351 were killed - figure is far below Ukrainian and international estimates.
Here's the full english text of the briefing per military's translation just now eng.mil.ru/en/special_ope…
• • •
Next, Tom Luongo’s analysis, which I find largely brilliant in sketching out the big picture. It comes in two forms.
First, Luongo’s post today: NATO and Russia — Whistling Past Each Other’s Graveyards. Before getting to that, two tweets that play into the idea of an EU graveyard:
In the meantime, Germany, your choice is: Rubles or Gold.
So, Luongo. This is a generous excerpt but, trust me, there’s plenty more meat at the link:
This conflict between West and East is a civilizational one ...
This is key. Anyone who has paid attention to what Putin has been saying for the last twenty years should understand this. We see a microcosm of the global civilizational war right here in the US. We call it the Culture War, and Putin is fully aware of it, as well. The very fact that Putin has mandated the teaching of Solzhenitsyn in all Russian schools tells you that he understands this war as civilizational at its very heart, in ways similar to what Dostoevsky saw. You don’t have to endorse the vision of those authors in their totality to realize that Putin has a very valid point.
The fault for this [East - West] gap lies wholly with NATO and the West who have steadily advanced until they reached the Russian border at the Donbass. ...
Please read this next paragraph carefully. Luongo is absolutely correct—this is the point I try to make almost every day. The war on Russia cannot be separated from the war of the Globalists on their subject populations in the West. It’s all tied together:
[Those who support Ukraine] are not supporting the right to self-determination by a people acting freely here. Ukraine is a puppet state crucial to an aggressive war of conquest by the very people who brought you two years of privation and humiliation over COVID and now want to farm you as tax cattle while living in an unescapable Orwellian Panopticon.
Russia’s list of grievances are as long as any bill that passes through a Congressional committee these days. But the big ones have been the attempts on flipping Belarus and Kazakhstan. These two pivotal countries were victims of failed revolutions to overthrow the governments there and install NATO-controlled puppets, trying to replicate the ‘victory’ in Ukraine in 2014.
That can only lead to the conclusion I have made multiple times. This war was chosen by the West. It was designed this way. All “attempts” at diplomacy by NATO, the UK, France and the US were simply nothing more than time-buying exercises to build up Ukraine’s strength to launch a blitz of the Donbass and sanction Russia for even responding.
Why? Well, frankly, to win and subjugate Russia to our oligarchic system of control, c.f. that Orwellian Panopticon I just mentioned. ...
When Putin ordered a massive multi-front invasion he was simply pre-empting an attack that was coming.
The sanctions packages implemented since then were already prepared. They were happening no matter what move Putin made. ...
Putin made that point expressly: You will sanction us no matter what. Therefore Russia will take the action that it deems necessary for its continued existence as a nation and a civilization.
NATO chose the place. Putin chose the time. Everything else is chatter and noise.
So where are we today?
Luongo’s analysis mirrors that of the RF military:
Putin and Russia are methodically turning Ukraine into a meat grinder with a 1000 mile front the UAF cannot possibly keep supplied. The initial attack by Russia was designed to knock out logistics behind UAF lines and make it all but impossible for the cells of Ukrainian forces to support each other without ceding large amounts of territory, if they could even get out from under Russian fire control.
…, now the real war for the future of humanity begins at the legal and financial level.
Russia has made many smart moves in shoring up its financial position. It kept the gas flowing to Europe to leave the communications lines open there. But since the EU are not reliable actors Russia put them on the published ‘unfriendly list’ of countries that now are allowed to pay for their Russian exports in either rubles (announced by Putin earlier this week) or gold (announced yesterday).
... The sanctions will stay in place until there is a full political revolution on either side.￼
My bet is on that happening in the West since it is psychologically and culturally far weaker.
We see evidence of this every day—the same evidence that Putin himself has also cited: epitomized by the “gender” madness we see everywhere. That is psychological and cultural madness. It cannot win.
Davos is intentionally, through Biden, Blinken and NATO, trying to destroy the world economy so no one needs Russian energy while killing off millions more useless eaters.
The Russians responded with: We take gold or rubles for wheat and gas, ...
Then I read on Zerohedge that the Russians are so thoroughly tired of listening to lying US officials that they aren’t even taking calls on their ‘deconfliction hot lines’ between senior military staff. ...
The only ones sleepwalking into a NATO/Russia war will be the Neocons who still think some logistics failures around Kharkov and Kiev equal a Russian military weak enough to force into submission. Very soon, Davos will come to the realization they can’t win a war against a united Global South intent on de-dollarizing and repricing their trade in real gold, not their paper, and real barrels of oil.
Then they’ll want to talk.
Another way to get Luongo’s views is to listen to a Jim Kunstler podcast—Tom Luongo Lays It All Out. The entire podcast between these two is just over an hour long. However, if you jump to about the 40 minute mark you’ll get a slightly different version of the above, as well as Luongo’s ruminations on Election 2022. In that regard he speaks in a somewhat optimistic vein, even suggesting an impeachment. For my part, I’d like to believe it but I think the rot has gone too deep. Impeachment may not be radical enough.
Finally, it’s time to ‘fess up. I was wrong. I thought that Poland had wised up to being played as a pawn by the US and Davos. I was wrong. It’s hard to believe the foolishness that the Polish regime is engaging in:
Here’s the ten point plan:
1) Cut off all Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment system.
2) Put in place a common asylum policy for Russian soldiers who refuse to serve the criminal regime in Moscow.
3) Completely stop Russian propaganda in Europe. Freedom of speech does not mean the right to lie.
4) Block Russian ships from our ports.
5) The same blockade must be put in place for road transport in and out of Russia.
6) Impose sanctions not only on oligarchs but on their entire business environment.
7) Suspend visas for all Russian citizens who want to enter the EU.
8) Impose sanctions on all members of Putin’s party, United Russia.
9) Put in place a total ban on the export to Russia of technologies that can be used for war.
10) Exclude Russia from all international organizations. We cannot sit at the same table as criminals.
Trying to redo history from 1920 on is just a bad idea. Especially when you’re doing it for the civilizational monsters of Globalism. That’s not the way forward. Orban of Hungary knows that.
I've been following MiH for a year or two now and have found the information to be really useful and trustworthy.
I have a good friend who watches a lot of Fox News who says that Mariupol was about 80% devastated by Putin. He said he saw drone footage of the devastation. This seems to be in contrast to what others here (and other places) indicate regarding the Russians trying to avoid damaging much of the cities and infrastructure.
Does anyone here know whether this information about Mariupol is correct and could point me to news links about it?
Great job, Mark. Luongo and Kunstler are top guys on this all this.