North - South?

Danny Davis had Patrick Henningsen on his show today, and toward the end they had an interesting exchange of a sociological nature. It had to do with attitudes in Europe toward the Jewish Nationalist genocide against Palestinians.

Russia's Big & Bigger Attacks on Ukraine /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Patrick Henningsen

DD: Before I let you go today, I want to shift gears real quick to the Middle East. I'm going to be sticking with Europe, though, to get there. I just did say something about Macron and how he wants to keep the Russia Ukraine war. He made an address before the British Parliament in which he actually said something that I agreed with.

Macron: I believe in the future of the two-state solution as a basis for regional security architecture which will enable Israel to live in peace and security alongside its neighbors. But I want to be clear. Calling today for a ceasefire in Gaza without any condition is just telling to the rest of the world that for us as Europeans there is no double standard. And as we are attached to human lives, as we are attached to territorial integrity, we want this ceasefire, no discussion. And today, working together in order to recognize the state of Palestine and to initiate this political momentum is the only path to peace. [Loud applause]

DD: A lot of applause there, and certainly I agree with that. An immediate ceasefire in Gaza and then recognition of a Palestinian state--that would be great. But Patrick, where are any actions behind his words?

Patrick: That's the problem, Daniel. It's a great speech, but that was the position of European countries--including the UK, before October 7th--that they were committed to working towards a Palestinian state. Previous UK governments as well as European governments. Macron's come, I think, politically made that grand speech and will get some support for it. But then he could turn around. He did this just a couple of months ago. Did a quick U-turn backing Netanyahu, inviting some of these people like Jolani for state visits in Paris--the former, founder of al-Qaeda in Syria. So, it's hard to get a read on what Macron's doing. I think he is also in a very precarious position domestically, politically, hugely unpopular, and there's a big, big Palestinian support base in France, as well. And you're starting to see in Spain--it's having a major effect on government policy right now, and that's going to happen throughout Europe.

So I think Macron very cleverly and cynically is positioning himself a little bit to look like he's on the right side of this issue, because it seems like the wind in Europe is blowing in that direction right now. But as I said, Daniel, that was the policy of all these countries for a long time. But they abandoned that after October 7th and were all in for Israel and allowed Israel to get to the point it is now, which is a dire situation. And the question is, what will Macron announce--sanctions against Israel? So again, he's playing that same type of conversation [like Trump] where, 'Oh, we're just a disinterested observer here. We'd like to see peace. We'd like to see a ceasefire,' but he is providing material support and political cover for Israel, who according to Europe's own institutions like the International Courts of Justice and the ICC--of which France is a signatory, too--are guilty or at least indicted for war crimes and what is a considered a plausible case for genocide, where they censured Israel to have a prohibition on the types of things they're doing, like laying siege to Gaza, targeting civilians and so forth. And they're all in violation of the international arms control international treaties. You can't supply any weapons or anything to anybody that's suspected of being involved in human rights abuses or targeting civilians with military, and yet they're all still supporting Israel. So I want to see those announcements, like, 'No, that's it! Sanctions, embargo.’ Then we'll know they're serious. As yet, I don't see it.

DD: So, as far as you understand Europe at large, is there even the possibility that populations would support any of their leaders doing exactly what you suggest and putting some teeth behind the words, finally, and saying, "No, there's going to there's going to be an economic cost to Israel," because obviously the counterbalance to that is the pro-Israeli supporters all throughout the Western world that are putting a lot of money and pressure on any politician to do anything besides, maybe, allow them, like this [Macron], to have a word, but when it comes to actions they will viciously oppose them. Is there any chance of that happening now?

Patrick: In some countries there is. I think in Spain. Absolutely in Spain. Anti-war sentiment is growing in Spain, such that the people are mobilizing now to protest against Spain pursuing a 5% spending commitment for NATO. And so Trump has reciprocated with threats of tariffs on Spain if they don't spend the money. I mean, total attack on their sovereignty. Greece as well. You're starting to see an anti- Israeli kind of uprising a little bit in terms of public opinion in Greece, and some other countries as well. Italy absolutely. There's a big difference between southern and northern Europe on the mobilizing on that issue. And I think historically that's the case, especially former countries with a real socialist and trade unionist pedigree into the late 20th century. These are still passionate issues for the left in those countries. So that can't be ignored.

In northern Europe it's different. I think I think they've been compromised and, maybe, more propagandized, and I think maybe a change of leadership in Brussels might somehow shift some of that a little bit. But the level of Israel penetration in Northern Europe in terms of The [Jewish Nationalist] Lobby and its alignment with right-wing political parties--getting AFD on side with Israel, Victor Orban in Hungary, and in the UK. Keir Starmer--as a labor leader you've never seen a labor leader in history kowtowing to Israel in the way that this government has. It's just, it was unheard of before. I mean, even with Tony Blair the two-state solution was kind of a red line, but with Starmer, it's basically: Israel gets what it wants with no conditions whatsoever. And that's been the position, especially since October 7th or since he's come into office. And the results have been just spectacularly horrific as a result. So, I don't know. There is definitely a north - south divide on that issue with Europe.

I dunno. Henningsen sees the North - South divide as a political one—socialism vs. well, whatever. To me the obvious cultural aspect of the divide is religious: Catholic/Orthodox (South and East) vs. Protestant (North), mirroring to a great degree the boundaries of the Roman Empire. But is Henningsen right in what he sees? Here’s a nice breakdown of world opinion on the issue:

While favorability in Europe as regards Israel is generally low as an aggregate, at a glance the sharp divide appears to me to be between countries in which “very unfavorable” is a larger percentage than “somewhat unfavorable”—and the reverse. If we use that as the measure, Henningsen is certain correct in his perception of public opinion in Spain, Greece, and Italy. On the other hand, we have Netherlands and Sweden in the same group—with Netherlands leading the pack. It’s not immediately apparent what these five countries have in common as compared with … Germany, France, Poland, UK, Hungary. So I can only conclude that the whole issue is, well, complicated.

I wasn’t able to come up with comparable stats for the US on a state by state basis. What I decided to do was substitute Trump approval as a very rough proxy stat—given that Trump self identifies with “whatever Jewish Nationalists want 24/7 as long as they keep funding me”. That leads to a somewhat rough approximation of a North - South divide—as rough as the European version. In this case we have a map—green = approve:

You might see this as a cultural divide, but it’s not really that simple. For example, Catholic Hispanics are a large portion of several states—CA, AZ, NM, FL—but it’s hard to see a clear pattern. LA is also heavily Catholic, but I’m not sure how that sorts out politically—I don’t perceive LA as tending socialist. Northern states with large Catholic populations clearly trend pink, and in that case there may be leftover unionist sympathy. On the other hand, there does appear to be a pretty strong correlation with heavily Evangelical states, and especially those with large Southern Baptist communities. Granted, the pink states do—as a generalization—fall within a Leftist tilt, but we don’t know how this sorts out as pure anti-Trumpism vs. giving a sh*t about genocide. Go figure. Every time you try to generalize, exceptions pop up.

I had another bright idea, based on reading this morning. I saw that Trump and the Senate GOP are raking in record amounts of money—I mean, busting through all past levels. What could possibly account for this? I’m guessing it’s overall bad news for conservatives—any senators regarded as even remotely harboring doubts about the beautifulness of genocide will be weeded out:

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