Two days ago Sen. Josh Hawley gave a speech in which he made some good points about our terribly flawed foreign policy. You can read the entirety of his speech here: Hawley Delivers National Security Speech ‘China and Ukraine: A Time for Truth’ Thursday, February 16, 2023
In other words, how dare China behave like us! As for Chinese warships and subs popping up off Hawaii, California or - the horror! - the South China Sea. If they stay outside territorial limits, they have a perfect right to do this. When I was in the UK Navy (yeah, we actually had one back then!), we regularly patrolled in the Baltic and into Russia's backyard. As for Hawley, his speech is yet more proof that we have no friends in DC. Sure, MTG bloviates on and makes good copy with her rants, and Ted Cruz is always about to do something terrible to the DS, but there are no voices there speaking for the interests of the US people. And you are right, Mark. The neocons and neither political party has any idea that Russia and China have each others' backs. That's why Russia can never lose in the Ukraine and why the US will never beat China. We pushed the world's greatest provider of raw materials directly into the arms of the world's hungriest economy. There is no "foreign policy" there at all - just a series of atavistic neocon urges and hatreds.
Hawley is speaking about politically acceptable topics, which includes China.
In a perfect world Taiwan would be independent. To keep their current status Taiwan really needs to get its act together defense wise. The US is a flaky, non dependable defense partner. Taiwan’s goal should be more like Israel and Switzerland with their reserves. Unfortunately Taiwan is depending on the US, and has some major culture / nationalism issues. They are a very vibrant, exhilarating Democracy, but lots of cultural similarities to Japan that occupied them for over 50 years. Very strict gun control.
For example - They banned plastic straws! Which everyone ignores, being a boba paradise. And they are fanatics on getting boostered. And only the green supporters are into defending against China, yet they distrust the military the most. Hong King was a huge wake up call, plus all the lies by China on Covid, and the repeated flight by China into Taiwans airspace.
I wish Hawley would talk about US Corruption!
I was shocked on Feinstein’s corruption. I knew it bad.
In a perfect world, China and Taiwan would have a peaceful symbiotic relationship. However, the reality is that the CCP cannot stomach a non-communist part of China not only surviving but thriving. They might have managed to swallow their pride and accept the status quo if America hadn't started pushing their buttons with their stupid visits by fools like Pelosi.
China uses Taiwan as a useful symbol to unite China to avenge the Western / Japanese bullying / taking advantage from the opium wars to the Revolution (that restored China’s pride). That’s the official narrative.
What is considered part of China is a bit, umm elastic. Is is any area once part of China? Or contains ethnic Chinese? port Arthur, Siberia, South China Sea, Vietnam, Korea, Mongolia, various khans come to mind. Tibet was conquered fair and square and is being colonized. The actions against the Uigars are another example of how ethnic Han centrist China is.
Josh the dragon slayer! My goodness there are lots of fools holding elected office in the US of A. Some of them are fools all of the time, all of them are fools some of the time. America will be forced to get real and become a normal nation, a nation that first and foremost minds her own business. Painful realignment of priorities is going to happen soon, would have happened already if not for delaying tactics that cannot be maintained for much longer.
It took Rome several centuries (one could say millennia) to go from a Republic to an Empire to a failed Imperialist society. The USA seems to have accomplished the same in just 2 centuries. I wonder if the migration of decent folk into Red states will make for a similar, split country with the more reasonable (Eastern Orthodox Rome/Red Conservative State) side surviving much longer. Kurt Schlichter wrote a series of fiction set in that frame-work. Chilling. Best at you, S'21! (WRH)
I wish all the commenters would stop being Nationalists. I mean come on.
Everyone at the Munich Conference thinks otherwise. Aren't they the wise ones? Take for example the German Foreign Minister today suggesting "If Putin doesn't change direction 360 degrees, then..."
Russia's Medvedev's response "It's still fun that Europe is ruled by such ignorant people".
Simplicius just posted "SITREP: Update 2/18 - Major War Confirmed Imminent'. Typically long so I'm getting into it now. As always Mark, thanks for this oasis of truth and discourse. (WRH)
" according to Hawley, is that the Chinese are bad actors bent on world domination. We were never going to be able to make them be like us'
Nixon in his 1978 book, "The Real War" pointed this out. He said China will never be our ally.....but they can be a neighbor. They crave our Capitol, use it as a carrot on a stick, lower for good behavior, higher if bad. Bill Clinton gave them the carrot the stick and the string and we got the shaft while he got rich. Now can we get FACTS like this into the history books?
Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy resets the physical readiness failures for blue jackets to keep as many in uniform as possible due to the current recruiting quagmire. The real alarm bells will start ringing when the sea/shore rotation is changed just to keep combatants and their logistical support vessels at sea. That'll be a real morale boost...
Look on the positive side, DJL. Those ships won't need to take on so much ballast! In my Navy time, there was only one fat guy on our ship, and he was a cook. He made the best bacon and eggs in the fleet, so we let him live.
An idiotic idea. The scandal we should be concerned about is how weak, badly led, and ill-equipped the US military is. We can't take on Russia OR China much less the old fantasy defense objectives of a two front war.
Will our moronic politicians and MICs make outrageous statements? That's the only kind they make. American elites are uneducated arrogant bullies. The only color revolution they are now capable of is here at home against the American people. The Ukrainian fiasco the Jukrainian neocons have pushed us into is the last gasp of the Pox America visited upon the world since the collapse of the USSR. Hungary can now afford to laugh at the delusions of horseface Samantha Power and her queer Ambassador.
China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. It's already a province of China and that is recognized by the State Department . China will take on Taiwan with its acquiescence when it is damned well ready. And we can't do a damned thing about it.
Hey TL, I'll suggest it's not the dirt they'd be after but the Chip manufacturing. I think it's in the range of 95% of small, high-speed chips are manufactured there... those ones that make all the electronic goodies work so very well. If we (USA) want to truly protect our interests, we'd be moving the fab-plant machinery stateside. Granted, there's a couple plants in construction, I believe eventually those machines will be moved to them. Problem is, the Chinese can't make those chips and they know they're absolutely necessary - from Iphones to military specialty equipment. My opinion is that's the prize and while Ukraine goes on, it'll be when the CCP thinks they'll lose those fab plants. May be that's why those machines aren't being moved: might be the trigger for what our armed forces can not handle. Best to you sir! (WRH)
Dear WRH - the shift is already well underway: TSMC (the major semiconductor powerhouse from Taiwan) is already constructing *two* large leading edge chip fabrication plants in Phoenix AZ; Intel has a large and quickly expanding footprint (many chip fab modules already) in Phoenix with an enormous facility planned and in works now for Ohio; Samsung has a chip factory in Texas and is also growing there. Easier and net net cost effective to not move machinery of that type, but to just build anew. Most chips used in the world are "legacy" (older) technology nodes (bigger feature sizes). The advanced stuff is largely for cell phones, graphics cards, personal and business computing and is dwarfed by other chip products in sheer number of parts.
Mainland China has struggled mightily (>15 yrs) with getting the hang of advanced chip making - the key issue is the innovation that comes from freedom of thought and business maneuver. A take-over of Taiwan would have surprising unintended consequences, to be sure
Good info Bruce, thank you! I think a specific, important point is the sub-10nm chip manufacturing really only resides successfully (thus far) with TSMC in Taiwan. While the obvious benefactor we all know is our Cell phones, the Military applications are huge. China gets over 60% of TSMC products: altho' I've not seen recent numbers and specifically if the 3&2nm chips are going there. I mentioned Intel - they have not been able to do well in the sub-10nm chip arena. Minor aside, I was part of the construction of 2 Intel fab plants (Hillsboro, Oregon) altho' not the techy part... 38,000 tons of rebar hauled there... however that gives me no knowledge of current tech successes.
I do look forward to such manufacturing being stateside: jobs and so forth benefit especially. The machinery aspect I mentioned is because of this being commercial, proprietary tech owned by TSMC along with the ability to reproduce the machines capable to manufacture those chips being quite difficult. Granted, moving is expensive but moving proven equipment has it's perks.
Thanks for the discourse and info. I enjoy learning here in "Marks World"! (WRH)
Yes. Good example of why this scare talk by Hawley--big turnoff for me with regard to his basic integrity--that China will imminently "invade" Taiwan (which the US recognizes as part of China) and then sail their fleet to CA and the Gulf of Mexico is beyond despicable hysteria mongering: it's also an insult to anyone with an IQ above room temp. I'm all for America taking control of its own tech and critical manufacturing needs to the extent possible. There's no reason why that should involve starting wars around the world or even continual war mongering talk for domestic political purposes.
Joseph's comment below reminds me of what our Founding Fathers attempted to make part of this country's basic tenants of -forgive my paraphrase attempting brevity here- minding our own damn business. There have been times our call to arms to assist others can be seen as necessary- I don't mean to declare that the US should be an absolute separatist state. *However, between Neocons and their ilk and what best I can frame Senator Hawley's speech representing of a Neo-Neocon opposition, peace is not a primary consideration. Why are we so imperialistic, to use Mark's suggestion, to operate on the 'world-cop' pretense?
I'll submit, our leaning into conflict while off-shoring the very core of our past strength (manufacturing in particular) has reduced our ability to even protect our own citizenry. How many feel it's a good idea to go for a walk in your local, larger-city downtown regions after dark? With due care, of course, not to cross into the wrong neighborhood or to be out too late we enjoy some marginal freedoms other parts of the world would be pleased with. A simple fact is we need to come back home, work on our own country's ills (yeah, from the borders to inner-cities, there's a lot to be addressed) while bringing back some pretty basic, yet really, really important stuff like, how about Medicines? And safe Streets? And true, originalist law enforcement whilst eliminating the fascist -yes I think the appropriate word- Alphabet organizations that have been usurped as Stalinist-like agents of the democrat party? The need for a CIA may have existed in the Cold War era; how so today? Our FBI has lost it's way (sorry Mark, not intentionally personal). Our military, for goodness sakes, is a Woke force to be reckoned with! Those enemy country Social-Justice-Warriors don't stand a chance with our amazing, but wasted, technology and war-making machine-stuff. Sorry if we can't recruit volunteer members anymore, but the war we can fight and win won't happen anyways.
How can it happen that we might return to those old-fashioned Constitutional Government roots? Where are the statesmen? (sorry, States[gender-fluid pronoun goes here]). Nuclear fallout won't check those zir/it pronouns before wrecking it's destruction on you. And, for whatever reason, that remains all too possible an outcome with our War-Making orientation of leadership.
I saw Shryver's Tweet last night & was wondering what it was about. With your clarification, Mark, worse than I could've imagined. Hawley is off his rocker! When do elected officials think about taking care of USA?
There's a lot of issues that do not make prima facie sense in this war. Can someone shed light on why the Ukraine leadership continues to pour soldiers into what evidently will become untenable positions? Even against the supposed advice of the US. Does Z think that the more men die, the more pressure there is on NATO to join in? The Russian forces demonstrated the practicality of withdrawing in order to live to fight another day. This strategy passed down from Z, if you can call it that, is so bad that the Ukrainians, or so it is reported, are grabbing men off the streets to throw them into the meat grinder. Why would the collective West continue to support such a mad regime? Do really they want to annihilate the Ukrainians? The big offensive hasn't started yet. Absolute folly.
The Ukrainians are cannon fodder for the Neocons. The goal is not for Ukraine to win and be a strong independent nation--they want Ukraine to be absolutely under Neocon thumbs. The goal for now is to harm Russia by inflicting heavy losses. At that point Russia can be dismembered, but Ukraine will simply be another dismembered part of what used to be imperial Russia and the Soviet Union.
It's a question I've wondered about, too. They have struck at such shipments closer to the front lines, but not deep in the rear. Various rationales have been offered--such as avoiding civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Also because while the SMO was in effect, the idea was of limited military action. This is a big concern going into what's being predicted--the Big Offensive. Will Russia target NATO directly? Say, AWACS planes, command and control in Poland? Only time will tell. Putin make his big speech Tues or Wed, I believe.
Apparently Russian flights, deep into Ukraine, are becoming possible. Their slow, Soviet-style artillery war is present focus, I think, but they're not standing still, air assault wise. Biden promised more Anti-Air equipment today (Monday) likely because of all the other stuff failing. AWAC issue: Russia has counters to that coming if not already happening.
Steve, I take your point about some of Hawley's better actions. However, if you are in Beijing right now, you aren't going to see this as anything other as another sabre-rattling speech against the CCP. I'm not sure if that is going to head off the war-mongers.
Mark's cool and objective analysis brings out the best in commentators. We're privileged to have him! As for the US, as a Brit, I still have tremendous admiration for the traditional American character. You seem to have a zip and a zest that we tired Euros lost a long time ago. Like most of my generation, I grew up on a diet of American westerns and pop culture, good and bad. It has always had a special place for me. However, I still don't think that it can survive in its current form. I'd be very happy to be proven wrong on this by you American commentators on the blog, but I see some kind of breakup as the only solution. This will be messy and probably violent, but it might lead to something better than what we have now. What is for sure, there is no solution coming from DC or a Man on A White Horse. Now have at me, you damned colonials, and show me where I'm wrong! :)
Hi Steghorn21 - my experience with tech business in the UK and EU leads me to a mild contrarian comment = I see enormous zest zip and creative innovation in that demographic. The politics/diplomacy may be shaggy (and the USA is - other than under PDJT - better?), but the zeitgeist on the street seems to this observer to be robust
I think the Book of Revelation is probably spot on. However, no-one knows for sure. I feel that many Christians read it and then become very fatalistic. What's the point of fighting if it's all determined beforehand? We need to keep fighting even if we lose.
I want to second your appreciation for Mr. Waulk, the commentators and yourself as well. So what is there for me to add? Only what President Trump said in January, 2020. We no longer have a country. I have a very low opinion of FDR as a President and a person, but he had his fireside chats. Hollywood and the media were our friends, and inspired us during the War. Now they and the government have lost the public trust.
Habeas corpus originated in English law in 1166, and I have never heard of anybody in America being held without charges and not having the right to a speedy trial until just recently. Our Fourth Amendment guarantees against uinjustified searches and siezures, and now not even a former President and his wife have this protection. Lawyer-client sonfidentiality, and even Grand Jury confidentiality no longer exists, to the extent that when records are obtained they will be published in the morning papers. But have no fear, if someone has illegally abused the public trust or committed a crtime that benefits the ruling class, they will face no prosecution and even be rewarded.
Our government no longer protects us and our property, and will not allow us to do so. An elderly rancher is not allowed to take care of his elderly wife due to excessive bail while being held on suspicion of having killed an illegal, while armed robbers in our cities are daily being released without bail. It would seem that our government is determined to rule by intimidation. The point I am making is that it is not only the corruption , the incompetence and the utter failure of our present government in so many respects, and there are those that might ague otherwise, but the undeniable fact that for many and maybe most Americans the biggest crisis is the crisis of confidence we now have in our government, and even the rule of law.
Hello perle (I'll go all WRH [🙂] on you and note that is a marvelous and intriguing handle) - hoosanas on appreciation for Mr Wauck's blog environment. On adding two more cents to the dialogue, I'll offer two comments. It appears our USA military has been signalling for months lowered expectations on kinetic involvement in a PRC-Taiwan fight (and I just don't see the upside for PRC taking that step); I don't see Zhou or Turtle or Thoroughly-Modern-Miley (hat tip to Mark Steyn) going that route. The other comment is a prediction on the coming European humiliation coming to the USA. The Ukraine war will resolve along Russian terms and the USA will be (rightly) the article tossed under the bus. EU will turn to Russia, will re-think NATO engagement, and except for the UK, solidly put distance between themselves and the USA. Watch the turn solidify as Russia offers to help the EU with their immigration problems.
We might to agree with people like FDR, Kennedy, or Carter, but I have the feeling that these guys at least loved their country. Obama, Biden? They only love themselves and their bank balances.
Hawley reminds me of a political version of Victor Davis Hanson: a fundamentally decent human being who, as Mark says above, hasn't quite grasped the new zeitgeist. He's still a bit of a citnav who thinks that if we read the Constitution very slowly to the leftists and globalists, they'll all calm down.
Reviewing all this I was struck how today's 'leadership' fails not just to understand President Reagan' "Peace Through Strength" but does not possess, that is -totally fails to understand- the fundamental Truth that a warrior trains hard, works to strengthen them self, prepares intently and intentionally - not TO kill - but so we might not have to. There seems a serious disconnect therein with our military leadership of today (*post Obama Purge not coincidental) and the abject lack of experience/skill/leadership of our current presidential administration. The insanity of World Group-think' draws them right in. Make having Russia be 'Enemy #1' a requirement to excuse the whole cabal; Military/Industrial complex through stupid power-mad leadership. Who then use human citizens as fodder to operate and execute their mad schemes. Best at ya Steghorn21! (WRH)
Hey Pete, I suggest that how Hong Kong has worked out will diminish any yearnings of reunification from within Taiwan.
There's a huge reason you hear from biden "We're fighting for Democracy" - be it for Ukraine or against those represented by the J6 insurrectionists... once tasted, anything other than freedom is a most bitter pill. Such a cry 'to remain free' is fairly common amongst those of us who regret where THIS country's 'democracy' sits: the biden siren-call is an obvious diversion but such words will incite many to agree with the declarant. G'day sir! (WRH)
Except for a rather small, if important fact; 3nm (let alone 2nm) chips are not being successfully produced commercially, excepting in Taiwan. Very limited inroads are being made, however Intel is suffering significant manufacturing issues and massive producer NVidia uses, yep, TSMC 3 and 2 nm chips for their products.
I agree with you that such manufacturing needs be done stateside. I believe those valuable processes were to be brought into Arizona, significantly by moving the existing equipment from Taiwan.
I know not what CCP will do, of course. However, if Russia decides to take down satellites, which the US will respond to by doing the same to theirs, China will be extremely leveraged to either take over the Taiwan plants, or even in destroying them will have their existing satellite fleet with Russian and US replacements very slow occurring and difficult to get orbiting.
My own conclusions are fairly lacking, however what's apparently being proven is the USA's inability to truly, effectively fight China - particularly if we remain in Ukraine with NATO. I enjoy our discussions-thanks! (WRH)
Dear WRH - ummm, nah, the semiconductor ecosystem is truly world-wide and has lots of moving parts. Your points on advanced semiconductor process nodes are 'over-weight'. A take over would absolutely cause a noticeably major set of disruptions, but believe you me, serious companies using/making/supporting these components do think through recovery/adjust scenarios = if covid has taught that ecosystem anything, it is how to adjust. Bottom line, absolutely not something for the USA to get into a shooting war over, the good Senator is not offering a helpful narrative.
In other words, how dare China behave like us! As for Chinese warships and subs popping up off Hawaii, California or - the horror! - the South China Sea. If they stay outside territorial limits, they have a perfect right to do this. When I was in the UK Navy (yeah, we actually had one back then!), we regularly patrolled in the Baltic and into Russia's backyard. As for Hawley, his speech is yet more proof that we have no friends in DC. Sure, MTG bloviates on and makes good copy with her rants, and Ted Cruz is always about to do something terrible to the DS, but there are no voices there speaking for the interests of the US people. And you are right, Mark. The neocons and neither political party has any idea that Russia and China have each others' backs. That's why Russia can never lose in the Ukraine and why the US will never beat China. We pushed the world's greatest provider of raw materials directly into the arms of the world's hungriest economy. There is no "foreign policy" there at all - just a series of atavistic neocon urges and hatreds.
Hawley is speaking about politically acceptable topics, which includes China.
In a perfect world Taiwan would be independent. To keep their current status Taiwan really needs to get its act together defense wise. The US is a flaky, non dependable defense partner. Taiwan’s goal should be more like Israel and Switzerland with their reserves. Unfortunately Taiwan is depending on the US, and has some major culture / nationalism issues. They are a very vibrant, exhilarating Democracy, but lots of cultural similarities to Japan that occupied them for over 50 years. Very strict gun control.
For example - They banned plastic straws! Which everyone ignores, being a boba paradise. And they are fanatics on getting boostered. And only the green supporters are into defending against China, yet they distrust the military the most. Hong King was a huge wake up call, plus all the lies by China on Covid, and the repeated flight by China into Taiwans airspace.
I wish Hawley would talk about US Corruption!
I was shocked on Feinstein’s corruption. I knew it bad.
https://twitter.com/bronzeagemantis/status/1025441731083468801?cxt=HHwWgoC88cj0jLscAAAA
And the $140 million Saudi Biden’s brother deal?
https://nypost.com/2023/02/15/bidens-brother-denies-being-hired-to-broker-secret-140m-saudi-deal/
Or Hunter’s Intel connections:
https://jasonpowers.substack.com/p/hunter-biden-the-in-artful-dealmaker
I think I’m pretty cynical / jaded, but I keep on finding out I’m not cynical enough.
In a perfect world, China and Taiwan would have a peaceful symbiotic relationship. However, the reality is that the CCP cannot stomach a non-communist part of China not only surviving but thriving. They might have managed to swallow their pride and accept the status quo if America hadn't started pushing their buttons with their stupid visits by fools like Pelosi.
China uses Taiwan as a useful symbol to unite China to avenge the Western / Japanese bullying / taking advantage from the opium wars to the Revolution (that restored China’s pride). That’s the official narrative.
What is considered part of China is a bit, umm elastic. Is is any area once part of China? Or contains ethnic Chinese? port Arthur, Siberia, South China Sea, Vietnam, Korea, Mongolia, various khans come to mind. Tibet was conquered fair and square and is being colonized. The actions against the Uigars are another example of how ethnic Han centrist China is.
Josh the dragon slayer! My goodness there are lots of fools holding elected office in the US of A. Some of them are fools all of the time, all of them are fools some of the time. America will be forced to get real and become a normal nation, a nation that first and foremost minds her own business. Painful realignment of priorities is going to happen soon, would have happened already if not for delaying tactics that cannot be maintained for much longer.
Minding our own d@mn business has my vote. Thanks SCTexan! (WRH)
That's all we folks want, isn't it, Wayne? Just to be left alone by Big Government!
It took Rome several centuries (one could say millennia) to go from a Republic to an Empire to a failed Imperialist society. The USA seems to have accomplished the same in just 2 centuries. I wonder if the migration of decent folk into Red states will make for a similar, split country with the more reasonable (Eastern Orthodox Rome/Red Conservative State) side surviving much longer. Kurt Schlichter wrote a series of fiction set in that frame-work. Chilling. Best at you, S'21! (WRH)
I wish all the commenters would stop being Nationalists. I mean come on.
Everyone at the Munich Conference thinks otherwise. Aren't they the wise ones? Take for example the German Foreign Minister today suggesting "If Putin doesn't change direction 360 degrees, then..."
Russia's Medvedev's response "It's still fun that Europe is ruled by such ignorant people".
Medvedev is being nice, calling 'em ignorant, fools, what utter fools they are.
YOUR LAST SENTENCE HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD! LOVE YOUR TAKE ON OUR LIFE TODAY!!!
THANK YOU!
https://alt-market.us/what-happens-next-in-the-ukraine-proxy-war-a-new-russian-offensive-in-spring/
Simplicius just posted "SITREP: Update 2/18 - Major War Confirmed Imminent'. Typically long so I'm getting into it now. As always Mark, thanks for this oasis of truth and discourse. (WRH)
" according to Hawley, is that the Chinese are bad actors bent on world domination. We were never going to be able to make them be like us'
Nixon in his 1978 book, "The Real War" pointed this out. He said China will never be our ally.....but they can be a neighbor. They crave our Capitol, use it as a carrot on a stick, lower for good behavior, higher if bad. Bill Clinton gave them the carrot the stick and the string and we got the shaft while he got rich. Now can we get FACTS like this into the history books?
Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy resets the physical readiness failures for blue jackets to keep as many in uniform as possible due to the current recruiting quagmire. The real alarm bells will start ringing when the sea/shore rotation is changed just to keep combatants and their logistical support vessels at sea. That'll be a real morale boost...
https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/02/18/navy-drops-physical-fitness-requirement-offers-travel-for-abortions-n531582
Look on the positive side, DJL. Those ships won't need to take on so much ballast! In my Navy time, there was only one fat guy on our ship, and he was a cook. He made the best bacon and eggs in the fleet, so we let him live.
An idiotic idea. The scandal we should be concerned about is how weak, badly led, and ill-equipped the US military is. We can't take on Russia OR China much less the old fantasy defense objectives of a two front war.
Will our moronic politicians and MICs make outrageous statements? That's the only kind they make. American elites are uneducated arrogant bullies. The only color revolution they are now capable of is here at home against the American people. The Ukrainian fiasco the Jukrainian neocons have pushed us into is the last gasp of the Pox America visited upon the world since the collapse of the USSR. Hungary can now afford to laugh at the delusions of horseface Samantha Power and her queer Ambassador.
China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. It's already a province of China and that is recognized by the State Department . China will take on Taiwan with its acquiescence when it is damned well ready. And we can't do a damned thing about it.
Hey TL, I'll suggest it's not the dirt they'd be after but the Chip manufacturing. I think it's in the range of 95% of small, high-speed chips are manufactured there... those ones that make all the electronic goodies work so very well. If we (USA) want to truly protect our interests, we'd be moving the fab-plant machinery stateside. Granted, there's a couple plants in construction, I believe eventually those machines will be moved to them. Problem is, the Chinese can't make those chips and they know they're absolutely necessary - from Iphones to military specialty equipment. My opinion is that's the prize and while Ukraine goes on, it'll be when the CCP thinks they'll lose those fab plants. May be that's why those machines aren't being moved: might be the trigger for what our armed forces can not handle. Best to you sir! (WRH)
Dear WRH - the shift is already well underway: TSMC (the major semiconductor powerhouse from Taiwan) is already constructing *two* large leading edge chip fabrication plants in Phoenix AZ; Intel has a large and quickly expanding footprint (many chip fab modules already) in Phoenix with an enormous facility planned and in works now for Ohio; Samsung has a chip factory in Texas and is also growing there. Easier and net net cost effective to not move machinery of that type, but to just build anew. Most chips used in the world are "legacy" (older) technology nodes (bigger feature sizes). The advanced stuff is largely for cell phones, graphics cards, personal and business computing and is dwarfed by other chip products in sheer number of parts.
Mainland China has struggled mightily (>15 yrs) with getting the hang of advanced chip making - the key issue is the innovation that comes from freedom of thought and business maneuver. A take-over of Taiwan would have surprising unintended consequences, to be sure
Good info Bruce, thank you! I think a specific, important point is the sub-10nm chip manufacturing really only resides successfully (thus far) with TSMC in Taiwan. While the obvious benefactor we all know is our Cell phones, the Military applications are huge. China gets over 60% of TSMC products: altho' I've not seen recent numbers and specifically if the 3&2nm chips are going there. I mentioned Intel - they have not been able to do well in the sub-10nm chip arena. Minor aside, I was part of the construction of 2 Intel fab plants (Hillsboro, Oregon) altho' not the techy part... 38,000 tons of rebar hauled there... however that gives me no knowledge of current tech successes.
I do look forward to such manufacturing being stateside: jobs and so forth benefit especially. The machinery aspect I mentioned is because of this being commercial, proprietary tech owned by TSMC along with the ability to reproduce the machines capable to manufacture those chips being quite difficult. Granted, moving is expensive but moving proven equipment has it's perks.
Thanks for the discourse and info. I enjoy learning here in "Marks World"! (WRH)
Yes. Good example of why this scare talk by Hawley--big turnoff for me with regard to his basic integrity--that China will imminently "invade" Taiwan (which the US recognizes as part of China) and then sail their fleet to CA and the Gulf of Mexico is beyond despicable hysteria mongering: it's also an insult to anyone with an IQ above room temp. I'm all for America taking control of its own tech and critical manufacturing needs to the extent possible. There's no reason why that should involve starting wars around the world or even continual war mongering talk for domestic political purposes.
What's difficult is the lost ability to trust anyone.
I'll go with Just Mind our own dang business! (WRH)
(Apologies Mark: I was typing and posting just as you were).
Hello to Mark and your great readership,
Joseph's comment below reminds me of what our Founding Fathers attempted to make part of this country's basic tenants of -forgive my paraphrase attempting brevity here- minding our own damn business. There have been times our call to arms to assist others can be seen as necessary- I don't mean to declare that the US should be an absolute separatist state. *However, between Neocons and their ilk and what best I can frame Senator Hawley's speech representing of a Neo-Neocon opposition, peace is not a primary consideration. Why are we so imperialistic, to use Mark's suggestion, to operate on the 'world-cop' pretense?
I'll submit, our leaning into conflict while off-shoring the very core of our past strength (manufacturing in particular) has reduced our ability to even protect our own citizenry. How many feel it's a good idea to go for a walk in your local, larger-city downtown regions after dark? With due care, of course, not to cross into the wrong neighborhood or to be out too late we enjoy some marginal freedoms other parts of the world would be pleased with. A simple fact is we need to come back home, work on our own country's ills (yeah, from the borders to inner-cities, there's a lot to be addressed) while bringing back some pretty basic, yet really, really important stuff like, how about Medicines? And safe Streets? And true, originalist law enforcement whilst eliminating the fascist -yes I think the appropriate word- Alphabet organizations that have been usurped as Stalinist-like agents of the democrat party? The need for a CIA may have existed in the Cold War era; how so today? Our FBI has lost it's way (sorry Mark, not intentionally personal). Our military, for goodness sakes, is a Woke force to be reckoned with! Those enemy country Social-Justice-Warriors don't stand a chance with our amazing, but wasted, technology and war-making machine-stuff. Sorry if we can't recruit volunteer members anymore, but the war we can fight and win won't happen anyways.
How can it happen that we might return to those old-fashioned Constitutional Government roots? Where are the statesmen? (sorry, States[gender-fluid pronoun goes here]). Nuclear fallout won't check those zir/it pronouns before wrecking it's destruction on you. And, for whatever reason, that remains all too possible an outcome with our War-Making orientation of leadership.
And the band plays on. (WRH)
I saw Shryver's Tweet last night & was wondering what it was about. With your clarification, Mark, worse than I could've imagined. Hawley is off his rocker! When do elected officials think about taking care of USA?
Peace. Let’s talk about peace. These war mongers make me sick. In my eighty years we’ve been constantly at war. Stop it.
There's a lot of issues that do not make prima facie sense in this war. Can someone shed light on why the Ukraine leadership continues to pour soldiers into what evidently will become untenable positions? Even against the supposed advice of the US. Does Z think that the more men die, the more pressure there is on NATO to join in? The Russian forces demonstrated the practicality of withdrawing in order to live to fight another day. This strategy passed down from Z, if you can call it that, is so bad that the Ukrainians, or so it is reported, are grabbing men off the streets to throw them into the meat grinder. Why would the collective West continue to support such a mad regime? Do really they want to annihilate the Ukrainians? The big offensive hasn't started yet. Absolute folly.
The Ukrainians are cannon fodder for the Neocons. The goal is not for Ukraine to win and be a strong independent nation--they want Ukraine to be absolutely under Neocon thumbs. The goal for now is to harm Russia by inflicting heavy losses. At that point Russia can be dismembered, but Ukraine will simply be another dismembered part of what used to be imperial Russia and the Soviet Union.
It's a question I've wondered about, too. They have struck at such shipments closer to the front lines, but not deep in the rear. Various rationales have been offered--such as avoiding civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Also because while the SMO was in effect, the idea was of limited military action. This is a big concern going into what's being predicted--the Big Offensive. Will Russia target NATO directly? Say, AWACS planes, command and control in Poland? Only time will tell. Putin make his big speech Tues or Wed, I believe.
Apparently Russian flights, deep into Ukraine, are becoming possible. Their slow, Soviet-style artillery war is present focus, I think, but they're not standing still, air assault wise. Biden promised more Anti-Air equipment today (Monday) likely because of all the other stuff failing. AWAC issue: Russia has counters to that coming if not already happening.
Steve, I take your point about some of Hawley's better actions. However, if you are in Beijing right now, you aren't going to see this as anything other as another sabre-rattling speech against the CCP. I'm not sure if that is going to head off the war-mongers.
He's a smart guy and I've liked things he's said and done. Not this.
Mark's cool and objective analysis brings out the best in commentators. We're privileged to have him! As for the US, as a Brit, I still have tremendous admiration for the traditional American character. You seem to have a zip and a zest that we tired Euros lost a long time ago. Like most of my generation, I grew up on a diet of American westerns and pop culture, good and bad. It has always had a special place for me. However, I still don't think that it can survive in its current form. I'd be very happy to be proven wrong on this by you American commentators on the blog, but I see some kind of breakup as the only solution. This will be messy and probably violent, but it might lead to something better than what we have now. What is for sure, there is no solution coming from DC or a Man on A White Horse. Now have at me, you damned colonials, and show me where I'm wrong! :)
Hi Steghorn21 - my experience with tech business in the UK and EU leads me to a mild contrarian comment = I see enormous zest zip and creative innovation in that demographic. The politics/diplomacy may be shaggy (and the USA is - other than under PDJT - better?), but the zeitgeist on the street seems to this observer to be robust
I think the Book of Revelation is probably spot on. However, no-one knows for sure. I feel that many Christians read it and then become very fatalistic. What's the point of fighting if it's all determined beforehand? We need to keep fighting even if we lose.
I want to second your appreciation for Mr. Waulk, the commentators and yourself as well. So what is there for me to add? Only what President Trump said in January, 2020. We no longer have a country. I have a very low opinion of FDR as a President and a person, but he had his fireside chats. Hollywood and the media were our friends, and inspired us during the War. Now they and the government have lost the public trust.
Habeas corpus originated in English law in 1166, and I have never heard of anybody in America being held without charges and not having the right to a speedy trial until just recently. Our Fourth Amendment guarantees against uinjustified searches and siezures, and now not even a former President and his wife have this protection. Lawyer-client sonfidentiality, and even Grand Jury confidentiality no longer exists, to the extent that when records are obtained they will be published in the morning papers. But have no fear, if someone has illegally abused the public trust or committed a crtime that benefits the ruling class, they will face no prosecution and even be rewarded.
Our government no longer protects us and our property, and will not allow us to do so. An elderly rancher is not allowed to take care of his elderly wife due to excessive bail while being held on suspicion of having killed an illegal, while armed robbers in our cities are daily being released without bail. It would seem that our government is determined to rule by intimidation. The point I am making is that it is not only the corruption , the incompetence and the utter failure of our present government in so many respects, and there are those that might ague otherwise, but the undeniable fact that for many and maybe most Americans the biggest crisis is the crisis of confidence we now have in our government, and even the rule of law.
Hello perle (I'll go all WRH [🙂] on you and note that is a marvelous and intriguing handle) - hoosanas on appreciation for Mr Wauck's blog environment. On adding two more cents to the dialogue, I'll offer two comments. It appears our USA military has been signalling for months lowered expectations on kinetic involvement in a PRC-Taiwan fight (and I just don't see the upside for PRC taking that step); I don't see Zhou or Turtle or Thoroughly-Modern-Miley (hat tip to Mark Steyn) going that route. The other comment is a prediction on the coming European humiliation coming to the USA. The Ukraine war will resolve along Russian terms and the USA will be (rightly) the article tossed under the bus. EU will turn to Russia, will re-think NATO engagement, and except for the UK, solidly put distance between themselves and the USA. Watch the turn solidify as Russia offers to help the EU with their immigration problems.
We might to agree with people like FDR, Kennedy, or Carter, but I have the feeling that these guys at least loved their country. Obama, Biden? They only love themselves and their bank balances.
Hawley reminds me of a political version of Victor Davis Hanson: a fundamentally decent human being who, as Mark says above, hasn't quite grasped the new zeitgeist. He's still a bit of a citnav who thinks that if we read the Constitution very slowly to the leftists and globalists, they'll all calm down.
I've suggested today about Taiwan Semi-conductor being the real issue. This link is from Dec 2021 but paints a good picture. Best to you Pete! (WRH)
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-chips/
Yep.
That was the Chinese plan until we started goading them with stupid provocations. Now Austen wants US bases back in the Philippines.
G' mornin S'21,
Reviewing all this I was struck how today's 'leadership' fails not just to understand President Reagan' "Peace Through Strength" but does not possess, that is -totally fails to understand- the fundamental Truth that a warrior trains hard, works to strengthen them self, prepares intently and intentionally - not TO kill - but so we might not have to. There seems a serious disconnect therein with our military leadership of today (*post Obama Purge not coincidental) and the abject lack of experience/skill/leadership of our current presidential administration. The insanity of World Group-think' draws them right in. Make having Russia be 'Enemy #1' a requirement to excuse the whole cabal; Military/Industrial complex through stupid power-mad leadership. Who then use human citizens as fodder to operate and execute their mad schemes. Best at ya Steghorn21! (WRH)
Hey Pete, I suggest that how Hong Kong has worked out will diminish any yearnings of reunification from within Taiwan.
There's a huge reason you hear from biden "We're fighting for Democracy" - be it for Ukraine or against those represented by the J6 insurrectionists... once tasted, anything other than freedom is a most bitter pill. Such a cry 'to remain free' is fairly common amongst those of us who regret where THIS country's 'democracy' sits: the biden siren-call is an obvious diversion but such words will incite many to agree with the declarant. G'day sir! (WRH)
Hey Pete,
Except for a rather small, if important fact; 3nm (let alone 2nm) chips are not being successfully produced commercially, excepting in Taiwan. Very limited inroads are being made, however Intel is suffering significant manufacturing issues and massive producer NVidia uses, yep, TSMC 3 and 2 nm chips for their products.
I agree with you that such manufacturing needs be done stateside. I believe those valuable processes were to be brought into Arizona, significantly by moving the existing equipment from Taiwan.
I know not what CCP will do, of course. However, if Russia decides to take down satellites, which the US will respond to by doing the same to theirs, China will be extremely leveraged to either take over the Taiwan plants, or even in destroying them will have their existing satellite fleet with Russian and US replacements very slow occurring and difficult to get orbiting.
My own conclusions are fairly lacking, however what's apparently being proven is the USA's inability to truly, effectively fight China - particularly if we remain in Ukraine with NATO. I enjoy our discussions-thanks! (WRH)
Dear WRH - ummm, nah, the semiconductor ecosystem is truly world-wide and has lots of moving parts. Your points on advanced semiconductor process nodes are 'over-weight'. A take over would absolutely cause a noticeably major set of disruptions, but believe you me, serious companies using/making/supporting these components do think through recovery/adjust scenarios = if covid has taught that ecosystem anything, it is how to adjust. Bottom line, absolutely not something for the USA to get into a shooting war over, the good Senator is not offering a helpful narrative.