News Of The Day: Hamas Launches Strike Into Israel

By “strike” we include missile or rocket attacks—please don’t ask me the difference—but, more importantly an actual ground strike from Gaza into Israel amounting to an invasion of sorts. So far Hamas forces have taken control of at least seven Israeli settlements, including—at last report—Netivot, a city of 47,000 people. These are reports I’ve seen on the internet, so further clarification will doubtless be forthcoming.

Our main concern for now is the motivation. Nobody expects Hamas to go toe to toe with the IDF in open country, so the goals of the ground attacks must be strictly limited. The most plausible explanation I’ve seen for the strategy is probably twofold: 1) take Israeli prisoners, to be returned to Gaza and held as hostages—this appears to have already been accomplished; 2) establish control over several Israeli towns and hold those populated areas hostage in a fight to the death, or something like that. The IDF will be unlikely to launch heavy strikes into a town like Netivot, where the population is 99.9% Jewish. Hamas could dig in and await the IDF assault. The result could be a prolonged and costly urban battle. One assumes that the planning for this operation has been prolonged and meticulous.

The larger concern is whether the goal of this Hamas attack is to spark a major regional conflagration, pitting the US and Israel against most of the other countries in the region—whether actively or passively. A key to watch for in that regard is whether Hezbollah enters the fray. That should tell the story. But further escalations—such as Iranian mining of the Straits of Hormuz could follow, if a major confrontation is the aim. The sense of this is evident: The militaries of the collective West are overstretched, drawn down, and unprepared for such a conflict. They are also economically more vulnerable than ever to a stoppage of the oil flow. What this could mean for the Neocon war on, well, on most of the world it seems, is the question. The US has attempted to bait Russia by triggering unrest in rim countries surrounding Russia, but if the US is drawn into this conflict to any substantial degree, US global strategy could be pretty much up for grabs. These are all bigger picture considerations.

For now we can only await developments. Here are a few accounts of action thus far. If you follow the links there are some videos which I can’t embed here:

This is a long thread with lots of video:

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1710588330423783925

DD Geopolitics

@DD_Geopolitics

BREAKING: As of now, the following Israeli settlements have a heavy presence of Palestinian fighters:

Nir Oz, Nirim, Ein Hashlosha, Kisufim, Be'eri, Nahal Oz, Kfar Aza, Mefalsim and Netiv Hasara.

Some sources are saying they are under Palestinian control but we cannot confirm that.

6:02 AM · Oct 7, 2023

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@GeromanAT

IDF said it is now taking back the taken settlements around Gaza - and it will be over in some hours...

5:29 AM · Oct 7, 2023

This thread is in Italian. I’m simply going to insert the self explanatory map, which is useful. I’m guessing that the major goal of Hamas is to control all or a major part of Netivot:

https://twitter.com/Majakovsk73/status/1710599639592755336

While the earlier tweet claimed that the IDF was already re-establishing control, I suspect the reality is that that will be delayed by the need to prepare against Hezbollah involvement:

OSINTdefender

@sentdefender

The Israeli Defense Force appears to be in the process of Mobilizing near the Border with Syria and the Golan Heights with Defense Channels stating that Residents should not be Alarmed by the sounds of Explosions and Gunfire as well as the movement of Heavy Military Equipment through the Streets.

7:44 AM · Oct 7, 2023

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@GeromanAT

Around 5000 rockets have been fired the last hours - it is reported that Iron Dome is down.

1:40 AM · Oct 7, 2023

In the map here Netivot is the red dot. I will be watching to see whether Netivot is the chosen site for Hamas to force the IDF into attacking a hostage Israeli population center. That would seem to be a logical strategy for an invasion by an irregular force.

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@GeromanAT

Hamas militants are fighting in another large Israeli city - Netivot (about 40,000 population). The Israeli army is still showing complete helplessness in the face of enemy flying squads attacking Israeli cities. They were unable to regain control of any of the settlements occupied by Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. Analytics by Yuri Podolyaki

6:34 AM · Oct 7, 2023

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@GeromanAT

The first minutes of Operation Al-Aqsa Storm on the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip. The militants can be seen blowing up the wire fences and getting inside on motorcycles. Afterwards, they pull out the still living crew from the tank that was shot down by the drone.

(MASH)

5:16 AM · Oct 7, 2023

Here, note the time—earlier than some of the previous tweets:

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@GeromanAT

IDF air strikes on Gaza have started.

IDF SOF are now trying to take back lost settlements.

We will find out soon how well prepared that all out attack was - and if Palestinians can hold ground or even move further on.

The more important question is still - will Hezbollah join the battle - and if yes - when and how.

Also important is how people in other areas will react.

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5:04 AM · Oct 7, 2023

Again, check the time—very early:

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@GeromanAT

Russian TG (Yuri) Report: #Israel #Palestine So far, the offensive of Hamas and Islamic Jihad is progressing successfully. Israel confirms the loss of control over SEVEN settlements. in the south of the country. Moreover, the tactics used by the enemy are very reasonable and are based on the experience of recent conflicts (the use of mobile groups, reconnaissance using UAVs, etc.). The Arabs do not need to waste energy on defense (their rear is strong and solid). They only employ mobile groups that “tear” the enemy’s defenses in several directions at once, tens of kilometers along the front (and they are able to form their own groups under the cover of the densely built Gaza Strip). Moreover, their advance to the battlefield occurs in a matter of minutes, which does not allow them to be beaten on the march. And UAVs allow them to completely control the movement of IDF units and attack them in the most vulnerable places. The Israelis, on the contrary, need to cover the border everywhere and cannot leave a single settlement unprotected. Therefore, until the entire perimeter of the front is completely blocked, attacks by Arab troops will continue successfully. I think that Israel needs at least half a day to take control of the situation. And then, control will be incomplete. Judging by the footage on the network, the IDF’s losses now already amount to dozens of people killed and captured, at least two tanks, and more than 10 units of light armored vehicles.

4:08 AM · Oct 7, 2023

Austin says the US will give Israel “everything it needs”. Q: Will the US take back the 155mm shells it gave to Ukraine from Israel, or have they already been used up?

Latest reports are that Hamas has overrun several IDF “bases” near Gaza. Not sure what a base is in this context, but it does appear that tanks and other equipment have been captured.

Most importantly, reports from Egypt claim Hezbollah will enter the conflict if Israel “invades” Gaza. I take that to mean a ground invasion, since air strkes have been underway already. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait “hold Israel responsible,” so lines are being drawn.

DD Geopolitics

@DD_Geopolitics

BREAKING: Another Israeli base on the border with Gaza was captured, leaving behind several Merkava tanks

7:41 AM · Oct 7, 2023

Lord Bebo

@MyLordBebo

BREAKING: Egyptian negotiators notified Israel that in the event of a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, Lebanese Hezbollah would enter the war.

8:12 AM · Oct 7, 2023